Public opinion landscape international affairs 8.12.14

International Affairs: American Public Opinion Landscape August, 2014

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.  Current Poli.cal Landscape…………….……………………………….……2 2.  The Gaza Conflict….………..…………………………………………………….7 3.  Russia and Ukraine…………………………………………………………..…15 4.  Iraq……………………………………………………………………………………..25 5.  Afghanistan…………………………………………………………………………34

Slide

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CURRENT POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

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FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS FACING THE U.S.

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July 7-‐10, 2014

Immigra.on/Illegal aliens 17%

Dissa.sfac.on with government 16%

Economy in general 15%

Unemployment / Jobs 14%

Healthcare 8%

Federal budget deficit 6%

Educa.on 5%

Ethics/Moral/Religious decline 4%

July 7-‐10, 2014

Foreign aid / focus overseas 3%

Lack of military defense 1%

Interna.onal issues, problems 1%

Terrorism 1%

Wars/War (nonspecific)/Fear of war 1%

Na.onal security 1%

War/conflict between Middle East na.ons 1%

Situa.on/War in Afghanistan 1%

Situa.on in Iraq *

Situa.on in Syria *

What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?

Source: Gallup Poll, July 7 -‐ 10, 2014

* Indicates a number between 0 and 1%

OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL ON FOREIGN POLICY CONTINUES TO SLIDE

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Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, Latest Poll as of August 11, 2014

APPROVAL %

Overall approval 43%

Healthcare 41%

The economy 39%

Foreign policy 36%

Job Approval on Foreign Policy worse than

Economy and Healthcare

Disapprove 53.3%

Approve 35.6%

Job Approval on Foreign Policy

FOREIGN POLICY NO LONGER THE PRESIDENT’S BIGGEST STRENGTH

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56% 54% 48% 46% 46% 47% 48% 50% 49%

40% 40% 36%

Feb 2009 Aug 2009 Feb 2010 Aug 2010 Feb 2011 Aug 2011 Feb 2012 Aug 2012 Feb 2013 Aug 2013 Feb 2014 Aug 2014

Economy Health Care Overall Foreign Policy

Job Approval on Foreign Policy was his biggest strength; Now it

is his lowest ra.ng

Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, Latest Poll as of August 6, 2014

-‐14%

Job Approval on…

AND A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS DISSATISFIED WITH AMERICA’S ROLE IN THE WORLD

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Very sa.sfied, 6%

Somewhat sa.sfied, 29%

Somewhat dissa.sfied, 33%

Very dissa.sfied, 29%

Not sure, 3%

I’d like to get your opinion about how things are going in some areas of our society today… When it comes to America’s role in the world are you very sa.sfied, somewhat sa.sfied, somewhat dissa.sfied, or very dissa.sfied with how things are going today?

62% are dissatisfied with America’s role in the world

Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey, July 30 – August 3, 2014

THE GAZA CONFLICT

THE CONFLICT BETWEEN ISRAEL AND HAMAS IS IMPORTANT TO A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS AND THEY DISAPPROVE OF HOW THE PRESIDENT IS HANDLING IT

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Source: AP-‐GfK Poll, July 24-‐28, 2014

42%

28% 29%

Extremely/Very important

Moderately Important

Slightly/Not at all important

How important are each of the following issues to you personally? [The conflict between Israel and Hamas]

Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Barak Obama is handling [The conflict between Israel and Hamas]

Approve 18%

Lean toward approving

19%

Don't lean either way

2%

Lean toward disapproving

19%

Disapprove 41%

HALF OF AMERICANS SYMPATHIZE WITH ISRAEL OVER THE PALESTINIANS

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Source: Pew Research Center Poll, July 8 – 14, 2014

51%

14%

3%

15%

Israel Pales.nians Both Neither

In the dispute between Israel and the Pales.nians, which side do you sympathize with more: Israel or the Pales.nians?

*Unsure/Refused not shown.

HOWEVER, A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS THINK THAT WE SHOULD TREAT BOTH SIDES EQUALLY

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When it comes to the conflict between the Israelis and the Pales.nians, do you think that the United States should support the Israelis more than the Pales.nians, support the Pales.nians more than the Israelis, or should the U.S. treat Israelis and the Pales.nians the same and not support one more than the other?

Favor Israelis over

Pales.nians 34%

Favor Pales.nians over Israelis

4%

Treat Israelis and the

Pales.nians the same 53%

Not sure 9%


THIS YEAR, FAVORABILITY OF ISRAEL HAS REACHED BOTH ITS PEAK AND ITS LOWEST POINT IN 5 YRS.

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Source: CNN/ORC Poll, July 18 – 20, 2014

69% 67% 65% 72%

60%

30% 32% 33%

24%

38%

Apr 2009 Jun 2010 May 2011 Jan 2014 Jul 2014

Favorable

Unfavorable

Next, I’d like your overall opinion of some foreign countries. Is your overall opinion of each of the following very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable? [ISRAEL]

*”Unsure” not shown.

A PLURALITY BLAMES HAMAS, BUT MORE BLAME ISRAEL OR BOTH THAN IN PAST CONFLICTS

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12% 12%

19%

42% 41% 40%

6% 5%

14%

2006 2009 2014

Israel

Hamas/Hezbollah

Both

Over the past few weeks there has been a significant military conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Who do you think is most responsible for the current violence?

+7

+9


OF THOSE WHO HAVE AN OPINION, MORE ARE DISSATISFIED WITH HOW THE U.S. IS DEALING WITH THE CONFLICT

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When it comes to how the United States is dealing with the conflict between Hamas and Israel are you sa.sfied or dissa.sfied with our ac.ons or do you not know enough to have an opinion one way or the other? [IF DISSATISFIED] And is this because the United States has gopen too involved or not involved enough?

Sa.sfied 17%

Don't know enough to

have an opinion 35%

Not sure 3%

Dissa.sfied, too involved

Dissa.sfied, not involved enough

Dissa.sfied 45%


17%

28%

ULTIMATELY, A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE A LASTING PEACE AGREEMENT

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Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll July 28 – 31, 2014

Do you believe that the Israelis and Pales.nians will or will not be able to form a las.ng peace agreement that will work?

Will 23%

Wil not 62%

Unsure 15%

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RUSSIA AND UKRAINE

THREE IN FOUR AMERICANS FEEL THAT WHAT HAPPENS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE IS VERY IMPORTANT

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31% 36%

16% 13%

48%

35%

8% 5%

Very important Somewhat important Not too important Not at all important

April July

How important to the interests of the United States is what happens between Russia and Ukraine?

+17 83% of Americans think that it is important to the interests

of the U.S.


HOWEVER, A PLURALITY IS DISSATISFIED WITH HOW THE U.S. IS DEALING WITH THE SITUATION

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When it comes to how the United States is dealing with the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine are you sa.sfied or dissa.sfied with our ac.ons or do you not know enough to have an opinion one way or the other? [IF DISSATISFIED] And is that because the United States has gopen too involved or not involved enough?

Sa.sfied 23%


have an opinion 32%

Not sure 2%



Dissa.sfied 43%


15%

28%

HALF OF AMERICANS THINK THE SANCTIONS ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH

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Do you think the sanc.ons the United States has imposed in response to Russia’s annexa.on of Crimea have been:

Too strong 5%

About right 38% Not strong

enough 53%

Refused 5%


AND HALF OF AMERICANS SUPPORT EXPANDING ECONOMIC SANCTIONS

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Given Russia’s annexa.on of Crimea and con.nued support of the Ukrainian separa.st movement, would you support, oppose or neither support nor oppose the U.S. taking each of the following ac.ons:

Support Neither Oppose

Expanding sanc.ons against Russia so that they target the Russian economy, including its energy businesses

52% 34% 11%

Providing military support to na.ons if they are targeted by Russia 21% 41% 35%

Providing financial support to na.ons if they are targeted by Russia 21% 42% 33%

*Answers for Refused/Not answered not shown.


NEARLY HALF OF AMERICANS SEE RUSSIA AS A SERIOUS PROBLEM; ONE QUARTER SEES RUSSIA AS AN ADVERSARY

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All things considered, which of these descrip.ons comes closest to your view of Russia today. Do you think Russia is:

18% 15%

18%

26% 26%

48%

32% 36%

43%

49%

28%

42% 40%

22%

15%

Sept 2008 Oct 2009 Oct 2013 Mar 2014 Jul 2014

An adversary

A serious problem but not an adversary

Not much of a problem


MOST AMERICANS THINK THE CRASH WAS LIKELY CAUSED BY A SEPARATIST GROUP IN UKRAINE

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Based on what you have read or heard, do you think it is very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely or very unlikely that the missile that caused the airplane crash was launched by a separa.st group in Ukraine?

Very likely 56%

Somewhat likely 24%

Somewhat unlikely 6%

Very unlikely 8% No

Opinion 7% 80% think that it

was likely caused by a separa.st group

Source: CNN/ORC Poll, July 18-‐20, 2014

AND HALF OF AMERICANS THINK THAT RUSSIA IS INDIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CRASH

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Just your best guess – based on what you have read or heard, do you think Russia is directly responsible for the crash of the airplane, indirectly responsible, or not responsible at all?

34%

51%

11%

Directly responsible Indirectly responsible Not responsible at all

Source: CNN/ORC Poll, July 18-‐20, 2014 *No opinion not shown

A PLURALITY OF AMERICANS ARE DISSATISFIED WITH THE U.S.’S ACTIONS IN DEALING WITH THE CRASH

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When it comes to how the United States is dealing with the commercial airline shot down in Ukraine are you sa.sfied or dissa.sfied with our ac.ons or do you not know enough to have an opinion one way or the other? [IF DISSATISFIED] And is that because the United States has gopen too involved or not involved enough?

Sa.sfied 26%


have an opinion 33%

Not sure 4%



Dissa.sfied 37%


7%

30%

IF RUSSIA IS SHOWN TO BE RESPONSIBLE -‐ MOST AMERICANS THINK THAT THE U.S. SHOULD RESPOND WITH SANCTIONS

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If there is clear evidence that Russia is responsible for the airplane crash, what do you think the United States should do in response:

19%

71%

9%

No ac.on

Sanc.ons

Military Ac.on

Source: CNN/ORC Poll, July 18-‐20, 2014 *No opinion not shown.

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IRAQ

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A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS CONTINUES TO BELIEVE THAT THE WAR IN IRAQ WAS A MISTAKE

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Source: Quinnipiac University Poll, June 24-‐30, 2014

39% 37% 35% 38%

33% 36% 36% 36%

32%

55% 57% 59% 55%

62% 58% 60% 60% 61%

Apr 2007 Jun 2007 Aug 2007 Oct 2007 May 2008 Nov 2008 Feb 2009 Oct 2011 Jun 2014

Wrong thing

Right thing

Do you think going to war with Iraq in 2003 was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

*Unsure/No Answer not shown.

AND A MAJORITY THINKS HISTORY WILL JUDGE THE WAR IN IRAQ AS A FAILURE

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Just your best guess, how do you think history will judge the war in Iraq?

78% think it will be judged a failure

1%

18%

55%

23%

Complete Success More of a success than a failure

More of a failure than a success

Complete failure

*Refused/Not Answered not shown.

MOST AMERICANS THINK IT WAS THE RIGHT DECISION TO WITHDRAW TROOPS FROM IRAQ

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Overall, do you think the United States did the right thing or the wrong thing by withdrawing most of its troops from Iraq in 2011?

Right thing 70%

Wrong thing 27%

Refused 3%

A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS THINK THAT GETTING INVOLVED IN THE CURRENT CONFLICT IS NOT IN THE NATIONAL INTEREST

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56%

39%

Not in the na.onal interest

In the na.onal interest

Do you think it is in the na.onal interest of the United States to be involved in the conflict in Iraq, or not?

*Unsure/No answer not shown.

THEREFORE, A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS OPPOSE SENDING GROUND TROOPS BACK INTO IRAQ

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Support 29%

Oppose 63%

Unsure 8%

Do you support or oppose the U.S. sending ground troops back into Iraq to help the Iraqi government defeat Islamic militants?

HOWEVER, A PLURALITY OF AMERICANS ARE DISSATISFIED WITH HOW THE U.S. IS HANDLING THE RISE OF ISIS

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When it comes to how the United States is dealing with the rise of the terrorists group Isis in Iraq are you sa.sfied or dissa.sfied with our ac.ons or do you not know enough to have an opinion one way or the other? [IF DISSATISFIED] And is this because the United States has gopen too involved or not involved enough?

Sa.sfied 14%

Don't know enough to have an opinion

40%

Not sure 4%



Dissa.sfied 42%

Source: NBC News/WallStreet Journal Survey, July 30 – August 3, 2014

12%

30%

AND AMERICANS ARE DIVIDED ON AIR STRIKES AGAINST THE SUNNI INSURGENTS

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45% 46%

8%

Support Oppose No opinion

Overall, do you support or oppose U.S. airstrikes against the Sunni insurgents in Iraq?

Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, June 18-‐22, 2014

MOST AMERICANS DO NOT THINK THAT A DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENT WILL BE ESTABLISHED

33


Very/somewhat

likely 16%

Not too/not at all likely 80%

Refused/Not Answered

3%

How likely is it that a stable, democra.c government will be established in Iraq?

AFGHANISTAN

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A MAJORITY THINKS THE SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN IS IMPORTANT AND DISAPPROVES OF HOW THE PRESIDENT IS HANDLING IT

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40%

31% 28%

Extremely/Very Important

Moderately Important

Slightly/Not Important

How important are each of the following issues to you personally? [The Situa.on in Afghanistan]

Approve 22%

Lean toward approving

15%

Don't lean either way

2%

Lean towards

disapproving 15%

Disapprove 45%

Overall, do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Barak Obama is handling [The Situa.on in Afghanistan]

MOST AMERICANS THINK HISTORY WILL REMEMBER THE AFGHAN WAR AS A FAILURE

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2%

21%

51%

23%

Complete success More of a successs than failure

More of a failure than success

Complete failure

Just your best guess, how do you think history will judge the war in Afghanistan?

74%


AND MOST AMERICANS SAY THE U.S. DID THE RIGHT THING BY PLANNING TO WITHDRAW

37


Right thing 70%

Wrong thing 26%

Refused 4%

Overall, do you think the United States is doing the right thing or the wrong thing by planning to withdraw most of its troops from Afghanistan in 2014?

HOWEVER, HALF OF AMERICANS NOW THINK THE SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN WILL GET WORSE

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31%

19% 22%

16% 11%

23%

29% 31% 32%

50% 44% 49%

46% 51%

37%

Dec 2009 Aug 2010 Sept 2010 Dec 2013 Jul 2014

Get beSer

Over the next year, do you expect the situa.on in Afghanistan to:

Get worse

Stay about the same

+18


AND ULTIMATELY, MOST AMERICANS THINK THAT IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT A DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENT WILL BE ESTABLISHED

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Very likely 2%

Somewhat likely 18%

Not too likely 50%

Not at all likely 28%

Refused/Not answered

2%

How likely is it that a stable, democra.c government will be established in Afghanistan?

78% say it is not too or not at all likely

that a stable democra.c

government will be established

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GPG Research

GPG has a full-‐scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualita.ve and quan.ta.ve public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communica.on strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor cri.cal issues and track the effec.veness of strategic communica.on campaigns.

GPG has a deep experience conduc.ng research about complex interna.onal affairs topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innova.ve, projec.ve techniques to uncover key insights. The result is ac.onable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.

For more informaUon about this presentaUon or to find out more about GPG’s research capabiliUes contact:

Jason Boxt ([email protected])

News & Politics

Public opinion landscape international affairs 8.12.14