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International Affairs: AmericanPublic Opinion LandscapeNOVEMBER 2015
PAGE 2
TA B L E O F C O N T ENTSSlide
Current Political Landscape 3
Russia 8
ISIS 13
Iran 18
Refugee Crisis 24
C u r r e n t P o l i t i c a l L a n d s c a p e
Source: Gallup Poll, October 7-11, 2015 PAGE 4
F O R E IG N P O L I CY I S S U ES N O T T H E M O S T I M P O RTANT P R O B LEMS FA C I N G T H E U . S .
Oct 2015
Dissatisfaction with government 16%
Economy in general 13%
Immigration/Illegal aliens 8%
Unemployment/jobs 8%
Guns/Gun control 7%
Healthcare 6%
Ethics/Moral/Religious decline 5%
Federal budget deficit/Federal debt 5%
Crime/Violence 5%
Education 4%
Oct 2015
Terrorism 3%
Foreign policy/ foreign aid / focus overseas 3%
National security 2%
International issues, problems 2%
Situation in Iraq/ISIS 2%
Wars/War (nonspecific)/Fear or war 2%
Middle East conflict 2%
Lack of military defense 2%
*Non-Foreign policy issues below 4% not shown
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate data, Latest Poll as of October 28, 2015 PAGE 5
I N W H AT WA S A S T R O NG S U I T I N H I S 1 S T T E R M , A M E R ICAN S N O W D I S A P PROV E O F O B A M A’ S J O B P E R F ORM ANCE O N F O R E IG N P O L I C Y
Job Approval on Foreign Policy
Disapprove 49.4%
Approve 35.3%
Job Approval on Foreign Policy worse than Economy
and Health CareApproval %
Overall Approval 45%
The Economy 45%
Healthcare 43%
Foreign Policy 40%
Source: FOX News Poll, 9/20-22,2015 – CNN Poll, 9/4-8 – Gallup Poll, 8/5-9 PAGE 6
A M A J O RIT Y O F A M E R I CANS D I S AP PROV E O F T H E WAY B A R A C K O B A M A I S H A N D LI NG VA R I OUS I N T E RNAT ION AL I S S UE S
33% 42% 41%
58% 55% 55%
The situation in Iran Foreign affairs Terrorism
Disapprove
Approve
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling – the situation in Iran, foreign affairs, terrorism?
Source: AP/NORC Poll, June 25 – July 7, 2015 PAGE 7
Do you think the United States should take a more or less active role solving the world’s problems, or is its current role about right?
A more active role, 27%
Its current role is about right, 33%
A less active role, 38%
Don’t know, 2%
P L U R AL ITY O F A M E R IC ANS T H I N K T H E U N I TE D S TATES S H O ULD TA K E A L E S S A C T I VE R O L E I N S O LV ING T H E W O R LD’ S P R O B LE MS
R U S S I A
Source: Gallup Poll, February 8-11, 2015 PAGE 9
S E V E N I N T E N A M E R IC ANS H AV E A N U N FAVOR ABL E O P I N ION O F R U S S IA
Next, I’d like your overall opinion of some foreign countries. What is your overall opinion of [RUSSIA]? Is it very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable?
40%
52%
66%63%
41%
59% 61%58%
53%48%
40%
47%51% 50%
44%
34%24%
53%
42%
27% 26%
52%
35% 33% 35%41%
46%
53%
45%42% 44%
50%
60%70%
Nov-‐00
Mar-‐01
Jul-‐01
Nov-‐01
Mar-‐02
Jul-‐02
Nov-‐02
Mar-‐03
Jul-‐03
Nov-‐03
Mar-‐04
Jul-‐04
Nov-‐04
Mar-‐05
Jul-‐05
Nov-‐05
Mar-‐06
Jul-‐06
Nov-‐06
Mar-‐07
Jul-‐07
Nov-‐07
Mar-‐08
Jul-‐08
Nov-‐08
Mar-‐09
Jul-‐09
Nov-‐09
Mar-‐10
Jul-‐10
Nov-‐10
Mar-‐11
Jul-‐11
Nov-‐11
Mar-‐12
Jul-‐12
Nov-‐12
Mar-‐13
Jul-‐13
Nov-‐13
Mar-‐14
Jul-‐14
Nov-‐14
Source: Gallup Poll, February 8-11, 2015 PAGE 10
R U S S IA N O W S E E N A S U N I T ED S TAT ES’ G R E AT EST E N E M Y
What one country anywhere in the world do you consider to be the United States’ greatest enemy today? [OPEN END]
6%2% 1% 2% 2% 3%
2%
9%
18%
2%
22%
15% 18%
9%
16%10%
16%15%14%
10% 10% 11%
14%16%
23%
20%
12%
8%
14%
31%
26% 25% 25%
32%
16%
9%
38%
22%
22% 21%22%
7%5%
7%8%
Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
Russia
North Korea
China
Iran
Iraq
Source: NBC News / WSJ Survey, October 15-18, 2015 PAGE 11
S E V E N I N T E N A M E R IC ANS H AV E A N U N FAVOR ABL E O P I N ION O F V L A D I MIR P U T I N
Next, we’d like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people – or if you have never heard about them. How about [Vladimir Putin]?
13%
72%
Favorable
Unfavorable
Note: Never heard of and No opinion not shown
Source: CNN Poll, September 4-8, 2015 PAGE 12
A VA S T M A J O RI TY O F A M E R I CANS P E R CEI VE R U S SIA A S A V E R Y O R M O D E RATE LY S E R IO US T H R EAT T O T H E U N I T ED S TAT ES
Very serious threat, 49%
Just a slight threat, 11%
Moderately serious threat, 33%
No threat at all,7%
Would you say that the following [RUSSIA] represent a very serious threat to the United States, a moderately serious threat, just a slight threat, or no threat at all?
82% Believe Russia Represents a
Very or Moderately Serious Threat to the
United States
I S I S
Source: Quinnipiac Poll, Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2015PAGE 14
MAJORITIES OF AMERICANS BELIEVE THE U.S. IS LOSING THE FIGHT AGAINST ISIS AND THAT THINGS ARE GOING BADLY IN IRAQ & SYRIA FOR THE U.S.
Do you think the United States and its allies are winning or losing the fight against ISIS?
In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in its military action against ISIS forces in Iraq and Syria – very well, moderately well, moderately badly, or very badly?
16%
66%
Winning Losing
Note: Unsure results not shown
Well Badly
Total 31%
Total 67%
Moderately, 27%
Very, 4%
Moderately, 36%
Very, 31%
Source: CNN/ORC Poll, October 14-17, 2015
Source: CNN/ORC Poll, October 14-17, 2015 PAGE 15
S E V E N I N T E N A M E R IC ANS T H I N K T H E P R E SI DEN T D O E S N O T H AV E A C L E A R P L A N F O R D E A L IN G W I T H I S I S
27%
71%
2%
Yes, has a clear strategy No, does not have a clear strategy No opinion
Do you think Barack Obama does or does not have a clear plan for dealing with ISIS?
Source: YouGov Poll, September 30 – October 1, 2015 PAGE 16
A M E R IC ANS S U P P ORT A I R S T R I K ES A G A I NST I S I S R AT H ER T H A N S E N DI NG I N G R O U ND T R O OP S
Do you support or oppose U.S. air strikes in Iraq and Syria against ISIS? Do you support or oppose sending U.S. ground troops to fight ISIS?
64% 61%53%
88%
35%26% 28%
59%
Total Democrats Independents Republicans
Air strikes Ground troops
Source: CNN/ORC Poll, October 14-17, 2015 PAGE 17
M A J O RI TY O F A M E R I CAN S A R E AT L E A S T S O M E WHAT W O R RI ED T H AT M I L I TA RY A C T IO N A G A IN ST I S I S W I L L L E A D T O A L A R G E R WA R
How worried are you that the military action against ISIS forces in Iraq and Syria will develop into a larger war that could spread throughout the region and other parts of the world? Would you say you are very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not worried at all?
Total worried:
76%
I R A N
Source: FOX News Poll, September 20-22, 2015 PAGE 19
MAJORITY OF AMERICANS THINK IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL WILL MAKE THE UNITED STATES LESS SAFE
26%
56%
5%
13%
Safer
Less safe
No different
DK/NA
Do you think the agreement on Iran’s nuclear program will make the United States safer or less safe?
10%
22%
46%
80%
59%
32%
1%
9%
6%
9%
11%
16%
Republicans
Independents
Democrats
Safer Less safe No different DK/NA
PAGE 20
Source Question Text Support / Approve
Oppose / Disapprove
FOX NewsOct. 10-12
For reference: If you were in Congress and had to cast an up-or-down vote on the recent deal with Iran that lifts sanctions for ten years in exchange for Iran curtailing its pursuit of a nuclear program over that time period – would you approve or reject the deal?
31% 58%
ABC News/ Washington PostSep. 7-10
As you may know, the U.S. and other countries have announced a deal to lifteconomic sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran agreeing not to produce nuclear weapons. International inspectors would monitor Iran’s facilities, and if Iran is caught breaking the agreement economic sanctions would be imposed again. Do you support or oppose this agreement? (asked of half sample)
51% 41%
ABC News/ Washington PostSep. 7-10
As you may know, the U.S. and other countries have announced a deal to lift economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran agreeing not to produce nuclear weapons. Do you support or oppose this agreement?? (asked of half sample)
45% 44%
CNN/ORCSep. 4-8
Do you think Congress should approve or reject the deal with Iran? 47% 49%Pew Research CenterSep. 3-7
From what you know do you approve or disapproveof the recent agreement on Iran’s nuclear program between Iran, the United States and other nations? 21% 49%
S U P P ORT F O R I R A N N U C LE AR D E A L VA R I ES D E P E NDI NG O N H O W THE Q U E S TI ON I S A S K E D
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 3-7, 2015 PAGE 21
A M A J O RIT Y O F A M E R I CANS H AV E L I T T LE T O N O C O N F ID ENCE T H AT I R A N W I L L U P H O LD T H E T E R MS O F T H E A G R E EME NT
How much confidence do you have that Iran’s leaders will uphold their side of the agreement?
A great deal2%
A fair amount18%
Not too much28%
None at all43%
Unsure/Refused9%
Total with little to no confidence:
71%
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 3-7, 2015 PAGE 22
B U T A S M A L LE R M A J ORI TY O F A M E R ICA NS H AV E L I T T LE T O N O C O N F ID ENCE I N T H E U N I T E D S TATES’ A B I L I TY T O M O N I TOR I R A N
How much confidence do you have in the U.S. and international agencies’ ability to monitor Iran’s compliance with the agreement?
A great deal12%
A fair amount30%
Not too much27%
None at all24%
Unsure/Refused7%
Total with little to no confidence: 51%
Source: CNN Poll, September 4-8,2015 PAGE 23
MAJORITY OF AMERICANS WANT U.S. TO TAKE MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAN IF THE AGREEMENT IS VIOLATED
Suppose Iran violates its terms, if that happens, do you think the U.S. should or should not take military action against Iran?
Should take military
action, 64%
Should not take military action, 34%
No opinion, 2%
R E F U G E E C R I S I S
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 22-27, 2015 PAGE 25
M A J O RI TY O F A M E R I CAN S H AV E H E A R D A L O T A B O U T T H E R E F U GE E C R I SI S A N D A P L U R ALI TY O F A M E R ICA NS T H I NK T H E U . S . S H O U LD B E D O I N G M O R E T O A D D RE SS T H E S I T U ATI ON
How much, if anything, have you heard about large numbers of migrants fleeing violence in Syria and other countries and entering Europe?
A lot, 55% A little, 32%Nothing at all, 12%
More, 44% Less, 19% Doing what it should, 31%
In general, do you think the United States should be doing more, should be doing less, or is the U.S. doing about what it should to address the refugee situation?
Source: Pew Research Center, September 22-27, 2015 PAGE 26
A N D A S L I G H T M A J ORI TY O F A M E R I CAN S A P P RO VE O F T H E U N I T ED S TAT ES’ D E C I SI ON T O I N C R EAS E A C C E PTANC E O F R E F U GE ES
Approve, 51%Disapprove,
45%
Unsure, 4%
69%
51%
30%
29%
43%
67%
2%
5%
3%
Democrats
Independents
Republicans
Approve Disapprove Unsure
In order to help deal with this situation, the United States recently announced it will increase the number of refugees it accepts. All in all, do you approve or disapprove of this decision?
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, September 20-24, 2015 PAGE 27
BUT ALMOST A QUARTER OF AMERICANS THINK WE SHOULD TAKE IN NO ADDITIONAL SYRIAN REFUGEES
Take none at all, 24%
Right amount,
35%
Take fewer, 17%
Take more, 21%
Not sure, 3%
The Obama administration is recommending the United States take in at least ten thousand (10,000) Syrian refugees over the next year. Do you think the United States should – take in more refugees from Syria, take in fewer refugees from Syria – this is about the right amount, or should the United States take no Syrian refugees at all?
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