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http://asia.nikkei.com/magazine/20160901-ASEAN-THE-GREAT-PUZZLE/Viewpoints/Thant-Myint-U-The-
big-picture-beyond-Myanmar-s-peace-process
September 1, 2016 12:00 pm JST
Thant Myint-U: The big picture beyond Myanmar's peace process
A TNLA soldier on guard duty in upper Shan State (Photo by Steve Tickner)
Myanmar's Union Peace Conference in Naypyitaw will almost certainly be a
symbolic success. Nearly all the country's myriad "ethnic armed organizations"
agreed to participate in the national-level peace talks, ongoing between Aug. 31
and Sept. 4 -- including those that signed and many that did not sign last
October's Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement. Notably absent are three groups that
have been fighting the military over the past three years. The military's
commander-in-chief, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, is on the list of attendees,
with State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi, the de facto leader of the new
government and the conference's principal architect. The supporting cast of
hundreds includes people from across Myanmar's political spectrum, as well as
United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.
Shan children at a Shan State Army South-sponsored school in Loi Tai Laeng (Photo by Steve Tickner)
No one expects the conference to achieve a breakthrough. But the symbolism is in
itself important and underlines a real desire on all sides to bring about a peaceful
settlement following almost seven decades of violent conflict. No ethnic armed
organization is promoting secession, and the idea of a federal system of
government -- long advocated by ethnic minority leaders -- is no longer hotly
contested. Aung San Suu Kyi's national and international stature can be a
singular asset to any process going forward. The time is ripe for peace.
But it is what comes next that will be of paramount importance. And what is
needed is a multidimensional strategy that connects complex sets of issues: first,
the future of Myanmar as a multiethnic country; second, the broader democratic
transition; third, peacemaking and peace-building in the actual conflict-affected
areas; fourth, China's interest and influence over its southwestern neighbor; and
fifth, critically, the economy.
An elderly Palaung woman and child in a TNLA-controlled area of Shan State (Photo by Steve Tickner)
MULTIETHNIC DEMOCRACY Since independence from Britain in 1948, one
of Myanmar's principal challenges has been finding a form of government
acceptable to all its many and diverse ethnic communities.
Few now disagree with the devolution of considerable authority, including fiscal
authority, to state or regional levels. The devil will of course be in the details.
Myanmar is not and never has been neatly divided into ethnically based areas.
Smaller minority communities are often intermingled with bigger ones. Getting
both sequencing and timing right will be critical. Until good state institutions are
in place, simply devolving power may only add a new layer of inefficacy and
corruption.
It is also necessary to think out of the box. Millions of people in Myanmar are of
mixed ethnicity (including my own family and most people I know). Migration,
urbanization and a telecommunications revolution are reshaping the country and
will likely reshape identities. Language policies will need to be carefully
reconsidered. Local autonomy may have been an answer in the 1950s, but
devolution can only be a part of the solution today. And any solution can only be
a work in progress, as we have seen even in the most advanced democracies.
Far more straightforward is the related aim of equality. There is no need to wait
for a peace process before moving at maximum speed to end all forms of
discrimination, to make state institutions such as the police, judiciary and civil
service far more inclusive, and to create more equitable economic opportunities
across the country.
A TNLA soldier with a local Palaung man and boy in upper Shan State (Photo by Steve Tickner)
Second is the matter of Myanmar's overall political transition. It is impossible
and unwise to disassociate discussions on peace from the broader debates over
the country's democratic future. And again, there are the challenges of
sequencing. Without a new concept of citizenship and strong liberal institutions,
democracy could slide easily into majoritarian rule by the dominant Bamar
population. Carefully pacing the shift toward democracy and devolution will be
important. Engaging public opinion and civil society will be essential.
Third are the issues around peacemaking and peace-building in conflict-afflicted
areas. Myanmar has been at war with itself for generations. The fighting once
involved communist insurgents as well as ethnic rebels. The situation today is far
from all-out civil war. There have been periods, including over the past few years,
of heavy fighting. In general, though, the confrontations are low-intensity, with
dozens of small clashes each month across an area of northeastern Myanmar,
along the China border, about the size of the U.K. Still, the humanitarian impact
of militarization, instability, displacement and occasional fighting over nearly
seven decades has been enormous.
A Palaung child in a TNLA-controlled village in Shan State (Photo by Steve Tickner)
This is a region of blurry front lines, cohabited by the Myanmar army, ethnic
armed organizations, so-called "border guard forces" and hundreds of smaller
militias. Men with guns usually stay out of each other's way, often do business
together, sometimes try to expand their territory, and occasionally, fight. The
dynamics in places have less in common with Syria in 2016 than, say, Chicago in
1926.
September 1, 2016 12:00 pm JST
Thant Myint-U: The big picture beyond Myanmar's peace process
What is important is to prevent discussions on the broad political goals
mentioned above from becoming a substitute for the nitty-gritty negotiations and
confidence-building measures needed to end the fighting. Talks on the political
future of the country should be an open, inclusive, and ultimately democratic
exercise. But any negotiations to actually end the fighting in the northeast need to
focus on the key combatants: the armed forces, the ethnic armed organizations
and the militias.
With so many different parties to the conflict, it will be difficult to balance locally
tailored solutions with a more comprehensive approach. There is understandable
resistance to a "divide and rule" formula, but a lowest-common-denominator
approach should also be rejected.
TNLA soldiers at a security briefing in Shan State on Feb. 18 (Photo by Steve Tickner)
THE CHINESE ELEPHANT This links to the fourth set of issues and the
elephant in the room: China. Myanmar's armed conflicts once raged across the
country. They are now mainly confined to areas close to China, where groups like
the United Wa State Army are successors to the communist insurgencies once
armed by Beijing. Foreign countries should not be involved in national political
talks on Myanmar's future, but China must be a partner in any diplomacy aimed
at peace along the border.
Much attention has been focused on the future of Myitsone dam, China's planned
$3.6 billion hydropower project in northern Kachin State that was suspended by
the previous administration. But this is almost certainly not Beijing's focus.
Yunnan in southern China is now more than self-sufficient in electricity, and in
general, any benefits from economic projects in Myanmar will be a drop in the
bucket for China's $10 trillion economy. China has a strategic interest in
Myanmar as a bridge to the Indian Ocean and is more likely to prioritize
development of its proposed deep-sea port at Kyaukphyu, on the country's west
coast.
At an even more basic level, Beijing is keen simply to ensure that Myanmar, if not
always a reliable friend, is never a threat. It would like peace along the border but
wants to shape this process as it moves forward, maintaining the dominant
international role. It has deep ties with some of the ethnic armed organizations
and will not give these up easily. Beijing's nightmare scenario would be to lose its
grip over the still unstable borderlands, only to see Western or Japanese interests
take its place.
Aung San Suu Kyi's recent trip to China may have helped assuage Beijing's fears.
It will be critical to find China the right seat at the right table, leveraging its
influence while protecting Myanmar's sovereignty. There are potential win-win
scenarios. Myanmar's armed conflicts are taking place in one of poorest parts of
Asia but also next to one of the greatest industrial revolutions ever.
ECONOMIC ENERGY The fifth and equally important set of issues -- those
related to the economy -- has been almost entirely left out of peace discussions
over recent years. Part of the reason has been the fear among some, especially the
ethnic armed organizations, that the government would try to "buy them out,"
and that offers of aid or business investment would dilute their political agendas.
Given past history, this is understandable.
At the same time, the absence of a more transparent discussion on economic
issues will only lead to backroom deals, bringing in the carpetbaggers and leaving
local communities with little say over the economic forces changing their lives.
Moreover, omitting the economic dimension would leave out the most dynamic
potential catalyst for peace. Myanmar has had nearly 70 years of peace talks and
decades of ceasefires that have led nowhere. What is different today are the
economic opportunities that can transform the country, quickly. Harnessing this
energy in a way that builds peace is crucial.
Missing is better analysis of what the various regional economies can become in
10 or 20 years' time. A menu of options for the different regional economies --
linked both to a booming central economy and dynamic cross-border ties --
would help steer negotiators away from a simple focus on dividing the current
pie.
Last October's Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement included unprecedented
commitments to jointly improve the lives of ordinary people. Yet efforts to
implement these "interim measures" have barely begun. In the country's
southeast, where the ceasefires are holding well, a key next step should be
mutually agreed economic programs, joining both private investment and
international aid, in ways that will maximize benefits to local communities and
build trust among combatants.
Myanmar is closer now to peace than at any time since independence in 1948. A
long-term vision and versatile diplomacy over the coming months will make all
the difference.
Thant Myint-U is a historian and an author, most recently of "Where China
Meets India: Burma and the New Crossroads of Asia" (2011).
BURMESE TRANSLATION
http://burma.irrawaddy.com/opinion/viewpoint/2016/08/30/121819.html
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ααααΌ α α± α»α ααα» α± αα αα α α±α αα αα»α ααα»αα α α ααααα± α αα± αΎαα αα± αΎαααα» α± αα αα αα α αα±α±ααα αα α αααΌα α α αΌα α±α α αΎαααα αα±α±ααα αα αα αα¦αΈα α α α±α± αα α± αα»αΌααΎαααα αα±α±ααα α αα± ααΎαααα
α±α ααα ααααα α»αααΌα α±αα α±αα»α±αα α α± αααα» α αααα±α α αααα±α αααα α± αα α α α± αΌ α±ααΌ α±α α α±α α α ααα±ααΌα αα α αΈα ααΈα α αα α αΈα ααΈα α ααΌα α α α» ααΈαα± αα αααα ααΈα α±α α α αΌαα α α α ααα αα±α ααΌα α±ααΎααααΈ αα±ααΎααααΈ ααα±αα α±α α α α α±ααα α α αα¦αΈα α αααα±α ααααααα» ααα α± αΌ α±ααΌ αα ααα α± αΌ α±ααΌ ααααΌα αΌαα»αα ααΈ α αα α±ααααΈ αααα» αα αα±αα α α α α α α α αα»αα ααΈα α α αα»αα ααΈα α αα ααα» α±ααα α αα±αααα α±ααα± ααα α αα α α αΌαα α αα ααα± α ααα±α α ααα±α ααΌα ααααα» αα α αΈα α± αΌ α±ααΌ ααΈααΌα α α α ααα» α ααΌααα α αα ααα» α αα α α α αα α α α α αααα αα αα α ααΌααα α αααα» ααα α α α α α αα αα α αα αα α±ααα
αΈ α ααΌα α±ααα± α±αα ααΌααα α ααΌ α α α ααα» ααΌα α α α±α α± αααα» α± α¬ α ααΈαα±αααα» α α± αααΌα ααΌα α±ααα±ααααα» α± αα α α α± αα α α αΈ α± ααααα α±αα α±ααααΌαα α±αα±αα» α±α αα»ααα α±ααΌ α±ααΌ α±αΌα α± ααα» α αα α αα α α±α α α ααα± α αα αα αα ααα α αα±ααααα αα±αααα αΌα α α± α± α α ααα» α± α¬ α ααΈα αα α±α α α±ααα
α± α±αα±αα α±α α ααα± αααααα αα α±α α α αααα» αα α± α α±α ααα α αα αα±ααα ααααα ααααα αα± αΌ α±ααΌ α± αααα» α α α« αα ααα α αα ααα α±α αα ααα α ααα αααα¦αΈα αα αα α αα αα α αΈ α α α ααα αα± α α ααα α α ααααα±αα»ααα α±α± α± ααΌα α αα ααααααα» α α ααα» α α ααα» α± ααα α ααΌααα α α αα α± α α α α ααα αα± α α αα αα¦αΈα α±α»αα αα»ααΈα ααα ααα α±αα»α±αα ααΌ α α α±ααα αα±αααα» βαβ α α±ααΌ α α ααααΌαα±α α αα±αα UWSA) ααα»α α ααΌααα α αα α± ααα α αα ααα α αααΈα α±α ααα»ααα» α ααα αα α±α ) α α αα¦αΈα αααααΌα α αα αα»α αα αα» α αααα±α α± αΌ α±ααΌ ααΈα α ααΌα α α±ααααα» α±α α αα±αααα α αα±αααα α±α αα±αα ααααΌα α α α± α α±α α ααααΌα±ααα» αααα αααα α±α αα α α α«α α ααΌα α ααααα± αα ααα αα ααα
α α α α¦αΈα αααα α α±α α±ααααα» αα αα¦αΈα ααααααα αα± α±αα± α±α¬α αα α±ααα α αα αααα ααα±ααααα» α±αα α α± ααα αα αΌαααα±αααΌαααα±αα α αα αα± α α α±αα α±αα αα α α α αα αααα α α±α±α α α ααα»αααΌα α α α±αα»ααα α αα±αααα αα ααα α αα αα αα¦αΈα α α α αα αααΈαα± ααΈααα±ααα α α αα ααα α±α± α±α±ααΌα α αα αααα±ααα α αα α± α± α α±αα αα α α α αΌα α ααΌα ααα±αααααα»α αα αα± α α±α±αΌα± α±α±αΌα± α ααα» α ααα ααααα α α αΌα α±α α αααα α α αα ααα ααα» α αα αα ααα ααααα α±αα α α± αα±αα α α± ααα α α»
α»ααααα±α αα ααα» α αα αααα¦αΈα α α αΌα α±α ααΌα α±α αα±α±αα α α α αα±αα αα ααα αα ααα α ααα αααααΌα αα α± α±αα α αα αααα¦αΈα αΈαα± ααα α α α αΌα αα±ααα α α± αα ααα αα ααα α αααΌα±ααα» αα α±αΎααα αα± α± ααα» αα ααα α α α»α α±αα α ααα ααα α± αα α αα α± α±αα α±α αα α α±α α αα α ααα±α α α ααα±α α α α α α± ααΌα±αα αα α± ααα
α± α±α±αα α αΌα ααα α α αα αα α ααα ααααα αα α α α»α αααα» α αα± αΌ α α αααα α αα αα± αα α α α± α α± α±ααααΈαα± αα αααα±α α α±αα± αα±α α±α α αα α»αα α± α±ααα α αα αααα αα ααα α± ααα» α±α αα±αα ααααΌα α α α± α α±α α αα±αΌαα αα αα α±αααα α ααααααα¦αΈα αΎαα ααααααα¦αΈα αΎαα‘αααα α α αα±αα α± ααα α» α α αα α α α± α α±α α α α α¬α α α α α¬α α±αααααΌα αα αααα»αα αα±ααα± α± αα± ααα α αα αααα α α αα αα αα α αα αα αα αα α αα± αααα» α αΈα α±αα αααΌα±ααΈαα α± α α± α± αααΌα±ααΈα α α αα ααΌα±αα α αΌ ααααα αα»αα ααΈα α±α α αα ααα ααΌα α ααααα αααα αα±α α±αα α±α α±α α± αα± α α» α± α αααΈα α α±α αα»α α α± ααα α α αααΈα αααΈα α α αααα¦αΈα α α α αΌα α α α α α» ααα±ααα ααααα αααααα α α αα± α±α αα ααα
ααΎααα±α ααα ααΌα α±αααα±αα»α±αα α± αα±αα α αΎααα¦αΈα α αα αα αααα±αα α α¬α α αα αα¦αΈα α α α ααΈα α α ααααα±α α±αα» α±α αα»ααα α ααα αααα¦αΈα α± α± α±α αααα ααααΌα±α± α α¬ α αα ααα α± ααα» α¦αΈα αΎαα¦αΈα αΎαα‘αααα α ααΈα αααα»αααα α¦αΈα αα α α±ααα± ααα α±ααΌααα α ααΌ α±α α± αα α±α αα»ααα ααα αΌααα αα± α αααα» αα ααα α αα αα α± α±ααα
α ααα ααααα αα αα α αΈ α α α α αααα¦αΈα α αα α α± αα α α»ααα αα±ααΌα αα α± α±α αα α±αααα αα α±αααα ααα α α± α α±αα α αααΈα±αααα α±α αα±α¦αΈα α±αΌ ααΌααα α α α αα α± ααα
α ααα»α α αΌα α±α α¬α«αα± ααα αα αα α±α α α α«α α αααα» α αα±α ααα α±αα α± αααα α α αΌα α±α αααα» αα±αα α α α«α α α α α«α α αα ααα α α±αα»ααα» ααα α α ααΌα α α α±αα»α±αα α α α± α α±α α± αΌ α±ααΌ αΌαα α ααΌα α α αΌα α±α α ααα α αΌα α±α α αα α α α± α± αα α»α α±αα»ααα α» α α α α± α α±α α±αΎααα αα αα α ααα αα± α α» α αα» α ααα» α α αα αα αα αα α ααΌααα α α α αΎαα ααΌα α α αα α αα αα±α±α αα α α ααα α α αα± α±αα»αΎα α±α α±αΎαααα» αα ααα αα αααα ααα ααααα» αααα α α αααΈα α α αΌα α±α αα ααα αα ααα αα αααααΈα α α αα αα¦αΈα α αααα±α α α α α¬α α α α α±α αα»ααΌα α±α ααα α α ααΎα α±αα α ααΎα α±α αα ααα α α±αα»ααα» α± ααα±αΎααα α α α αΎααα»αα αα α αα αα¦αΈααα αα¦αΈα α α αααΈα α ααα ααα αα ααα
αα± αα ααα α α α αΌα α±α α α α«α α αααα» ααα αΌαα» αΌαα»αα ααααα±αα α± αΌ α±ααΌ ααΈ ααα α±α α ααα α±α α α± αα± ααααΌα±ααΌα α α±αα αα±αΌααααα± αα α α α α αααα± ααα α ααΌα α α α α±α ααΌααα αααααααα» α ααα α±α αα ααα αα αααααΈα α α αα αα ααα±α α±αα» α αα ααα±α α±αα» α α± αα±α α α α α ααα αα αα¦αΈα αΌαα α± αα ααα± ααα» α α αΌα α±α αααα» ααα α α ααα α αα±αα αα α± α α αα±ααα»ααα
α» α α α α αΌα α±α αΈα±α»ααα»α α± αα α±αα» α±α α±αΎαααα» α α α± α α±α ααΌα αα αα α±αα αα α±ααα α α±α»ααα α α α α αα α±α α±αα»α αα»αα αα ααα α ααα αααααΌα α α α± αα α α± α α±α α± αΌ α±ααΌ ααΈα α±α ααα α± α α± α α±αα» α α±α ααα α α α αΌα αα α±αα»ααα» αα α±αα»ααα» α α±α α α αα±α ααααα α α αα α±αα» α±α α±α± αα± α¦αΈα ααΌα α α±α α ααΈααα α α αα αα α ααα α α α ααΌαα α± αα α± α αααα» α α αΌα α±α α±αΌαα»αα α α αα α± α±α αα ααα α± αα ααα α± α αΌα αα α» α±αααα αΌα αα α±α α α α α± α α α± α α±α ααα±ααααααΌα α±α α±ααα» α αα αα± αα ααα
α± αα α α± ααααα α± ααααααα» α ααα α αααΈα ααα αα ααΌα ααΌα ααΌα ααΌα α± αααΌα α α α α αΌα α±α α ααα α αα ααααα α± αα αααα» α±αα»αα α±αα»αα α α ααΈ αα ααα ααΌα α α±α α ααα» ααα α»αΌα ααα±αα αΈ α α αΌα α α αΌα α±α αα± αααα» α±α ααα±α α αααΌα±ααΈα α α α±αα αααα» α± αααα α±αα) α± αααΌα α α αΌα α±α α α α α αΌα α±α α α ααΌα α±ααΌ α± α± α ααα α α α±α α»α αα α αΈα αα α α αααα αααα α± α»α α α α±α α±αΌαα±α α±α α α αα α α±α αα αα α±α α±αα α±α»ααα α± α αα αα»αα± α αα αα»αα αα ααα
α α±αα»ααα»ααα α±ααα αΌααα αααααα±α α» α±αα»ααα» αα ααααα α α αα ααα» α α±αα α α α α±αα α αα±α αα±αΌααααα± α NCA) ααΌα ααα ααα αα¦αΈα αΌαΌαα αα α±ααα ααΌ α±α ααΌα α± α±α α±ααααΌαα ααα ααα ααΈαααα» αα αααα α α±ααα± α±αα»ααα α± αΎαα ααα±ααααΌαααΈα α α α±ααα±ααα α»α α±ααα α α»αααΈα α α α αα α ααα ααα±α αα αα αα ααα α α±αα α αα±α α α±ααα ααΌ α αΌα α» α αα» α α α»α α αα±αα α ααα αααα¦αΈα α±ααα±ααα α ααΌα α±ααα αααα» ααα αα±α ααΌα α±α ααα ααα» α± α±α ααα ααα» α± αααα α α αΌα α±α α α α α¬α α αααα» ααα αα αα±αΌααααααΈα α αα ααα ααα» α±ααα αα‘α α αα ααα αα αααααΈαααα» α ααααααα¦αΈα αααα α α± α±α α»α ααα» α± α α α α¬α α α± α α α α¬α α α α± αα±α ααα α α¦αΈα α α α αΌα α αααα»ααα ααα αα αα α α ααΌααα ααΌααα α αΎαα ααΌααα α±ααΎααααΈα ααα±ααα ααα αα ααα
α±α± α±α± α ααα ααααα ααΌαα α±α ααα α±αα»ααα» α¬α α±ααα α± αα α ααΌα α α α± α α±α ααα α ααααα» α± ααααα» α± α»αα α α α ααα» α± α±α± ααΌα αα α± α±ααα α±αααα αααααα» ααααα»α ααΌα ααΌα
ααΌα ααΌα αα ααααα» ααΌα α α±α α ααα» αααα α αα α α αα± ααα α αα±αα»αα α) α α± αα ααααΈ α± αα ααααΈ α αα α α α± α±α αα»ααα
(αΎαααα αα ααα± αα Nikkei Asian Review ααΌα α±αα α»α α±αα α α ααα» α¦αΈα Thant Myint-U β Myanmar beyond the peace process α α ααα ααΌα αΌααα ααα α α ααα» αα αα α ααααα α αα±α αα αα±α±αα αα α α± αα α α±α αα α±αα»α±αα α α ααα ααα¬ α± ααα α α»αα±αα±αα»ααα» Where China Meets India: Burma and the New Crossroads of Asia αα ααα)