The global economic crisis, its impact on women, children and the socially excluded in South Asia and new development paths

Dr Aniruddha Bonnerjee, KolkataGabriele Köhler, UNICEF and UNCTAD

UNICEF National Committee Spain: Children and the Millennium Development Goals

Madrid, 24 -25 March 2010

1. South Asian economies – good macro performance; less crisis-affected than expected

2. Hunger and malnutrition – the silent South Asian crisis – magnified by the economic crisis and hitting the socially excluded the hardest

3. Households’ coping strategies with adverse consequences for women and children and socially excluded groups

4. Expanded role of the state – global paradigm shift towards a developmental welfare state

5. Use economic stimulus packages to expedite MDG achievement and promote new development paths – for equitable development

Main points

Afghanistan

Sri Lanka

Maldives

Nepal

Pakistan

BangladeshIndia

Bhutan

Kashmir

South AsiaDeaths per 1000 live births Total 2008

Total 15 - 2829 - 5455 - 8182 - 257Missing Value

Note: The boundaries and the names shown and the designations used on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.Source: UN_Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UNICEF, World Health Organization, United Nations Population Division and the World Bank)

1.South Asian economies – good macro performance; less affected by the economic crisis than initially anticipated but risks remain

South Asia as an economic powerhouse

– International limelight on India and its neighbouring economies

– But political violence and conflict in Afghanistan, Pakistan, parts of India, Nepal and Sri Lanka

– Massive economic and social polarisation

– MDGs not doing as well as they could

South Asia: Per capita GDP in current US $

0.00

250.00

500.00

750.00

1,000.00

1,250.00

1,500.00

1,750.00

2,000.00

2,250.00

2,500.00

2,750.00

3,000.00

3,250.00

3,500.00

3,750.00

AFG BGD BHU IND MDV NEP PAK LKA

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Progress on the MDGs: More red than green

Children severely deprived of basic human needs

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Shelter

Sanitation

Information

Water

Food

Health

Education

%

World South Asia

Source: Gordon et.al. The Distribution of Child Poverty in the Developing World. Report to UNICEF. Bristol, July 2003

South Asia lags behind the world

2.Hunger and malnutrition – the silent South Asian crisis – magnified by the economic crisis and hitting the socially excluded the hardest

Source: downloaded from http://www.undprcc.lk/hunger

Different faces of hunger and poverty (2005-2008)

Source: Author calculations and World Bank Povcal data

Child malnourishment in South Asia

Source: State of the World’s Children, 2009. UNICEF

Country 1970 1990 2005/6 2008

AFG 8-9

BGD 20.3 33.3 44.0 65

IND 218.3 261.3 209.5 230 - 350

NPL 6.7 7.7 4.4 6.5 - 10.5

PAK 16.9 23.6 37.5 80 - 88

LKA 2.7 3.0 4.2 5 - 10

South Asia 265+ 329+ 300+ 400 - 500+

Source: FAO database for 1970-2005/6. UN/WFP/UNICEF/Interagency mission reports and country specific DHS or HIES for 2007/8.

Growing hunger in South Asia...

Social exclusion in South Asia

• Based on class, caste, ethnicity, language, faith, location

• Differences in human development outcomes

Prevalence of absolute child poverty, by household wealth quintile, in 2005 or last available year, %

0

20

40

60

80

100

Poor

est

Seco

nd

Mid

dle

Four

th

Rich

est

Poor

est

Seco

nd

Third

Four

th

Rich

est

Poor

est

Seco

nd

Third

Four

th

Rich

est

Poor

est

Seco

nd

Third

Four

th

Rich

est

Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan

% o

f chi

ldre

n ex

perie

ncin

g at

leas

t tw

o se

vere

dep

rivati

ons

Prevalence of severe child deprivation by ethnicity / caste in Nepal, in 2005 or last available year, %

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Tharu Magar Tamang Chhetri Brahmin Other

% c

hild

ren

expe

rienc

ing

seve

re d

epriv

ation

At least oneseveredeprivation, %

At least twoseveredeprivations, %

Prevalence of severe child deprivation by ethnicity in Pakistan, in 2005 or last available year, %

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Barauhi Marwari Kashmiri Siraiki Balochi Pushto Sindhi Punjabi Hindko Pahari Farsi Urdu Potowari Other

% c

hild

ren

expe

rienc

ing

seve

re d

epriv

ation

At least oneseveredeprivation,%

At least twoseveredeprivations,%

3. Households’ coping strategies with adverse consequences for women and children and socially excluded groups

Took children out Took children out of school (~32%)of school (~32%)

Coping with food shortagesCoping with food shortages

Coping strategies (example Pakistan)

Most vulnerable

• persons under and around poverty line• women• socially excluded communities – caste, ethnic, minorities, disabled, people living with HIV/Aids,• children and the elderly• migrants - within country and cross border• internally displaced and refugee households• people in drought and conflict stricken areas• the informal sector

because of their precarious position in labour markets and in the household

4. The South Asian developmental welfare state and the global paradigm shift

Source:UNICEF ROSA, South Asia Fiscal Budget database, 2008

South Asia and the policy horizon

Paradigm shiftRenewed interest in the public sector and the role of the state in the industrialized countries

Historical commitment to a developmental welfare state in South Asia

Ensure and accelerate MDG achievement Address poverty, hunger and malnutrition (MDG 1)

Generate employment for the most vulnerable – Create decent work (MDG 1)

Ensure inclusive, high quality, universal social services (MDGs 2-7)

Support and enhance universal social protection (supports MDGs 1-7)

South Asia and the policy horizon

5. Use economic stimulus packages to expedite MDG achievement and promote new development paths – for equitable development

• Additional financing for the most vulnerable• Food security • Trade – conclusion of Doha round and fighting protectionism• Green economy initiative • Global Jobs Pact• Social Protection Floor• Humanitarian security and social stability• Technology and innovation• Monitoring and analysis

Fiscal Stimulus Plans Q4 2009-Q2 2010, %GDP

Fiscal stimuli: Counter-cyclical socio-economic policies

Creating decent work conditions and increasing incomes through employment schemes and social protection transfers Raising domestic demand/expanding internal markets Use stimuli to enhance social services delivery Creating productive capacity

A minimum set of actions• Urgently address the enormous problem of malnutrition in South Asia.

– Begin or expand malnutrition prevention interventions before/during pregnancy; – Accelerate nutrition interventions to children under 2; – Ensure regular nutritional monitoring of children under 5 and pregnant women;– Rapidly scale-up supplementary and therapeutic feeding at community level to

address severe acute malnutrition;

• Rapidly expand inclusive access to basic and high-quality social services– Increase access to clean drinking water and improved sanitation; – Promote hand-washing with soap as one of the most effective public health

actions;– Improve community empowerment to scale-up prevention and care; – Ensure inclusive, child-friendly, high-quality health and education, making sure

primary health and education services are genuinely free, and involve communities.

• Enhance publicly-financed employment and training schemes, particularly for youth.– Include child-relevant infrastructure improvements and staffing of schools,

clinics, early childhood centers, in fiscal stimulus packages; – Expand protective services to address exploitation, violence and abuse;– Introduce or expand employment and training schemes, especially for youth, in

manufacturing, the services industry, private entrepreneurship and government to address youth unemployment and disaffection.

• Enhance and systematize social protection for all– Boost food and cash social transfers already in place to address food price hikes;– Consider the gradual introduction of a social protection floor, starting with a

universal child benefit.

From UNICEF Regional Office South Asia June 2009 Matter of Magnitude

Conclusion • Address hunger and malnutrition• Create employment – the decent work

agenda• Ensure inclusive, high-quality, universal

social services• Enhance social protection• Create productive capacity and finalise an

equitable Doha development round• Promote new development paths – for

equitable development