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Republican National Convention Survey
n=611 Likely Voters
MoE=±4.0% Fielded August 28-29, 2012
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Page 2
Where We Polled
West:
Colorado
Nevada
Midwest/Northeast
Iowa
Wisconsin
Michigan
Ohio
New Hampshire
South
Virginia
North Carolina
Florida
Page 3
Interesting National Data
Obama’s job approval has remained below 50% for 15 consecutive months.
Source: Real Clear Politics
46%
52%
44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%
49%
47%
48% 49%
47% 46% 48%
49%
42%
51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%
47%
48%
47% 48%
50% 49% 49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12
Obama Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
Obama Job Approval
Less than 40% of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of the economy.
Source: Pollster.com
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Approve Disapprove
53%
39%
2010 Election
Obama Economic Approval
Job creation continues to underperform what is necessary to begin real economic recovery.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
125,000 =
Number of new
jobs needed to
keep pace with
population
growth
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
National Unemployment Rate
July 2012 8.3%
87,000 64,000
163,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
May June July
Jobs Created by Month
Page 7
Most registered voters before the Convention indicated that they believed that Mitt Romney would do a better job of handling the economy than Barack Obama.
Mitt Romney 52%
Neither/Unsure 10%
Barack Obama 38%
Handling of the Economy & Unemployment
Source: CBS News Poll, August 22-26, 2012, n=1,051 Registered Voters
The race between Obama and Romney remained a dead-heat heading into the Convention.
Source: Real Clear Politics
Obama vs. Romney
47% 49% 49% 49% 47%
49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46% 47% 47% 47%
46% 43%
45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45% 43% 45% 44% 44% 45% 45% 44%
46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul 1-Aug 15-Aug 30-Aug
Obama Romney
Page 9
Mitt Romney Information Flow
Page 10
A plurality of the information reaching likely voters in key swing states is giving them a less favorable impression of Mitt Romney.
Q5: Opinion from Romney Information
Information Flow: Impact
37% 37% 24%
22%
44% 42%
22%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Aug 28 Aug 28-29
Total More Favorable Much More Favorable Total Less Favorable Much Less Favorable
Page 11
A plurality of voters in each of the regions of swing states report that the information they have heard about Romney gives them a less favorable impression of him including more than half in Colorado/Nevada.
Q5: Impact of Info Flow By region.
Impact of Info flow by Region
Colorado/Nevada (9%)
15% More Favorable
51% Less Favorable
27% Not S/R/H
IA/WI/MI/OH/NH
(45%)
36% More Favorable
42% Less Favorable
14% Not S/R/H
VA/NC/FL (46%)
41% More Favorable
41% Less Favorable
11% Not S/R/H
Overall:
37% More Favorable
42% Less Favorable
14% Have Not S/R/H
Page 12
Likely voters from swing states report that they are learning about the Romney campaign primarily though coverage of the convention and nightly news shows, both local and national.
Q6: Sources of Romney Information
Sources of Romney Information
26%
25%
18%
15%
15%
12%
9%
6%
4%
4%
4%
3%
25%
5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
GOP Convention-News Coverage
Nightly Local News
Nightly National News
Watching GOP Convention
Newspaper Coverage
Internet/Blog Coverage
Today Show
60 Minutes
Piers Morgan
Hannity
On the Record
Your World
Other
Don't Know
Page 13
The Convention has created large numbers of positive impressions of Romney but this effect is being somewhat offset by highly negative information elsewhere.
Q5: Opinion from Romney Information
Impact of Romney Image by Information Source
67% 75%
27% 28%
50% 41%
33% 25%
73% 72%
50% 59%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
News Coverageof Convention
WatchedConvention
Nightly LocalNews
Nightly NationalNews
NewspaperCoverage
Internet
Total Less Favorable
Total More Favorable
Page 14
Those who indicate they have been watching the convention overwhelmingly indicate the information they have been seeing about Mitt Romney is giving them a more favorable impression of him.
Q5: Opinion from Romney Information
Impact of Romney Image by Engagement with Convention
Watching Convention Watching News Coverage Not Watching
Total More Fav 64% 26% 24%
Total Less Fav 24% 52% 48%
37%
16% 15%
27%
10% 9%
7%
15% 19%
5%
7% 9%
5%
9%
29%
19%
43%
19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Watching Convention Watching NewsCoverage
Not Watching
Much less favorable
Somewhat less favorable
Refused
Have not seen/read/heard
Somewhat more favorable
Much more favorable
Page 15
Convention Coverage Consumption
Page 16
More than half of likely voters in key swing states did not pay attention to the Convention on the first night. That number dropped to just over a third on night two.
Q8: Are you watching the Convention?
Battleground Convention Consumption
24% 28%
18%
27% 2%
7%
53%
36%
3% 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Aug 28 Aug 29
Other
Not Watching
Both
Watching News Coverage
Watching Convention
Page 17
Just over a quarter of likely voters each key geographic region indicate that they are watching the convention. Most likely voters in the West and Midwest are not watching anything about the convention.
Q8: Are you watching the Republican Convention
Are you watching the Republican Convention
Colorado/Nevada (9%)
26% Watching Convention
13% Watching Coverage
60% Not Watching
IA/WI/MI/OH/NH (45%)
25% Watching Convention
18% Watching Coverage
50% Not Watching
VA/NC/FL (46%)
27% Watching Convention
27% Watching Coverage
37% Not Watching
Overall:
26% Watched Convention
22% Watched News Coverage
45% Not Watching
Page 18
Nearly half of Republican voters in key swing states now indicate that they are watching the Convention. Democrats are more likely to be watching news coverage while half of independent voters are not watching at all.
Are you watching the Republican Convention
26%
49%
24%
18%
5%
4% 37%
26%
8% 2% 1% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Aug 28 Aug 29
Republicans
DK/Refused
Other
Not Watching
Both
WatchingNewsCoverage
WatchingConvention
20% 15%
22% 23%
4% 8%
51% 52%
2% 2% 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Aug 28 Aug 29
Independents
DK/Refused
Other
Not Watching
Both
WatchingNewsCoverage
WatchingConvention 18% 21%
22%
36% 3%
7%
54%
34%
4% 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Aug 28 Aug 29
Democrats
DK/Refused
Other
Not Watching
Both
WatchingNewsCoverage
WatchingConvention
Page 19
Convention Speeches
Page 20
A plurality of likely voters in key swing states who have been paying attention to the convention were able to recall Ann Romney’s speech. More than a third could recall Chris Christie’s speech.
Q9: Which Speeches do you remember seeing?
Speeches Recalled: Night One Speakers
44%
37%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Ann Romney
Chris Christie
Nikki Haley
John Boehner
John Kasich
Scott Walker
Rick Santorum
Reince Priebus
Kelly Ayotte
Bob McDonnell
Janine Turner
Ted Cruz
Artur Davis
Page 21
Night one speeches have very high recall among likely voters because they have had a full news cycle of coverage whereas night two speakers have not yet been covered in the press.
Q9: Which Speeches do you remember seeing?
Speeches Recalled: Night Two Speakers
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Rand Paul
John McCain
Paul Ryan
Mitch McConnell
Mike Huckabee
Page 22
Ann Romney’s speech was the clear favorite among likely voters in key swing states with Chris Christie’s speech coming in second.
Q10: Which Speech did you like the most?
Favorite Speech
33%
16%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
8%
10%
22%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Ann Romney
Chris Christie
Craig Romney
John Boehner
Janine Turner
John Kasich
Nikki Haley
Rand Paul
Mike Huckabee
Jeb Bush
Don't Remember
Didn't watch
Don't Know
Page 23
Reasons for favorite speech: 1st Night
Q11: Reason for favorite speech
Favorite
Speech Reason it was the Favorite
Chris Christie He is somewhat controversial and he used the term “don’t piss me off.”
Chris Christie He is concerned about the middle class.
Chris Christie He talked about liberty and justice for all.
Chris Christie I like that he talks in a straight forward, no-nonsense manner.
Jeb Bush I like his politics.
John Boehner He was convincing saying that nothing has been done in favor of the
public in the last four years and we need to make a change in the political
agenda.
John Boehner He was blasting Obama.
John Kasich He said that when he came into office the state of Ohio had less money
in their state treasury than children do in their piggy banks.
John Kasich He was pretty clear about taxes and the debt.
Ann Romney She really supports women’s rights and encourages women in the
business sector.
Ann Romney She is a good speaker and I like her as a person.
Scott Walker He was enthusiastic.
Page 24
Reasons given for why likely voters liked the two favorite speakers tended to revolve around the sincerity of Ann Romney and Chris Christie and their ability to connect with the voters with honesty and passion.
Q11: Reason for favorite speech
Reason for Favorite Speech: Night 2
Ann Romney
• Spoke about the Family
• Sincere and Truthful
• Explained who her husband is
• Seems “Down-to-Earth”
• Not a Professional Politician
• Honest
• Heartfelt
• Positive and Knowledgeable
• Genuine
• Talked about Women’s Rights
• Personalized the Family
Chris Christie
• No-Nonsense Person
• Straight Forward
• Straight Talk
• Interesting Person
• Honest
• Showed Conviction and Passion
• Fired Up
• Energetic
• Positive
Page 25
Reasons for favorite speech: 2nd Night
Q11: Reason for favorite speech
Favorite
Speech Reason it was the Favorite
Artur Davis I think he was being honest.
Artur Davis Because he seems to have an open mind and to be intellectually honest.
John Boehner He described Mitt Romney as a real person who cares.
John Boehner He talked about what the House has done and what the Senate has not
done.
John Kasich He talked about business, regulations, and fracking.
John McCain He sounded very statesman-like and talked about our exceptionalism.
Marco Rubio He is pro all of the things that the country is about.
Mike Huckabee He was talking about the hope and change that Obama talked about
during his 1st campaign.
Nikki Haley She just nailed everything.
Nikki Haley She talked about how entrepreneurs are going for the country because
they employ others.
For additional information about this data, please feel free to contact:
Bryon Allen Partner
202.470.6300
Chris Wilson Partner & CEO
405.286.6500
Chris Perkins Partner
405.286.6500
