WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120810

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WPA’s Weekly Political Brief August 10, 2012

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WPA’s Weekly Political Brief

As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political environment

as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates every Friday.

In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:

• Direction of the Country

• Obama Job Approval

• National Unemployment

• Obama Approval on the Economy

• Generic Congressional Ballot

• National & per capita debt

• Romney vs. Obama

In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and

timely new data from that week. This week we have:

• A look at economic confidence levels.

• The correlation between GDP growth and incumbent reelection margin.

• An example of how ObamaCare will impact businesses.

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Weekly Summary

• Economic confidence fell for the second straight month among all Americans (pg. 9).

o The modest improvement since the beginning of the year reversed as more

Americans begin to hold a pessimistic view of the economy.

• The Gallup Economic Confidence Index was negative for all 50 states in the first half

of 2012 (pg. 10).

o In the 12 states with the highest economic confidence rating, 8 have Republican

governors.

• There is a strong relationship between GDP growth and the incumbent reelection

margin (pg. 12).

o Obama’s inability to rejuvenate the economy casts serious doubt on his

reelection prospects.

• When ObamaCare is implemented in 2014, its heavy burden will weigh upon many

individuals and businesses (pg. 14).

o The price of a Papa Johns pizza will increase $0.14 due to ObamaCare, which

underscores the fact that it is an enormous tax.

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Less than 30% of Americans feel as though the nation is on the right track.

Source: Real Clear Politics

One Month Ago One Year Ago

Right Direction 32% 17%

Wrong Track 62% 77%

29% 27% 29% 31% 31% 30% 28% 27%

17% 19%

31% 30% 32% 29%

47%

66% 62% 64% 63% 64%

66% 64%

77% 74%

61% 62% 62% 65%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan

-10

Fe

b-1

0

Ma

r-1

0

Ap

r-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Jun

-10

Jul-1

0

Au

g-1

0

Se

p-1

0

Oct-

10

Nov-1

0

De

c-1

0

Jan

-11

Fe

b-1

1

Ma

r-1

1

Ap

r-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Jun

-11

Jul-1

1

Au

g-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Oct-

11

Nov-1

1

De

c-1

1

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

Ma

r-1

2

Ap

r-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Jun

-12

Jul-1

2

Au

g-1

2

Direction of the Country

Right Direction Wrong Track

2010 Election

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Obama’s job approval remains below 50% for 15th consecutive month.


One Week Ago One Month Ago

Approve 46% 46%

Disapprove 50% 49%

46%

52%

44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%

49%

47%

48% 49%

47% 46% 47%

49%

42%

51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%

47%

48%

47% 48%

50% 49% 49%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12

Obama Job Approval

Approve Disapprove

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$50,793

$139,815

$15,955,258,894,158

The national debt steadily approaches $16 Trillion.

Source: USDebtclock.org

U.S. National Debt

Debt Per Citizen

Debt Per Taxpayer

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Republicans continue to maintain a lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot.

Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains

R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats

41% 42% 43% 42% 45% 44% 43%

41% 43% 41% 41% 43%

46% 43% 44% 42% 43% 44% 45%

41% 46%

43% 43% 44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Generic Congressional Ballot

Democrat Republican

49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%

45%

0%

50%

100%

2004 2006 2008 2010

Previous Election Day Generic Ballots

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Less than 40% of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of the economy.

Source: Pollster.com

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

Obama Economic Approval

Approve Disapprove

53%

39%

2010 Election

Page 9

Economic confidence fell for the second straight month among all Americans. The modest improvement since the beginning of the year reversed as more Americans hold a pessimistic view of the economy.

15

23

17

0

5

10

15

20

25

January April July

2012 Small Business Owners' Confidence

-27

-23

-19 -21

-17

-22

-26

-29

-24

-19

-14

-9

-4

1

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

2012 Gallup Economic Confidence Index

Source: Gallup

Page 10

The Gallup Economic Confidence Index was negative for all 50 states in the first half of 2012. In the 12 states with the highest economic confidence rating, 8 have Republican governors.

Source: Gallup

-6

-8 -9

-10 -10 -11

-14 -15

-16 -16 -16

-19 -20

-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

MN SD MD ND IA HI NE UT VA TX MA WI

Top 12 States with the Highest Economic Confidence Rating

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Job creation continues to underperform what is necessary to begin real economic recovery.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

125,000 =

Number of new

jobs needed to

keep pace with

population

growth

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

National Unemployment Rate

July 2012 8.3%

87,000 64,000

163,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

May June July

Jobs Created by Month

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There is a strong correlation between GDP growth and the incumbent presidential reelection margin. Obama’s inability to rejuvenate the economy casts serious doubt on his reelection prospects.

Source: Center for Politics

Carter

H.W. Bush

Ford

Obama W. Bush

Clinton

Johnson

Reagan

Nixon

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Correlation between GDP Growth and Incumbent Reelection Margin

Incumbent

Reelection

Margin

Real GDP Growth in

Reelection Year

Correlation = 0.76

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The race between Obama and Romney remains a dead-heat heading into the final three months of the election cycle.


47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 46% 45% 47% 47% 46% 46%

46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45%

43% 45% 44% 44% 45% 45%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May 1-Jun 15-Jun 1-Jul 15-Jul 1-Aug

Obama vs. Romney

Obama Romney

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When Obamacare is implemented in 2014, its heavy burden will weigh upon many individuals and small businesses. In a real world example that surfaced this week, the price of a Papa Johns pizza will increase $0.14 due to Obamacare.

Tan Tax

•10% tax hike

Medicare surtaxes

•3.8% surtax

Consumer penalties

•2014: $285 or 1% of total household income (whichever is greater)

•2015: $975 or 2% of total household income (whichever is greater)

•2016: $2,085 or 2.5% of total household income (whichever is greater)

Flex spending account limits

•2013: Flexible spending accounts capped at $2,500 with limits on what can be bought with them

Pharmaceutical industry fees

•2013: $2.8 billion

•2014-2016: $3.0 billion

•2017: $4.0 billion

•2018: $4.1 billion

•2019 and beyond: $2,8 billion

Insurance industry fees

•2014: $8 billion

•2015-2016: $11.3 billion

•2017: $13.9 billion

•2018: $14.3 billion

$500 billion Tax Increase

$8.29

$8.43

$8.20

$8.25

$8.30

$8.35

$8.40

$8.45

Current Price After Obamacare

Price of a Papa Johns Pizza

Source: CBS News

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Bryon Allen Partner and COO

202.470.6300

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405.286.6500

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News & Politics

WPA's Weekly Political Brief 120810