Age Platform Conference - 4Dec14

The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.

Rising from the ashes: the role of older workers in driving Eurozone recovery

David Sinclair, International Longevity Centre-UK

@ilcuk @sinclairda


ILC-UK Planning Tomorrow, Today

think tank evidence based policy focussed balanced independent respected experts networked international


Who do we work with?

http://www.housinglin.org.uk/

http://www.dh.gov.uk/health

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=BT&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=G-7vjkyhkckoCM&tbnid=nxYEOO791l2ijM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.uswitch.com/tv/news/2012/11/british_eurosport_comes_to_bt_vision/&ei=VE4SUaz_A6eW0QWizIDgAw&bvm=bv.41934586,d.d2k&psig=AFQjCNHYMZsXtv4deM-_Rd4iW5FijOtRMA&ust=1360240537348380

http://www.pfizer.co.uk/sites/uk/Pages/default.aspx

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=prudential&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=_50fNauR_yu1EM&tbnid=CbdObA4nbf4lAM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.grovelands.co.uk/rdr-crisis-as-prudential-calls-for-a-delay/&ei=uU4SUf7OFPO10QWAx4HwDA&bvm=bv.41934586,d.d2k&psig=AFQjCNEDsAHmnrUtUJrGsb0onG-GTdC0yA&ust=1360240678425765

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=aviva+logo&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=mnNOvtn1gnuOQM&tbnid=-TovLwRQxEAXBM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://symbolphotos.blogspot.com/2011/07/aviva-logo-photos.html&ei=504SUbJ6wqDRBfKtgZAJ&bvm=bv.41934586,d.d2k&psig=AFQjCNFnZD8euFW9hZNyBYAEXCslnzSlJg&ust=1360240740558355

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=actuarial+profession&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=SgmFf07sTBHMiM&tbnid=FvxL9CZiwgu4YM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.maths.manchester.ac.uk/undergraduate/careers/cc/company%20profiles.php&ei=N08SUdzRN_GX0QW6yIC4Cg&bvm=bv.41934586,d.d2k&psig=AFQjCNFvZ9NEnjQQaQ0NPMrjBhCP5ZXiEQ&ust=1360240805691645


Our focus is broad


Explored the role of innovation in extending working lives

Extending working lives

Discussed the macro-economic importance of extending working lives

Highlighted theneed for a new narrative about retirement.

Highlighted the barriers to gradualretirement for older workers.

Made the casefor focusing on the demand forolder workers

Set out thereasons why people retire when they do


And on EU issues


Summary

The EU/Eurozone is going to need

older workers for future economic

growth

“Europe” has a role to play in helping

us increase the average age of exit

from the workforce

Europe 2020 agenda for skills and

jobs could be stronger in its support

for older workers


The Eurozone: where are we now?


Govt debt burdens continuing to rise…


Where next for the Eurozone? The longer term


Results for the Eurozone, Core and Periphery countries

Average annual growth rate in GDP per person (2014-2050)

*All scenarios assume workforce productivity growth of 1.5% per annum over the projected period*Core countries are: Germany, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, France and Luxembourg*Periphery countries are all other Eurozone members.


In summary - What does all this say?

The Eurozone’s economy could lose one in six workers due to population ageing.

Without a substantial rise in workforce productivity to offset the anticipated fall in employment, GDP per capita growth rates across the Eurozone may only reach 1% per year up to 2050.

By 2050, higher participation rates amongst the over 50s could deliver 12.6% more economic output per person (in real terms) than if participation rates by age remain the same.


What factors are associated with working longer: evidence from OECD countries


But “carrots” and not just “sticks” are needed to support working longer


And let’s not forget the critical role of good health in supporting longer working lives


Our economy needs older workers – but how can we

improve on the current situation?


Good news: Participation is up

Across the EU, the employment level of olderworkers has increased by 10% over the past ten years.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mike_miley/9329810305/sizes/m/in/photolist-fdrHyn-8xz3FR-9vnwcd-fAtowj-dzqfDv-dL6bCk-7JYQ65-aeEvcc-aTr5g8-7TmCAE-8xbijT-8x91h7-cCpgPq-cCpeuh-cCpeSj-8x6272-e1Btov-e1H8kd-e1H8i5-e1H7RU-e1H8ym-e1Bt2e-e1H7T7-e1H8qq-e1BtwF-e1Btc4-e1H8M3-e1BtjB-e1BsW4-e1H7Hm-e1BsZz-e1H8Tb-e1BtvD-e1H7NL-e1H835-e1H7US-e1BtJB-7TYQKq-a5s36p-cAsDzu-cAsK5Y-cAsGqo-dQiX5Q-8w36Fd-fCmQeo-7GG6RH-dKD24E-9mPYKU-aeHusB-dPUVKv-dQ1xmQ/

Workers aged over 50 contributed a staggering €2.5trn to Eurozone GDP in 2013.


Changes in Labour Force Participation of Males aged 55-64, 2002-2012


We need to learn from the best: Who “does” older workers well?

http://www.flickr.com/photos/85169589@N00/1027343397/in/photolist-2yMppc-5ohnBt-d5C9Dq-7VXeAX-8Dopm9-8DokGs-8DkdhV-8DnzoQ-8DnF1s-8DnHQ3-cNNv2d-9H5AuG-7J8a4d-8Doqsm-8DjHSg-8DkaAB-8Dkp54-8DonDo-8DkmpV-8DoiuG-8Dog5J-8Dowms-8Dkivt-8Doo45-8Dkpot-8DouFN-8Dk96R-8Dkaht-8DovfQ-8Dkosi-8Dka1T-8DotJq-8DohRm-8DomR1-8DoidN-8Doe4f-8Dk822-8DoiQE-8DohzC-8DjMVF-8DnRwo-8DnSCj-8DjPY2-8DjuKB-8DjCTr-8DnDVG-8DnBPy-8DjNKZ-8DjLXc-8DjtF4-8DnAxy

Over 80% of men and 70% of women aged 55-64 in Sweden are part of the labour force.

The Labour Force Participation of Belgians of the same age is under 50%

Fewer than one in five women aged 55-64 in Malta are in work.


Bad news: Half of 55-64 year olds across Europe are not in work


Bad news: It is not time for complacency

Across Europe, just under one in three of those aged 60-64 are in employment

Just 13% of Hungarians aged 60-64 were in work in 2010 compared to over 60% of Swedes.

There are still countries where fewer than 40% of people aged 55-64 are in employment (Slovenia, Malta, Greece, Croatia, Hungary, Belgium and Poland in 2012).

In one third of Member States, no more than one out of five workers (60-64) is employed.’

Over the period 2002-2008, the average age of labour market withdrawal among the EU-28 had only increased by an estimated 1.3 years, from 60.1 to 61.4

http://www.flickr.com/photos/heartindustry/3539408126/sizes/z/in/photolist-6oLoJ3-6t2ZRY-6tE2Zp-6tE2Zt-6tE2Zz-6yNN61-6zee36-6zg5kx-6zGKop-6Azi8D-6Azj1X-6C6Jc3-6DfPU7-6F7Z4y-6HsjYN-6KxdVN-6PMdG9-6RTF24-6RTVSj-74t2G7-757chN-76mWJ9-77X5Vp-78orde-79ZZG9-7bpyf9-7cLdny-7hJf7s-7jwENJ-7kTpsU-7kY2Ku-7pri8t-7psPSN-7qZWHT-7rtx6Z-7tB2Lw-7uskh2-7wghjp-7wghNr-7wghQF-7wk6Jj-9WDMaM-89dsU1-7TYQKU-dBf26o-84k1CX-eeoG5V-eYkq5p-eYkrkr-eYkt5c-eYkqER/


What should be the priority of European policymakers?

Achieving gender equality In every EU Member State, the life

expectancy of women is higher than that of men, by 5.9 years on

average. Yet despite living longer across the EU, women participate less

in the labour market and retire earlier.

Skilling up the older workforce The current cohort of older workers in

Europe have low levels of education and qualifications compared to

younger groups, and are more likely to have worked in agriculture and

production

Supporting older people in the recession Labour market participation is

up but so is unemployment


Unemployment rate of men aged 55-64 in 2002 and 2012


Long-term unemployed (12+months) as % of total unemployment for people Aged 55-64 in 2012


What should be the priority of European policymakers?

Matching demand and supply in the labour market Is Europe’s

economy creating the right jobs to meet the needs and wishes of the

supply of older workers

Tackling ageism

Improving health

Recognising the diversity of the working experience (e.g. growth in

self employed)


What more could be done under Europe 2020

Creating more, better and more appropriate jobs for older workers e.g. use the social fund; remove default retirement ages; creating the right jobs.

Not just focus on youth: Taking a life course approach to working longer A high percentage of people aged 25-49 across Europe are in employment (78% in 2010), and there is not significant variation across the EU (between 70% in Spain and 85% in Sweden).

Tackle inequalities Promote and support skill development across the lifecourse; tackle poor health.

Better understand and promote what works


Many thanks

David Sinclair

Director

International Longevity Centre-UK

[email protected]

02073400440

Twitter: @ilcuk and @sinclairda

Presentations & Public Speaking

Age Platform Conference - 4Dec14