Communicating El Nino Predictions in Sri Lanka Lareef Zubair and many others, Foundation for Environment,

Climate and Technology and Columbia University

www.tropicalclimate.org lz@tropicalclimate.org lareef@ldeo.columbia.edu www.climate.lk

El Nino makes

it Big in 1997

El Nino’s Impacts

on Precipitation

in Asia (Ropelewski and Halpert,

1986,87).

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Month

Ra

infa

ll (

mm

)

Sri Lanka All India

Precipitation

Climatology

for India and

Sri Lanka

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Anomaly (height) shaded

with NINO3 Temperature (Cold to Warm )

11/17/2016 Lareef Zubair, IRI-MASL Project

OND Lankan Rainfall Anomaly (height) shaded

with NINO3 Temperature (Cold to Warm )

Rice Cultivation in Sri Lanka

• Maha: Main Season from September to March – 4-5 month duration varieties

• Yala: Subsidiary season from May to August – – Water constrained

– Approximately 50% of land is cultivated with Rice

Rainfall Climatology in Rice Growing Areas

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Month

Mo

nth

ly P

recip

itati

on

(m

m)

(AMJJAS) (ONDJFM)

Zubair, International Journal of Climatology, 2002

Average Rainfall- Yala

0200400600800

100012001400

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

Rai

nfal

l (m

m) Average Rainfall-Maha

0

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1000

1500

2000

1952

1956

1960

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1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

Year

Rai

nfal

l (m

m)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

Pro

du

cti

on

(0

00

MT

)

Deviation of Rice Production-Maha

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

Year

Dev

iatio

n of

Pro

duct

ion

(000

MT)

-200-100

0100200

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

Rice Production-Maha

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

Year

Pro

duction (

000M

T)

Pro

du

ctio

n (

00

0M

T)

Sea Surface Temperatures to the West of Sri

Lanka

Coral Reefs and 97-98 El Nino • NARA reported a rise in 5 C in April 98

and unprecendented bleaching of coral reefs (Sunday Times, Oct 24, 99)

Scientific Meetings in Response

to El Nino

Agency Participants Message

Sri Lanka Association for the

Advancement of Science, Director

Meteorology in March 1998

Attended by officers of the

Department of Irrigation

and Meteorology

Drought Likely in 1998 but from

October to December there will

be enhanced rainfall

Sri Lanka Association for the

Advancement of Science, Dr. W.L.

Sumathipala, Open University of Sri

Lanka, May 1998

Attended by scientists and

the public

Drought until June with

Regional Variations. In addition,

enhanced rainfall in October and

November

Sri Lanka Association for the

Advancement of Science, Media

Panel, May 1998

Open to the Media, both

print and television

Explanations regarding droughts

and qualified predictions

National Science Foundation of Sri

Lanka at the request of the Minister of

Science and Technology, June 1998

Agricultural Research

Institute, Universities,

Department of

Meteorology

Participants agreed that none of

the predictions were supported

adequately by data.

1997 Media’s Message:

Monsoons + El Nino = Drought

Dept of Meteorology communication

Research on El Nino in Sri Lankan

Year Authors

Interpretation

1988 T.K. Fernando, W.L. Chandrapala,

P.M.Jayatillake Banda, Department of Meteorology, Sri Lanka

In conference in Brunei and also at December 1998 sessions of the Sri Lanka Association for the Advancement

of Science

The period from January to April is liable to drought

during El Nino. The average rainfall during the January to March period in the El Nino episodes of

1983, 1987 and 1993 show that 55%, 11% and 46% of the land area of Sri Lanka received less than 10% of the seasonal average rainfall.

1997 W. L. Sumathipala, Department of Physics, Open University of Sri Lanka In Proceedings of the Annual Sessions

of the Sri Lanka Association for the Advancement of Science

1997 B.R.V. Punyawardhene, Agrometeorologist, Department of

Agriculture, in the Journal of the National Science Council of Sri Lanka

1998 A. W. Mohottala

Director, Department of Meteorology, Economic Review, People’s Bank

Publication, Colombo.

Scientific Meetings in Response

to El Nino

Agency Participants Message

Sri Lanka Association for the

Advancement of Science, Director

Meteorology in March 1998

Attended by officers of the

Department of Irrigation

and Meteorology

Drought Likely in 1998 but from

October to December there will

be enhanced rainfall

Sri Lanka Association for the

Advancement of Science, Dr. W.L.

Sumathipala, Open University of Sri

Lanka, May 1998

Attended by scientists and

the public

Drought until June with

Regional Variations. In addition,

enhanced rainfall in October and

November

Sri Lanka Association for the

Advancement of Science, Media

Panel, May 1998

Open to the Media, both

print and television

Explanations regarding droughts

and qualified predictions

National Science Foundation of Sri

Lanka at the request of the Minister of

Science and Technology, June 1998

Agricultural Research

Institute, Universities,

Department of

Meteorology

Participants agreed that none of

the predictions were supported

adequately by data.

Communication during El Nino 97-99 Climate and

Impacts

Experts NOAA, U.S.A

CSIRO, Aust.

LSHTM, UK

Media

located in

West

e.g:

Reuters, AP,

Economist,

Time

Applications

Experts

in Agriculture,

Water Resources,

Health

Department of

Meteorology

Coordinating

Agencies SLAAS, NSF

Local Media Sinhala, Tamil

and English

Newpapers,

Television and

Radio

Users Served

e.g:

Rice Farmers

Irrigation

Engineers

Health

Specialists

Tea Planters

Local S and T

Universities

Research Institutes

Indigenous

Predictions

WMO

Mahaweli River Basin Projects January 2000 onwards

http://www.tropicalclimate.org lareef@iri.columbia.edu http://www.climate.lk

Foundation for

Environment, Climate

and Technology - Collaborative Non-Profit

Institute for Climate

Research

• Established in 2003

• Non-Profit

• Hosted and Supported by Mahaweli Authority

• Raises Funding

• 50 Staff Members Trained

• 6 M.S and 8 B.S, and 6 alumni doing PhDs

• Dozens of Papers

• Have obtained 6 of their own projects now

Hydro-meteorological

Advisory Issued Weekly

and Seasonally

Available at www.climate.lk

or directly at

http://fectsl.blogspot.com

and for Maldives at

http://fectmv.blogspot.com

Ongoing Climate Services

Bibliographs

Communication during El Nino 2002 Climate and

Impacts

Experts

Western

Media

Applications

Experts

Department of

Meteorology

Coordinating

Agencies

Local Media

Users Served

Local S and T

Indigenous

Predictions

WMO

IRI, ICTP

2015-2016 Event Avg. Sri Lanka Rainfall and Temperature (2015-2016) Climatology in El Nino, Neutral and La Nina Phases Top: Rainfall Bottom: Temperature

Foundation for Environment, Climate

and Technology

http://www.tropicalclimate.org/ info@tropicalclimate.org http://www.climate.lk

Rainfall Climatology in different ENSO phases

• On average El-Nino reduce JFM rainfall (put a percentage)

•On average El-Nino enhance OND rainfall and La-Nina reduce OND rainfall

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Ra

infa

ll (

mm

)

Axis Title

ElNino LaNina Neutral

Dept of Meteorology communication

Scientific Meetings in Response

to El Nino

Agency Participants Message

Sri Lanka Association for the

Advancement of Science, Director

Meteorology in March 1998

Attended by officers of the

Department of Irrigation

and Meteorology

Drought Likely in 1998 but from

October to December there will

be enhanced rainfall

Sri Lanka Association for the

Advancement of Science, Dr. W.L.

Sumathipala, Open University of Sri

Lanka, May 1998

Attended by scientists and

the public

Drought until June with

Regional Variations. In addition,

enhanced rainfall in October and

November

Sri Lanka Association for the

Advancement of Science, Media

Panel, May 1998

Open to the Media, both

print and television

Explanations regarding droughts

and qualified predictions

National Science Foundation of Sri

Lanka at the request of the Minister of

Science and Technology, June 1998

Agricultural Research

Institute, Universities,

Department of

Meteorology

Participants agreed that none of

the predictions were supported

adequately by data.

Research (Published and In-Review) Regional Climate

Zubair, L., M. Siriwardhana, J. Chandimala, and Z. Yahiya, 2008b, Predictability of Sri

Lankan Rainfall based on ENSO, International Journal of Climatology. 28 (1): 91-101.

Zubair, L., H. Bulathsinhala, M. Siriwardhana, J. Chandimala, Z. Yahiya, 2008f, Climate

Change Assessments for Sri Lanka from Quality Controlled Temperature Data,

International Journal of Climatology, under review.

Zubair, L. and C.F. Ropelewski, 2006c,The strengthening relationship of ENSO and the

North-East Monsoon rainfall over Sri Lanka and Southern India, Journal of Climate, 19 (8):

1567–1575.

Zubair, L., S. C. Rao and Toshio Yamagata, 2003b, The Influence of the Indian Ocean

Dipole on the Sri Lankan Maha rainfall, Geophysical Research Letters,10 (2): 1063-1066

Zubair, L., 2002a, Diurnal and Seasonal Wind Climate at Sita Eliya, Sri Lanka, Theoretical

and Applied Climatology, 71 (1-2): 119-127.

Hydrology / Hydroclimatology

Mahanama, S., Koster, R., Riehl, R. & L. Zubair, 2008d, The role of soil moisture in

seasonal stremflow predictability, submitted, Advances in Water Resources. Under Review.

Zubair, L. and J. Chandimala, 2006a, Epochal Changes in ENSO-Streamflow relations in

Sri Lanka, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 7 (6):1237-1246.

Zubair, L., 2003d, Sensitivity of Kelani streamflow in Sri Lanka to ENSO, Hydrological

Processes, 17 (12) 2439-2448.

Zubair, L. 2003a, ENSO influences on Mahaweli streamflow in Sri Lanka, International

Journal of Climatology, 23(1):91-102.

Water Resources

Chandimala, J. and L. Zubair, 2007, Predictability of Streamflow and Rainfall for Water

Resources Management in Sri Lanka, Journal of Hydrology, 335 (3-4), 303-312.

Zubair, L., R. Perera and H. Manthrithillake, 2003e Using Climate Information for

Mahaweli river basin management, World Water and Environmental Resources Congress

2003, Philadelphia.

Agriculture

S. Peiris, J. Hansen and L. Zubair, 2008a, Use of Seasonal Climate Information to Predict

Coconut Production in Sri Lanka, International Journal of Climatology, 28 (1) : 103-110.

Fernando, N, L. Zubair, T.S.G. Peiris, C.S. Ranasinghe and J. Ratnasiri, 2007, Economic

Value of Climate Variability Impacts on Coconut Production in Sri Lanka, AIACC Working

Paper No. 45, Washington, DC: START.

Zubair, L., R. Perera and Z. Yahiya, 2005, Was the 2002/03 Maha bumper harvest due to El

Nino? Journal of the Institute of Engineers, Sri Lanka, XXXVIII, (4): 63 – 70.

Zubair, L., 2002b, El Nino Influences on Rice Production in Sri Lanka, International

Journal of Climatology, 22 (2):249-260, 2002

Disaster Risk

B. Lyon, L. Zubair, V. Ralapanawe and Z. Yahiya, 2008c, Fine scale evaluation of drought

hazard for tropical climates, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, in review.

Zubair, L., V. Ralapanawe, U. Tennakone, Z. Yahiya, and R. Perera, 2006b, Natural Disaster

Risks in Sri Lanka: Mapping Hazards and Risk Hotspots, Chapter 4, in Natural Disaster

Hotspots Case Studies, Washington, DC: World Bank 2006.

Zubair, L., 2004c, May 2003 disaster in Sri Lanka and Cyclone 01-B in the Bay of Bengal,

Natural Hazards, 33: 303-318, 2004.

Zubair, L., U. Tennakone, Z. Yahiya, J. Chandimala & M.R.A. Siraj, 2003c, What led to the

May 2003 Floods? Journal of the Institute of Engineers, Sri Lanka, XXXVI (3): 51 – 56.

Health

Zubair, L., G. Galapaththy, H. Yang, J. Chandimala, Z. Yahiya, P. Amerasinghe, MN Ward,

SJ Connor, 2008e, Epochal Changes in the Association between El Niño and Malaria in Sri

Lanka, Malaria Journal, under review.

Institutions and Policy

Zubair, L., 2005a, Modernization of Sri Lanka’s Traditional Irrigation System and

Sustainability, Science, Technology and Society, 10 (20): 161-195.

Zubair, L., 2004b, Towards Developing Weather and Climate Prediction for Sri Lanka,

Journal of the Institute of Engineers, Sri Lanka, XXXVII, 2:53-58.

Lareef Zubair, 2004c,Empowering the Vulnerable, TIEMPO, 52:3-6, University of East

Anglia, UK.

Zubair, L., 2002c, Development of Meteorological Studies in Sri Lanka, Journal of the

Institute of Engineers, Sri Lanka, 35 (2): 14-18, 2002

Zubair, L., 2001, An Assessment of Environmental Impact Assessment in Sri Lanka,

Environmental Impact Analysis Review, 21(5): 469-478.

Education and Training

Zubair, L., 2008g, Engendering Multi-disciplinarity and Quality: Environmental Education

at the University of Peradeniya, Journal of Institution of Engineering, Sri Lanka. Under

review.

Zubair, L., 2004a, Weather and Climate in Sri Lanka: A Reference Guide, Natural

Resources Management Services, Kandy, Sri Lanka ISBN 955-8968-00-5.

Temperature and Rainfall climatology -

Current (line) and future (box-plot/green line)

Current (square) and future mean Yala (left) and

Maha (right) rainfall and temperature.

Climate Projections

for the Mid 21st Century

Change Median Precipitation

Change in Temperature

Available Precipitation Change Estimates Eriyagama et al., 2010, IWMI

Uncertainty in GCM Ensemble of Climate

Change Projections for Batalagoda

30

Rice growing season (September to April) mean temperature and

precipitation projected by 20 CMIP5 climate models (denoted by letters A-

T) for Kurunegala (Batalagoda), Sri Lanka, in the 2050s under the high-

emissions RCP8.5 scenario. The Black square represents current

conditions.

E,I,K,O & R Denotes models used in AgMIP Home Stretch

Uncertainties in temperature

and precipitation changes

from the CMIP5 climate

model help place subset of

GCM scenarios in context.

Maha Yala

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1885 1905 1925 1945 1965 1985

Central Year of Sliding Window

Co

rrela

tio

n

Sri Lanka OND 95% 99% All India Summer

Sri Lanka OND

rainfall (Zubair et al., GRL, 2003, GRL,

Zubair and Ropelewski, in

press,JCLI 2005).

Research on El Nino and Sri Lankan

Year Authors

Interpretation

1982 E.M. Rasmussen and T.H. Carpenter, NOAA,

U.S.A.

Rainfall during October to December will increase during El

Nino and rainfall from JFM and JA will show weaker decline

1986, 1987 C.F. Ropelewski and M. Halpert,

NOAA, U.S.A.,

There is an 80% chance that rainfall in Sri Lanka will be wetter

and warmer during the October to December period. The signal

during other periods is weak.

1987, 1996,

1997

R. Suppiah, University of Tsukuba, Japan and

CSIRO.

Increase in rainfall from October to November,

a decline in rainfall in July and August.

1997 S. Barr-Kumarakulasinghe

Department of Marine Science, State

University of New York, Stony Brook, U.S.A.

Internet: http://www.climate-prediction.com/

Automated forecast of rainfall in selected stations based on the

contemporary Southern Oscillation Index. The alogorithm is

based on a regression of Sri Lankan rainfall and the Southern

Oscillation Index.

1998 R.P. Kane, INPE Brazil, International Journal

of Climatology

Support for findings of Suppiah’s.

1996 Bouma, M.J and van der Kaay, H.J., . ENSO

and Malaria in Tropical Medicine and

International Health

Suggest that Malaria epidemics were correlated with El Nino

events.

Communicating El Nino

Predictions in Sri Lanka

Lareef Zubair and many others

Foundation for Environment, Climate and

Technology www.climate.lk and

www.tropicalclimate.org

Columbia University Water Center

water.columbia.edu