Metrostudy 2010 Housing Forecast For Distribution 1 13 10

1

© Copyright Metrostudy 2010

SacramentoReno

Bay Area

Central Coast

LA CoastalInland Empire

San Diego

Prescott

PhoenixTucson

St. Geo/Mesquite

Santa FeAlbuquerque

Boise

Salt Lake Northern CODenver

Colorado Springs

DFW

AustinHouston

San Antonio

Rio Grande Valley

Twin Cities

Chicago

Indianapolis

Nashville

Rockford

BaltimoreSuburban MD/DC

Northern VA/DC

Raleigh/DurhamTriad

Charlotte

Atlanta

North Florida (Jacksonville)

Central Florida (Orlando)

South Florida (Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Palm Beach)

Naples/Ft. Myers

Sarasota/Bradenton

Tampa Bay

Treasure Coast

Central Valley Las Vegas

2


NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEWOverall Consumer Confidence Index-Monthly

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09

Dec. 2009 = 52.9

Source: Conference Board

3


-7,000,000

-5,000,000

-3,000,000

-1,000,000

1,000,000

3,000,000

5,000,000

Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09

NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEWAnnual U.S. Non-Ag Job Growth

12 Months Ending Nov. 2009: <4,659,000> Jobs

Nov. 2009 Unemployment Rate = 10%

Source: BLS

4


200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

No

v-8

9

No

v-9

0

No

v-9

1

No

v-9

2

No

v-9

3

No

v-9

4

No

v-9

5

No

v-9

6

No

v-9

7

No

v-9

8

No

v-9

9

No

v-0

0

No

v-0

1

No

v-0

2

No

v-0

3

No

v-0

4

No

v-0

5

No

v-0

6

No

v-0

7

No

v-0

8

No

v-0

9

THE U.S. HOUSING MARKETANNUAL RATE OF SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING STARTS

Nov. 2009 Annual Starts= 482,000(+5.7% from Nov. 2008)

(-74% from Peak in January 2006)

Thousands

Source: Census Bureau

5


Rank State SF Annual Permit SF Annual Change1 Texas 63,222 -20,4252 Florida 26,574 -16,8023 North Carolina 24,859 -18,9414 California 23,305 -11,7145 Virginia 15,933 -5,3506 Pennsylvania 13,899 -5,6787 Georgia 13,673 -14,0308 South Carolina 13,203 -7,9989 Washington 12,282 -5,519

10 Arizona 12,049 -7,24111 Tennessee 11,174 -5,85812 Louisiana 10,574 -1,51513 Ohio 10,554 -6,95914 Indiana 9,521 -3,32115 New York 9,481 -3,611

Source: Metrostudy - MetroUSA 270,303 -134,962

TOP 15 STATES RANKED BY SF PERMITS – (Nov ’09)

6


123456789

101112131415

Nov

-89

Nov

-90

Nov

-91

Nov

-92

Nov

-93

Nov

-94

Nov

-95

Nov

-96

Nov

-97

Nov

-98

Nov

-99

Nov

-00

Nov

-01

Nov

-02

Nov

-03

Nov

-04

Nov

-05

Nov

-06

Nov

-07

Nov

-08

Nov

-09

THE U.S. HOUSING MARKETMONTHS OF SUPPLY OF NEW HOMES

Nov. 2009 MOS = 7.9 MOS

Months

Source: Census Bureau

7


-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

3Q94

3Q95

3Q96

3Q97

3Q98

3Q99

3Q00

3Q01

3Q02

3Q03

3Q04

3Q05

3Q06

3Q07

3Q08

3Q09

S&P Case Shiller FHFA

THE U.S. HOUSING MARKETANNUAL % CHANGE IN HOME PRICES BY QUARTER

S&P CASE SHILLER and FHFA FIGURES

SOURCE: S&P/Case Shiller & FHFA

FHFA 3Q09 <3.8%>

Case Shiller 3Q09 <8.9>%

8


-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

3Q99 3Q00 3Q01 3Q02 3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09

San Antonio Austin DallasFt. Worth Houston Texas

THE TEXAS HOUSING MARKETSAVERAGE ANNUAL % CHANGE IN HOME PRICES

SOURCE: FHFA

3Q09 Austin = -0.6%

9


-88,900

-50,700

-6,200 -4,300

87,000 76,000

26,100 24,80022,500

-2,500

4,800

9,900

-130,000

-80,000

-30,000

20,000

70,000

120,000

HOUSTON DALLAS/FT. WORTH SAN ANTONIO AUSTIN

2007 2008 Nov-09

JOB GROWTH-MAJOR TEXAS MARKETSAnnual Rate 2007, 2008 & Nov. 2009

SOURCE: Texas Workforce Commission

10


-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Nov-09

AUSTIN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Non-Ag Job Growth: Annual Totals

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Net Job Losses Nov. ’08 to Nov. ’09 = 4,300

Total Non-Ag Employment

780,900

11


75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

3Q99 3Q00 3Q01 3Q02 3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09$0.70

$0.75

$0.80

$0.85

$0.90

$0.95

$1.00

$1.05

$1.10

$1.15

$1.20

$1.25OCCUPANCYRENT RATE

AUSTIN APARTMENT MARKETOccupancy/Rents

Source: Austin Investor Interests

3Q09Avg. Rent = $.93/SFAvg. Occ. = 89%

12


10,000

12,500

15,000

17,500

20,000

22,500

25,000

27,500

30,000

32,500

35,000


Closings

AUSTIN RESALE MARKET-MLS STATISTICSAnnual Closings History

Source: Real Estate Center

Nov. ‘09 Annual Closings = 20,758

13


2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000


1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9ListingsMonths Supply

Listings Months of Supply

AUSTIN RESALE MARKET - MLS STATISTICSActive Listings & Months of Supply


Nov. ’099,836 Listings5.7 MOS

14


8.7

6.1

25.9

6.06.8 6.7

13.4

4.55.9

9.6

26.4

6.4

0

6

12

18

24

30

<$ 125K $ 125K-$ 175K $ 175K-$ 250K $ 250K-$ 400K $ 400K-$ 750K >$ 750K

Prev. Owned New Const.

MOS

AUSTIN RESALE MARKET – MLS DATASingle Family MOS By Price Range-November 2009

Previously Owned & New Construction

Source: ABOR

15


$90,000

$115,000

$140,000

$165,000

$190,000

$215,000

$240,000

$265,000

$290,000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Nov-09

Average Price

Median Price

AUSTIN RESALE MARKET-MLS STATISTICSAverage & Median Price Trend

Nov. 2008 Avg. =$236,041

(Single Family/TH/Condo)

Nov. 2008 Median= $176,300

(Single Family)


16


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

<$100K $100K-$150k $150K-$200K $200K-$300K $300K-$500K +$500K

2008 2009

AUSTIN MLS CLOSED SALESDistributed by Sales Price

YTD Sept. 2008 vs. YTD Sept. 2009

SOURCE: Austin Board of Realtors

17


8,012

6,490

15,940

10,26011,225

12,436

14,638

12,190

10,450

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

THE AUSTIN NEW HOME MARKETANNUAL STARTS TREND: 2001 to 2009

Detached Housing

18


6,4906,5116,5877,3018,012

9,315

10,399

11,543

12,436

14,540

16,502

13,152

14,009

15,940

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09

THE AUSTIN NEW HOME MARKETANNUAL STARTS TREND: 3Q06 to 4Q09

Detached Housing

19


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

4Q95 4Q96 4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09

Annual Closings

Annual Starts

THE AUSTIN NEW HOME MARKETANNUAL STARTS & CLOSINGS

DETACHED HOUSING

6,490 Annual Starts

7,487 Annual Closings

20


1,264

833

608

433368

308 300

203 172 166

536

734

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

CP / Le a n. R R oc k Ky l e / Buda S W A us. P f l ug. G. Town M a nor D . Va l l e H ut t o S E Aust i n Dr .S pr i ngs

L. Tr a v i s

THE AUSTIN NEW HOME MARKET2009 ANNUAL STARTS BY SUB-MARKET

Detached Housing

21


0500

1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000

<$150 $150-$200

$200-$300

$300-$500

$500-$750

>$750

2006 2007 2008 2009

THE AUSTIN NEW HOME MARKETAnnual Starts by Price Range

The Detached Market

22


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

4Q89 4Q91 4Q93 4Q95 4Q97 4Q99 4Q01 4Q03 4Q05 4Q07 4Q09

TOTAL NEW HOME INVENTORY TREND(Under Construction & Finished Vacant Units)

Detached Housing

Under. Const. Inv. = 1,420 Units Fin. Vac. Inv. = 1,703 UnitsTotal Inv. = 3,494 Units

23


5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q090

6

12

18

24

30

36

42

48Annual Starts Vacant Developed Lots Months of Supply

Annual Starts/Lot Inventory MOS

THE AUSTIN NEW HOME MARKETVacant Developed Lot Trend

The Detached Market

24


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-09 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10

Annual Postings

Annual Foreclosure Sales

FORECLOSURE POSTING & SALES TRENDTravis & Williamson Counties

Annual Rate

SOURCE: Real Estate Foreclosures

Annual Postings + 61% from Jan. ’09 to Jan. ‘10

Annual Sales +24% from Dec. ’08 to Dec. ‘09

25


2.9%3.0%3.0%

3.1%3.1%

3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.4%

3.5%3.6%3.7%

4.4%4.5%

4.7%5.2%

5.4%5.5%

6.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%

Elmira, NYBurlington, NCPittsfield, MA

State College, PASioux City, IA-

Lawton, OKAbilene, TXWichita, KS

Amarillo, TXTyler, TX

Midland, TXDubuque, IA

St. Joseph, MO-Brownsville, TXJonesboro, ARTexarkana, TXHinesville, GA

San Angelo, TXCorpus Christi,

Wichita Falls, TX

Top 20 MSAs-Highest Rates of Home AppreciationAnnual Change as of 3Q09

SOURCE: FHFA

26


-13.4%-13.4%-13.5%-13.6%-13.8%-13.9%-14.0%

-14.7%-14.9%-14.9%

-15.4%-15.8%

-16.2%-16.9%

-17.5%-18.6%

-19.4%-20.5%

-22.5%-24.5%

-35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%

Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZPrescott, AZ

Vallejo-Fairfield, CAMadera-Chowchilla, CA

Fresno, CAModesto, CA

St. George, UTOrlando-Kissimmee, FL

Ocala, FLVisalia-Porterville, CA

Ft. Lauderdale, FLPort St. Lucie, FL

Lakeland-Winter Haven, FLPhoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ

Reno-Sparks, NVMerced, CA

Bend, ORMiami, FL

Las Vegas-Paradise, NVEl Centro, CA

Bottom 20 MSAs-Lowest Rates of Home Appreciation Annual Change as of 3Q09

SOURCE: FHFA

27


65.0%

48.0%

45.0%

37.0%

35.0%

24.0%

24.0%

22.0%

20.0%

20.0%

11.0%

11.0%

6.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Nevada

Arizona

Florida

Michigan

California

Georgia

Virginia

Maryland

Ohio

Idaho

New Mexico

TEXAS

Oklahoma

STATES WITH HIGHEST SHARE OF NEGATIVE EQUITY AS OF THIRD QUARTER 2009

SOURCE: First American Core Logic

28


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Hou

ston

Da l

las /

Ft W

orth

Orl

ando

Phoe

nix

Mar

y lan

d

Aus

t in

San

Ant

onio

MD

- C

Nor

ther

n Vi

rgin

ia

Cha

rlott

e

Cen

t Cal

Inla

nd E

mpi

r e

Ral

eigh

-Dur

ham

NoV

a-C

Chi

cago

Atl a

nta

Salt

Lake

Cit y

So C

a l C

oast

Las

Vega

s

Tam

pa

San

Fran

c isc

o

Jack

sonv

i lle

Nas

hvill

e

Min

neap

olis

Den

ver

National Comparison – 3Q09Annual Starts Comparison

Austin

29


0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Chi

cag o

Or l

and

o

Atl a

nta

Hou

ston

Pho

enix

Las

Veg

a s

San

Fra

n cis

co

Dal

las/

F t W

orth

So

Cal

Coa

s t

Mar

y lan

d

Inla

nd E

mp

ire

Cha

rlot

te

Ral

eigh

-Dur

ham

Den

ver

Sal

t La k

e C

ity

Nor

the r

n V

irg i

nia

Cen

t Cal

Tam

pa

Jack

sonv

ille

Sa n

Ant

oni

o

Min

neap

olis

Aus

t in

MD

- C

NoV

a-C

Nas

h vill

e

Austin

National Comparison – 3Q09Total New Housing Inventory - # of Units

30


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Orl

and

o

Atla

nta

Ch i

cago

Las

Veg

as

Pho

enix

So

Ca l

Coa

st

Hou

ston

Dal

las/

F t W

orth

San

Fra

ncis

co

Mar

y lan

d

Cha

r lot

t e

Ral

eigh

-Dur

ham

J ack

sonv

ille

Den

ver

Inla

nd E

mp

ire

Tam

pa

Cen

t Cal

Mi n

neap

olis

Sal

t Lak

e C

ity

Nor

ther

n V

irgi

nia

Nas

h vill

e

San

Ant

oni

o

Aus

t in

MD

- C

NoV

a-C

Austin

National Comparison – 3Q09Total Finished Vacant Inventory - # of Units