1 Socio-technical transitions to low-

carbon consumption: Developing markets for electric mobility

Jonn Axsen Simon Fraser University

July 8, 2015

Our Common Future under Climate Change

Section 2230: Transport

Paris, France

Sustainable Transportation Research Team Lead by Dr. Jonn Axsen

Themes:

• Technology adoption

• Consumer motivation

• Citizen acceptance of energy and policy

• Modeling energy and policy

Canadian PEV Study (CPEVS)

Report now available http://www.rem.sfu.ca/people/faculty/jaxsen/cpevs/

3

53 kWh

24 kWh

16 kWh

Huge variety among PEVs

4 kWh

~117 km electric range

Nissan Leaf

~56 km ~500 km gasoline

~300km electric range

Tesla Roadster

Toyota Prius PHV

Chevy Volt

20 km ~800 km gasoline

Plug-in

Hybrid

(PHEV)

Pure

Electric

(EV)

Comparing Battery Sizes:

To meet 2050 reduction targets, we need

PEVs to be majority of new market share by

2040…

Source: Sykes and Axsen (forthcoming), CIMS BC model policy simulation

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

“Ambitious” policies

(no ZEV)

+ ZEV mandate

LCFS: 15% less GHG intensive w/ biofuels

CAFE: 60% less fuel intensive by 2050

“Ambitious”

Policies Carbon Tax: $30/t 2015 to $120/t 2050

ZEV Subsidies: $5000 in 2015 and 2020

PEV

new

market

share

5 …a socio-technical transition

PEV policy Vehicle

design

Charging type

and speed

Battery

costs

Awareness

and confusion

Latent

demand

Design

interests

Learning and

social

influence

Technology Social

GHG and

grid impacts

6

Today’s Flow

Data Collection (CPEVS)

Barrier: Low awareness

Opportunity: Latent demand

Barrier: Limited supply

Policy implications

Data collection:

The Canadian Plug-in Electric

Vehicle Survey (CPEVS)

Passenger Vehicle Owners

A perspective on the PEV market:

Now and future

8

New vehicle buyers

Potential

“Early Mainstream”

PEV buyers

(NVOS, 2013

n = 1754)

PEV “Pioneers”

(PEVOS, 2014/15

n = 126)

CPEVS: Reflexive, multi-method design

Canadian “Mainstream” Survey (n = 1754), generally

representative of new vehicle buying households

Barrier:

Low PEV awareness

12 Confusion of innovations:

“How is each of the following vehicle fueled?”

Source: Axsen, Bailey and Kamiya (2013), CPEVS 2013 Preliminary Report

(Hybrid)

(Plug-in

Hybrid)

(Pure

electric)

Opportunity:

High latent demand

Latent demand: one-third of new vehicle

buyers want a PEV (mostly PHEVs)

Source: Axsen, Goldberg et al. (2015), Canadian PEV Study (CPEVS)

15 PEVs can appeal to consumers with a

wide variety of motives (tech, enviro, etc.)

9

11

13

15

17

19

9 11 13 15 17 19

Tech-

oriented

Lifestyle

(Score,

1-25)

Enviro-oriented

Lifestyle (Score, 1-25)

CV

buyer

HEV

buyer

Tech-

enviro

Strong-

enviro

Techie

Concerned

Open

Unengaged

Source: Axsen et al. (2015), Energy Economics

Barrier:

Lack of PEV supply

Important barriers to PEV sales

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Lack of PEV availability (dealerships)

Lack of PEV variety (makes/models)

Only those with home charging access

Only buyers that are "familiar"

Potential (Latent) Demand for PEV's

PEV market share (2020)

Source: Wolinetz and Axsen (forthcoming)

“Constrained” forecast,

without substantial policy

~1% market share

Policy implications:

Need for supply-focused

PEV policies

19

Comparing PEV policies

Demand-

focused

$ incentives e.g. $5000 rebate, or income tax break,

home charger rebate

Other incentives e.g. HOV lane access, free parking

Home chargers e.g. building codes

Public chargers Installation of non-home chargers

Info campaign Disseminating information about PEVs

Supply-

focused

ZEV mandate Automakers must sell a minimum market

share of zero-emissions vehicle

Fuel standard Fuel suppliers must reduce carbon intensity

R&D support Subsidies for automakers to develop PEVs

Demand-focused policies can get

PEVs only so far…

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Strong Demand Policy

Weak Demand Policy

PEV

new

Market

share

(BC)

Source: Wolinetz and Axsen (forthcoming)

Supply-focused policies may be

essential for PEV “success”

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Strong Demand Policy

Strong Supply and Demand Policy

California ZEV targets

Weak Demand Policy

PEV

new

Market

share

(BC)

Source: Wolinetz and Axsen (forthcoming)

A ZEV mandate may be essential to

achieve 2050 GHG targets

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2050 GHG Target

80% below 2005 GHGs

Current Policies

“Ambitious” Policies

(no ZEV)

+ZEV mandate

LCFS: 15% less GHG intensive w/ biofuels

CAFE: 60% less fuel intensive by 2050

“Ambitious”

Policies Carbon Tax: $30/t 2015 to $120/t 2050

ZEV Subsidies: $5000 in 2015 and 2020

Passenger

vehicle

GHGs

(well-to-

wheel)

Source: Sykes and Axsen (forthcoming), CIMS BC model policy simulation

23 Triggering a PEV transition: Policy priorities

1. Strong supply-focused policy (ZEV mandate)

2. Strong demand-focused policies

– Financial incentives

– Other incentives (HOV, parking)

– Home charging (codes)

– Other charging (workplace, public)

Extra

25

Home

Charging

Work

Charging

Charging is only one issue…

Level 1: Regular outlet (1-2 kW)

Level 2: Your dryer outlet (3-6 kW)

Level 3: Fast charging (20-200 kW)

Public

Source: Duvall (2009), Plug-in 2009

66% of Canadian

Car buyers

already have

Level 1 access