Drought Impacts and the Disaster Relief in the Agricultural Sector

Biennial U.S. Drought Monitor ForumDesert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada

April 14 – 16, 2015

“Drought Impacts and Disaster Relief in the Agricultural Sector”Brad Rippey, USDA Meteorologist, Washington, D.C.

N

Neesopah Reservoir,Kiowa County, CO Prowers County, CO

Nee Noshe Reservoir,Kiowa County, CO

Aug. 26, 2011

Neeskah Reservoir,Kiowa County, CO

Rt. 287

Contiguous U.S.60% D0 – D437% D1 – D4

Contiguous U.S.60% coverage of D0-D4greatest since 10/1/2013

1

23

3230 30

2630

25 25 2622

16

11 108 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 7

5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 86 6 6

15 15

22 22

9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 86 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 34 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 53 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11 1 2 2 2 2 1 1

0

20

40

60

80

100

Apr 8 2014 Apr 15 2014 Apr 22 2014 Apr 29 2014 May 6 2014 May 13 2014 May 20 2014 May 27 2014Jun 3 2014 Jun 10 2014 Jun 17 2014 Jun 24 2014Jul 1 2014 Jul 8 2014 Jul 15 2014 Jul 22 2014 Jul 29 2014 Aug 5 2014 Aug 12 2014 Aug 19 2014 Aug 26 2014 Sep 2 2014 Sep 9 2014 Sep 16 2014 Sep 23 2014 Sep 30 2014Oct 7 2014 Oct 14 2014 Oct 21 2014 Oct 28 2014 Nov 4 2014 Nov 11 2014 Nov 18 2014 Nov 25 2014 Dec 2 2014 Dec 9 2014 Dec 16 2014 Dec 23 2014 Dec 30 2014 Jan 6 2015 Jan 13 2015 Jan 20 2015 Jan 27 2015 Feb 3 2015 Feb 10 2015 Feb 17 2015 Feb 24 2015 Mar 3 2015 Mar 10 2015 Mar 17 2015 Mar 24 2015 Mar 31 2015 Apr 7 2015

Percent

Date Moderate or more intense drought (D1+)

Severe or more intense drought (D2+)

Extreme or more intense drought (D3+)

Exceptional drought (D4)

United States Corn Areas Located in Drought

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

U.S. Corn Yield, Bushels Per Acre1985-2015*

1988

1993

1995

1994

2004 2009

20122010-12: First time U.S. corn yield fell

three years in a row since 1928-30.2010-12: First time U.S. corn yield fell

three years in a row since 1928-30.

2014

* The projected 2015 U.S. corn yield of167.2 bushels/acre is adapted from

“USDA Agricultural Projections to 2024.”

* The projected 2015 U.S. corn yield of167.2 bushels/acre is adapted from

“USDA Agricultural Projections to 2024.”

2523 22

1922

19 19 1916

11

6 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 5 5 53 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3

5 68 9 10 10

6 5 5

13 13

18 18

3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 22 1 1 2 2

0

20

40

60

80

100


Percent





United States Soybean Areas Located in Drought


44 44 45 4448

45 45 4543

4038 38

36 37 36 35 35 3634 34 35

3330 30 29 30 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 27 28 28 29 29 29

26 25 26 26 26 27 28 27 27 2730 31

36 36

29 30 30 3134

32 32 32 3128 28

26 26 25 24 23 22 21 21 21 21 20 19 19 19 20 20 19 19 19 19 18 18 17 17 17 18 17 18 17 17 18 1816 16 17 17 16 16 16 17 17 18

15 15 1618

22 21 22 21 2117 16 15

13 13 13 12 1210 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10

57 8 9 10 11 11

86 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6

0

20

40

60

80

100


Percent





United States Cattle Areas Located in Drought


Million Head of Cattle on Jan. 1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

TX

OK

Oklahoma lost 23.6% of its pre-drought cattle inventory—1.3 million head—during the three-year period ending Jan. 1, 2013. Texas lost 16.5% of its pre-drought cattle inventory—2.2 million head—during the four-year period ending Jan. 1, 2014.

However, Oklahoma and Texas collectively gained 1.0 million head of cattle during the one-year period ending Jan. 1, 2015—78.5% of the national total.

52 52 5153 54

52 52 51 5148 47 47 46 46 46 46 47 48

46 46 4642

35 35 36 35 35 35 35 35 36 3537 37 37 37 37 37 37 37

35 36 36 37 37 3634 33 33

3538

43 4339

41 42 42 43 43 43 4341

34 33 32 32 3128

26 26 2522 21 22 21

19 19 2022 22 22 22 22 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 20 20 19 20 20 20 19 19 19 20 21 22

17 1822 23

31 30 3028 29

2118 17

12 12 12 11 118 9 8 8 9

7 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 810 10

12 13

46 7

10 11 12 139

75 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4

0

20

40

60

80

100


Percent





United States Winter Wheat Areas Located in Drought


State 11/23 2/1 4/5 ChangeS. Dakota 68% 58% 29% -39Nebraska 69 61 34 -35Kansas 61 46 33 -28Oklahoma 54 41 43 -11Montana 70 58 61 - 9Illinois 56 49 56 0Colorado 52 38 55 + 3Texas 49 42 54 + 5

Wheat G/EX Condition DeclinesFrom Nov. 23, 2014 – Apr. 5, 2015

Percent of Normal PrecipitationOct. 1, 2014 - Apr. 12, 2015

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

401995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Autumn to Spring Change in U.S. Winter Wheat ConditionFrom the Last Autumn Report to the First Spring Report, 1995-96 to 2014-15

Data Source: USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service

Calculations are based on the following rating index:Excellent = 4; Good = 3; Fair = 2; Poor = 1; Very Poor = 0

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

201996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Spring Change in U.S. Winter Wheat ConditionFrom the First to the Last Spring Report, 1996 to 2015

Data Source: USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service

Severe April Freeze

?

Calculations are based on the following rating index:Excellent = 4; Good = 3; Fair = 2; Poor = 1; Very Poor = 0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1909 1913 1917 1921 1925 1929 1933 1937 1941 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013

Percent U.S. Winter Wheat Abandonment1909-2014

19171933

1935 20021951

1955 19891928 1996 ’061983

Years since the 1950s withW.W. abandonment > 22%:

1983, 1989, 1991, 1996,2001, 2002, 2006, and 2013

’13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Percent Texas Cotton Abandonment1980-2014

Source: USDA

19861992

19982006

2011

2013

American River in Sacramento, California

November 7, 2014

Review: 2014-15 “Wet” Season

All in Drought; 82% in D3 to D4 98% in Drought; 67% in D3 to D4

0

5

10

15

20

25

301-Dec 8-Dec

15-Dec 22-Dec 29-Dec

5-Jan

12-Jan 19-Jan 26-Jan 2-Feb 9-Feb

16-Feb 23-Feb 2-Mar 9-Mar

16-Mar 23-Mar 30-Mar

Source: California Department of Water Resources

Daily Sierra Nevada Snowpack (Inches) vs. Normal

Normal

2012-13

2011-12

2013-14

2014-15

Graphic courtesyAlexander Tardy,NWS San Diego

Sierra Nevada Snowpack on April 1

California PrecipitationAll 36-Month Periods Ending in September

45.88” (-21.44”)

California PrecipitationOctober – March 1895-96 to 2014-15

13.50” (-5.21”);25th driestIn 120 yrs.

Until 2011-12 to 2014-15, California has never had fourconsecutive October-March periods ranked in the driestone-fourth of the historical distribution.

California Average TemperatureAll 36-Month Periods Ending in September

59.8°F (+2.4°F)

California Average TemperatureOctober – March 1895-96 to 2014-15

53.9°F (+5.8°F)

5

10

15

20

25

30

351-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May

1-Jun 1-Jul

1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

California Reservoir Storage, Million Acre-Feet, 1977 and 2010-14


Note: One acre-foot is equal to 325,851 gallons, or the amount of water it takes to cover one acre to a depth of one foot.

2011

2010Avg.

2013

2014

1977

20122015

20

40

60

80

100

120

1401-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May

1-Jun 1-Jul

1-Aug 1-Sep 1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

California Reservoir Storage, Percent of Normal, 1977 and 2010-14


2011

20102012

2013

1977

20142015

California Reservoirs, Recharge and WithdrawalMillion Acre-Feet and Percent of Average

Recharge Withdrawal 2010-11 12.47 (151%) 2011 8.78 (107%)2011-12 5.79 (70%) 2012 11.54 (140%)2012-13 6.52 (79%) 2013 11.49 (139%)2013-14 4.17 (51%) 2014 7.75 (94%)2014-15 6.46* (78%) 2015 N/AAvg. 8.24 Avg. 8.24

Note: The 2014-15 recharge value has been updated through Mar. 31. Recharge and withdrawal values are based on end-of-month statistics, not daily readings.

California Agricultural Production Statistics, 2013

• The state’s 77,900 farms and ranches received a record $46.4 billion for their output in 2013, up from $44.7 billion in 2012 and $43.3 billion in 2011.

• In 2012, California was the number one state in cash farm receipts with 11.3 percent of the U.S. total.

• That year, the state accounted for 15 percent of domestic receipts for crops and 7.1 percent of the U.S. revenue for livestock and livestock products.

Source: California Department of Agriculture:http://www.cdfa.ca.gov/Statistics/

California Agricultural Production Statistics, 2013

• Milk: $7.6 billion• Almonds: $5.8 billion• Grapes: $5.6 billion• Cattle, Calves:

$3.1 billion• Strawberries:

$2.2 billion

Source: California Department of Food and Agriculture

• Walnuts: $1.8 billion• Lettuce: $1.7 billion

• Hay: $1.6 billion• Tomatoes:

$1.2 billion

• Nursery Plants:

$1.2 billionNote: These ten commodities accounted for approximately two-thirds of California’s agricultural cash receipts in 2013.

California Production, Selected Crops

Crop 2013 2014 Reduction

Corn 35.1* 17.6 50%

Rice 47.6* 36.4 24%

Cotton 943* 730 23%

Hay 1.836 * 1.496 19%

* Respective production units, by crop, are: corn, million bushels; cotton, thousand 480-pound bales; rice, million hundredweight (cwt); and hay (not including alfalfa), million tons.

Source: U.S. Crop Production Highlights, October 10, 2014:http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProd/CropProd-10-10-2014.pdf

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

30-Apr 7-May 14-May 21-May 28-May

4-Jun 11-Jun 18-Jun 25-Jun

2-Jul 9-Jul 16-Jul 23-Jul 30-Jul 6-Aug 13-Aug 20-Aug 27-Aug 3-Sep 10-Sep 17-Sep 24-Sep 1-Oct 8-Oct 15-Oct 22-Oct 29-Oct 5-Nov

Index

Date

CA PASTURE AND RANGE Condition Index

1998

2008

2011

2012

2013

2014

Based on NASS crop progress data. Index Weighting: Excellent = 4; Good = 3; Fair = 2; Poor = 1; Very Poor = 0

2012

2011

2008

2014

Late-summer and autumn rangeland and pastureconditions were better in 2014, as compared to 2012 and 2013, due to beneficial spring rainfall.

2013

1998

Commodity 2013 2014 2015

Cotton 280,000 212,000 155,000Corn 600,000 520,000 430,000Oats 150,000 110,000 120,000Barley 95,000 80,000 70,000Wheat 690,000 495,000 490,000Rice 567,000 434,000 408,000Sunflowers 58,500 47,000 44,000

Total 2,440,500 1,898,000 1,717,000

California, Planted Acreage for 2013-14 and Planting Intentions for 2015

- USDA’s Prospective Plantings report, issued on March 31, 2015, provided the first official look at California’s 2015 planting intentions.

- Intended cotton acreage is down 45% from 2013.

- Other crops surveyed are down from 20 to 30% from 2013.

- Total 2015 acreage for the crops listed is down 30% from two years ago and down almost 10% from 2014.

• Streamlines the USDA Secretarial designation process by eliminating steps from the current process;

• A reduced interest rate for emergency loans that effectively lowers the current rate from 3.75 percent to 2.25 percent;

• Preserves the ability of a state governor or Indian Tribal Council to request a Secretarial Disaster Designation;

• Removes the requirement that a request for a disaster designation be initiated only by a state governor or Indian Tribal Council;

• Further streamlines the disaster designation process for severe drought occurrences by utilizing the U.S. Drought Monitor as a tool to automatically trigger disaster areas with no further documentation;

• Does not impose any new requirements on producers or the public.• In 2012, led to drought disaster declarations in 2,254 primary

counties in 39 states.

“Fast Track” Secretarial Disaster Designation Process

• U.S. Drought Monitor Usage by FSA

• Agricultural Act of 2014 (“Farm Bill”) re-authorizes the Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP)– Grazing loss because of drought on owned or leased grazing

land or pastureland that is physically located in a county experiencing:

• D2 intensity for at least 8 consecutive weeks during normal grazing period will be eligible to receive an amount equal to 1 monthly payment

• D3 intensity during the normal grazing period will be eligible to receive an amount equal to 3 monthly payments

• D3 intensity for at least 4 weeks or a D4 intensity any time during the grazing period will be eligible to receive an amount equal to 4 monthly payments

• D4 intensity for at least 4 weeks during the normal grazing period will be eligible to receive an amount equal to 5 monthly payments

Retroactive LFP Payouts

The 2014 Farm Bill contains permanent livestock disaster programs including the Livestock Forage Disaster Program, which will help producers in California and other areas recover from the drought. At President Obama’s direction, USDA made implementation of the disaster programs a top priority. Producers were able to sign up for the livestock disaster programs for losses not only for 2014 but for losses they experienced in 2012 and 2013. While these livestock programs took over a year to get assistance out the door under the last Farm Bill, USDA committed to cut that time by more than 80 percent in 2014 and began sign-up in April.

• 2008 “Farm Bill” Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) Payouts (financial assistance to producers who suffered grazing losses due to drought or fire on or after January 1, 2008, and before October 1, 2011, during the calendar year in which the loss occurs):– 2008 calendar year: $165,540,837– 2009 calendar year: $ 98,739,950– 2010 calendar year: $ 33,334,458– 2011 calendar year: $180,950,088– LFP total, 2008-11: $478,565,333

• 2014 “Farm Bill” Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) Payouts (financial assistance to producers who suffered grazing losses due to drought or fire from October 1, 2011, to the present, during the calendar year in which the loss occurs):– 2011 calendar year: $ 179,267,632– 2012 calendar year: $2,330,914,983– 2013 calendar year: $1,396,870,077– 2014 calendar year: $ 742,329,470– LFP total, 2011-14: $4,649,382,162

Agricultural Field at SunriseSacramento, California

November 7, 2014

Thank you!

• Contact info

- e-mail: [email protected]

- phone: (202) 720-2397

• U.S. Drought Monitor Usage by FSA

• Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (“Farm Bill”) authorizes the Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP)

– Grazing loss because of drought on owned or leased grazing land or pastureland that is physically located in a county experiencing:

• D2 intensity for at least 8 consecutive weeks during normal grazing period will be eligible to receive an amount equal to 1 monthly payment

• D3 intensity during the normal grazing period will be eligible to receive an amount equal to 2 monthly payments

• D3 intensity for at least 4 weeks or a D4 intensity any time during the grazing period will be eligible to receive an amount equal to 3 monthly payments

U.S. Billion-Dollar Disasters, 1980-2014

1. Hurricane Katrina 2005 $151B

2. Superstorm Sandy 2012 $ 67

3. Hurricane Andrew 1992 $ 45

4. Drought 1988 $ 40

5. Flooding 1993 $ 34

6. Hurricane Ike 2008 $ 33

7. Drought 2012 $ 31

8. Drought 1980 $ 29

9. Hurricane Ivan 2004 $ 26

10. Hurricane Wilma 2005 $ 23

Source: National Climatic Data Center (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/)

U.S. Billion-Dollar Disasters, 1980-2014

11. Hurricane Rita 2005 $22B

12. Hurricane Charley 2004 $21

13. Hurricane Hugo 1989 $17

14. Hurricane Irene 2011 $14

15. S. Plains Drought 2011 $13

16. Hurricane Frances 2004 $12

17. T.S. Allison 2001 $11

18. Drought 2002 $11

19. Flooding 2008 $11

20. Tornadoes, Etc. 2011 $11

21. Drought 2013 $11

Science

Drought Impacts and the Disaster Relief in the Agricultural Sector