Hydrological Forecasting System in Australia

Simon Pierotti

HyFS

HyFS

1. Introduction to HyFS

2. End to End Forecasting / Operational best practice

3. Manageable and Maintainable Configuration

4. Future/Extensions

5. Summary and Questions

Netherlands

HyFS Business Case

• HyFS is national hydrological modelling and forecasting system for:

Flood Forecasting and Warning Services New Short-Term Streamflow Forecasting Service

Efficient, robust and sustainable flood warning service

National System – service delivery from regional and national offices.

Meets operational best practice – high level of availability, ready for the next COI

Better use of weather forecasting guidance.

Support current forecasting techniques.

Realise benefits from investment in R&D - can evolve to utilise new advances and.

Supports collaboration - with forecasting agencies in Australia and Overseas.

HyFS Project Time Lines

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Stage 4

Stage 5

T0

Requirements (2012)

Data System (HyDS) (2013/14)

Model Migration (2014)

Operationalise (2015)

Stage 6

Extension (2015/16)

Functional Modelling System (2013)

HyFS and Delft-FEWS

Partner Agencies

HyFS Web Reports

Training

Forecaster

STF Product Generator

Public Clients

HyFS HyDS

WET HyFI Tide and Surge NexGenFWS

NWP Rain and River

Rainfields Flow Forecasts

Warning Entry Tool

Flood Dashboard

Metadata

+ Archiving, Forecast Performance, Post Flood Analysis, and Model Calibration

Delft-FEWS components

Delft-FEWS components

Time StudioEnviromon

Data Provider

Automatic Weather Station

Remote Observer

NowCast

ACCESS C G & RGFE Forecast Rain PME/ECMWF/SDI

Ocean Surge Forecast (CAWCR)

AIFS(Regional)

HCS Decoder

Hydro Data Decoder

Hydro DB

HyFS Data Management

System

FEWS

Manual Quality

Control (MQC)

Rainfields Data Collector

Derived Data Product

Generator

CMSS

HyDS "The right data at the right time at the right place"

• New data sources (NWP, Radar Rainfall, Tidal Anomaly)

• Finger-grained data (15 Min Rain Period data)

• Highly available

• Data and data systems need to provide value to the whole organisation

• Existing regional systems are robust but are not easily extendable

• Centralised data solution

HyFS and Delft-FEWS

Partner Agencies

HyFS Web Reports

Training

Forecaster

STF Product Generator

Public Clients

HyFS HyDS

WET HyFI Tide and Surge NexGenFWS

NWP Rain and River

Rainfields Flow Forecasts

Warning Entry Tool

Flood Dashboard

Metadata

+ Archiving, Forecast Performance, Post Flood Analysis, and Model Calibration

Delft-FEWS components

Delft-FEWS components

Size of the National System

• 5000 Rain Gauges

• 3000 River Gauges

• 150 URBS models

• 50 SWIFT models

+ Peak Heights

+ Calibration Events

+ Historical Floods

HyFS Features

• NWP Rainfall Forecasts

• Radar Rainfields

• Rainfall Forecast Comparisons

• Real-Time IFD

• Peak Heights

HyFS and Delft-FEWS

Partner Agencies

HyFS Web Reports

Training

Forecaster

STF Product Generator

Public Clients

HyFS HyDS

WET HyFI Tide and Surge NexGenFWS

NWP Rain and River

Rainfields Flow Forecasts

Warning Entry Tool

Flood Dashboard

Metadata

+ Archiving, Forecast Performance, Post Flood Analysis, and Model Calibration

Delft-FEWS components

Delft-FEWS components

Flood Warnings

• Forecasts and Warnings are developed based on:

o Modelling o peak heights o historical floods o discussions with external

agencies

• Text based Warning on the public web

WET - Warning Entry Tool

New tool to:

• Identify explicit spatial areas

• Produce standard formats

• Encode numerical forecasts for verification and training

Integration with HyFS

• Official issued warning available to the forecaster

HyFS and Delft-FEWS

Partner Agencies

HyFS Web Reports

Training

Forecaster

STF Product Generator

Public Clients

HyFS HyDS

WET HyFI Tide and Surge NexGenFWS

NWP Rain and River

Rainfields Flow Forecasts

Warning Entry Tool

Flood Dashboard

Metadata

+ Archiving, Forecast Performance, Post Flood Analysis, and Model Calibration

Delft-FEWS components

Delft-FEWS components

Operational Best Practice

Meet Statutory Requirements: • Simulations • Forecaster Notes • Run info etc. Post Flood Activities: • Forecasting performance • Check and recalibrate models • Automated report generation • Reports saved on the archive

Training: • Water Coach Scenarios

Flood Operations: • Access to archived reports from the OC • Historical events

ARCHIVE

Post Flood Activities

Forecast Performance Reports:

• Asses the performance of the final forecasts from WET

• Asses performance of model simulations

Calibration Reports:

• Calibrate and verification

HyFS and Delft-FEWS

Partner Agencies

HyFS Web Reports

Training

Forecaster

STF Product Generator

Public Clients

HyFS HyDS

WET HyFI Tide and Surge NexGenFWS

NWP Rain and River

Rainfields Flow Forecasts

Warning Entry Tool

Flood Dashboard

Metadata

+ Archiving, Forecast Performance, Post Flood Analysis, and Model Calibration

Delft-FEWS components

Delft-FEWS components

Training - Water Coach

• Part of end user training

• Script based events and learning

• Used for consolidation of learning/self-assessment

• Navigating the HyFS System

• Situational Awareness/Rainfall Grids

• Forecasting with URBS

Manageable and Maintainable Configuration

Manageable and Maintainable Configuration

• Permissions in configuration • Change and release management

procedures • Version Control

• National system with multiple regional forecasting centres

• 7 Regional Offices • 1 Configuration

• How to migrate and maintain?

Permissions

• Make use of permission groups in FEWS to filter

• Hide certain areas of the system

Making the configuration maintainable

• Templates

• Organised into regions

• Metadata in csv and shp

• Plan to integrate with a metadata management system (HyFI).

Station Metadata

Change Management

• Provide a structured way of managing and controlling the manner in which changes are initiated, assessed, planned, scheduled and implemented in the HyFS systems.

Version Control

Version Control

• Decentralised version control

• Each migration team has their own branch

• Merged into the master for each release package

• No Manual Merging (most of the time)

• More time for testing, less time for merging

Change - Release Management

Migration Progress

• Would we be this far along without change management and version control?!

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Western Australia

South Australia

New South Wales

Tasmania

Queensland

Victoria

Northern Territory

Overall

URBS Models Migrated

Future

• Operational support arrangements

• Transition to Operation • Training • Hydrological Flood

Intelligence System (HyFI)

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Stage 4

Stage 5

Requirements (2012)

Functional Modelling System (2013)

Data System (HyDS) (2013/14)

Model Migration (2014)

Operationalise (2015)

Stage 6

Extension (2015/16)

T0

FEWS Community Australia

• FEWS user days in 2014 was a major success

• 40+ people at user days

• FEWS user days 2015 scehdueled

Summary

• Implementation of a single National Forecasting System is not without its challenges.

• A national system will provide the Bureau with system that can be efficiently and effectively maintained.

• It enables the Bureau to implement a system with robustness and disaster recovery expected of emergency management organisations.

• Makes it easier to introduce improvements in the future and ensure that the Bureau's forecasting systems and methods continue to meet industry and world best practice.

• The FEWS community will enable the Bureau share forecasting approaches and techniques with its partners in Australia and Internationally.

Acknowledgements

Agathe Boronkay, Sunil Bhatt, Chris Leahy, Simon Pierotti, Karen Hudson, Andrew Preece, Andy Barnes, David Enever, Prasantha Hapuarachchi, Ashleigh Hackles, Phil Douglas, Wei Wang, Shangyou Zhang, Chandra Waniganayaka, Jeff Perkins, Rob Thompson, Phil Nguyen, Brett Anderson, Shirrah Comeadow, Soori Sooriyakumaran, Paul Birch, Sue Oats, Phil Ng, Santosh Kumar, Jo Pitt, Dasarath Jayasuriya, Marc van Dijk, Alex Minette, Peter Grijsbers, Ono, Chris Brunner, Andy Taylor, Ivo Miltenburg, Rick Meng, Anitha Puliyilote, Jaap Schellekens, Simone de Kleermaeker, Arther van Rooij, Onno van den Akker, David Kent, Carlos Velasco, Sourabh Gupta, and more …

Questions????