Dynamics of Media Attention

V.A. Traag, R. Reinanda, J. Hicks, G. Van Klinken

KITLV, Leiden, the Netherlandse-Humanities, KNAW, Amsterdam, the Netherlands

June 24, 2014

eRoyal Netherlands Academy of Arts and SciencesHumanities

Background

Research focus

• Study elite (network) behaviour.

• Particular focus on regime changes.I Case I: Indonesia, fall of Suharto 1998.I Case II: Indonesian independence after WWII.

• Data: newspaper articles. How can we use them?

Data

• Current corpus: Joyo/Indonesian News Service, 2004–2012.

• Contains about 140 263 articles.

Network

Building the network

1 Detect names automatically .I “ Budhisantoso would ask Kalla to team up with Yudhoyono .”

2 Disambiguate names.I Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono or Dr. Yudhoyono , etc. . .

3 Co-occurrence in sentence (record date).I “ Budhisantoso would ask Kalla to team up with Yudhoyono .”

K

B Y

19-04-2004

19-04-2004

19-04-2004

Network

Building the network

1 Detect names automatically .I “ Budhisantoso would ask Kalla to team up with Yudhoyono .”

2 Disambiguate names.I Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono or Dr. Yudhoyono , etc. . .

3 Co-occurrence in sentence (record date).I “ Budhisantoso would ask Kalla to team up with Yudhoyono .”

K

B Y

19-04-2004

19-04-2004

19-04-2004

Network

Building the network

1 Detect names automatically .I “ Budhisantoso would ask Kalla to team up with Yudhoyono .”

2 Disambiguate names.I Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono or Dr. Yudhoyono , etc. . .

3 Co-occurrence in sentence (record date).I “ Budhisantoso would ask Kalla to team up with Yudhoyono .”

K

B Y

19-04-2004

19-04-2004

19-04-2004

Network

Building the network

1 Detect names automatically .I “ Budhisantoso would ask Kalla to team up with Yudhoyono .”

2 Disambiguate names.I Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono or Dr. Yudhoyono , etc. . .

3 Co-occurrence in sentence (record date).I “ Budhisantoso would ask Kalla to team up with Yudhoyono .”

K

B Y

19-04-2004

19-04-2004

19-04-2004

Media dynamics

Dynamical characteristics

• How does attention grow, decay?

• How long do people stay in the news?

• How often do new people enter the news?

• Are there bursty patterns of attention?

Comparison

• Look at particular events.

• Are dynamics any different?

• Does attention grow or decay more quickly?

• Do people drop from the news sooner than expected?

Media dynamics

Dynamical characteristics

• How does attention grow, decay?

• How long do people stay in the news?

• How often do new people enter the news?

• Are there bursty patterns of attention?

Comparison

• Look at particular events.

• Are dynamics any different?

• Does attention grow or decay more quickly?

• Do people drop from the news sooner than expected?

Weekly cycles

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Date

050

100150200250300

Frequency

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40Lag (days)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Auto

corr

ela

tion

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5Frequency (days−1 )

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

Magnit

ude

Neighbours’ timeseries correlate: underlying commonality.

Growth/decay attention

-104 -103 -102 -101 0 101 102 103 104

Time relative to peak (days)

10-5

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1A

ttenti

on

α−βlog|t|

α|t|−β

αe−β|t|

αe−β|t| |t|−γ

Best fit e−βtt−γ .

Inter-event time

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000Inter-event time (Days)

10-7

10-6

10-5

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

100Pro

babili

tyEdgesNodes

Powerlaw with exponential cut-off x−βe−γx .

Lifetime

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000Lifetime (days)

10-3

10-2

10-1

100Pro

babili

tyEdgesNodes

Very long lifetime for nodes.

New nodes

1500 1000 500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000First Time Delay (days)

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06Pro

babili

tyEdgesNodes

New nodes (and edges) continuously appear in the media.

Conclusion

Timescales

Measure Short time Long time

Peak growth/decay power law PoissonInter-event power law PoissonLifetime fast (very) slowNew nodes/edges appear continuously

Theory

• Issues arise at a constant rate (Poisson process)

• Within issues, faster dynamics, shorter lifetimes

Conclusion

Questions?