Forecasting changing sea ice conditions months to years in advance

Julienne Stroeve Senior Scientist National Snow and Ice Data Center September 30, 2015

State of the Arctic

UCAR Congressional Briefing – September 2015

State of the Arctic

Accelera'ng  ice  loss  

Modern Satellite Era Various ship, aircraft, early satellite, in situ data, whaling ship log reports

Average  summer  ice  loss  from  1850-­‐2015  =  -­‐19,357  km2  yr-­‐1  

Average  summer  ice  loss  from  1979  to  2015:  -­‐83,090  km2  yr-­‐1  

UCAR Congressional Briefing – September 2015

State of the Arctic

Shipping  routes  are  opening  

August  22,  2007  

Northern  Sea  Route   NSR  open  since  2008  

NWP  open  most  years  since  2007  

UCAR Congressional Briefing – September 2015

State of the Arctic

Probability  that  the  Northern  Sea  Route  will  be  ice  free  

80%  Ice-­‐Free   50%  Ice-­‐Free  

Russia  

Murmansk  

Using  the  NSR,  ships  can  reduce  the  distance  between  Europe  and  Asia  by  40%  

Increasing  need  for  shorter-­‐term  predic'ons  

Median  PredicCon  Spread  in  PredicCons  Observed  Ice  CondiCons  

UCAR Congressional Briefing – September 2015

State of the Arctic

Need  for  predic'ng  spa'al  distribu'on  of  ice  condi'ons  

NCAR   NASA   NOAA  University  of  Washington  

NSIDC  

Probability  of  Ice  (0-­‐100%)  

0                    20                40                      60                    80                    100%  

Observed  ice  edge  in  2014  

UCAR Congressional Briefing – September 2015

State of the Arctic

How  to  improve  seasonal  forecasts?  

•  We  also  need  a  beVer  understanding  of  important  processes  such  as  melt  ponds  and  ocean  upwelling.    

•  Having  the  necessary  observa'ons  to  ini'alize  the  forecasts.  For  example  maps  of  ice  thickness  are  cri'cally  needed.  

UCAR Congressional Briefing – September 2015

State of the Arctic

•  A  dedicated  polar  predic'on  effort  is  needed.  

•  The  proposed  Year  of  Polar  Predic'on  (YOPP)  from  mid-­‐2017  to  mid-­‐2019  will  bring  together  the  interna'onal  community  in  a  period  of  intensive  observing,  modeling,  predic'on,  verifica'on,  user-­‐engagement.  •  This  is  an  opportunity  for  the  US  to  contribute  to  improved  polar  predic'on.  

•  Polar  predic'on  systems  lag  weather  predic'on  by  several  decades.