Priority assessment, process and linking with IDOs and

business cases

RTB Annual Review and Planning Meeting 2014

29th Sept to 3rd Oct, Entebbe, Uganda

Task Force Permanent Members

Bioversity: Diemuth Pemsl, Charles StaverCIAT: Bernardo Creamer, Glenn HymanCIP: Guy Hareau, Ulrich KleinwechterIITA: Tahirou Abdoulaye, Arega Alene, Joseph Rusike, Holger KirschtRTB: Graham Thiele

Outline of presentation

• Status of RTB priority assessment (PA)– Overview of six steps methodology– Summary of key outputs and results

• Lessons learnt from the PA exercise– What went/worked well? How to improve?

• Next steps: outlook on 2014/15 activities– Communication strategy for priority assessment– Ex post impact assessment studies

• Discussion– Stakeholder feedback– Data bases including RTB maps

• Linking with IDOs and business cases

• Discussion: Application of PA outputs and results

Strategic assessment of research priorities for the RTB : six steps

Key outputs of priority assessment

• Expert survey (N = 1,681) to identify key constraints with input from diverse, international group of stakeholders

• Priority research options selected based on expert survey results & input from RTB resource persons

• Collection of data/information for model parameters from statistics, existing data sets and group of technical experts

• Economic surplus (ES), poverty and cost-benefit analysis for a total of 31 research options with harmonized assumptions and methods across all five crops

• 10 RTB working papers completedExpert survey & ES report for each crop

• RTBMaps developed as cooperation of RTB Centers interactive online tool providing geographic information to the research and development community of roots, tubers and bananas

How many participated:

Expert survey on key constraints:- Bananas- Cassava- Potato- Sweet potato- Yam

Research options and model parameters:- Bananas- Cassava- Potato- Sweet potato- Yam

All reports uploaded to RTB webpage

http://www.rtb.cgiar.org/category/resources/working-papers/

Online comment function are available!

Editors’ Choice WinnerComputerWorld 2014

Special Achievement in GIS Award ESRI International Conference 2013

Potato expert survey results: top 10

Notes: Experts scored research activities on a five point scale: 1 = not important, 2 = somewhat important, 3 = important, 4 = very important, 5 = extremely important:

LAC: Latin America and Caribbean (N=140), SSA: Sub-Saharan Africa (N=79), ESEA: East and Southeast Asia (N=121), SWCA: South, West and Central Asia (N=61);

Share of female respondents: 22%

Priority assessment: Summary of resultsExpert survey• Contact lists of crop experts/stakeholders• Major constraints and opportunities by crop• Ranking of different research options for each

crop(results can be explored on global or regional level, by ecosystem, country or in the case of banana by cultivar group or cropping system)

• Rich data set available for further applications

Selection of research options / model parametersDifferent approaches for different crops

• Banana: Kampala workshop with 45 ARI and national banana scientists to select ROs and initial parameters

• Banana: final parameters by few CG experts• Cassava and yam – expert consultation CG based• Potato / sweet potato – similar options as Fuglie

+ CIP consultation

Priority assessment: Summary of results

Economic surplus model and poverty effectTotal of 31 research options (RO) assessed; # RO by crop as follows: Banana - 6; Cassava - 10; Potato - 6; Sweetpotato - 4, Yams - 5

• Data base of parameters (country and technology specific)

• Positive net present values (NPVs) for all RO

• IRRs of assessed ROs well beyond 10% benchmark

• Results indicate considerable poverty reduction

Banana: Overview of research options

Yam results: adoption ceiling & benefits

Note: Lower adoption scenario: analysis with 50% lower adoption ceiling. Net Present Values (NPV) calculated using a real interest rate of 10%.

Cassava: beneficiaries & poverty effect

Note: Lower adoption scenario: analysis with 50% lower adoption ceiling. Poverty reduction computed using on NPV (10% interest rate), national poverty incidence, share of agriculture on GDP (%), population, region specific elasticity (see Alene et al. 2009).

Sweetpotato: adoption by region

Extending economic surplus analysis: estimation of DALY benefits for OFSP

Note: Lower adoption scenario: analysis with 50% lower adoption ceiling. NPV calculated using an interest rate of 10%.

Lessons learnt: what went well?

• Successful application of priority assessment approach in a multi-Center and multi-crop context(consistent methodology and same set of outputs for each crop)

• Generated valuable information to guide strategic decision making and inform RTB target setting(rich and detailed data set from expert surveys; data compiled for economic surplus analysis both can be further explored)

• Participation of a global group of stakeholders (large scale expert surveys, workshops and groups of resource persons)

• Capacity building of RTB scientists in ex ante impact assessment approaches (crucial especially for Centers with no previous experience in systematic priority assessment)

Lessons learnt: how to improve?

• Careful cross calibration of parameter estimates e.g. to ensure same levels of optimism about scale of adoption and magnitude of effects such as yield increase or cost reductions

• Expand depth and breadth of impact modeling- incorporate additional methods (e.g. DALY for health impacts)- compare different models (e.g. IMPACT) for other indicators- develop methodology to incorporate gender aspect/impacts

• Harmonize & integrate with other RTB activities- Link data collection from field trials and M&E with PA data needs- Better link development of RTB flagships and PA

• Consistent/continuous involvement of stakeholders- stakeholder feedback on parameter estimates- future use and updating of RTBMaps and Banana mapper- encourage involvement of RTB scientists in (next) PA

Next steps: Activities for 2014

• Completion of priority assessment work:

– Review of RTB working papershttp://www.rtb.cgiar.org/category/resources/working-papers

• In-house: pdfs available on RTB webpage (online comment function will be added soon)

• Peer-review by selected independent (crop) experts

– Synthesis report

• Develop and implement PA communication strategy together with RTB communication unit

– Sharing with and feedback from stakeholderse.g. SROs (CORAF,ASARECA, IICA, etc.), banana networks, RTB meetings and webpage, social media

– Publications: RTB working papers, journal papers

Next steps: an integrated approach for RTB ex post impact assessment

PMU supporting impact studies for 2014/15:

– Re-engaging stakeholders: leveraging priority assessment and network analysis for more effective outcomes and impact of RTB research (Bioversity, cooperation with ILAC and coordination with RTB communication strategy)

– Use of DNA finger-printing and improved measures of on-farm yield gains to assess poverty impacts of cassava in sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria), Asia and Latin America (Colombia) (CIAT, IITA, coordination with BMGF)

– Outcomes of crop germplasm improvement research: cassava, potatoes and sweetpotatoes varietal release & adoption in Asia (China, India, 12 other countries) (CIP, CIAT, coordination with SIAC/MSU/SPIA)

Taskforce will develop and apply common methods & databases

Key points for discussion

• How to engage stakeholders:

- Appropriate communication strategy, to whom and about what

feedback on parameters

informing research priorities and regional policy

in what languages?

- More applications/use of priority assessment outputs by stakeholders

• RTB crop maps and other data bases – link to other uses and build for future use

Linking with IDOs and business cases

Assessed banana research options and links to RTB flagships

RTB impact pathway and links with PA

Research products Research

outcomes

Next Users

First level developme

nt outcomesEnd Users

Intermediate

development

outcomes

System level

development

outcomes

RTB – Impact pathways

Flagships and linked products IDOs

Adoptable innovations

( = outputs) ofresearch options

Adoptionestimates

Estimates of: economic surplus,poverty

reduction;nutrition and

health benefits

Benefit estimates:

Changes in costs,

productivity, income, health,

etc.

RTB Priority Assessment

Key points for discussion

• What will be the role of priority assessment in the development of the second phase?

• When do we do the next priority assessment?

• What are key areas for improvement for the next time and how to we build the data bases?

Thank you for your attention!