Estimation course

Introducing

EXPERT JUDGMENT

Instructor - Intro

What are the ground rules ?

There are ground rules for every sport

What are ours?

Here are the ground rules

1. Be in class 5 minutes before start. If( Late) join without asking permission

2. Do not bring in cell phone/ laptops to sessions

3. Bring a plain A-4 size paper to class for assignments.

4. Do not accept any contradiction. Ask, argue, debate

5. Attempt all problems even if you are not sure

6. Do not give just non numeric rating at end of each session. Give frank feedback on what you liked and what you didnt

7. Apply what you learn daily

Expert Judgment estimates

An expert is :Qualified to answer questions

in the fieldRecognized by peersHas back ground on the subject

Expert Judgment applicable

When the following are not available1.Measurements2.Observations 3.Experimentation4.Simulation

Nuclear fused salt reactor risks

When the following happens1.You need to supplement existing data2.Data is

1. Sparse2. Questionable3.Indirectly applicable

3.Learn expert’s solving technique4.Determining Whats known, whats not

known ,whats worth knowing

Expert Judgment: Risk on a nuclear reactor and approximate damage

Reactor size, strength, fuel size, coolant, structure etc

Precise Inputs

Precise Output

Failure scenarios, Impact size, Likely death tolls, rebuilding costs, Prevention means+ costs

Typical timelines

http://www.amazon.com/Eliciting-Analyzing-Expert-Judgment-Probability/dp/0898714745

Process Semantics

Action Block

I

STARTING INPUT

TECHNIQUES AND TOOLS

MAIN OUTPUT

BYPRODUCTS& WASTE

FEEDBACK LOOP

Assignment on Expert judgment

1. Context : You are the President of US and have got confirmed intelligence on the hideout of Osama Bin Laden and have decided to authorize his capture/killing . The operation involves Transporting elite Navy seals, Air Operations to transport ammunitions and equipment , Land operations to neutralize the guards and defenses and recover evidences . Finally transport the seals and body of Osama to a Naval vessel and do the final rites .

2. Divide the team into 3 groups : Air , Navy , Land3. Each team solves the problem of finding the time and aggregate cost of the

operation .4. Allow each team to complete the plans and summarize the figures to team5. Compare the estimates and plannings with actual operation : http://

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Osama_bin_Laden#Operation_Neptune_Spear

Reference book

http://www.amazon.com/Eliciting-Analyzing-Expert-Judgment-Probability/dp/0898714745

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