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The Shape of Uncertainty
Dominica DeGrandis Director, Learning & Development
@dominicad [email protected]
www.leankit.com
The next full-margin
rupture of the Cascadia
subduction zone will
spell the worst natural
disaster in the history of
the continent.
The New Yorker July 20, 2015
Year built:
1962
Foundation:
Cinder
blocks with
no rebar
Our house
Year built:
1962
Foundation:
Cinder
blocks with
no rebar
Our house
Types of Metrics
Descriptive
Predictive
Prescriptive
We are trying to be approximately right instead of exactly wrong.
work request done
wait meet to discuss
work
wait work
request arrives
do some work
do some work
consider the work
deliver
When will work be done?
work
Sep 23
work request done
wait meet to discuss
work
wait work
request arrives
do some work
do some work
consider the work
deliver
When will work be done?
work
Sep 23
Oct 1
work request done
wait meet to discuss
work
wait work
request arrives
do some work
do some work
consider the work
deliver
When will work be done?
work
The elapsed time for the work to get done is 8 days Flow time (Process time + wait time) = 8 days
Sep 23
Oct 1
Plotting elapsed work Flow time da
ys
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Oct
work request done
wait meet to discuss
work
wait work
request arrives
w1
do some work
do some work
consider the work
deliver
More work gets started
w0
w1 comes in and makes it almost all the way to done, but gets hung up waiting on vendor. While we’re waiting, we pull in work item w2.
w2
work request done
wait meet to discuss
work
wait work
request arrives
w1
do some work
do some work
consider the work
deliver
The problem in knowledge work is delayed feedback
w2 w4 w5 w3
Still waiting on w1, now blocked More work requests arrive w2 finishes on Oct 2 – took 4 days
w6
w7
w8
Oct 2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Plotting elapsed work Flow time Fl
ow T
ime
Day
s
Oct
work request done
wait meet to discuss
work
wait work
request arrives
w1
do some work
do some work
consider the work
deliver
Starting new work faster than finishing prior work = No flow
w2
w4 w5 w3
We work on too much stuff at the same time We don’t realize the impact of dependencies
w6
DR1.1
w8
work
w11
DR1.2
w14 w10 w15
DR1.3
DR1.4
w16
Dependency
PRJT
DALY
Dependency x 2
you friend X
X
X X
What’s the likelihood of Arriving on Kme?
Dependency x 2
you friend X
X
X X
What’s the likelihood of Arriving on Kme? 1 chance in 4 = 25% of arriving on time
Dependency x 3
you friend brother X
X
X X X
X X X X
X X X
Dependency x 3
you friend brother X
X
X X X
X X X X
X X X
1 chance in 8 = 12.5% of arriving on time
work request departs
wait meet to discuss
work
wait work
request arrives
w1
do some work
do some work
consider the work
deliver
Flow - the movement & delivery of value through the pipeline
w2
w4 w5 w3
That point when we said it would only take 2 days, but it actually took 2 weeks. We have become unpredictable. And our fellow workers don’t trust us anymore.
w6
p1
work
p2
w10
p3 p4
w17
A1 A2
w7
A3
w18
A4
w19
AUDIT
PRJCT
work request departs
wait meet to discuss
work
wait work
request arrives
w1
do some work
do some work
consider the work
deliver
Flow - the movement & delivery of value through the pipeline
w2
w4 w5 w3
That point when we said it would only take 2 days, but it actually took 2 weeks. We have become unpredictable. And our fellow workers don’t trust us anymore.
w6
p1
work
p2
w10
p3 p4
w17
A1 A2
w7
A3
w18
A4
w19
AUDIT
PRJCT
work request departs
wait meet to discuss
work
wait work
request arrives
w1
do some work
do some work
consider the work
deliver
Flow - the movement & delivery of value through the pipeline
w2
w4 w5 w3
That point when we said it would only take 2 days, but it actually took 2 weeks. We have become unpredictable. And our fellow workers don’t trust us anymore.
w6
p1
work
p2
w10
p3 p4
w17
A1 A2
w7
A3
w18
A4
w19
AUDIT
PRJCT
Time series plot for completed work
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
days
Oct Sat Sun
Percentile line – 50%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
days
Oct
50%
Percentile lines – 50% and 70%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
days
Oct
50%
70%
Percentile lines – 50%, 70%, 90%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
days
Oct
50%
70%
90%
Map time series plot to histogram
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Oct 0 1 2 3 4
days
27 14 11 8 4 2 1
0
1
2
3
4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Histogram – the shape of uncertainty
Oct
Visualizing Uncertainty
An uncertain number is a shape. The longer the tail, the more unpredictable.
280
90 0-‐1 10
Num
ber o
f Work Ite
ms c
ompleted
Number of days to complete work items
Control Queues Instead of Timelines
Flow time lengthens when WIP increases. To optimize and improve flow, we need to control queues.
200
60
90 0 10
Num
ber o
f Work Ite
ms d
one
Number of days to complete work items
Average FT 4.3 days. 95% work done < 23 days.
Use this graph to quantify the probability of completing X% of the work within Y days.
All Ops Work completed Aug 28 –Oct 12
Unplanned Work Aug 28 –Oct 12
Aug 28 Oct 12
12 data points
Num
ber o
f Unp
lann
ed W
ork ite
ms
Unplanned Work Aug 28 –Oct 12
Plan for unplanned work!
“If we have data, let’s look at data. If all we have are
opinions, let’s go with mine.”
Jim Barksdale
former Netscape CEO
5 Take Aways:
1. Consider being approx. right vs. precisely wrong. 2. Adding work to your plate faster than completing prior work increases WIP. 3. The odds of being predictable decrease when WIP increases & FlowTimes elongate 4. Control queues, not timelines to improve flow.
@dominicad
“If predictability is your goal,
the best thing you can do as a leader is reserve capacity”
Troy Magennis Founder, Focused Objective
Where is the costliest
uncertainty in your organization?
@dominicad
References
@dominicad
The Shape of Uncertainty Dominica DeGrandis Director, Learning & Development
[email protected] www.leankit.com
@dominicad
