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Human beings are uncomfortable about uncertainty: we rather be wrong than be in doubt. For this reason, only a few people when starting a new development project are willing to deal with the project risk in a transparent, open and exhaustive manner. People normally prefer to fall back, mostly unconsciously, on ineffective but established practices, like long-term planning, protection legal clauses, sole use of big-name software firms. Effects are often disastrous: budget overrun, late delivery, canceled project and lawsuits, squandered opportunities of innovation. This problem, mentioned even on the Agile Manifesto, is still being neglected. This talk will address causes and effects and will suggest hints and ideas on how to transform risk into opportunity, also through a brief foray into neuro-psychology. This talk is aimed at ICT managers and professionals, with a special focus on software development projects.
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Risk Management for Adults
@cl0d
Warg
am
es
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98
3
[ ]Claudio Sabia
Founder at OptionFactory
10+ years experience in ICT security and software dev D
oct
or
who -
19
63
Danger is very real,but fear is a choice
Aft
er
eart
h -
20
13
Labyri
nth
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6
People prefer to be wrong than in doubt
Thelm
a &
Louis
e -
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91
Why?
20
01
: A
space
odyss
ey -
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68
Choice-supportive bias
The M
atr
ix -
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99
Hindsight bias
The u
sual su
spect
s -
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95
Normalcy bias
Donnie
Dark
o -
20
01
Ostrich effect
The inte
rnsh
ip -
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13
What about organizations?
Eyes
wid
e s
hut
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99
9
Hindsight bias
The h
itch
hik
er’
s guid
e t
o t
he g
ala
xy -
20
05
Hindsight is always twenty-twenty
-- Billy Wilder
Ostrich effect
Weeke
nd a
t B
ern
ie’s
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98
9
The W
izard
of
Oz
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93
9
Choice supportive bias
Normalcy bias
Lots of folks confuse bad management with destiny
-- Kin Hubbard
Back
to t
he f
utu
re -
19
85
Sta
r Tr
ek:
the m
oti
on p
ictu
re -
19
79
Space-time bending
● Choice-supportive bias
● Ostrich effect
● Normalcy bias
● Hindsight bias
Antidotes
House
- 2
00
4:2
01
2
Ince
pti
on -
20
10
Debiasing
Socr
ate
s -
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71
Naming
Analysis
Sherl
ock
– 2
01
0
Exc
alib
ur
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98
1
Ownership & Accountability
India
na Jones
and t
he t
em
ple
of
Doom
- 1
98
4We have options
The a
vengers
- 2
01
2
Collaboration
Transparency
Ponyo -
20
08
Wall
stre
et
- 1
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7
Real Options
The s
hin
ing -
19
80
Resilience rather than Robustness
In any given moment, we have two options: to step forward into growth or to step back into safety
--Abraham Maslow
Slid
ing d
oors
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8
Bam
bi -
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The persons and events in this motion picture are fictitious.Any similarity to actual persons or events is unintentional.
Where you can find me:@cl0d
Thanks
References
Arm
y o
f dark
ness
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Barry Schwartz - The paradox of choice
Daniel Kahneman - Thinking fast and slow
Tom DeMarco, Tim Lister - Waltzing with bears
Tim Lister - Risk Management Is Project Management For Grown-ups
Olav Maassen - Commitment
Dave Snowden - Managing under conditions of uncertainty
Ryan Hanisco - Building Agile Accountability
