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If the Match France versus Uruguay is a Draw and if Mexico wins versus South Africa,
and if .......
and if ....Then France can be Qualified for Stage 2
Those Endless Scenarios are Over
Enter your prediction in terms of Probabilities on the matches‘ results
“In my opinion, there is a 60% chance that the match Uruguay vs France ends with a Draw, 25% that France wins, and
then, 15% that Uruguay wins”
BAYESIA will handle your predictions and will give you the exact Team qualification probabilities
A Tool to Compute the Qualification Probabilities for
Fifa World Cup Stage 2
Click here to select the Group you want to evaluate. The selected
group appears in redThe first match of France
is against Uruguay, on June 11
The Sliders allow entering the probabilities of each result.
Here, we assess a 60% chance for Draw
As probabilities have to sum up to 100, increasing the Draw’s probability automatically
reduces the probabilities of France and Uruguay to win the match
Checking this box allows fixing the Draw’s probability
It is then possible to enter the probability that France (or Uruguay) wins without modifying
the probability associated to Draw. We define here a 25% chance that France wins
The screenshot below describes the probability we assessed for the Group A’ Matches
In our assessments, the lowest probability is 5%, the probability
corresponding to a Draw for South Africa vs Mexico
If we imagine 100 matches exactly played in the same conditions, we then belief that only 5 will end as a Draw, 60 will be a
Mexican win, and 35 a South African win
We then belief that a Draw is very unlikely, without fully excluding it
Once satisfied with your assessments, you just have to click on Validation to execute the Qualification Probabilities Computation
This Chart depicts the exact results of the Computation of the Qualification Probabilities based on the Matches Probabilities you have previously entered
With our assessments, we get a 77% chance that France will be qualified
for Stage 2, 45% for Uruguay, 44% for Mexico and 34% for South Africa
We wish you pleasant simulations ...
and a great World Cup
http://worldcup.bayesialab.com