130429 slide share_living within the limits of the earth

Living Within the Limits of the Earth Japan Could Meet Its 25% Reduction Target

29 April, 2013

Yurika Ayukawa Professor, Chiba University of Commerce

Faculty of Policy Informatics

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Today’s Lecture 1. Three Great Threats to the Earth we face today

-Ecological Footprint, -Loss of Biodiversity -Climate Change and Japan 2. Japan could meet any target if binding 3. More Efficient Use of Heat 4. District Heating&Cooling-Decentralized system 5. Natural Capital 6. “e-compact city”- the way towards low carbon sustainable society

Yurika Ayukawa

Three Great Threats to the Earth We Face Today

1. We have used up too much natural resources of the earth

2. Loss of Biodiversity at an alarming speed

3. Climate change

• Not much progress made on mitigation since the entry into force of the UNFCCC

• No international binding framework to enter into force until 2020, except for a very weak Kyoto Protocol 2nd Commitment Period, which means no peaking before 2020, which is crucial to keep the 2 ℃ temperature rise limit

• We are about to close the window of opportunity to avoid a catastrophic climate change

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3 Great Threats are Man-made • The post-World War II era has pursued pro-economic

growth to recover from the war. • All countries strived to be rich “developed nations”, using up

natural resources from the developing world, destroying natural environment.

• The global market created by the developed nations are contributing to the big gap between the rich and the poor in money wise.

• Mass production, mass consumption, has ended up in mass wastes without any more space for dumping in a safe way.

• The world is no longer renewable or sustainable and losing space to live a decent life.

• 3.11 Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011 has symbolically showed this to us.

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We have already used up 1.5 earths

worth of natural

resources

Source: “Living Planet Report 2012” (World Wide Fund for Nature WWF)

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We have lost almost 30% of species since 1970


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Are we facing the 6th Extinction of all species?

• The speed of the loss of biodiversity is alarming

• It has happened during the past 100 years due to human-induced activities.

• This 6th Extinction is equivalent to more than all the past 5 Extinctions accumulated.


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Global Warming close to a tipping point? Temperature rise from pre-industrialized level likely to overshoot the

2℃ target

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WMO announced that the average temperature for 2001-2010 period is highest on record and the increase curve is steeper than ever. (March 23, 2012)

Past 40 yrs

The drought of summer 2012 in the US raised the price of crops on the world market.

Source：National Integrated Drought Information System, www.drought.gov/portal

Source ： http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/documents/943_en-figure1-3.pdf

Ice melts in the Arctic Sea

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Source ：http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/greenland-melt_prt.htm

In August 2012, NASA announced that the ice surface became the smallest on record.

Source ： http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/arctic-seaice-2012.html

Outcome of Doha COP18 “Doha Climate Gateway”

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• Kyoto Protocol amended, the 2nd Commitment Period to end in 2020.

• Continue discussion on climate finance

• Initiation of a discussion on raising the ambition level before and after 2020.

• Setting up an international mechanism to address loss and damage caused by climate change on developing countries, a significant decision.

Some minor progress, but still

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Japan going in the opposite direction

• Japan has opted out from the 2nd Commitment Period of the Kyoto Protocol

• Japan is about to drop the 25% reduction 2020 target, because we cannot have any more nuclear power plants

• This is totally the wrong choice. • International society is not interested in Japan

any longer, and Japan has lost its global influence.

• Japan could meet any target, only if it is binding.

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Japan was able to meet the “15% power cut target” in the summer of 2011!

• People recognized how efficiently we could reduce electricity without much inconvenience

• Big consumers achieved 29% reduction compared to 2010

• Smaller corporations achieved 19% • Households 6% • Maximum electricity consumption was 49220

MWh on Aug. 18 when the maximum temperature was 36.1⁰C, whereas in 2010 the hottest day was on July 23rd at 35.7 ⁰C using 59990 MWh of electricity.

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More reduction achieved than projected in the summer of 2012 ①

Power source +/- than projected considerations

Nuclear +2370 MW Restart of 2 nuclear plants (Ohi)

Thermal -4230MW Energy saving measures taken, so no need for start up of adjustment power

Hydro - 20 MW Average close to projection

Pump up hydro +1030 MW Demand decrease + nuclear restart

Geothermal, wind, solar

+990 MW Good sunshine increased power generation from solar, plus the start of Feed-in Tariff law.

Exchange of power

+360 MW Wider area exchanges of power would contribute to stable power supply

New markets +50 MW To be seen

TOTAL +580 MW In overall, was close to projection

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Source: Made from the final report of Demand&Supply Inquiry Committee of the Cabinet’s National Strategy Section (October 30, 2012)

Supply Side Overview

More reduction achieved than projected In the summer of 2012 ②

+/- than projected considerations

Total - 13.33 GW Energy saving measures were taken more than projected

Industry/economy - 1.45 GW Factory production declined, GDP growth declined

Weather, temperature

- 4.67 GW Though the summer was extremely hot, the hottest day’s temperature was lower than 2010

Power saving measures

- 7.21 GW Projections of all 9 power companies were more than the actual demand. This means power saving lifestyle has become a norm in all sectors including households, offices, factories and buildings. The Demand Response system is a promising way to achieve demand reduction at peak hours.

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Demand Side Overview

Source: Made from the final report of Demand&Supply Inquiry Committee of the Cabinet’s National Strategy Section (October 30, 2012)

What was done • Companies introducing more own power generators • Various price menus to lower the peak demand • Power produced and sold by independent power producers

to be considered as “negawatt” and together with the bidding system, Negawatt trading market was established.

• A new distributed green power trading market was made on June 18 to promote cogeneration and renewable energy use.

• Spot market of power from the bigger power producers enabled.

• Demand response (demand side management) system by aggregation was tried for the first time with big power consumers, which demonstrated that the system worked, making more power savings than they targeted.

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Case of Nippon Paper Group • Paper pulp industry is one of the biggest GHG emitters. Strongly

against any regulatory schemes such as “cap&trade”. • Their factories exist in all areas of Japan. • Each factory has their own generation systems, and provided extra

power to those which lacked power after 3.11. • In June, they decided to use the “Negawatt Market” as the first case,

where excess power produced in Kyushu, Shikoku area and sold to power companies in the area, would be regarded as “Negawatt” and in return, the same amount of “negawatt” would be counted as reduced power consumption in factories in Kansai area, in order to meet the power saving target Kansai Electric implemented.

• This is exactly like the “cap&trade” emissions trading scheme. • This is a pure proof that if there is a binding force, companies would

come up with such ideas which makes regulations flexible. • It also proves that a “cap&trade” emissions trading scheme is not

impossible in Japan.

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Case of Sumitomo Electric Industries

Period Area Maximum power demand reduction achieved

Target Achievement

2011 summer Tokyo electric area 15% 26.5%

Tohoku electric area 15% 25.3%

Kansai electric area 15% 15.4%

2011 winter Kansai electric area 10% 22.2%

2012 summer Kansai electric area 15% 20.9%

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They have achieved much more than they had targeted in all areas and all peak seasons.

Source: Made from Sumitomo Electric Industries’ presentation at the Demand&Supply Inquiry Committee of the Cabinet’s National Strategy Section (October 12, 2012)

What Sumitomo actually did

internal power generation including

cogeneration 53%

power generation by

rental generator 14%

work shift 14%

stop operation 13%

energy saving 6%

Reducing Power Usage

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Source: Made from Sumitomo Electric Industries’ presentation at the Demand&Supply Inquiry Committee of the Cabinet’s National Strategy Section (October 12, 2012)

Most of all,

• People’s awareness to save power became a norm, which led to a lower demand even in the hottest season.

• Less air conditioning, or raise the temperature level to 28 ℃ with electric fans

• Change all the lightings to LEDs • Off the plugs of all electrical appliances including

computers and office equipments when not in use • Stop some elevators and escalators, less trains and

metros, stop vending machines during the peak hour • Summer time, and flexible working hours

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How the International Energy Agency (IEA) looks into the future

Yurika Ayukawa 21 Source: World Energy Outlook 2012 Presentation to the Press (November 12, 2012)


Look at Renewables!



What needs to be done more in Japan

More efficient use of heat

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In Japan, 2/3 of energy is wasted heat!

loss

Used energy

Graph made by Ken Hirata, Professor Emeritus of Tokyo University

Cascade Use of Heat Energy by Cogeneration Re-use of heat according to its temperature. Heat can be reused in various

ways.

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Graph：Mitsubishi Electric Energy Saving Lecture http://www.mitsubishielectric.co.jp/shoene/learning/kouza/vol04/index04.html

District Heating&Cooling in various countries

Austria Denmark Finland France Germany Japan Korea Sweden USA

Source:Recycled heat 68% 64.35% 74.96% 46% 91.32% - - 67% -

Source:Renewables 14% 24.83% 5.92% 6% 0.21% - - 24% -

Source: Others 18% 10.82% 19.11% 48% 8.47% - - 9% -

Share of citizens with District Heating

20% 61.20% 49% 8% 14% - 12% 42% <1%

Trench length of District Heating Pipelines 2009

4201 km

- 12210 km

3321 km

19538 km

736 km

2268 km 21100 km

3206 km

Number of District Heating utilities

730 - Ca.150 418 systems

228 86 67 439 systems

132

Total installed District Heating capacity

8200 MWth

- 20790 MWth

16460 MWth

51506 MWth

4250 MWth

12950 MWth

15000 MWth

87734 MWth

District Cooling capacity 2009

28 MWth

- 117 MWth

630 MWth

176 MWth

3916 MWth

1123 MWth

650 MWth

14063 MWth

Trench length of District Cooling pipeline 2009

6 km - 58 km 131 km 56 km - 20 km 320 km 587 km

Yurika Ayukawa 27 Source: “District Heating and Cooling”(Euroheat& Power, 2011 Survey)

We need District Heating & Cooling

• Most efficient way towards a comfortable life with less energy and less GHG emission.

• Especially if it is from biomass, geothermal, solar heat and other renewable sources.

• Establishing the infrastructure takes a long time. • Even in Denmark, after 40 years, still expanding the pipelines. • This is what we need to do in the Tsunami and earthquake

stricken Tohoku Area’s revival. • In Europe, it started as a cheaper option than having your

own system individually at their homes. • Best part is that, this would lead to a decentralized

energy system, which we need for a low-carbon society, with a sustainable economy, based within the limits of the natural capital of the earth.

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Big Potential in Japan Kawasaki city, Kanagawa Pref

Kawasaki Biomass Cogeneration Plant Kawasaki LNG Power Plant

Kawasaki Steam Net Pipeline

■Japan’s Largest Biomass Cogeneration Plant (33 MW ) using used lumber from construction sites

■LNG Power Plant (850MW) ■Steam Net Reuse of wasted steam, providing to 10 facilities, equivalent to 9300 households

Potential for district heating and cooling in the industrial area

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Source:http://www.city.kawasaki.jp/280/cmsfiles/contents/0000033/33180/ecokombinat2.pdf

Shinjuku, Makuhari, and Roppongi Cogeneration Systems

District Heating&Cooling by Tokyo Gas

Big Potential In Japan by Gas Companies

30 Yurika Ayukawa Pictures by Yurika Ayukawa at Shinjuku Tokyo Gas Center

The way forward to a Low Carbon Sustainable Society

• We need a target and a directive with strong political will of the government.

• We need a new economic structure where the value of nature is priced and embedded in the system.

• In the aftermath of the 3.11 earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear power plant explosion, we stand at a point for a fundamental paradigm shift, to a “Natural Capital based Economy”.

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Nature is Our Capital

• Nature is our precious capital, but since it is not created by labor, it is regarded as free.

• However, we receive all our capital from nature, and human beings cannot create nature.

• This precious nature is being used and dumped at an incredibly high speed.

• If nature is regarded as “capital”, then people will make all efforts to preserve it.

• If natural capital, such as fossil fuel is regarded as non-renewable asset, people will leave it in the underground safe (bank) and just live on its interests.

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Written in 1973

Serge Latouche, “la Decroissance” or “Degrowth”

• Phase out from economic growth pattern is the important issue.

• The current system is to eternally expand its economy on a growth trend, by mass production, mass consumption and creating mass waste.

• This is threatening the natural capital of the earth that we all depend upon.

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Is “Sustainable Development” sustainable?

• A magic word that puts everything look politically correct. • The term was for developing countries to be developed in a

sustainable way, so as not to infringe the limits of nature, with the help of already developed countries.

• However, no developed country has implemented this “sustainable development”.

• How can developing countries take the path of “sustainable development” if there is no model to follow, or without any support from the developed nations?

• The model is the global market, which if successful, makes the rich more rich, and the poor more poorer, by using up the natural capital, most of which exist in the poorer countries.

• This is the root of the divide between developing and the developed nations in all international treaty negotiations, such as UNFCCC climate change.

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Re-localization

• Important concept to change this is “Re-localization.”

• Get out from the global market or the global financial system and activate a local system with traditional way of living with local money.

• Re-localization is a switch from the huge centralized system of today to a decentralized and diverse small sized society.

• To an economic system that keeps the environment renewable and with resilience.

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E-compact city, a solution

• A small independent and decentralized cities connected via IT system.

• In this e-compact city, everything is kept within the limits of the environment of the local natural resources.

• Energy is 100% renewable natural energy.

• Businesses take place using local natural resources under a cap to keep them renewable.

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Natural capital

• Natural environment, fresh water, forests, biodiversity, stable weather all have economic values.

• We need to put a price on these precious nature that we all depend our lives and economy on, so that they will not be exhausted.

• Cap&trade emissions trading scheme, carbon tax, biodiversity offsetting, access & benefit sharing of genetic resources, polluter-pays-principle, strategic environmental impact assessment are all tools to put a price on the precious natural capital.

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Putting a price on nature-already starting • UN Committee of Experts for environmental Accounting

– System of environmental and Economic Accounting (SEEA) • SEEA created a way to show the Adjusted Net Saving (ANS) and Adjusted Net

National Income (ANNI) • GDP shows the growth of a country’s economic wealth, whereas the ANS is an

index to show whether that growth is sustainable or not.

• “The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity” (TEEB) – TEEB succeeded in getting public attention on biodiversity and

ecosystem being the foundation for economic wealth and contributes to economic growth.

• Wealth Accounting and the Valuation of Ecosystems Services (WAVES) of the World Bank – The aim of this is to promote sustainable development through the

implementation of comprehensive wealth accounting that focuses on the value of natural capital and integration of “green accounting” in more conventional development planning analysis.

• Trucost, a company in UK – Trucost spent the last 10 years researching, standardizing and validating

environmental data on the world's largest companies to calculate the risk of losing biodiversity and ecosystem services by business activities.

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The Natural Capital Declaration by UNEP Financial Initiative

• This declaration was one of the big high lights of 2012’s Rio+20 Summit in June outside the real conference inside.

• CEOs of 37 banks, investment funds, and insurance companies announced a far-reaching commitment to work towards integrating natural capital considerations into their products and services.

• The Declaration is seen in the context of a growing cross-sectoral effort to address the invisibility of nature in the global economy.

• The Declaration compliments other initiatives such as World Bank’s WAVES initiative, TEEB, and Leadership Compact on Natural Capital, etc.

• All based on concerns that loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services erodes global natural capital, a big challenge to future business opportunities and also to the financial institutions who fund these businesses.

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Puma’s Environmental Profit&Loss Account (World’s 1st example)

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Source: “Environmental Profit and Loss Account for the year ended 31 December 2010” (PUMA, http://about.puma.com/wp-content/themes/aboutPUMA_theme/fi

nancial-report/pdf/EPL080212final.pdf)

What’s so Great about this Puma Accounting Report?

• The company analyzed the whole supply chain from getting the raw materials, and how they make into their products.

• They found out that getting the raw material part uses natural capital the most, but this part cannot be controlled by Puma operations.

• To know that their products do harm the natural capital is the most important recognition.

• Puma will better understand its dependence on natural resources, how to capture opportunities and guarantee its sustainable operation.

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Know the limits of nature

• Most important is to know the limits of nature and live within it. • In each e-compact city, the local region, and the country, an

inventory system is made, to know the limits of natural resources they have.

• In order to keep them renewable and sustainable, an environmental cap will be put on each activity.

• All activities taken place each day, each week, each month, each year must keep the environmental cap.

• This will be the real wealth of the e-compact city. • Those local region or the country which keep all activities within

the limit of “1”, to keep the resources renewable has real wealth. • This “1” relates to a “One planet earth”. • The index of wealth or happiness is to keep the natural

environmental wealth to “1”.

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Thank you very much for your attention!

Technology

130429 slide share_living within the limits of the earth