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INDICATORS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WATER
RESOURCES (CASE STUDY: BLACK SEA
WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT)
Panka Babukova – PhD Student "Planning and Organization of the Territorial Systems - Environmental Management"
Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski”, Faculty of Geology and Geography, Department Regional and Political Geography
Conceptual Framework Driving Forces – Pressure – State – Impact -
Response
RESPONSEDRIVING
FORCES
PRESSURE STATE
IMPACT
“DRIVING FORCE – PRESSURE – STATE - RESPONSE” MODEL
DRIVING FORCES:
CLIMATE:• Air temperature;• Precipitation ANTHROPOGENIC:• number, density and distribution of the population;• GDP and GVA by economic sectors
PRESSURE:WATER ABSTRACTION
by economic sectors
WATER LOSSES
STATE:
AMOUNT OFWATER RESOURCES
WATER SUPPLY REGIME
RESPONSE:
WATER MANAGEMENT POLICIES:• Ecological minimum of river runoff• Consumption and supply management• Water prices• IWM
IMPACT:
WATER STRESS
BLACK SEA WMD IN NUMBERS:
• Area: 20 760 km² (18.7% of Bulgarian territory);• Population: 1 339 999 persons /2007/ (17.5% of Bulgarian population);• GDP: 7 816 345 thousand BGN (15.8% of Bulgarian GDP /2007/);• GVA: 6 389 501 thousand BGN (15.8% of Bulgarian GVA /2007/).
Source: Water Management Plan, Black Sea WMD
NATURAL DF: TEMPERATURE
Annual temperature anomaly – regional averaged data BSWMD
Black sea water managment district y = -0.0002x + 0.0846
R2 = 5E-05
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
T C
Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/
NATURAL DF: TEMPERATURE
Annual temperature anomaly – regional averaged data Varna station
Varna y = 0.0082x - 0.1255
R2 = 0.0292
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/
NATURAL DF: PRECIPITATION
Annual precipitation – deviation from climate normal
Black sea water management district y = 0.081x + 99.529
R2 = 0.0052
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
19
31
19
36
19
41
19
46
19
51
19
56
19
61
19
66
19
71
19
76
19
81
19
86
19
91
19
96
20
01
P %
of
no
rma
ls
Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/
NATURAL DF: PRECIPITATION – RUN-OFF
The Chronological Fluctuation of the Run-off and Precipitation
Black sea water management district
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1931 1937 1943 1949 1955 1961 1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003
Black sea - runoff
Varna - precip.
Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/
NATURAL DF: CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Extreme years with high and low water-levelWMD WET YEARS DRY YEARS
Black sea
1955/56 1954/55 1966/67 1989/90 1948/49 1984/85
R (106 m3) 3660.0 3606.9 3465.6 468.5 522.1 635.1
P % of normal
105 120 115 92 61 78
Bulgaria 1962/63 1954/55 1955/56 1989/90 1993/94 1992/93
R (106 m3) 33590.7 32294.4 31194.2 5996.2 7085.5 7103.9
P % of normal
113 142 106 68 85 90
Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/
MAIN WATER CONSUMERS
Total used water (without cooling water) 2003 - 2007: 935 345 thousand m³
Sector Total used water 2003 - 2007
(thousand m³)
Average per year
(thousand m³)
Share
Total used water(without cooling water)
935 345 187 069 100 %
Industry (without cooling)
588 790 117 758 62.95 %
Agriculture and forestry (including fishery)
35 485 7096.98 3.79 %
*irrigation: 66.73%
Households 220 440 44 087.9 23.57 %
Service sector 90 631 18 126.2 9.69 %
*tourism: 34.85%
Source: Water Management Plan, Black Sea WMD
ANTHROPOGENIC DF:
NATURAL INCREASE: 2009 - –1502 people;
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
Number of Population
y = -2,8217x + 1300,5
R2 = 0,8393
1260126512701275128012851290129513001305
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Thousandpeople
Linear(Thousandpeople)
2000 – 1299 thousand people;2008 – 1280.8 thousand people.
ANTHROPOGENIC DF:
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
2000 - -5072 persons;2008 – 4199 persons.
Water Consumption, 2008
0
50
100
150
200
250
Bulgaria BSWMD VarnaDistrict
BourgasDistrict
DobrichDistrict
ShumenDistrict
l/p/day
ANTHROPOGENIC DF: GDP PER CAPITA
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
2000 – 13 430 BGN per capita;
2008 – 24 347 BGN per capita.
GDP IN THE BLACK SEA WMD
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008
BGN Per Capita
GDP BY WATER ABSTRACTION
0
0,01
0,02
0,03
0,04
0,05
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
BGN/THOUSAND M³
ANTHROPOGENIC DF: GVA IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
GVA IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
y = -7,7512x + 579,07
R2 = 0,1611
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Milion Levs
Linear (MilionLevs)
2000 – 607 million BGN;2008 – 457 million BGN
ANTHROPOGENIC DF: GVA IN THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
2000 – 1.293 million BGN;2008 – 2.372 million BGN.
ANTHROPOGENIC DF: TOURISTIC SECTOR
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
2000 – 812.1 thousand people;2008 – 2061.3 thousand people.
2000 – 5.580,9 nights;2008 – 12.206 nights.
2008 - 1637 accommodation establishments
PRESSURE: WATER SUPPLY
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
Used Water by the Public Water Supply (Total: 71 378 thousand m3)
%
66,7716,03
13,09
8 1,11
Domestic Sector
Industry
Service Sector
Tourism
Agriculture
PRESSURE: WATER USED BY THE PUBLIC WATER SUPPLY
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
WATER SUPPLIED TO DOMESTIC SECTOR (INCL. TOURISM)
y = 3099,2x + 35839
R2 = 0,69910
10000200003000040000500006000070000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
THOUSAND M³
Linear(THOUSANDM³)
2000 – 46 132 THOUSAND M³;
2008 – 62 491 THOUSAND M³.
PRESSURE: DRINKING WATER CONSUMPTION IN HOUSEHOLDS
DRINKING WATER CONSUMED BY HOUSEHOLDS IN THE WMD
y = 0,8197x + 84,882
R2 = 0,2033
707580859095
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
L/H/DAY
Linear(L/H/DAY)
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
2000 – 92.25 L/H/DAY;2002 – 82.7 L/H/DAY;2007 – 98.5 L/H/DAY;2008 – 92 L/H/DAY.
PROGNOSIS FOR WATER ABSTRACTION IN THE DOMESTIC SECTOR
132000,00
132500,00133000,00
133500,00134000,00
134500,00135000,00
135500,00136000,00
136500,00
2008 2015
THOUSAND M³
PRESSURE: WATER USED BY THE INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
WATER SUPPLIED TO INDUSTRIES
y = -554,32x + 14926
R2 = 0,4944
02000400060008000
1000012000140001600018000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
THOUSAND M³
Linear (THOUSAND M³)
2000 – 16 841 THOUSAND M³;2008 – 10 350
THOUSAND M³.
PRESSURE: WATER USED BY THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
WATER SUPPLIED TO AGRICULTURE
y = 73,619x + 388,71
R2 = 0,3769
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
THOUSAND M³
Linear(THOUSAND M³)
2001 – 350 THOUSAND M³;
2004 – 1194 THOUSAND M³;
2008 – 847 THOUSAND M³.
PROGNOSIS FOR WATER ABSTRACTION BY AGRICULTURE
0,00
10000,00
20000,00
30000,00
40000,00
50000,00
60000,00
70000,00
2008 2015
THOUSAND M³
PRESSURE: WATER USED BY THE TOURISTIC SECTOR
2004 – 6493 THOUSAND M³;2008 – 9997 THOUSAND M³.
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
PRESSURE: WATER LOSSES
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
WATER LOSS FROM PUBLIC WATER SUPPLY
y = -0,1705x + 61,827
R2 = 0,2057
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
%
Linear(%)
2001 – 60.6%;2008 – 60.4%.
STATE: Water Resources of Bulgaria, by Run-off Basins and Water Management Regions (1930/31 – 2002/3)
Water resources
W106 m3
% of water resources in the
country
Cv Ml/sec/km2
Bulgaria 19228.6 100 0.331 5.351
North Bulgaria 6953.2 36,2 0.355 4.035
South Bulgaria 12275.3 63,8 0.331 6.526
Black sea water management region
2412.9 12.5 0.385 2.920
Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/
STATE: QUANTITY OF WATER RESOURCES WATER ABSTRACTION
Water resources and water abstraction in Bulgaria
Water management districts
Years with: Water resources
106 m3
Total Water Abstraction
106 m3
Rates of water abstraction
(%)
Black Sea High water level 3660.0 374.0 10.2
Average water level
2412.8 15.5
Low water level 468.5 79.8
Bulgaria High water level 33590.7 3341.0 9.9
Average water level
19228.6 17.4
Low water level 5996.2 55.7
Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/
STATE: WATER SUPPLY RESTRICTION
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
POPULATION WITH WATER SUPPLY RESTRICTION
19,45
31,7
18,22515,275
1,6
05
101520253035
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
%
2000 – 19.4%;2008 – 1.6%.
RESPONSE: WATER PRICES
Source: National Statistical Institute, Statistical Yearbooks 2000-2008
2000 – 0.8 BGN;2006 – 1.06 BGN.
CONCLUSIONS AND PROBLEMS
• Discrepancy between the periods of major water consumption and periods of high waters;
• Irrational use of the surface waters;
• Ineffective water consumption in households;
• Slow increase of water consumption in agriculture and industry;
• The increase in tourism was not conformed with the public water supply;
• Significant water losses from the transportation systems.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
