Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies by Poor and Excluded Communities in Western Nepal: A Comprehensive Study of Banganga River Basin: Arghakhanchi and Kapilvastu, Nepal

ActionAid Nepal December 2007 Kathmandu

STUDY

REPORT

BY: DHRUBA GAUTAM KRISHNA GAUTAM

DIPAK POUDEL

NATIONAL DISASTER RISK-REDCUTION

CENTRE NEPAL (NDRC NEPAL) BANESHWOR, KATHMANDU

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

We would like to extend our sincere gratitude to all persons who contributed to this study in many different ways: by sharing their experience, thoughts and opinions, and by contributing time, advice and hospitality. Therefore, this report has been possible because of the support of so many people personally and professionally. We are particularly indebted to community and CBO members of two VDCs under two districts for their patience, co-operation and good understanding without their support it would not have been possible to complete this study. We were encouraged when people accepted our presence, answered our queries passionately and made us internalize the practical difficulties of the area made by the recent flood, landslides, droughts, cold wave, etc (all disaster hazards). Therefore, we remain obliged to them. We would like to thank Mr. Shyam Sundar Jnavaly, Sr. Theme Leader, EDM, AAN for his valuable inputs in finalizing the study framework and technical as well as managerial support throughout the study period. We wish to thank the SSDC and Sahaj Nepal officials especially Mr. Krishna, Mr. Yadav and Mr. Umesh for sharing their update information and situation at the ground. They have been valuable resource persons and accompanied with us during the field visits too. Similarly the excellent supports were provided by Indreni Rural Development Centre (IRDC) in managing the community of Banganga basin for excellent fieldwork. We thank CRC officials, particularly Mr. Nanda Kandangwa, RC, for their support in managing logistics doing field work. We have learnt many things from school teachers, students, and other key informant about the changing behaviours of the people with changing climatic conditions. The information provided by these people was also extremely valuable. Their observations during the field work were extremely valuable sources of information for us. Thanks. Dhruba Gautam Study Coordinator, Krishna Gautam, Field Coordinator Dipak Paudel, Technical Coordinator National Disaster Risk-reduction Centre Nepal (NDRC-Nepal) Baneshwor, Kathmandu, Nepal December 2007

Acronyms

AAN : ActionAid Nepal

CBO : Community Based organization

CC : Climate Change

CFUG : Community Forest Users Group

COP : Conference of Party

DADO : District Agriculture Development Office

DoHM : Department of Hydrology and Meteorology

DRR : Disaster Risk Reduction

FGD : Focus Group Discussion

GO : Government Organization

GoN : Government of Nepal

ICS : Improved Cooking Stove

IPCC : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

KII : Key Informant Interview

KP : Kyoto Protocol

MoEST : Ministry of Environment, Science and Technology

MoPE : Ministry of Population and Environment

NAPA : National Adaptation Programme in Action

NGO : Non-governmental Organizations

NTNC : Nepal Trust for Nature Conservation

PVA : Participatory Vulnerability Analysis

ToR : Terms of Reference

UNDP : United Nations Development Programme

UNEP : United Nations Environmental Programme

UNFCCC : United Nations ….

USCSP : US Country Studies Program

VDC : Village Development committee

WUA : Water Users Association

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Glossary of Local Nepali Terms

Baadh Flood

Bari Upland mostly used for maize and mustard cultivation

Bikashee Biew Chemical fertiliser

Chulo Cooking stove

Haat Local weekly market

Kathha Unit of land, 20 kathha equals to one bigha (1 bigha=0.67ha)

Khet Paddy land

Mausam Weather

Pala Harmful thick fog

Pesa Traditional occupation to run family livelihood

Prabidhik Technicians

Sanstha Institution /organization

Sukkha Droughts

Ubjani Production

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Executive Summary

1. Background: • The effect of heat trapping due to the increasing presence of green house

gases causes global warming and subsequent result of warming is known as climate change. According to third Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global average surface temperature has increased over the 20th century by about 0.6°C. Temperature rises beyond 2°C are likely to result in reduced crop yields and some ecosystems will be irreversibly damaged. It will contribute to result in much more flooding in low-lying areas with decline in food production, an increase in disease, and the extinction of plants, animals, and entire ecosystems. Particularly, the poor and most vulnerable people and the ecosystems in which they live and on which they depend will bear the brunt of the impacts of climate change.

• Although Nepal’s total greenhouse gas emission share is negligible compared to global community, Nepal has already encountered some of the negative impacts of climate change such as quicker glacial melt and glacier retreat. The climate changed induced natural hazards such as landslides, floods and droughts have affected the livelihood of poor and excluded. Despite these impacts, Government of Nepal is yet to make its way into country’s major planning on climate change.

• The impacts of climate change and adaptive measures are yet not well researched and documented. Given this context, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies by Poor and Excluded Communities in Western Nepal: A Comprehensive Study of Banganga River Basin: Arghakhanchi and Kapilvastu, Nepal was commissioned by ActionAid Nepal (AAN) with the broader objective of identifying the ways the climate change has impacted the poor and excluded and strategies communities have adopted to live with the impacts of climate change.

2. Outline: • The report is organized into seven sections. The first section provides the

scenario of climate change in global and national context and introduction of Nepal and study area with the second section. The third section covers objectives and methods while the climatic change trends in Nepal and study area is discussed in the fourth section. The impact of climate change in different sectors and adaptation strategies adopted by local people is discussed in fifth section. Conclusion and recommendation is given in the sixth section. The last section of the report presents the annexes.

3. Objectives: • The overall objectives of the study are to identify how climate changes are

noticed or observed by poor and excluded communities over a period of time

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particularly in the sectors like: agriculture, livestock, health, water, forest and biodiversity, and look at the impacts and effects made by these changes in the communities and their community based adaptation strategies.

4. Methodologies: • A number of methods and techniques were used based on the type of

information required to obtain to achieve the objectives. As the broad framework for analysis was to assess the status and situation on each of the key sectors the Participatory Vulnerability Analysis (PVA) was the main guiding tool to collect field level information. In order to broaden the ideas and concept about the study, relevant reports and documents related to DRR, climate change, climate change adaptation, and existing policy and strategy were reviewed. Climate related data like temperatures and rainfall of the relevant stations were collected from DoHM of GoN and analyzed. Several round table interaction meetings were organized with stakeholders and ActionAid Nepal to finalize the process, select the VDCs for studies. Checklists and guide questions were used during transect walk, vulnerability and hazard mappings exercise was conducted, time trend was analyzed for disaster history review, Venn diagrams were prepared, seasonal calendar developed and numerous focused group discussions held. Likewise, information was collected from key informants including the government stakeholders.

5. Climatic Change Trends in Nepal and the Study Area: • Analysis of recorded temperature and precipitation data in Nepal are limited

due to availability of data for only last 30 years. Studies have indicated that temperature in Nepal is increasing. The warming seems to be consistent and continuous after the mid-1970s. It is stated that the average warming in annual temperature between 1977 and 1994 was 0.06ºC/yr. The warming is found to be more pronounced in the high altitude regions of Nepal such as the middle Mountain and the high Himalaya, while the warming is significantly lower or even lacking in the Tarai and Siwalik regions. Likewise, rainfall is also increasing.

• Statistical analysis of the monthly data during 1971-2006 for the stations Taulihawa in Kapilbastu and Khanchikot in Arghakhanchi and during 1977-2006 for Pataki in Kapilbastu district reveals that monsoon rain for Patharkot and Kanchikot is decreasing and extremely decreasing for Taulihawa station. The data showed that the trend of monsoon rainfall was increasing in the country but it was decreasing in the basin.

• In the recent years, people also have experienced unusual phenomenon like: more thunderstorm but less rain, more wind, more mobility of clouds but less rain. Elderly people during discussion opined the big thunderstorm without rain is indicator of no potentiality of rainfall. People also have realized that

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the duration of monsoon has also drastically decreased. Now, the rain starts late and ends early. People used to use local knowledge for prediction of possible rain and they used to plan for cultivation. But all those predictions practices have started to fail now.

• In Kapilvastu, people shared that after the construction of Banganga barrage, the problem of flooding and inundation in the riverside of Motipur and Banganga/Kopuwa VDCs was increased. In the local people's experiences, the cases of droughts are also increasing. Most of the droughts cases are found when there is a need of rainwater. The experience of thick fog during winter morning is also new phenomenon for local people. The fog now remains for several weeks to months.

6. Climate Change, Its Impacts and Community Based Adaptation Strategies: • Though people have poor knowledge on the technical matters of climate

change but they have shown several evidences, which demonstrate that they have perceived, felt and experienced about its effects. The amount and patterns of rain-fall, the frequency and extent of droughts, the trends of crop failure due to emergence of new crop diseases, etc are some of the visible impacts. Through the exercise of historical timeline, people have informed the stories transferred from one generation to another about the changes of climate and its impacts in local context. They sometimes have used the local knowledge on the basis of position of clouds, wind flows, position of stars, rainbow and with insects, pest and animal behaviour for the prediction of weather but such predictions could not be completely relied upon. People have linked that these are due to climate change.

• There are many evidences that show that how climate change is affecting peoples' lives and livelihood. The rain pattern over the years is a live experience. People have been facing longer and frequent droughts, erratic rainfall, storms, thunderstorm and hailstone. As a result, crop failures are common; the cases of landslide, flooding/inundation, and riverside erosion are other phenomenon and further these are in increasing order. The spread of new water and vector borne diseases are other impacts of climate change. The most vulnerable ecological and socio-economic systems are those with the greatest sensitivity to climate change and the least ability to adapt.

• Climate change has impacted agriculture in the study area and the people have reported decreasing trends of crop production, more flowering and poor fruiting in the fruits and vegetables, reduced production from on-farm activities, explosion of pest and insect in crops, erosion of fertile top soil, reduction in working hours for agriculture, shift to use hybrid seeds, increasing workload of women and children and increasing trends of seasonal migration as a result of climate change. Yet the adaptation strategies of the affected people included their engagement in off-seasonal and alternative crop varieties, establishment of dairy cooperative, vocational skills

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building, accommodating in the crop growing season, initiation of community based micro-credit programs and adoption of improved agriculture practices, etc. Likewise, there has been reduction in grazing land, high mortality of livestock, closure of shifting livestock grazing in the study area. To adapt to these changes, people have started raising improved varieties of livestock and reclaiming the degraded land along the riverbank.

• The respondents shared that these days, with the changing pattern of climatic features, there have been different health problems. People have experience clear heat and cold related illness, cardio vascular problems, vector borne diseases like malaria, filaria, kala-azar, Japanese encephalitis, and dengue caused by bacteria, virus, and pathogens like mosquitoes and ticks, as well as diarrhoea, cholera and intoxication caused by biological and chemical contaminants in water. Birth of abnormal children is also experienced these days. People have been using mosquito nets to escape from the mosquito bites and also have given consideration in drinking water.

• Lowering the level of ground water, defunct farmer managed irrigation systems, threatening of the wetlands, etc are impacts observed in water resources. People have started protecting watershed to retain the water resources, rehabilitating traditional ponds/water bodies, promoting afforestation and conservation programmes and taking alternative measures to increase irrigation efficiency to cope with these impacts. Likewise, in the forestry sector, local people have observed forest resources depletion, forest resources affected from unidentified diseases, and even extinction of some species like of NTFPs because of changing climate. In order to reduce the impact to people, people shared that there have been initiatives for alternative energy sue, plantation of fast growing trees including bamboo and scaling community forest programmes. Because of the impact on forest resources, biodiversity is also being affected. Bees, aquatic animals, and birds are worst hit by the climate change. Habitat protection measures with awareness generating activities were taken by the community people to reduce the impact on biodiversity.

7. Remarks: • It has been observed from this study that climate change is evident in Nepal

and the impacts can be visualized. Therefore, concrete actions are required on the part of all stakeholders. Based on the overall findings discussed above, the study recommends different actions to community, local NGOs, and to AAN which is carrying our climate change adaptation initiatives.

• The communities should be mobilized for the conservation of watershed to protect the water resources. There is need to promote afforestation and conservation. Adoption of renewable energy technologies like bio-gas, solar energy, etc is needed to reduce the pressure on forest resources. In the downstream, communities should be encouraged to make safer homes and

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shelter, management of boats, raised roads and tube wells to reduce the impact of flood. As there are ample opportunities for raising improved varieties of livestock, the promotion of dairy cooperative could be one of the income generation activities for the local people. With this, there should be diverse agriculture that will help communities to adapt to the impacts of climate change.

• Local NGOs and partner NGOs of AAN should prepare suitable strategies and approaches for community based adaptation practices to climate change in order build awareness of people in large scale. Farmers should be encouraged to adopt alternative varieties like drought and flood resistance crops to grow more and to secure food and livelihood in difficult time with insurance at the time of piloting these actions. There is a need to establish community based early warning system as a part of preparedness through good communication and forecasting.

• As the climate change adaptation is relatively new area for local partner NGOs, there is a need of advance capacity building initiatives on science and art of climate change. These could be training, exposures and cross visits. Policy advocacy with debates and discourses on existing policies related to land, water, forest, disaster, energy etc and their implication on climate change is necessary by organizing different meetings and forums. There is a need to lead the advocacy for the formulation of policy related to climate change adaptation.

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Table of Content Acknowledgements Acronyms Glossary of local Nepali Term Executive Summary Chapter 1: Background 12 1.1 Background 12 1.2 Climate Change in the Nepal's Context 14 1.3 Plans and Policy Initiation for Environment and Climate Change Issues 14 Chapter 2: Nepal and the study area 19 2.1 Nepal 19 2.2 Socio-economic profiles of study area 19

2.2.1 Population 20 2.2.2 Caste composition 20 2.2.3 Language 20 2.2.4 Livelihood pattern 20 2.2.5 Food sufficiency status 21 2.2.6 Seasonal migration pattern 21 2.2.6 Land tenure system 22

2.3 Weather Characteristics of River Basin 23 Chapter 3: Objectives, Methods and Outline of Report 25 3.1 Objectives of the study 25 3.2 Methodology used 25

3.2.1 Review of Relevant literature and Information 25 3.2.2 Round table discussion 26 3.2.3 Building Rapport with local level stakeholders 26 3.2.4 Modality of the selection of VDCs 26 3.2.5 Design Instruments, Checklist and Guide Questions 26 3.2.6 PVA at Community Level 27 3.2 7 Meeting with Government Stakeholders 31 3.2.8 Reporting back to the Communities 31 3.2.9 Analysis the Vulnerabilities 31

3.3 Outline of the report 32 Chapter 4: Climatic Change Trends in Nepal and the Study Area 33 4.1 Temperature 33 4.2 Precipitation 34 4.3 Changes in Temperature and Precipitation 37

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4.4 Unpredictable weather events 37 4.4.1 Flood 38 4.4.2 Droughts 40 4.4.3 Thick fog (pala) 41

Chapter 5: Climate Change, Its Impacts and Adaptation Strategies 43 5.1 Agriculture 44

5.1.1 Impacts of climate change on Agriculture 45 5.1.2 Adaptation strategies 50

5.2. Animal Husbandry 52 5.2.1 Impact of Climate Change in Animal Husbandry 52 5.2.2 Adaptation strategies 54

5.3 Human Health 54 5.3.1 Impact of climate change on Human Health 56 5.3.2 Adaptation strategies 59

5.4 Water Resources 59 5.4.1 Impact of climate change in Water Resources 60 5.4.2 Adaptation strategies 61

5.5 Forest Resources 62 5.5.1 Impact of climate change on Forest Resources 63 5.5.2 Adaptation strategies 65

5.6 Biodiversity 66 5.6.1 Impact of Climate Change in Biodiversity 67 5.6.1 Adaptations strategies 68

Chapter 6: Conclusion and Recommendations 69 6.1 Conclusion 69 6.2 Recommendation 70

6.2.1 Community 71 6.2.2 PNGOs 72 6.2.3 AAN 72

References 74 Annex-1: Climatic Assessment of Study Area 78

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Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies by Poor and Excluded Communities in Western Nepal:

A Comprehensive Study of Banganga River Basin: Arghakhanchi and Kapilvastu, Nepal

Chapter 1

Background The first chapter introduces climate change, the underlying causes and subsequent impacts that local people have experienced over the years followed by the impacts of climate change in people's lives and livelihood in the global context. In the later section of this chapter, climate change in the Nepal's context is discussed. In this section, more emphasis is given to explain how different groups of people of Nepal have experienced the impacts of climate change with different cases and forms. Towards the end, a policy review on environment and climate change is presented. 1.1 Background Climate refers to the average weather and represents the state of the climate system over a given time period. Due to natural variability or as a result of human interventions, there is increase in the emission of the greenhouse gases reflecting variation of the mean state of weather variables including temperature, precipitation and wind (Orindi and Eriksen, 2005). The effect of heat trapping due to the increasing presence of these gases is understood as greenhouse effect which causes global warming and subsequent result of warming is known as climate change. There are many evidences of climate change that are being experienced by many people especially the poor and excluded around the world in different forms. According to third Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global average surface temperature has increased over the 20th century by about 0.6°C. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities. The global average surface temperature is expected to increase by 1.4°C to 5.8°C by 2100, depending largely on the scale of fossil-fuel burning. IPCC has determined that even if we take steps to reduce our greenhouse gas

Box 1: Vulnerability and its characteristicsVulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. In other words, vulnerability is a ‘set of conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of a community to the impact of hazards,’ (The Hyogo Framework 2005-2015, adopted by the UN at the World Conference on Disasters in 2005). It is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity. Among many, flood hazards as an impact of climate change, damages the infrastructures, erodes the valuable agriculture land and losses of thousands of lives and livestock.

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emissions now, the globe could warm up at a rate faster than it has in the past 10,000 years (CEN).

The effects of climate changes are multifaceted. Past and current emissions mean that an increase in temperature of 1°C to 1.5°C is inevitable. Yet the increase of 0.6°C that has already occurred is having a severe impact on global ecosystems and especially on poor people. To avoid the most serious impact of global warming and climate change, the global mean temperature should be limited to a 2°C increase above pre-industrial levels (UK Government, 2003). Temperature rises beyond 2°C are likely to result in reduced crop yields in most tropical, sub-tropical, and mid-latitude regions and some ecosystems will be irreversibly damaged or lost. It will contribute to result in much more flooding in low-lying areas with decline in food production, an increase in disease, and the extinction of plants, animals, and entire ecosystems (IPCC, 2007). Further, as a result of human activities, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are rising and with them, global temperatures. In addition to increases in temperature, global warming results in more extreme weather patterns: more rain, longer dry spells, stronger and more violent storms, more fires, and the spread of tropical diseases. As climate change pushes the world towards more extreme weather, more and more people will be exposed to recurrent disasters during their lives. IPCC (2007) predicted that there will be a widespread increase in the risk of flooding for many human settlements. Flooding and landslides, the unavoidable results of climate change, pose the most widespread direct risk to human settlements. It’s estimated that by 2025 over half of all people living in developing countries will be highly vulnerable to floods and storms. Food, health, water and energy, the building blocks of livelihoods may face many of the threats from, and responses to, global warming in the days to come. Without stopping the effects of global warming, it is clear that the viability of millions of people’s lives and livelihoods will be undermined; without significant new resources, millions of others won’t be able to adapt to changes that are already happening.

Particularly, the poor and most vulnerable people and the ecosystems in which they live and on which they depend will bear the brunt of the impacts of climate change. In both developing and developed countries, the impact of climate change can be much greater for indigenous communities who rely most directly on their immediate environments for subsistence and livelihood often living in the more remote and ecologically fragile zone (UNFCCC, 2004). World Bank (2003) also mentioned that all countries are vulnerable to climate change but the poorest countries and the poorest people within them are most vulnerable. Similarly, a study carried out by Regmi and Adhikari (2007) found that the impact of global warming is already being felt by the most vulnerable-the world’s poorest people and countries and its impact is severe on Nepal because of the geographical and climatic conditions, high dependence on natural resources and lack of resources to cope with the changing climate. Climate change is increasingly recognized as among the greatest challenges human society will face over

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the coming century. While it will affect everything from basic ecosystem processes to the spread of disease, some of the greatest impacts are anticipated to occur due to increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, i.e. storms, floods, droughts, etc.

Furthermore, the incidence and economic impact of climate related disasters has been increasing over recent decades (World Meteorological Organisation, Co-operative Programme on Water and Climate et al., 2006). As the Hyogo framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) highlights, DRR is essential if the world is to succeed in reaching the Millennium Development Goals (ISDR, 2005). Conceptually, reducing the risk of disasters is closely associated to adaptation processes. What makes people vulnerable? To most people today, this is an everyday question that is as simple as it is complex. 1.2 Climate Change in the Nepal's Context Although Nepal’s total greenhouse gas emission share is negligible compared to global community, Nepal has already encountered some of the negative impacts of climate change. Studies made by Department of Hydrology and Meteorology show that average temperature in Nepal is increasing approximately 0.06 degrees Celsius per year. The temperature in the Himalayas, however, is increasing at a faster rate, which is resulting serious impacts on the glacial lakes-the sources of water for Nepal. Many glaciers are retreating at a faster rate and rapidly melting glaciers means more seasonal variation in river flow resulting more floods and droughts in the country. Because Nepal has a complex, mountainous landscape, floods and landslides have also become more frequent and severe. The high dependence on natural resources for livelihood and inadequate resources to cope with are other reasons. These factors collectively contribute to result the vulnerable situation of the rural poor and excluded. About 85.8 percent of the total population reside in rural areas of Nepal and meet their energy demand from biomass combustion, particularly firewood, while about 15 percent of the total population living in urban areas is exposed to different levels of concentration of gases, including greenhouse gases. The Himalayas constitute a threatened ecosystem in the world. Himalayas in Nepal are geologically young and fragile and are vulnerable to even insignificant changes in the climatic system. This system is threatened through anthropogenic activities such as farming practices and natural resource consumption patterns (Regmi and Adhikari, 2007). The climate induced natural hazards such as landslides, floods and droughts affect the livelihood of poor and excluded (Gautam et al, 2007). Analysis of existing temperature records already shows an increasing trend in Nepal. This warming has been more pronounced in the middle mountain and the high Himalayas than in the lower Tarai1

1 It is marshy ground or meadow. It is the flat area lying to the south of the Churia range and extending to the Indian boarder. Geology and soil composition consists of recent alluvial plain, boulders, gravel sands, clay and fine loamy deep soils.

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and Siwalik2. But its effects are seen in the low lying area, i.e. the Tarai also. The analysis of climate data from four recording stations representing inner Tarai, mid mountains for the periods of early 1970s to 2000 and one for High Mountain for the period 1988 to 2000 has shown that there has been a clear warming trend in Nepal (Chaulagain, 2006). A number of possible climate change-related impacts on agriculture, horticulture, livestock, human health, water resources, forest resources and bio-diversity affecting the poor's livelihoods and the environment (Gautam et al, 2007). Nepal signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Rio de Janeiro in June 12, 1992 and ratified it on May 2, 1994. It has been regularly participating in conference of parties (COPs) and other subsidiary meetings and it also became party of Kyoto Protocol by submitting its instrument of Accession. So far, Nepal does not have any specific policies on climate change (more of which is discussed later); but it has some policies and programs to promote clean energy and energy efficiency. It is therefore, there is a need of comprehensive, multilateral response to climate change. In Nepal, the impact of climate change is not experienced in the same manner by the different groups of people. The poor communities are at the hardest hit by the climate change. In the rural area of Nepal, the livelihood of the poor and excluded is entirely dependent upon agriculture, livestock, water, forest resources and biodiversity resources. The changes in these sectors as a result of climate change have affected directly lives and livelihood of these rural poor. Particularly, women are more vulnerable due to climate change. Similar findings are recorded from studies carried out by Mitchell et al (2007) and Gautam et al (2007). According to these studies, climate change is affecting everybody, regardless of caste, ethnicity, sex, race or level of income but women and poor are at the worst hit. Women make up for 70% of the world’s poor. They have less access to financial resources, land, education, health and other basic rights than men, and are seldom involved in decision making processes. They are, therefore, less able to cope with the impact of climate change and are less able to adapt. The same studies also found that women in poor areas have started to adapt to a changing climate and can clearly articulate what they need to secure and sustain their livelihoods more effectively. Their priorities include a safe place to live and store their harvest and livestock during the monsoon season, better access to services such as agricultural extension, training and information about adaptation strategies and livelihood alternatives, and access to resources to implement effective strategies and overcome constraints. Among the many areas, the impacts of climate change are clearly observed by poor and excluded on agriculture, livestock, human health, water, forest resources and biodiversity.

2 The first range arising north of the Indo-gangetic plain, up to 1000 m, geology and soil composition consists of clay stone, sandstone, conglomerate and loamy skeletal. The term Siwaliks is used throughout the Himalayan region. Churia (or chure) is a Nepali word for Siwalik range. Locally, the word chure is used to describe a single hill crest, and Churia to describe a group or a range of hill crests

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1.3 Plans and Policy Initiation by Nepal for Environment and Climate Change Issues Various proven studies including Regmi and Adhikari (2007) suggest that Nepal has started some initiative for environmental protection and management since 1990s. The debates on the issues of climate change have even been started. The following sections highlighted some of the initiatives that Nepal has taken for environmental and climate change sectors.

• The Eighth Plan ((1992-1997): During this period, two major works were carried out by the then HMG/Nepal. These included the formulation of enactment of Environment Protection Act (1996) and Promulgation of Environment and Protection Regulations (1997) which helped to start the debate and discourse in environmental issues.

• The Ninth-Plan (1997-2002): The plan had prioritized agriculture, industrialization and tourism development through environment management intending to contribute to poverty reduction.

• The Tenth-Plan (2002-2007): The plan acknowledged the importance of weather for economic performance but was almost silence in climate risks issues.

• Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF): This framework included some ideas on impacts of weather and climate. (Shardul et al, 2003) finds that it discusses vector-borne disease control and emergency preparedness and disaster management, mitigation of floods and erosion in cultivated areas, and water harvesting to provide year-round water supply for irrigation. In addition to these, MTEF paid some attention on climate-related risks. But the framework is almost unspoken about relation of hydropower plants due to the variability in runoff, floods (including GLOFS), and sedimentation. The same situation was also observed in road sector. It did not discuss flood and landslide risks, water supply and sanitation, irrigation sectors due to climate risks.

• The National Conservation Strategy (NCS): NCS was a major step to systematically develop an appropriate strategy for environment and resources conservation in Nepal.

• Nepal Environmental Policy and Action Plan (NEPAP): After the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio, HMG/N established the Environmental Protection Council (EPC) under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister in 1992. Thereafter, NEPAP 1993 was introduced to carry out sustainable management of natural resources; to address the issues of population, health and sanitation, and poverty alleviation; to safeguard national heritage; to mitigate adverse environmental impact and to support in legislation, institutions, education and public awareness.

• United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD): Nepal signed the International Convention to Combat Desertification and ratified it in 1996. Nepal took active part in the UN Conference on Desertification (1977), and in the formulation of the UN Plan of Action to combat desertification for addressing impacts of desertification, land degradation, and climate change in an

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integrated way. Many of the responses to desertification, such as integrated watershed management and community-based soil and water management, would also enhance Nepal’s resilience to disasters and adaptive capacity to climate change.

• Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD): Nepal signed the CBD in 1992, and ratified it in 1993. The Country’s Biodiversity Strategy (2002) was prepared under the UNDP/GEF Biodiversity Conservation Project. It listed several climate-related risks, such as flooding and sedimentation, as threats to biodiversity.

• World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD): Nepal’s National Assessment Report for the WSSD (2002) recognized the links between climatic circumstances and land degradation, erosion and landslides. It also recognized the increase in landslide risks due to the effects of paddy cultivation and livestock grazing in the hills and mountains. However, adaptation to climate change was not specifically addressed.

• Sustainable Development Agenda for Nepal (SDAN): The SDAN listed Nepal’s vulnerability to climate change, natural disasters and environmental degradation among the constraints facing Nepal’s sustainable development. Though it did not mention climate change explicitly, there was a specific section on protection of the atmosphere.

• National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA): Nepal has prepared the project document to initiate the National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) with participation from a multi-disciplinary team, coordinated by Ministry of Environment, science and Technology (MoEST).

• Major Policies of Nepal in Environmental Sectors: National Wetlands Policy (2003), National Biodiversity Strategy (2002), Master Plan for the forestry sector (1988), National Parks & Wildlife Conservation Act (1973), Forest Act (2049), Forest Regulation (2051), Lake Protection Act (2053), Environmental Protection Regulation (2054), Buffer Zone Regulation (2052), Convention on Biological Diversity (1992), Aquatic Animals Protection Act (1961), Soil and Watershed Conservation Act (1982), Water Resources Act (1992), Environment Protection Act (1996), Environment Protection Rules (1997), and Ozone Depleting Substance Consumption (Control) Rules, 2001 are the major policies in Nepal with the objective of maintaining a clean and healthy environment by minimizing adverse impacts in the pursuit of economic development.

• Local Self-Governance Act, 1998: It empowered the local bodies such as DDC, VDC and the municipalities by outlining their environmental functions comprising of local-level planning of the environment, forest and bio-diversity conservation and use, and pollution control etc.

• National Agricultural Policy 2004: It emphasized to increase productivity rate and to protect and promote natural resources to utilize them in the interest of farmers.

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Among the country’s global environmental commitments, climate change is yet to be internalized by Government of Nepal (GoN). The climate change has yet to make its way into country’s major planning documents. It has also been left out of the Nepal Environment Policy and Action Plan. At the national level, meanwhile, Nepal has no specific policy documents dealing with climate change. The preparation of the NAPA is the first official initiative for mainstreaming adaptation into national policies and actions for addressing adverse impacts of climate change and reducing vulnerability to climate stimuli including extreme events. Nepal has prepared the project document to initiate the NAPA with participation from a multi-disciplinary team, coordinated by Ministry of Environment, Science, and Technology-MoEST (Alam, 2004).

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Chapter 2 Nepal and the study area

This chapter is broadly categorized into three parts. Nepal’s introduction with its different ecological regions is discussed in the first section followed by the socio economic profiles of the study area. In the third section, a brief introduction on weather characteristics of Banganga river basin has been discussed. 2.1 Nepal Nepal is a land-locked country located in South Asia between India and China. It is situated between latitudes of 26022' to 30027' north and between longitudes of 8004' to 88012' east. The east-west length of the country is about 800 km, and the average north-south width is 140 km. Within the 147,181 km2 area of the country, physiographic regions range from tropical forests in the south to the snowy Himalayas in the north. Nepal has a very diverse environment resulting from its impressive topography (please refer box 1). A cross-section of the country reveals that the topography generally progresses from altitudes of less than 100 m in the southern Tarai plain, up to more than 8,848m peaks in the north. It has extreme spatial climatic variation – from a tropical to arctic climate with a span of about 200 km. Nepal has five ecological regions viz Tarai, Siwalik, Middle Mountain, High Mountains and High Himalaya (please refer to box 1). This study only covers two ecological regions i.e. Tarai and Siwalik. 2.2 Socio-economic profiles of study area This study was commissioned in Banganga River basin of Arghakhanchi and Kapilvastu districts of Western Development Region of Nepal. This study includes a total of 6 Village Development Committee (VDCs). Subarnakhal and Simalpani VDCs were selected from Arghakhanchi while Motipur, Banganga, Kopuwa and Niglihawa VDCs were chosen from Kapilvastu. Out of the six VDCs under study, two are in the upper catchments whereas four are in the lower catchments of the Banganga River

Box 1: Description of Ecological Regions of NepalA. Tarai: This is the southern part of Indo-Gangetic plain. It extends nearly 800 km from east to west and about 30-40 km from north to south. The average elevation is below 750 m. It also covers Bhavar and Inner Tarai. The temperate is usually high. B. Siwalik: It is commonly called as Churia. Its elevation ranges from 700 to 1,500 m. Due to its poor geology as a result of loose friable nature and extensive deforestation in past decades, landslides are the common phenomenon which caused large sedimentation in the rivers that passes from Churia. The temperate is moderate. C. Middle Mountain: It is also popularly termed as Mahabharat. Its elevation is ranges from 1,500 to 2,700 m. These mountains are the first great barrier to monsoon clouds and the highest precipitation occurs on the southern slope of this range. The climate is moderate in this region. D. High Mountains: High Mountains range from 2,200 to 4,000 m. This region consists of phyllite, schists and quartzite rocks, and the soil is generally shallow and resistant to weathering. The climate is cool. E. High Himalaya: Ranges from 4,000 to above 8,000 m dominate the High Himalaya. The climate is of alpine type and the snowline lies at 5,000 m in the east and at 4,000 m in the west. The area lying to the north of the main Himalayan range is the Trans-Himalayan region, which restricts the entry of monsoon moisture and therefore the region has a dry desert-like climate.

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Basin. The VDCs selected from Arghakhanchi fall in Siwalik region while the VDCs from Kapilvastu fall in Tarai region. The climatic conditions are hot tropical (sometimes temperature reaching 420C to temperate. 2.2.1 Population The total number of HHs in the study VDCs is 8,930 and average HHs size is 5.6. The population of study VDCs is 50,811 in which male and female population is 24,893 and 25,916 respectively. The VDC wise total HHs with gender disaggregated population is given in table 1. 2.2.2 Caste composition The caste composition in the study area includes Brahmin, Chhetri, Dalit, Tharu, Rana, Magar, Tarai non-dalit3, Tarai-dalit4 and Mushlim. In Arghakhanchi, Brahmin, Chhetri, Dalit, Rana, Magar are in majority whereas Tharu and hill migrants Brahmin and Chhetri in are in majority in Kapilvastu (Please refer table 2). 2.2.3 Language Nepali language is mostly spoken in Arghakhanchi while Tharu is the major language spoken in Kapilvastu. Apart from Nepali language, some people use their mother tongue within their families and societies. 2.2.4 Livelihood pattern The livelihood of majority of the population depends upon

3 Tarai Non Dalit includes Maurya, Yadav, Thakur, Mishra, Rad/ Kurmi, Gupta, Gosain, Kumhal, Kandu, Gadariya, Sahani/

Mahi/ Godiya, Sonar, Mali, Bhujwa. 4 Tarai Dalit includes Bhangi, Pasi, Luniya, Dhobi, Lohar, Bishwakarma, Baskhor, Chamar, Badhahi, Bahi, Bari, Khatik, Kalwar and Gaddi.

Table 2: Major Cluster and Caste by VDCs District VDCs Clusters Dominant

caste groups

Arg

ha

khan

chi Subarnkhal Chhetri Tole Brahmin, Chhetri

Mager tole Magers Simalpani Simalpani Brahmin, Chhetri

Pawora Magers

Kap

ilvas

tu

Motipur Balapur Hill migrantsGheruwa Tharu

Banganga Uptaha Hill migrantsSukumbasi Tole Tharu

Kopuwa Loharibagiya Hill migrantsBankasiya Tharu

Niglihawa Jarlaiya Tarai caste peopleHarnampur Tharu

Source: Field Study, 2007

Table 3: Means of Livelihood in Studied VDCs VDCs Sources of livelihood (in percentage)

Agriculture/livestock

Seasonal labour

Service Business

Subarnkhal 86 6 5 3Simalpani 91 6 2 1Motipur 78 4 9 9Banganga 72 5 12 11Kopuwa 76 6 10 8Niglihawa 81 5 6 8AVR % 80.6 5.3 7.3 6.6Source: FGDs, 2007

Table 1: Population by VDCs VDCs Total

HHs Population

Male Female TotalSubarnkhal 585 1539 1710 3249Simalpani 1080 3023 3120 6143Motipur 2048 5312 5561 10875Banganga 1942 5252 5438 10690Kopuwa 1661 4773 5005 9778Niglihawa 1614 4994 5082 10076Total 8930 24893 25916 50811Source: CBS, 2001

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agriculture/livestock (80.6%) followed by seasonal labour (5.3%) and GOs and NGOs services (7.3%) and business (6.6%). The VDC wise means of livelihood is given in Table 3. Majority of the people depend upon agriculture and livestock to run their livelihood. Seasonal labour, services and business are other sources of livelihood. 2.2.5 Food sufficiency status The level of food sufficiency is very miserable. In an average, only 23% HHs have food sufficiency for the year round and 18% HHs have no food sufficiency even for 2 months (Please refer table 4). The food sufficiency months are decreasing with the increasing flooding and inundation problem. The level of food sufficiency is worst among the farmers who reside along the Banganga riverbank because of increasing events of flood every year.

2.2.6 Seasonal migration pattern In search of alternative employment opportunities many people mostly youth are forced to go outside the village, mostly nearby cities within Nepal and India, leaving women, children and elderly people at home alone. In such a situation, left over people are becoming further vulnerable from disaster because of their poor coping capacities. Seasonal migration normally peaks during November to January, after harvesting of the paddy fields and broadcasting of the winter crop mostly wheat, mustard and maize. Some go even early before the paddy plantation. As far as possible, male family members opt to stay at home to attend to rebuilding and securing their housing before the seasonal migration (Marcus Moench and Ajaya Dixit, 2007). People started to migrate seasonally in seeking alternative income source since the cases of hazards are in increasing trends. It was also observed that seasonal migration is far and wide. In every HH, one or more family members are away for earning some income during some period of the year (please refer table 5). The income secures a certain level and therewith food security but the earning even does not become sufficient to pay back loan and to run the family and house reconstruction (ibid). The main reasons for the seasonal migration as shared by the community are as follows:

Table 4: Well-being ranking VDCs Food sufficiency months (in %)

12 and more

6-11 2-5 > 2

Subarnkhal 15 16 43 26Simalpani 17 21 44 18Motipur 28 34 24 16Banganga 30 36 28 6Kopuwa 26 30 27 17Niglihawa 22 28 23 27

23 27.5 31.5 18.3 Source: Field Study, 2007

Table 5: Trends of seasonal migration by VDCsVDCs Seasonal migration (in percentage)

> 2 Yrs

1-2 Yrs

Only one season

Occasionally

Subarnkhal 12 35 45 8 Simalpani 8 37 49 6 Motipur 3 56 32 7 Banganga 7 49 28 16 Kopuwa 14 43 34 7 Niglihawa 4 16 62 18 AVR % 8 40 42 10

Source: Field Study, 2007

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• Flooding, inundation and sedimentation cause the failure of crop production. • With the population pressure, land is fragmented. The small plot of land is not

sufficient to produce adequate grains for the family. • Inadequate opportunities of on-farm and off farm labour within the village. • Loss of livestock due to out break of diseases. • Low interest in agriculture due to continuous distress and trauma from

landslide, flood, and sedimentation. Though people use indigenous knowledge about the flood forecasting, but they are not able to escape the impacts of flood always. With several cloudbursts in the upper catchments, people assumed there is a possibility of heavy rain. With this other precautionary measures are taken. 2.2.6 Land tenure system The land tenure system includes the categories of farmers in terms of having their own land; own land plus sharecropping, landless plus sharecropping, and landless plus rented others land, etc. The overall scenario of the land tenure system by VDCs is given in table 6. Table 6: Land tenure system by VDCs

VDCs Land tenure system (in percentage) Own land Own land plus

sharecropping Landless plus sharecropping

Landless plus rented others land

Subarnkhal 88 12 0 0 Simalpani 81 11 6 2 Motipur 72 16 7 5 Banganga 74 16 6 4 Kopuwa 63 15 15 7 Niglihawa 62 19 16 3 AVG % 73 15 8.5 3.5 Source: Field Study, 2007

From the table, it is clear that about 73% families cultivate their own land by themselves. Likewise, 15% families run their livelihood by cultivating their own land along with cultivate others land by sharecropping, and so forth.

2.3 Weather Characteristics of River Basin Banganga river basin is an umbrella in shape and is extended from the north of the East-west Highway to trans-boundary region of Indo-Nepal in the south. It extends in between 270 41’ 30” to 270 54’ 07” North latitude and 800 04’ 22” to 800 18’ 56” East longitudes. Most of its part extends over the east-south part of Arghakhanchi district. The southern depositional zone is called fan (Bhavar/inner Tarai) and it lies in northern side of

23

Kapilbastu. The total area of the basin is about 210 Km2, out of which around 85% lies in the hill slope and the valley and the rest in fan and Tarai region (Please refer the map 1).

The altitude of basin varies from 125m in the south to 2256 m in the north. The average slope of the basin is 28o. The basin has high potential to erosion and mass wasting varies from place to place (Ghimire, 2001). The Banganga River and Dhunger Khola and their tributaries are the major river draining in the Banganga basin. The Banganga River originates from the southern slope of the Mahabharat Range in the northwest and flows towards the south and then towards the east and join with Dhungre khola flowing from southern slope of the Mahabharat Range in north east side. The average drainage density of the basin is 3.8 km/km2.

A study carried out in 2001 shows that the agricultural land is increased by 85% from 1954 to 1990 whereas the forest land is decreased by 13.25% in the basin (Ghimire, 2001). This massive alteration in cultivated land and forest coverage reflects into adverse impacts on the hydrological and environmental processes in the basin. The distribution of soil and rock types that determines the potential of the hazards geologically is shown in the table 7. The VDCs of the lower catchments are suffering from several water induced disasters like flood, inundation, and epidemic whereas landslides and bush fires are other hazards in the upper catchments. Monsoon rainfall is the primary cause of flooding.

Map 1: Location Map of the Banganga River Basin

Location Banganga watershed

Scale

N

#S Village

Trails

Rivers or streams

Boundary

Nepal

Map 1 Source: Topsheets, scale 1:25,000; Topographical Survey Department, 1993

#S

#S

#S#S

#S#S

#S

#S

#S

#S#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

#S

Thada

Bhedamare

Neta_kharkaBahunkharka

Badachour Jaluke

Subarnakhal

Tallo Gangakhola

HaldeKudapani

Rajausa

Dangre

Ghorli_Khola

Amja

Simle

Patuwachour

Panidanda

Sattyawati

Dhungri Kholagau

KhursaneGandi

Karechuli

Bharatpur

Ghartisara

Mandre

Malarani

Simalpani

Nanda_Nagar

Bairiya

Udayapur

Logai

Pawara

Bahune Khola

Pakri Khola

Bhakari Dhunga

2 0 2 4 Kilometers

24

Table 7: Rock and soil types in the watershed Rock or soil types Area (ha) Percentage Alluvial fans, talus, colluviums 1133.2 5.5 Alluvium deposited or reworked by rivers 1774.85 8.4 Upper Siwaliks 1091.66 5.3 Middle Siwaliks 5707.35 27.5 Lower Siwaliks 4882.67 23.6 Bhaiskotta khola Sand stone and Shale 2424.29 11.7 Black and Carboneous shale 214.68 1.0 Ridhhkhola-Dhatibang Dolomities 932.45 9.3 Supa Khola Purpule shale 1602.03 7.7 Total 20733.18 100 Source: Aryal (1978)

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Chapter 3 Objectives, Methods and Outline of Report

This chapter briefly discusses the overall objective of the study and the methodology used during its different phases. The chapter later gives the general outline of the report. 3.1 Objectives of the study The overall objectives of the study are to:

• Identify how climate changes are noticed or observed by poor and excluded communities over a period of time particularly in the sectors like: agriculture, livestock, health, water, forest and biodiversity, and

• Look at the impacts and effects made by these changes in the communities and their community based adaptation strategies.

3.2 Methodology used The broad framework for analysis was to assess the status and situation on each of the key areas outlined in the terms of reference. The Participatory Vulnerability Analysis (PVA) was the main guiding tool to collect field level information. 3.2.1 Review of Relevant literature and Information In order to broaden the ideas and concept about the study, relevant reports and documents were reviewed. In addition to these, study reports, reports of other organizations related to DRR, climate change, climate change adaptation, and existing policy and strategy related to DRR were also reviewed to understand the issues and concerns of risks and vulnerabilities. As part of the review of secondary information collection, climatic related data like temperatures and rainfall of the relevant stations within the basin were collected from DoHM of GoN. A very less number of stations lie in the basins. Stations of Index are 0715 at 1760 amsl in Arghakhanchi district, 0721 at 200m amsl and 0716 at 90m amsl were chosen for Kapilvastu for this study. The length of records of rainfall data from these stations is good in climatic analysis because it insufficient to make such climatic analysis if the data availability is for less than 30 years, But a length of record of temperature in climatic station (Index 0721) is not significant for the climatic analysis; since it is only available for 20 years. The records of temperature data especially daily minimum temperature for most of the years are not available at the climatic stations in

Consultation meeting with Women in Upstream VDCs

26

the basin. However, the trend of temperature around the region of the basin was attempted from different literatures. And the maximum temperature trend based on 20 years data of Index 0721 has also been analyzed. The temporal variations of annual rainfall at each selected stations were plotted and studied separately. The mean monthly rainfall has been performed for all those selected stations. To do this, statistical analysis of rainfall, ‘EXCEL’ from the Microsoft Office Software has been used. 3.2.2 Round table discussion Several round table interaction meetings were organized between NDRC team and Sr. Theme Leader, EDM/ActionAid Nepal (AAN) to understand key issues related to study and its outputs. These interactions meetings were helpful in finalizing the study design and field work for team. 3.2.3 Building Rapport with local level stakeholders Preliminary meetings were organized with local level stakeholders to share the purpose of the study. It was useful to select the study VDCs and clusters within the VDCs. The meeting decided to choose two VDCs from Arghakhanchi and four VDCs from Kapilvastu district as sampled VDCs. Then, request letters were received from these VDCs to carry out this comprehensive study. 3.2.4 Modality of the selection of VDCs River basin concept was used while selecting the study VDCs. The diversity in terms of caste, ethnicity, hill migrants and indigenous Tharu and Madhesi communities was taken while selecting the clusters within VDCs. It has helped to explore the perspectives and issues of different people on climate change, its impacts in peoples' lives and livelihood and associated adaptation strategies. 3.2.5 Design Instruments, Checklist and Guide Questions The NDRC team then prepared the checklists and guide questions to collect primary

Risk-Vulnerability Mapping of Downstream VDCs

Risk-Vulnerability Mapping of Upstream VDCs

27

information from the field. Through the induction meeting, those checklists were shared with AAN partners in Kapilvastu like Sahaj Nepal and Siddartha Community Development Centre along with the overall concept of the study. Amendments on the checklists and guide questions were made on the basis of their feedback and suggestions. The checklists and guide questions were then tested in the field in order to make them more realistic, simple and to overcome duplication before commissioning in the real fieldwork. 3.2.6 PVA at Community Level In order to examine and map out the climate change adaptation by poor, women, and excluded communities focusing DRR, various tools and techniques of PVA were used. The team of NDRC stayed 7-8 days in each VDC and the community to collect primary information using PVA tools, which are discussed here under. a. Transects walks These walks were also organized to familiarize with the area and the people that were mostly affected from the flood, landslides, fire, droughts, epidemics, etc. This exercise was also useful to assess the changes in land use pattern of the study clusters.

Time line and trend analysis of downstream VDCs Date (BS)

Disaster Effects Trends

2019 Flood 26 houses were collapsed, 68 bigha of land was eroded by river

I

2028 Flood 10 bigha of land I2031 Flood 15 bigha of land I2030 Fire 2 houses (Bhusal and Pokhrel) I2032 Flood 1 house was collapsed, 30 bigha

of land was eroded by river I

2033 Flood 35 houses were collapsed, 25 bigha of land was eroded by river

I

2034 Hailstone Damage of crops D2041 Cold

wave Damage of winter crops, losses of livestock, 2 children were died, elderly people were in difficult situation

D

2055 Flood 5 kathha of land was eroded by river

I

2057 Flood 8 kathha of land was eroded by river

I

2058 Drought Outburst of epidemic, production reduced by 70%

I

2059 Flood 10 kathha of land was eroded by river

I

2061 Drought crop reduced by 45% I2060 Flood 5 kathha of land was eroded by

river I

2062 Flood 15 kathha of land was eroded by river, erosion of nursery

I

Source: Field study, 2007

28

b. Vulnerability and hazard mapping Vulnerability and hazard mappings exercise was found useful to know the context of people's vulnerabilities from climate change perspective and their adaptation strategies. In the exercise, people were requested to show the social infrastructures along with major vulnerabilities to disasters, the most affected areas from climate change, etc by sketching the village map in the ground. The discussion was then focused on the impact of climate change on agriculture land, grazing fields, community ponds, forest, water resources etc in the map. Before that, role was divided among the NDRC study team to act as facilitators, recorders and observers. The symbols were made on the basis of agreed consensus of the people. Once the mapping was made on the ground, it was copied in the large sheet of paper. The map was again presented in the mass and necessary corrections were made. c. Timeline and Trend Analysis Communities in each VDC were asked about the major phenomenon including history of area in terms of the disasters occurrence, the experiences of the climate change, etc. The purpose was to see and to explain the causes and consequences of climate change and adaptation strategies of local people. Local people shared the dates and the type of disasters that have occurred and the corresponding results/impacts. Elderly people contributed the information from decades back. The following process was used to explore the timeline and time trends.

• Initially, the purpose of the exercise was shared. Once the people knew about the purpose of information collection, they selected the elderly and knowledgeable people both men and women to list out the major events, their effects and trends.

• In case of confusion of years, agreed communities benchmarks were established that were later verified from other knowledgeable people.

• The role played by the communities

Time line and trend analysis of Upstream VDCs

Date (BS)

Disaster Effects Trends

2029, 30

Landslide 14 ropani of land damaged I

2032 Landslide 34 ropani of land damaged I 2032 Landslide 4 houses were collapsed, 12

ropani of land damaged I

2033 Landslide 12 houses were collapsed, 23 ropani of land damaged

I

2035 Hailstone Damage of wheat crops D2044 Cold

wave Damage of winter crops and losses of livestock

D

2055 Landslide 34 ropani of land damaged I 2057 Landslide 5 ropani of land damaged I 2058 Drought Outburst of epidemic,

production reduced by 70% I

2059 Landslide 42 ropani of land damaged I 2061 Drought Crop reduced by 60 % I 2060 Landslide 58 ropani of land damaged I 2062 Landslide 9 ropani of land damaged I

Venn diagram of Downstream VDCs

Source: Field study 2007

29

during each disaster event was also recorded. The climate change phenomenon and its impacts were discussed. Their increasing and decreasing trends were also discussed.

• At the end of the exercise, the lead person shared the timeline and trends to the community for the purpose of verification.

The major disaster events and their correlation with climate change were located with the time line of the disasters and from some informal meetings and interviews; a trend analysis of these disasters and their impacts on climate change was also carried out. This information provided an opportunity to make further analysis and to recommend the measures at the end. d. Venn Relationship Venn diagrams were prepared sitting with the community members based on different information on the existing support of various institutions. The following process was used to assess the Venn relationships:

• The participants listed down the major organisations working in the VDCs with their detail information.

• Discussion was made on how the absence of effective organisation/institution further promoted people's vulnerability to impacts of climate change.

• The participants were requested to identify the most important, least important, the more accessible and least accessible institutions at the time of people's need to reduce the effects of climate change.

• Further, they were asked to place institutions based on their interrelationship (one way and two-way relationship, near and far, more access and less access etc).

• The institutional mapping (Venn diagram) was then later presented in the mass for its verification.

Venn diagram of Upstream VDCs

Source: Field study, 2007

Seasonal calendar of downstream VDCs Major Incident

Months1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Flood River Cutting Fire Starvation Loan Diseases Fetching firewood

Thunderbolt Inundation Freed animal Snake bite Cold wave Encephalitis, Malaria

Eye disease, dysentery

Source: field work, 2007

30

e. Seasonal Calendar Seasons are the integral parts of people's lives and they exert an important impact upon the livelihood of the local people. In these sites, the calendar reflected the perceptions of the local people regarding seasonal variations in the various aspects and their relationship in climate change. It helped to identify heavy workload periods, periods of relative ease, credit, diseases, food security, wage availability and possibility of occurrence of some disaster like fire, thunderstorm, flood, landslides, experience of climate change impacts, etc. It also established the pattern of crop cultivation and vulnerability, crop diversification and changes in climate. It helped the community to identify the most vulnerable group according to seasonality. For this, the following process was adopted.

• People were asked to list down the major events of the year and then fit it in to calendar.

• It was discussed that how seasonality propagated vulnerabilities and how people coped with such vulnerabilities.

• At the end of the discussion, the calendar was shared in the mass for the purpose of triangulation.

f. Problem Tree for Casual Analysis Casual analysis was very important to know the types of problems and their underlying causes and effects of climate change. The participants were mobilised to identify major problems and their cause and effects. For this, pair wise ranking was made to identify the most crucial problems for climate change. For clarity, the facilitators drew the sketch of tree by showing its three parts: the root, stem and branches. The stem was symbolised as problem, roots as causes and branches as effects. This exercise was able to analyse the level of awareness of the people at one hand and on the other hand to identify the areas for interventions for the community actions to ensure that proper DRR interventions are implemented in the community. g. Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) The FGDs were organized to find potential areas where the communities needed to focus in the coming days for DRR and climate change adaptation. The objective of this exercise was to find out the current practices and plans of making communities safer from climate change adaptation perspective.

Seasonal calendar of upstream VDCs Major Incident Months

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Landslide River cutting Fire Starvation Loan Diseases Fetching firewood Thunderbolt Snake bite Cold wave Encephalitis, Malaria Eye disease, cholera, dysentery

Source: field work, 2007

31

h. Key informant interview These interviews were made with Teachers, ex-VDC representatives, social elites, mother groups, local NGOs and CBOs representatives, saving and credit groups, water users association and community forest user's group representatives. They provided key information and shared their reflections about climate change and the adaptation approaches to reduce its impacts. FGDs were organised with male, female and mixed groups taking both hill migrants and indigenous Tarai people separately. The gender, social inclusion and different occupations were kept in mind while selecting the participants for FGDs. The key findings arrived from KIIs and FGDs were later shared in the same mass meeting in order to ensure authenticity of the information, its reliability and validity. 3.2 7 Meeting with Government Stakeholders The perspective of different stakeholders on disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation was important to know. Therefore, meetings were organized with district level stakeholders such as Agriculture Service Centre, Livestock Service Centre, Forest Range Post, Sub-health Post, and some non-government organisations (NGOs)/Community Based Organisation (CBOs) and ex-Village Development Committee (VDC) officials. The main purpose of these meetings was to record the perception and views on the climate change impacts and adaptation strategies to reduce the risks. 3.2.8 Reporting back to the Communities Once the information and data were collected through varieties of tools and techniques in the presence of small groups as well as at the individual interview, mass meeting was organized at the end of PVA exercise to present all the PVA findings in each VDC. The purpose of this exercise was to share main findings about the causes, effects, impacts of climate change and their adaptation strategies adopted by the communities and to motivate the communities in the various aspects of climate change adaptation process. 3.2.9 Analysis the Vulnerabilities In order to arrive into specific conclusion, the information gathered from various sources was synthesized, categorized and analyzed before final write up of report. All issues related to climate change, its causes, effects, impacts and adaptation strategies

Problem tree: Downstream VDCs

Problem tree: Upstream VDCs

32

adopted by the communities especially, poor, women, excluded explored from PVA process were categorized in to various forms in order to derive key findings, conclusion and to make major recommendations. 3.3 Outline of the report The report is organized into seven sections. The first section provides the scenario of climate change in global and national context and introduction of Nepal and study area with the second section. The third section covers objectives and methods while the climatic change trends in Nepal and study area is discussed in the fourth section. The impact of climate change in different sectors and adaptation strategies adopted by local people is discussed in fifth section. Conclusion and recommendation is given in the sixth section. The last section of the report presents the annexes.

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Chapter 4 Climatic Change Trends in Nepal and the Study Area

This chapter mainly focuses the climatic change trends in Nepal and study area in terms of temperature and precipitation and changes in these two factors. With the thorough informational and analysis, the chapter at its later part gives the information on unpredictable weather events like flood, droughts and thick fog (pala) and its relationship in climate change. 4.1 Temperature Tarai belt is the hottest part of the country where the extreme maximum temperature reaches more than 45ºC. The highest temperature ever recorded was 46.4ºC in Dhangadhi, a town in far western Tarai, in June 1995 (MoPE, 2004). Similarly, 1990s was the warmest decade and year 2005 was the warmest year on record, followed by 1998 and 2002. The same types of information are also observed by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DoHM). The annual mean temperature is however around 15ºC, and increases from the north to the south with exceptions in the mountain valleys. The temperature differences are most pronounced during the dry winter season, and least in the middle of the monsoon. Analysis of recorded temperature and precipitation data in Nepal are limited. One of the reasons behind this is relatively short length of records of about 30 years. From available studies, it has been found that temperature in Nepal is increasing at a rather high rate. The warming seems to be consistent and continuous after the mid-1970s. The average warming in annual temperature between 1977 and 1994 was 0.06ºC/yr (Shrestha et al. 1999).

Changing rainfall patterns and higher temperatures have forced people to shorten the growing season and switch to more expensive hybrid crops. Frequent droughts and floods are eroding community's assets and people's indigenous knowledge and leaving people more vulnerable to disaster. The warming is found to be more pronounced in the high altitude regions of Nepal such as the middle Mountain and the high Himalaya, while the warming is significantly lower or even lacking in the Tarai and Siwalik regions. High increase in summer river flow provides further evidence that high summer temperatures are leading to fast glacial melt in the Himalayas. Further, warming in the winter is more pronounced compared to other seasons. In this sense, the trends in observed data are in agreement with projections made by climate models. It can be seen that there is a general resemblance between these two series: the generally decreasing trend from the 1940s to the 1970s and the continuous increasing trend thereafter. This suggests that the climatic variations in Nepal are closely connected to global climatic changes.

34

Similar warming trends observed in Nepal are also observed in the Tibetan Plateau. Liu et. al. (2002) shows that warming is more pronounced in higher altitude stations than in lower ones in the Tibetan Plateau. In contrast, the widespread area of lowland India does not show significant warming. This suggests that the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau, being elevated regions of the globe, are sensitive to and affected by climate change. The people of study area also observed that summer are hotter and winters are colder. They felt the increase in temperature especially after 1993. The uses of mosquito nets are widely used after this year. There were several incidences of drying up of maize crops in the hills due to more temperature and frequent droughts cases. In order to know the situation of temperature trends, temperature data in Taulihawa station during 1989-2006 was analyzed. Only the data of maximum temperature records for station Taulihawa (0716) was analyzed and this is shown in figure 1. The graph shows that the annual maximum temperature is significantly decreasing. The downstream of the basin experienced not a long term decreasing trend of temperature from the records of year of data (1987) to the end 1990s followed by significantly decreasing trend after 2000. The average annual maximum temperature for this station is 31 0C.

4.2 Precipitation Majority of the climate related hazards are linked with flood induced disasters due to changing pattern of rain in the recent decades. Local community has similar experiences on the changes in the climate in the recent decades.

Box 2: Summer is hotter and winter is colderIn our experiences, hotness and coldness both have increased. We are living in this area since generations. We never experienced the hotness as in recent years. We have realized that before 2040BS (…AD), the temperature was usual. We were able to work in the field through out the day but now, w have to break at least 3-4 hours in the afternoon because of the extremely high temperature. We don’t know why longer droughts are continuously occurring? As a result of this, we have started to use mosquito net. This practice was also started after 2040. May be droughts are responsible to increase the temperature. We are not prabidhik (technicians). Like increase in temperature, winters are more painful for us especially to our children, elderly and aged livestock. This is new challenge for us. The occurrence of pala (thick fog) for several days is the new phenomenon. We never burnt firewood during the day time to warm ourselves. After 2052, thick fog remains even more than 15-30 days. It has caused our life very difficult. We think, all these phenomenons reflect changing climate. -Mr Shambhu Prasad Kewat and others, Niglihawa

Figure 1: Annual Maximum Temperature at station Taulihawa

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30

31

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1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Years

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The annual average precipitation in Nepal is 1907 mm, with 80% of it falling during the monsoon season (from June-September). Precipitations increase when moving from the western to eastern part of the country. The northwest corner has the least rainfall, situated in the rain shadow of the Himalayas. Rainfall also varies by altitude; areas over 3,000m experience a lot of drizzle, while below 2,000m, heavy downpours occur. Nepal receives abundant rainfall but its distribution is not homogenous. The irregular patterns of the rain are the main causes of floods, landslides, and water induced disasters. In Nepal, most of the floods occur during the monsoon season (June to September) when heavy precipitation coincides with snowmelt in the mountains. Spatial distribution of rainfall is also the reason for occurrence of floods, landslides, and other water related extreme events in the country. US Country Studies Program (USCSP) found that the annual precipitation would increase significantly which reflects that it will likely become drier during the dry season, with a significantly wetter monsoon season. This pattern of precipitation would likely cause droughts during the winter months and floods during the monsoon. In order to know the monsoon and annual rainfall trends in the basin, statistical analysis of the monthly data during 1971-2006 for the stations Taulihawa in Kapilbastu and Khanchikot in Arghakhanchi and during 1977-2006 for Patharkot in Kapilbastu district was analyzed. Monsoon rainfall trend for Patharkot station and Kanchikot indicated that it is decreasing but extremely decreasing for Taulihawa station (please refer figures 2-4 in annex 1). The comparative analysis of monsoon months rainfall and average total annual rainfall for all selected stations is also analyzed (please refer figure A). The

Figure A: Compartive analysis of monsoon rainfall and average total annual rainfall for all selected stations

0

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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Averagetotal

annual

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data showed that the trend of monsoon rainfall was increasing in the country but it was decreasing in the basin. Similarly, the annual rainfall trend in the basin was almost decreasing (please refer figures 6-8 in annex). The annual rainfall trend for the station Taulihawa was also significantly decreasing whereas for the others two stations are almost decreasing. It means the downstream of basin is significantly dryer than before. Similarly, the mean monthly rainfall during the monsoon months in month-wise for all three selected stations has been analyzed and the trend is shown in annex 1. In the study area, people have experienced that the amount of rain after 1990 is continuously decreasing. For instance, before two decades, there was a practice of Chattari and Sauin (local umbrella made up of leaves and bamboo) for each and every family member for monsoon season. It was because the rain is falling continuously even for two weeks. But now the practice of arranging chattrai and sauin is almost over as there is no need because rain remains only for 2-4 hours in one event. People observed that there is havoc and erratic rain for few hours to day and stopped for several days. People used to use local knowledge for prediction of possible rain and they used to plan for cultivation. When wind blew from east to east, when chilly and tobacco became wet, when people suffered from bath diseases, when the cloud turned red at the time of sunset, when bhulcharo barked and flew towards north, during sukra rise and set, etc, it was considered that rainfall will take place. But all those predictions have failed now. In the recent years, people also have experienced unusual phenomenon like: more thunderstorm but less rain, more wind, more mobility of clouds but less rain. Elderly people during discussion opined the big thunderstorm without rain is indicator of no potentiality of rainfall.

People also realized that the duration of monsoon has also drastically decreased. Before 1989, the monsoon rains used to start at 15th of June and remained up to 15th of October. But now, there is no certainty of rain. The rain starts late and ends early.

Box 3: Mausam are unpredictableThe amount of rain in the recent years is continuously decreasing. We have no rain in Bhadra (August 15-September 15) for 10 years. It has hampered the production of paddy. We are also surprised that why our traditional knowledge and predictions are failed?. In the past the old aged experienced people used to predict for possibility of rain and droughts. Accordingly we used to make plan for cultivation as well as harvesting the crops. For example, when wind blown from east to east, when chilly and tobacco became wet, when people suffering from bath diseases, when the cloud turns red at the time of sunset, when bhulcharo (a kind of bird) became bark and fly towards north, during sukra (especial star) rise and set, etc, were considered the symptoms of rain. All these predictions are now not workable. We are realized that the changing in mausam (weather) is the main factor for unbalancing the nature and so as to occurrence of rain. -Mr Devi Prasad Acharya, Kopuwa

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4.3 Changes in Temperature and Precipitation OECD has carried out 17 General Circulation Models for Nepal for assessing changes in the areas average temperature and precipitation which reflects that there is a significant and consistent increase in temperatures for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100 across the various climate models. It also has shown that increases in temperatures are somewhat larger for the winter months (December, January, February) than the summer months. Climate models also project an overall increase in annual precipitation. The signal however it's somewhat more pronounced for the increase in precipitation during the summer monsoon months (June, July and August). These results are broadly consistent, though more pronounced than the Country Study for Nepal that was based on outputs from four older generation Global Climate Models (Agarwala et al., 2003). Thus, based on this analysis, there is a reasonably high probability that the warming trend already observed in recent decades will continue through the 21st century. There is also a moderate probability that the summer monsoon might intensify, thereby increasing the risk of flooding and landslides with subsequent impacts on agriculture and livelihoods.

A study conducted in the vicinity of Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake in Dolakha district suggests that mean temperature is increasing annually by 0.019°C with an increase in average summer temperature of 0.044°C. This has resulted in increase in rainfall by 13mm per year, while the number of rainy days is decreasing by 0.8 day per year. Consequently, river flow is increasing at the rate of 1.48m3/s per year, which is about 1.5 times higher than increased precipitation (Dahal, 2006). But the temperature and precipitation data of Taulihawa station is something different. This also shows the changing patterns of rain and droughts in the study area. 4.4 Unpredictable weather events People get prepared for their activities and plans as per the nature of weather patterns. These are based on the past experiences on nature of clouds, wind flows, historical time trends of weather pattern, long term observations and the acquired knowledge from the elderly people. Many people in the rural areas were found further vulnerable due to climate related phenomenon. It is because they are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. In the recent years, people have realized some unpredictable extreme climatic events such as intense rainfalls, longer and frequent droughts, heat stress, hot winds, cold waves, hailstones and snowfalls, etc. As a result, the lives and livelihood of people is always at risks and people are vulnerable.

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4.4.1 Flood CRED (2003) found that from 1954 to 2002, floods have affected over a million people in Nepal. During this period, floods killed 5,003 people (24% of deaths from total disasters), left 69,350 homeless (45% from total disasters), and caused damages amounting to USD 990,613 (75% from total disasters). Similarly, a study conducted by Nepal Trust for Nature Conservation (NTNC) found that Nawalparasi and Kapilvastu in the western region and Mahottari in the central region are highly flood prone districts which have received no or very limited government or external support for

disaster preparedness. Flash floods and a series of dams along the Indo-Nepal border are the most common causes for flooding. Deaths are recorded with other extensive devastation: houses and vast land masses are washed away, river banks are breached, and peoples’ assets such as animals, standing crops, food stocks and non-food items are damaged or lost. Due to changing patterns of rain, people are continuously suffering water-induced disasters. In the hills, more cases of landslides, soil erosion are recorded whereas the Tarai area is affected by the flooding, inundation, river side cutting/erosion, sedimentations, etc. These events have resulted crisis for livelihoods of smallholder farmers as the flood impact more on the live and livelihood of rural poor. Similar findings are also observed by Gautam et al (2007). According to this study, the major impacts inferences from the discussion were: river cutting the agricultural land, forceful migration of settlements that reside along the riverbank, and sedimentation of cropland by boulders and sand. In the other hand, due to erratic rain, flash flood and longer droughts, the production of crop has decreased and its trend is continuously increasing. The unexpected diseases in the crop during and post flood situation also have caused decrease in crop production. It was shared that the size of the cultivated land was decreasing whereas the population was increasing every year. The same study also found that the flood damages the crops and land whereby making women further poor, and forces them to fall in the vicious circle of poverty. It reduces the socio-economic strengths and compels to take loan from private moneylender to run

Box 4: Floods and landslides worsen the livelihoodsDue to the climate change, we are compelled to face several floods and droughts even within the same year. The settlement along the river banks are swept away by flood many times and the productive land in the hills are continuously eroded by landslides. The cases of floods and landslides are in increasing. We have been facing the flooding problems since 2004 continuously. In Motipur of Kapilvastu, this year, the flood damaged seven houses, eroded 15-18 bigha of land and changed the river course. Flood and landslides of 2018BS (…AD) has caused over siltation of Banganga riverbed. As a result, water in the river is becoming less. Until 2029BS (…AD), we used to cross the Banganga River through elephants as the amount of water was much even in the winter. Before 036-037BS (…AD), the width of the river was also narrow. But now there is no water during the winter. We have experienced the effects of climate change because of our long experience with the realities of the local environment. The extraction of sand, boulders and stones have caused for further erosion of land along the river bank. -Mr Budhi Ram Tharu, Motipur

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their livelihood. The flood damages stored seed and grains due to flooding and inundation. Its direct impacts are visualised by the women on the crop of next year planning and thus on the food security. Larger investment and fewer returns from the agriculture activities discourage the women to be involved in this sector. But there is no alternative. Hence, poor investment further impacts on the production and it discourages them to fully rely on agricultural activities (ibid). It was found that erratic rain, floods, droughts and other natural calamities are the common phenomenon in the study village and people experienced these unusual situations for more than 15 years. These situations are inviting new fear and trauma. Gautam (2007a, b, c) also observed that in the flood affected area, people are suffering from many socio-psycho problems due to poor social network, inequality, poor social institutions and integration, poor social insurance and social solidarity, etc. Similar findings are also observed by Gautam (2006a, b) and Gautam (2004) in eastern Nepal. According to him, in the flood affected area, people are suffering from many psycho-socio problems due to relocation, poor social closure, collective action and community safety. When a community is hit by natural calamities, all of its social institutions are likely to be affected. Similarly, Gautam et al (2007) identified that after natural calamities, the entire social fabric that defines a population as a community is seriously weakened. People have to relocate some permanently, hence neighbourhoods are destroyed, friendships are severed, support networks are broken and family relationships come under greater stress. Schools, social groups and families are apt to never be the same. In Kapilvastu, people shared that after the construction of Banganga barrage, the problem of flooding and inundation in the river side of Motipur and Banganga/Kopuwa VDCs was realized. The river course was also widening. The settlements along both bank of river is being threatened every year from flood. But in fact the deforestation in upper catchments is the main problem as river carries soil and boulders along with water and deposits in the flood plain, which cause the problem of flooding and inundation. It was observed that communities have initiated many actions to build raised embankments to connect the villages to each other and to the main road, providing an escape route during the flood season. Culverts are being built to reduce water pressure, and tube-wells with raised hand pumps are constructed to guarantee safe drinking water when flood levels rise during monsoon. Flood forecasting, early warning system and community based flood management can save many lives and properties before, during and after the flooding situation. In the study area, communities are enriched with indigenous knowledge on flood forecasting, early warning and flood management practices. Though they have inadequate knowledge on technical aspects about these issues, the nature of continuously

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struggling with the flood disaster every year make them more knowledgeable in these aspects. In several instances, their predictions about the rain and flood have come true and the practices as part of the early warning system and flood management have become more realistic. This is largely because they know the local context, the physical set up, the problems of floods and possible solutions. Therefore, flood affected communities are the storehouse of extensive knowledge on local physical condition and history and trends of the flood. As a part of flood forecasting, people have been using many skills and knowledge like position of the cloud in the sky, watching the extent of rainfall in upper catchments and Churia area, mobility of ants, abnormal fly bite, and abnormal crying/voices of animals and birds. Similarly, people also used position of stars, magnitude of hotness, the magnitude of thunderstorm and wind blown as early warning indicators. As part of adaptation actions before the flood, people have been using some measures like management of search and rescue related materials in advance, stocking Non Timber Forest Products (NTFPs) as medicine to treat livestock, creating small drainage in each plot of land, preparing the khatiya/palang of bigger height and using doko to save chicken from flood. Similarly, people also practice preparing the grain storage, procuring essential drugs in advance, managing firewood, storing dried food for livestock, improving drainage, raising homestead and increasing the height of hand pumps. It was found that the people from lower catchment were more knowledgeable and aware to reduce the impacts of flood. 4.4.2 Droughts In the local people's experiences, the cases of droughts are also in increasing. Most of the droughts cases are found when there is a need of rain water. Such events are generally: during the seed bed preparation, flowering stage of the paddy, irrigating wheat and other winter crops. There is a belief that if there is even one star twinkling at night in the month of July-August, then the production of crops is decreased by 100,000 muri5. But all these perceptions are like fables. It was found that frequent droughts destroy and erode social assets which are the very means for adaptation. When their frequency and intensity increases, poor communities are left with no time to recover from previous impacts through either asset accumulation or acquiring the skills and knowledge necessary for adapting to future

5 1 muri equals 80 kg

Box 5: The impacts of drought are even severeWe have been experiencing the impact of droughts as excessive heat; poor drinking water supply; poor crop yields; lack of litter and grass; food shortages and hunger. These are strong systems of droughts. In drought period, many people suffer from many diseases. In such a situation, we have no alternatives other than to sale our livestock, land, jewelry and other household items to run livelihood. Some people also borrow some money from money lenders and saving and credit groups. The loss from a year’s drought affects for number of years. -Ms Radha Magar, Subarakhal

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climate changes. Consequently, they are being subjected to continuous hunger and deeper vicious circle of poverty and vulnerability. Regmi and Adhikari (2007) found that disasters severely disrupt livelihoods and community development, whether they are flash floods or slower onset events, such as drought. In fact, droughts can affect a greater number of people, and often the event does not bring assistance until it is very late. By that point, many families could have sold off their productive assets, and turned to experience a precarious state. 4.4.3 Thick fog (pala) The experience of thick fog during winter morning is also new for local people. Yes, the fog in winter is natural phenomenon but now the pattern of fog is also changing. The fog now remains for several weeks to months. Before 2036BS (…AD) there was no problem of pala (thick fog) in winter. Before 2043BS (…AD), fog remained only for 4-5 days. The smoke from factories; burning from increasing population and resulting change in climate are the main reasons for pala to remain for several days. The pala during the winter cause decrease in the production of winter crops. Potato and pulses are badly affected from pala. The cultivation of mustard is almost zero and there is no crop of chana (beans) in the recent years. People opined that if they have paddy that could be harvested within a short duration, people could harvest it earlier to allow cultivation of early winter crops to be protected from pala. People also shared that the trends of pala is increasing while the trend of rain is decreasing. A strong correlation between pala and rain is also observed by the local people. As there was no problem of pala last winter, there was excess of rain during last monsoon. Last years' rain is considered as good rain within ten years of period. The thick fog is drying forest resources, the Sisau trees at one hand and people cite example of its affect in livestock deaths.

Box 6: Thick fogs are harmful nowWe also experience thick fog during winter and ii used tobe beneficial for lentil crop. But surprisingly all the winter crops are affected from thick fog and we are compelled to use pesticide to reduce the effect of thick fog. This problem started after 2042BS (1995AD). -Mr Laxman Chaudhary, Banganga-7, Sukumbasi Tole

Box 7: Production of winter crops has drastically decreased

In the past the pala was evident before and after 2 days of Maghe sakranti (15th January) but now it remains for a month. Due to this the production of potato, tomato, lentil, and mustard is drastically reduced. People are unable to harvest mustard and other winter crops because of thick fog. -Mr Barma Singh, Jarlaiya, Niglihawa

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Hence, the changes in weather events drastically changes the way of people's lives and livelihoods. Frequent droughts and flooding cases are not only eroding the social assets and knowledge of people, but also leaving people more vulnerable to disaster and pushing them into hunger, famine and poverty.

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Chapter 5 Climate Change, Its Impacts and Community Based Adaptation Strategies

This chapter explains how climate change is linked to various sectors and how these sectors are affected from climate change. The broad sectors of analysis include agriculture, animal husbandry, health, forestry, water and biodiversity. Though people have poor knowledge on the technical matters of climate change but they have shown several evidences which demonstrate that they have perceived, felt and experienced about its effects. The amount and patterns of rain-fall, the frequency and extent of droughts, the trends of crop failure due to emergence of new crop diseases, etc are some of the visible impacts. Through the exercise of historical timeline, people have told the stories transferred from one generation to another about the changes of climate and its impacts in local context. They sometimes have used the local knowledge on the basis of position of clouds, wind flows, position of stars, rainbow and with insects, pest and animal behaviour for the prediction of weather but such predictions could not be completely relied upon. People linked that these were due to climate change. There are many evidences that show that how climate change is affecting peoples' lives and livelihood. The rain pattern over the years is a live experience. People have been facing longer and frequent droughts, erratic rainfall, storms, thunderstorm and hailstone. As a result, crop failures are common; the cases of landslide, flooding/inundation, river side erosion are other phenomenon's and further these are in increasing order. The spread of new water and vector borne diseases are other impacts of climate change. The most vulnerable ecological and socio-economic systems are those with the greatest sensitivity to climate change and the least ability to adapt. Nepal is closely linking climate change adaptation to poverty alleviation, in addition to maximizing synergies with other environmental concerns such as land degradation, biodiversity, and disaster reduction. Nepal's major natural resources, biodiversity and water, are at the forefront of climate vulnerability (Raut, 2006). At a conceptual level, adaptation in human systems can be thought of as driven by two core processes: selective pressures (the equivalent of natural selection in ecosystems) and what might be termed agency-driven innovation (that is, proactive forms of innovation or action in response to perceived constraints and opportunities). These two processes are not separate; they interact as agents experience selective pressures or perceive opportunities and most commonly act pro-actively or ‘adapt’ within the limits of their capacities, perceptions and priorities. Nepal’s complex topography and geography leaves it quite vulnerable to climate change. Mainly the agriculture, animal husbandry, health, forestry, water and biodiversity, among others, would have serious consequences by the effects of climate change. The following section deals the general background, the

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impacts of climate change in these sectors and adaptation strategies adopted by the people. 5.1 Agriculture Since long, Nepal is considered one of the agriculture dominated countries and livelihood of the people is entirely dependent on agriculture. Food, the basic need for lives, is also acquired from agriculture. Unfortunately, this sector is particularly vulnerable to the vagaries of the weather. Temperature, humidity, solar radiation and precipitation are important climatic factors for crops. Permanent changes in these factors can lead to failure of crops and subsequent low crop production. Extreme climatic events such as intense rainfalls causing flooding and landslides, droughts and other stress are undesirable. The associated crop failure also invites famine. Therefore, whether it brings increasing floods and storms or worse drought, climate change has been havoc for poor farmers, jeopardizing their livelihoods and threatening their food security in the long run. With staggering increase in population and food demand, even a slight decline in annual food production is a matter of great concern in the country like Nepal. This sector is adversely affected by the loss of top fertile soil due to soil erosion, landslides and floods. Soil loss is a major cause of decline in agriculture production and the negative effects of climate change may further aggravate this situation. The agriculture sector has many challenges. First, numerous studies highlighted that across the country, over half of all households rely on less than 0.5 hectares (0.67ha equals 1 bigha) of land to support each family of around six members. Second, the development of agriculture is still in subsistence level. Third, limited crops are the sources of food security. Paddy in the Tarai and maize, wheat and barley in the hills are the common crops to grow. Forth, there is negative correlation between increase in population and food demand with total annual production due to many reasons including variation in weather and climatic patterns. The flood related disasters challenges the heavy soil erosion and landslide particularly in the hills and river-side erosion, land cutting, siltation, flooding and longer period inundations problems resulting reduction in yields. The proven research findings and the responses of the people during the fieldwork confirmed that the rate of precipitation of winter season (especially from November to April) is decreasing which directly impacted the winter and spring crops. The continuous reduction in production has incessantly been creating hunger, vulnerabilities and famine in the poor communities.

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Irrigation is the major input for the better agriculture production. It is estimated that about 80% of all water in Nepal is used for irrigation. But the changes in temperature and precipitation will alter the hydrological cycle. People during the discussion stressed that higher temperatures, increased evapo-transpiration and decreased winter precipitation are the main consequence of repeated droughts. This finding is also supported by the study carried out by CSTNEPAL (1997). The study confirmed that increased variability would severely impact irrigation and the farming livelihoods dependent on it. Changes may result in unpredictable and unreliable runoff, posing potentially serious risk to water supplies in the lean season. This has already caused severe droughts in Iran and Pakistan in areas that depend on water from mountain sources (Subbiah, 2001). Increased variability would severely impact irrigation and the farming livelihoods dependent on it. The land that can be cultivated varies by location and season, since the vast majority of surface water irrigation systems in Nepal depend on the water flowing at its source (USCSP, 1997). 5.1.1 Impacts of climate change on Agriculture The changes in climate impact the agriculture sectors in several forms. The major impacts of climate change in agriculture sector are discussed hereunder. a. Decreasing trends of crop production Several studies in the past have argued that for the better crop production, the role of temperature, humidity, solar radiation and precipitation is important as they all are necessary climatic factors. It is obvious that permanent changes in these factors can lead to failure of some crops and can reduce in yield. Similarly, another study suggested that temperature rises beyond 2°C are, according to the IPCC, likely to result in reduced crop yields in most tropical, sub-tropical, and mid-latitude regions. Apart from these, with increasing temperature, more cases of flooding in low-lying areas will be high, declines in food production, an increase in crop diseases.

Box 8: Weather related extreme events caused reduction in production In our opinion, the reasons for crop failure are longer droughts, high temperature, cold wave, pala and heavy rain for short period. We think these entire phenomenons are due to climate change. We did not experience such events before 23 years. The amount of water during the monsoon is continuously decreasing. The rainfall occurs only for few days but the extent of rain is high as compared to past. Due to this, we are continuously suffering from landslide and soil erosion in the hills and river side cutting, and inundation in the Tarai. We are facing more flood induced disasters for the past decades. The importance of slow but continuous rain is especially necessary for paddy during flowering stage, otherwise the production is not satisfactory. Similarly, heavy wind is harmful at the flowering stage. We have not experienced mild rain since 2043. In these days, the nature of droughts is also different. Past droughts have been short and rainfall used to compensate the effects of droughts but now we have been facing many drought events without rainfall. I think all these actions are responsible to reduce the crop production. -Ms Laxmi Chaudhary, Banganga

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The study found that the major causes of crop failures of winter crops are mainly due to unpredictable longer and frequent droughts and monsoon crops due to heavy rain, landslide, flooding and inundation. As noted earlier, in the hills, majority of the population is directly dependent on a few crops, such as maize, wheat and barley and wheat and paddy in the Tarai region. These crops are very sensitive to climate change

and its impact is reduction in yield. Rise in temperature has a negative effect on maize as well as wheat and mustard. The production of other winter crops such as cereal, pulses, vegetables, fruits etc is also reduced due to changes in the climate particularly due to longer drought and erratic rain. The production of chana is completely extinct

from many parts of the Tarai region including the study area (see table 9).

Monsoon crops are suffering from wind-storm and heavy rain during flowering stage of plant. The wind during flowering stage is considered very harmful especially for paddy crops. Despite of unfavourable climatic conditions, it was found that the production of paddy and maize is increasing whereas the production of others crops is decreasing. The reasons for increasing the production of paddy and maize are due to excess use of chemical fertilizer and pesticides. The changing climatic phenomenon are responsible for decreasing the crops other than paddy and maize. The data of crop production is given in table 9. As crop yields decline and resources become scarcer, women’s workload has been expanded, jeopardizing their opportunities to be engaged outside the home or to attend

Box 9: Agriculture sector is badly affected by changing climate events We are surprised that since 2001, there was new problem of more flowering and less fruiting in the fruits and vegetables. We at first observed this case in lauka (gourd) and mangos. This trend is continuously increasing. Now we could not be able to harvest the pear, mango, guava, litchi fruits, etc, and cucumber, beans vegetables unless we used pesticides to resume the flowers. We are surprised on these changes required. Use of hybrid seeds instead of local is also the demand of time and nature. In our experiences, the unpredictable climate and rapidly changing weather has caused many new diseases in crops and fruits. Khirro, ashuro, simali, ketuki, kharani, nim, etc were used once crops were diseased, and their effectiveness was also very good. We had no idea of English medicines (pesticides) then. Now, unless the use of aausadhi (insecticides and pesticides), there is no chance of harvesting the good crop yield. As the production is drastically decreased, we have reduced interest in the cultivation as well as the sharecropping practices. The weather related phenomenon is also responsible for the erosion of fertile top soil in the hills. More cases of landslides are also observed in the recent years. This is one of the main reasons for increasing trends of seasonal migration. We also experienced that the changes in climatic conditions also reduced the working hours for agriculture and increased the workload of women and children in agriculture. These all phenomenon have impacted our agriculture patterns and behaviors. -Mr. Balaram Gurung, Subarnakhal

Table 9: Production Scenario within 30 yearsCrops Total production

1977 2007 Paddy 10 quintal/bigha 30 quintal/bighaMustard 60 kg/kattha 40 kg/katthaWheat No practice at all 20-25 quintal/bighaMaize 6 quintal/bigha 4 quintal/bighaPulses 6 quintal/bigha 2 quintal/bighaSource: FGDs and KIIs

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school. In times of drought, they will also have to spend more time performing another typical female responsibility — carrying, purifying and supplying the family’s water (Mitchell et al., 2007, Gautam et al., 2007). b. Much flowering and poor fruiting in the fruits and vegetables The visible but surprising phenomenon like much flowering and poor fruiting in the fruits and vegetables was observed by local people in the recent years in the study areas. They have no idea about its root causes but they argued that the changing climatic condition is the main reason. Since then people have been motivated to use pesticides and insecticides in the fruits and vegetables in order to resume the flowers. It is because unless they resume the flowers, there is poor chance of fruiting. Using pesticides and insecticides is unnecessary financial burden. As a result, many people are discouraged to cultivate the crops that are more affected by the weather variability and people have shifted to new occupations. c. Reducing the scope of on-farm activities In the recent years, people have changed their agri-based occupation to off-farm activities/or in seasonal labour work in India. The unpredictable climate and rapidly changing weather have resulted the delay in seedbed preparation. The delay in seed bed means delay in paddy transplantation. And delay in transplantation means reduction in yield. Even investment of handsome money in agriculture inputs, in the recent years, people are unable to get satisfactory return. This is the reason that people are not much interested in the sharecropping and rental land practices that used to be popular in Tarai region of Nepal. The continuous cases of more floods and droughts further worsen the lives and livelihood of people. As a result, people are slowly attracted in off-farm activities hence they are interested to invest in these sectors within and outside the village. d. Explosion of Pest and Insect in crops It was shared that local people have enough knowledge on preparation and application of herbicides when crops suffer from diseases. Khirro, ashuro, simali, ketuki, nim, etc are some of the non-timber forest products (NTFPs) that have been used as herbicides since generations. Their effectiveness used to be more than the pesticides and insecticides in the past. But now after the application of chemical fertilizer, the effectiveness of these NTFPs is greatly reduced. In the recent years, people have to observe many unidentified diseases in crops. Some of the popular diseases includes: whitening of

Box 10: Over use of pesticides affects our human health We are compelled to eat pesticide in our food because we eat off-seasonal vegetables. The production of off-seasonal vegetable is higher because of the use of chemical fertilizer, pesticide and insecticide. The insects and pests are not killed even after the use of Meta acid. The taste of cucumber and cauliflower is gone completely. It is necessarily to seek the alternatives of chemical fertilizer, pesticides otherwise we will die in some years. -Mr Jhavilal Bhandari, Motipur 4, Balapur

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leafs, Patero, Latti, etc. People said that high humidity creates a favourable environment for the growth of fungal and bacterial diseases in the crops. People repeatedly expressed that the explosion of crop diseases is increasing due to excess use of chemical fertilizer, pesticides and insecticides. Poor rain and longer droughts are other reasons as perceived by local people. Due to land fragmentation, people wish to produce more grain from small chunk of land. Hence, they mostly use more fertilizers and other agriculture inputs. This is the main reason for grooming new diseases in the crops. There is poor possibility of cultivating off-seasonal vegetables like cucumber, beans and tomatoes without the application of pesticides. In the other hand, people opined that the production of mustard, potato and pulses are reduced due to excess use of pesticide and insecticide. The production of maize, which is the prominent crop of mid hills, has gone tremendously. Before 30 years the stem of maize used to be too high that people could tab their buffaloes and the yield of the maize was also very impressive. But all these have changed. e. Erosion of fertile top soil The erratic rain in the recent years has resulted more landslide and erosion cases in the hills. Top soil is considered very fertile because people treated this part of soil every year with compost manure. In Subarnakhal and Simalpani VDCs, the top fertile soil was no more available in the recent years due to soil erosion, landslides and floods. About 5-7 cm top soil is reduced as compared to the situation of 1987. Therefore, soil loss is a major cause of decline in agriculture production in the hills and its effects is negative particularly in yield. The germination and growth rate are affected. f. Reduction in working hours for agriculture Due to excess temperature, working hours in summer are decreased as compared to past. Before a decade back, agriculture wage labourer used to work 8 hours from 9 am to 5 pm without break. Now the way of working has changed. The worker in the field gets involved in morning from 8-11 am and 3-5 pm in the afternoon. The period between 11 am to 3 pm is too hot during the summer. People shared that this is the visible evidences of raising temperature. g. Shift to use hybrid seeds Due to reduction of monsoon season/period by 1.5 month, the cultivation of long period of monsoon crops is not feasible in the changed context in the project areas. As the rain starts late and stop early, people are unable to cultivate long variety of paddy like: Sattehri, kanajira, basmati, aanagi, aanadi, kala nimak, loti, etc. As the local varieties of paddy needs much water as irrigation, people are compelled to use hybrid varieties of paddy after 1981. Additionally, people are compelled to change seeds every year because second generation seed wouldn’t work properly. Changing rainfall patterns

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and higher temperatures have forced people to adopt short ripen varieties and to switch to more expensive hybrid crops. Unfortunately, the cost of hybrid seed is quite costly that poor can not afford. After the cultivation of hybrid seeds, people are unable to cultivate local variety because pests in these crops would destroy them. It shows that the changing pattern of climate mostly has affected the poor and excluded communities. h. Increase the workload of women and children With the increasing trend of crop failures and limited on-farm scopes within the village due to weather variation, the male counterparts used to go for seasonal migration outside the village leaving women and children at home alone. The social structure does not allow women to work outside the village. In such a situation women have additional family roles. Apart from running family affairs, they have to look after the livestock and involve in agriculture activities. When the crop fails, they have to take loan from private moneylenders to run their families. These phenomenons push them in vicious circle of poverty. i. Increasing trends of seasonal migration The trend of seasonal migration is common phenomena of the recent years. Its reasons are many. Some of the outstanding reasons as shared during study are: crop failure, decrease in land size, more cases of landslides in the hills, etc. Several water induced disasters like landslide, erosion of productive soil, etc are other reasons. Seasonal migration was reported to be started after 1990. Changing weather events and climatic conditions have continuously emerged new problems and challenges. As a result, there has been propagation of hunger, famine and poverty. Many people from hills have migrated to Tarai permanently after their livelihoods threatened by water induced disasters. With rapid immigration to Tarai, population pressure has increased here, with increasing concerns in the balance of ecology and socio-cultural set-up. The people of Tarai and hill have been migrating in the urban centres within Nepal and cities of India and even in Arabian countries in search of employment. While young men are forced to leave their communities in search of new employment, women, children and elderly are left behind alone to run their household livelihood. To feed their families, women mostly borrow loan from neighbours in high interest rate. When the food runs out, they even sell their livestock like chicken, goats. When their male counterpart returns home with some earning, majority of the earned amount have to be used to payback the loan including the interest. Women during the discussions opined that the production is continuously decreasing while investment in agriculture is increasing. This is also the demand of time. The

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investment in agriculture is often risky due to unpredicted climatic conditions. The growing population pressure results in heavy encroachment along the riverbank (Gautam et al, 2007). Gautam (2007c) found in Banke and Bardiya that family roles and responsibilities undergo considerable change with worsened economic hardship and living conditions. It was also found that during the relocation, people are unable to adopt parma system to ease the situation in the study area. The flood-affected families were reported to be living with relatives, some as welcomed and some as unwanted guests hence creating space in social milieu of kinship. 5.1.2 Adaptation strategies a. Farm off-seasonal and alternative crop varieties In order to escape from continuous crop failure from unusual rain and frequent droughts, people are forced to seek some alternatives. For instance, some people have been trying to reduce the paddy land and introduce vegetables and other crops that are less susceptible with flooding and droughts in additional land. Cauliflower, cabbage, chilli, tomato and cucumber are widely cultivated as alternative options to paddy. In general, off-seasonal vegetable farming and maize are the common practices of cultivation. In some area, people cultivate sunflower, banana in commercial scale and NTFPs as an alternative crops. In addition to these, changes in crops and crop varieties, crop diversification and development of genetically adaptive varieties could be other adaptation strategies. b. Establishment of dairy cooperative The practice of stall feeding is widely adopted in study area when the yields of conventional crops are continuously reduced. The development of dairy is the new initiative in the study area. Now, selling milk is one of the potential occupations. c. Capacity building in new skills People have been motivated to learn new skills and knowledge. It is not only interest but the demand of time. People have developed the skills and initiated the work in commercial approach.

Box 11: New skills and knowledge are neededWe have been practicing our cultivation frame with changing aspects of climate. In the past, we used to plant our crops after the first rains, but since we started experiencing frequent droughts and floods, we are planting our crops much earlier. This is to allow the crops to meet the first rains with the hope that they will mature before the end of the rainy season and to prevent the crops from being washed away by the floods. But these tricks have been ineffective in the recent years. The changing nature of mausam has also forced to adopt off-seasonal and alternative crop varieties in order to get more yield. We are also seeking new alternative opportunities. The establishment of dairy cooperative, gaining new skills, initiating community based micro-credit programs are some of the very important activities. We think, it is too risky to totally rely in crop production. -Ms Mahili Bhat Chhetri, Subarnakhal

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With the training in different off-farm activities, either people are engaged in the cottage industries within the village or going abroad for employment in Arabian countries and India. This is the reason that youth force in the remote village no longer exists in the village. c. Accommodate in the crop growing season Changes in rainfall have resulted in changes in crops grown. For example, maize used to be grown in April, but it is now being grown in November-December. Before 1992, the paddy transplantation work used to begin from 1st August to 15th September but now this work is completed within 15th July because of narrow rainy season. The cultivated season is also narrowing. People are not willing to carry out these practices but the changing climate has forced them to do so. For instance, late cultivation of paddy hampered the cultivation season of wheat and mustard. In the other hand, people used to transplant hybrid paddy quiet earlier otherwise it is affected by insecticide and pests. All these practices are carried out on the basis of experiences. People now opt for short-season hybrid varieties because the growing season is shorter. Rainfall patterns have hindered the growing of long-season local indigenous varieties of crops. The short duration radish and carrot are common in these days. f. Initiate community based micro-credit programs In each village, saving and credit initiatives are grooming in the recent years. These initiatives are especially targeted to escape from expensive interest rate in the village. In initiating small enterprises at local level, and managing agri-inputs (seed, tools, fertilizer, pesticides, etc) on time, people use the credit facilities. Apart from these initiatives, people are also engaged in vegetable farming, bee keeping, goat raising, poultry farming, etc with minimal credit mobilization. These initiatives are supportive to minimize the risks of crop failure and extreme weather shocks. These groups are also managing the institutional support in the group approach from GOs and NGOs sectors. For instance, in Motipur and Kopuwa VDCs of Kapilvastu, these groups are receiving the seed grants for cereal crop demonstration, treadle pump, potato and onion seed in 50% subsidy rate. Apart from these, these groups also received Rs 40,000 from DADO for irrigation, Rs 25,000 from APPSP for seed sprayer medicine, training and cash support for semi incredible groups from GTZ, Minikit distribution from agriculture support centre Kupowa, g. Adopt improved agriculture practices In the upper catchments area, the slash and burn practices are widely adopted. These are also the reasons for landslides and erosion. In the downstream, due to improper

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water management and irrigation facilities, flooding and inundation problems are experienced. These disasters also hamper the good farming system. 5.2. Animal Husbandry Animal husbandry is the second important occupation in the remote village after agriculture. There were no diseases in livestock until 1993. After the use of pesticides and insecticides in crop, grass and straw are also contaminated. These contaminated feed are the source of diseases. The contaminated water is other reason. New diseases in poultry are common. Goats have been suffering from PPR diseases. These new diseases are attributed by local people to the results of changing climate system. 5.2.1 Impact of Climate Change in Animal Husbandry Like agriculture sector, the changes in climatic conditions also hamper the animal husbandry in great extent. Some of the prominent impacts include: a. Reduction in grazing land In the past, there was a general practice of farming more livestock for milk, meat and manure. The number of livestock was often considered on of the indicators of people's well-being and there was plenty of grazing land. Shifting grazing practice was in place fro Siwalik to inner Tarai. But now, willingness to produce more ghee from livestock is strange. The changing climatic pattern has significantly reduced the grazing land along the river bank due to frequent flood and sedimentation along it. The big floods with boulders make the river bank desertified. Now, there is no more grazing area. The forest along the village is also converted in to community forest. In many places, forest land is turned into farming land. For instance, due to the river erosion, seven families from Loharibagiya, Kopuwa were migrated to Madhuban, Motipur because they were unable to raise their livestock. Now

Box 12: Changing climate worsen the animal husbandry practices Animal husbandry has been important source of income of rural people since long. But, the rural economy is getting meager due to reduction in animal husbandry practices. More flood, river banks are silted by sand, stone and boulders has caused reduction in grazing land. As a result, livestock farming is in decreasing order because of the scarcity of grass, forest, grazing land and labor. Not only the scarcity of grazing land, are we also continuously suffering from new diseases in livestock. In our experiences, it is due to use of insecticides and pesticides. We are not received any technical advice. No JTA visited our village to help us. Our goats are suffering from many diseases. We assumed that there is a poisonous grass in the forest. In the past some beneficial NTFP balance those poisonous grass but now there is no NTFP's in the forest. NTFP's are illegally harvested. Once our livestock are suffering from diseases, we started to cut and eat. That’s why we are suffering from many diseases.

During last 10-14 years the extent of disease in livestock is in increasing order but we got nothing from agriculture support centre as our livelihood entirely depends upon agriculture and livestock. So, we need more support from technician. Unfortunately we never see the technician because we are living in remote areas. The occurrence of thick fog in the Tarai area has also forced to close shifting livestock grazing. -Mr. Bali Ram Majhi, Niglihawa

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some families again have come back to the previous settlements as the river has left some land along the riverbank which can be utilized for livestock raising. Due to increasing frequency of natural disaster like landslide and river side pollution, many people have migrated from hills. The population pressure in Tarai also has reduced the grazing land. In the other hand, due to loss of green patches along the river bank, livestock rearing is decreasing. Likewise, due to reduction in grazing land, people are practicing limited livestock farming using stall feeding system. The practice of tending hybrid varieties of livestock is also common. For instance, in Tarai, the cow rearing has reduced and subsequently animal manure has also reduced. b. High mortality of livestock Until 2048-50BS (…AD), the number of poultry and goat each farming household kept was more than at the moment. People are now reluctant to increase commercial farming of these livestock because of unidentified diseases. The common diseases in livestock are vyagute, khoret, mate, padake, charchare, paralysis, stomach swelling, ganghuti, fever, worm, etc. PPR and bird flu are new diseases. People linked that the access uses of pesticides and insecticides in the crops with limited other climatic constraints are root cause of livestock deaths. The condition of high temperature and extreme cold are unfavourable for livestock. These situations often invite the favourable environment for communicable diseases in livestock. People reported that the mortality rate of livestock is especially high after 1991-93. c. Closure of shifting livestock grazing Before 1988, there was a practice of shifting livestock rearing from Siwalik to inner Tarai during winter. That was a popular practice. The period was from November to February in each year. It was believed that inner Tarai is very potential for livestock grazing. In fact, buffalos and cows used to give more milk once they were grazed in nutritious grassland. The Gothala (cow boys) used to collect ghee, sale and procure rice. Sometimes they used to barter rice and turmeric with ghee. The other purpose of the shifting livestock was to involve in buy and sale of livestock. But now this popular practice is closed. Continuous thick fog during winter and changes in climate induced disease, have reduced people’s willingness to take risk. Due to pala and thick fog during winter, many livestock have fallen ill. Now majority of the cow boys are working in Arabian countries.

Box 13: People have shifted to improved varieties of livestock One of the benefits of changing pattern of climate is introduction of improved varieties of livestock in the village. Jursi Gai and Murra Bhainsee (cow and buffaloes) varieties of improved livestock are common. The practices of keeping many unproductive livestocks like cows have been drastically reduced.

We are now trying to resume grazing land by reclaiming the degraded land along the river bank. The introduction of agro-forestry initiatives is another aspect to adopt the new environment. -Mr. Damodar Acharya, Motipur

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5.2.2 Adaptation strategies The following are some of the adaptation practices to minimize the impacts of climate change on animal husbandry. a. Raise improved varieties of livestock With the changing pattern of climate, people prefer to raise improved variety of livestock instead of local. Now the emphasis is given to milk than compost manure. Jursi Gai and Murra Bhainsee varieties of improved livestock are common. More milk giving livestock are popular because selling milk is very easier because of dairy development. With the few numbers of livestock, there is no need of grazing land. Stall feeding practice is largely practiced. There is increasing trend of replacing unproductive livestock with improved varieties of livestock. Similarly, cultivating new varieties of grass and fodder in private land is also popular. The new varieties like NB 21, Napier, Amrisho, epil-epil, fast growing bamboo, etc are common. Similarly, the promotion of private agro-forestry initiatives at local level is also increasing now. b. Reclaim the degraded land along the river bank With the continuous flood, the river banks are like desserts. Now, people have group approach to reclaim the degraded land for fodder promotion, income generation activities through cash crops and community plantation through community forest approach. In many places, people are being involved in group approach for the best use of degraded land. These initiatives have become the source of income for poor people living along the river bank in one hand and fodder supplement for livestock on the other hand. 5.3 Human Health Several studies opined that with global warming, it will lead to serious impacts on human health. These effects will be direct and indirect. Indirect effects will happen because of the close relationship between climatic conditions and insects and rodent populations. This in turn will affect diseases such as asthma, as well as increase the range of vector-borne parasitic diseases like malaria and Japanese Encephalitis, leishmaniasis, etc. Food-borne diseases are likely to increase as a result of warmer temperatures. Water-borne diseases may also increase because of extra demands on diminished water supplies, which will in turn increase the risk of contaminated supplies reaching the public. According to the World Health Organisation, UNEP, and the World Meteorological Program, at least 150,000 people die unnecessarily each year as a direct result of global warming. Warmer and wetter conditions could trigger unprecedented levels of disease outbreaks in both humans and the natural world.

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The same study further found that the direct effects of global warming will include heat stress, with associated cardio-vascular effects, as well as the physical and psychological impact of storms, floods and other extreme weather events. Adoption of the climate-policy scenario was estimated to avoid 700,000 premature deaths each year as a result of reduced particulate pollution with the greatest effect in developing countries. Global warming is expected to expose millions of people to new health risks. The most vulnerable to ill health are those communities living in poverty, those with a high incidence of under nutrition, and those with a high level of exposure to infectious diseases. The current lack of primary healthcare for large portions of the population also contributes to their vulnerability in this sector to future climate change. The impact of global warming is clearly observed in human health in the study area. The areas that were once free of malaria now have become susceptible as local climate has changed and safe drinking water has become harder to get. There has also been a noticeable increase in diseases such as cholera and dysentery associated with changes in rainfall patterns. The proven studies highlighted that the risk of Malaria, Kala-azar, Japanese encephalitis and mosquito are common with climate change scenarios for Nepal. The subtropical and warm temperate regions of Nepal would be particularly vulnerable to Malaria and Kala-azar. Similarly, an increase of temperature would make the subtropical region of Nepal more vulnerable to Japanese encephalitis. Alam and Regmi (2004) found that with warming of higher altitudes, it has been predicted that there may be an increased spread of lower altitude disease vectors such as mosquitoes and consequent spread of malaria, Kala-azar and Japanese encephalitis in such regions. Following table provides information on the predicted impacts of climate change in the human health:

Health concerns Vulnerabilities due to climate change Temperature related morbidity

Clear heat and cold related illness Cardio vascular illness

Vector borne diseases Changed patterns of diseases by region and by climate parameter Malaria, filaria, kala-azar, Japanese encephalitis, and dengue caused by bacteria, virus, and pathogens like mosquitoes and ticks

Health effects of extreme weather

Diarrhoea, Cholera and intoxication caused by biological and chemical contaminants in water.

Box 14: New diseases are the product of chemical fertilizer and insecticides Due to excess use of bikasi mal (chemical fertilizer), angreji aauisadhi (insecticide) and environmental pollution, newly born babies have been increasingly suffering from jaundice, dysentery, and diarrhea and skin disease. We never suffered to this scale in the past. -Ms Shova Chauwan, Niglihawa-6, Jarlaiya

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Damaged public health infrastructure due to cyclones / floods Injuries and illness Social and mental health stress due to disasters and displacement

Health effects due to insecurity in food production

Malnutrition, hunger, particularly in children

Source: Climate Change Impacts on Human Health in India, National Physical Lab, New Delhi 5.3.1 Impact of climate change on Human Health The impact of climate change is directly impacted in the human health. Some of the impacts that experienced by the people in the study area are discussed below. a. Birth of abnormal children Drought and erratic rainfall provoked food crises resulting less nutritious food availability for pregnant women. In other words, malnutrition of pregnant women has resulted disability with weak eye sight and abnormal health condition of newly born babies. Some people opined that with the use of excess pesticide content vegetables and fruits, the pregnant women are particularly affected and the impacts are reflected in abnormal birth of children. b. Explosion of vector borne diseases As noted earlier, the subtropical and warm temperate regions of Nepal are being vulnerable to Malaria, Japanese Encephalitis and Kala-azar. Many vector-borne diseases are known to be sensitive to changes in climatic conditions. The increase of mosquito is observed especially after 1997 in project areas. People still remembered that before 1993, there was no need of mosquito nets in any of their communities. Temperatures between 22 and 32º C are very favorable for Malaria diseases to develop and complete their cycle, while those above 32-34º C could reduce their survival rates substantially. Thus the range of temperatures in Nepal is suitable for the Malaria parasites to exist and develop. Kala-azar (Visceral leishmaniasis) cases have also shown an increasing trend in the last two decades. This trend has become more pronounced in the recent years. As water- and heat-related diseases increase because of climate change, women will bear the extra burden of increased care giving and increased threats to their own health. The World Health Organisation states that, “Changes in climate are likely to lengthen the transmission seasons of important vector-borne diseases, and to alter their geographic range, potentially bringing them to regions that lack population immunity and/or a strong public health infrastructure.” Malaria is one example of a vector-borne disease that is likely to

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increase due to climate change, particularly as a result of increased temperatures and rainfall. Pregnant women are particularly vulnerable because they attract malaria-carrying mosquitoes at twice the rate of non-pregnant women. Moreover, pregnancy reduces a woman’s immunity to malaria, making her more susceptible to infection and increasing her risk of illness, severe anaemia and sometimes eventual death. Maternal malaria increases the risk of spontaneous abortion, premature delivery, stillbirth and low birth weight – a leading cause of child mortality (Mitchell et al., 2007). In this context, it is unsurprising that besides the material losses, women have to cope with the psychosocial impacts of the floods. In the research areas in Nepal, Gautam (2007) observed that people were suffering from anxiety and lack of sleep and generally feeling desperate and helpless. Families often had to relocate, sometimes permanently, to safer grounds during the flood season. This has created a severe impact on social support networks and family ties which help women to cope better. The evidence from this research suggests that this is common across all flood-affected areas. The psychosocial effects of disasters are of course not limited to women, but in their role of care-givers, they have the extra burden of looking after their other family members even when they themselves are in great distress, especially when support groups are not available. It was perceived that high humidity creates a favourable environment for the growth of fungal and bacterial diseases. It was also seen that in hope of better production, women started to use more chemical fertilizer, and engaged in haphazard use of insecticides and pesticides without consultation with relevant technicians. The reduction in compost manure is due to decline in household (HH) labour force in the recent years and its impact was reduction in number of livestock. This is primarily because of nuclear family structures, tendency of seasonal labour abroad and because of minimal grazing area (Gautam et al, 2007). c. Spread of water borne diseases It is well-known fact that flooding and inundation contaminate the water sources in different forms. For instance, when drinking water is mixed with open defecation and sewerage, it will contaminate drinking water sources and people using the polluted water suffer from many water-borne diseases.

Box 15: Explosions of new diseases are as a result of changing mausam

In the past, there was no problem of communicable diseases even though there were no toilets but now each house has its own toilet and the practice of open defecation is also reduced. Yet the extent and magnitude of communicable diseases is more compared to past years. We are surprised on explosion of vector borne diseases and spread of water borne diseases. Many cases of abnormal children birth are experienced in the village in the recent years. In my view, explosions of new diseases are as a result of changing mausam. -Mr Bhoj Raj Pokherel, Simalpani-5, Pawora

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In the study area, people experienced growing water-borne diseases like dysentery, diarrhoea, dengue, fever, common-cold, jaundice, skin disease, eye infections, etc as a result of flooding and inundation as well as longer droughts. As a result, people opine that they are exposed to new health risks. Many water-borne infectious diseases are known to be sensitive to changes in climatic conditions. These diseases also increase because of extra demands on diminished water supplies, which will in turn increase the risk of contaminated supplies reaching the public. During longer droughts, people have reported to suffer from new diseases. People also have experienced that the hair loss and hair whitening cases are also as a result of changing climate. 5.2.2 Adaptation strategies a. Conduct awareness program Local NGOs have been imparting various awareness programs to increase health awareness especially for communicable diseases. These initiatives are useful to reduce the impacts of health hazards resulted from climate change. b. Use of mosquito net and manage clean environment In the study VDCs of Kapilvastu, in each monsoon, people have been suffering from Malaria, Kala-azar and Japanese Encephalitis. People from their own initiative tried to spread DDT to control these diseases. Use of mosquito net, managing clean environment around the houses are some of the other adaptation practices. 5.4 Water Resources Nepal is one of the richest countries in water resources. The monsoon contributes significantly in water regime of the country. As a result, several sources of water in the form of glaciers, snow pack, groundwater, and river networks exist in Nepal. The country has about 6000 rivers and streams including 3 major river basins: Sapta Kosi in the east, Karnali in the west and Sapta Gandaki in the central part the country (Upadhyay, 2000). The annual run-off from the total drained areas is estimated to be 202 billion m3. The contribution from the Nepalese territory accounts to an annual run-off of 170 billion m3. About 4063 sq km is estimated to be covered by surface water, of which 97.3 percent is under the large rivers followed by natural lakes (1.2 %), ponds (1.2 %) and reservoirs (0.3 %) (HMG, 1992). The area under snow and ice is 17,920 km2, which represents about 13 percent of the country's total area (WECS, 1988).

Box 16: Health awareness is only the important adaptation practice

In my opinion, with the growing number of NGOs and CBOs, people have been enriched with health awareness activities with information on symptoms of various communicable diseases and ways to treat those diseases with community efforts. The improvement of health and sanitation at individual, family and community level has helped us to fight against these diseases. But, interestingly, we have been facing new diseases. I don't know why these diseases are spreading but these are the challenges for us. Mr. Keshav Giri, Balapur, Motipur

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Nepal's Tarai belt has rechargeable ground water potential, which occurs in both artesian and non-artesian aquifers (WECS, 2002). The theoretical potential on the basis of average flow is estimated to be 83000 MW electricity (Shrestha, 1968), out of which 44,600 MW has been assessed to be technically feasible, while 42,130 MW (50.6 Percent) could be economically harnessed (Sharma and Adhikari, 1990). The vast water resource potential of Nepal has considerable importance in the economic development of the country. However, Nepalese river basins spread over such diverse and extreme geographical and climatic condition that the potential benefits of water are accompanied by risks. Besides, climate change could add a new dimension to water management: the availability of only 26 km 3 water out of total water (202 km3) in dry season shows that water scarcity is imminent in Nepal unless water resources are properly managed. Anticipated changes in hydrological cycle and the depletion of water resources therefore are some of the top environmental challenges Nepal is going to face due to Climate Change. The water related problems as such are likely to be more severe in Asian countries like Nepal where the monsoon, characterized by high precipitation variability, is the dominating climatic force (Sharma, 1993). Many studies have opined that the changes in temperature and precipitation alter the hydrological cycle and water resources. The total water reserve capacity is 200 billion m3, and runoff provides 72% of water reserve (144 billion m3) while snow provides 12% (24 billion m3). In addition, the mean monthly discharges show that global warming would shift the peak discharge month from August to July, due to the fact that the snow cover on mountaintops would melt earlier. This could lead to increased flooding and more pronounced variations in water availability throughout the year in the downstream. In Nepal, glaciers have been retreating rapidly for the past few decades because of rising temperatures. A UNEP/ICIMOD study in 2001 has identified 3,252 glaciers and 2,323 glacial lakes in Nepal. Among them, 20 lakes are in risk of bursting in five to ten years time with catastrophic results unless urgent actions are taken. Climate change impacts on water resources will affect Nepal through a number of ways, including disasters, irrigation, and domestic water usage. These changes, in turn, could place additional burdens not only the livelihoods of communities in highland regions but equally in the middle mountain and the Tarai.

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5.4.1 Impact of climate change in Water Resources Water is the largest natural resource of Nepal. The country’s water requirements cover drinking water and personal hygiene, religious activities, agriculture, industrial production, hydropower generation, and recreational activities such as swimming and fishing,. There is a growing pressure on water resources due to the growth of the population, expansion of irrigation systems for increasing agricultural production. Like other sectors, the changing patterns of climate in recent decades have hampered the water resources sector severely. Some of the pertinent issues shared by the people during study are presented below. a. Lowering the level of ground water The changes in temperature and precipitation are responsible to alter the hydrological cycle and water resources. Until 1977, the artesian borings were successful even in 110 feet depth but now it needs at least 165 feet to receive good discharge. People felt that the layer of groundwater was drastically lowering. With the lowering of the ground water, its direct impact is in the functionality of hand pumps. About 40% hand pumps are defunct during April-June each year. Only those hand pumps installed by FINNIDA are functional during longer droughts because of their greater depth. Apart from hand pumps, many traditional and religious wells have completely dried up. Ponds have been unable to hold more water due to over siltation. People opined that the reduction in number of day rain, and flood induced disasters and erratic rainfall disturbs natural recharge system. There is poor correlation between discharge and recharge. With erratic rainfall pattern, people have experienced more discharge and less recharge. Its impact is seen in the ground water.

Box 17: Water resources are continuously depleting We are continuously suffering from drinking water during longer droughts because all the hand pumps are dried out. It also hampered artesian borings. Due to continuous droughts, level of ground water is also lowering. Many farmer managed irrigation systems in the hills are becoming defunct. Wetlands are also threatened in the Tarai. In the recent years, because of the longer droughts, people are compelled to broadcast maize in Asadh instead of Chaitra end. Now, we can not predict for the occurrence of droughts. In the past, if there was spider net every where, cloud blowing from west to east, thunder storm towards the south, these symptoms were considered for longer droughts. But these predictions have now failed. Before 30 years, the amount of rainfall was more so that we could produce charuwa paddy. Now because of the changing pattern of climate, all of lakes and ponds are becoming dried up. As the forest is continuously depleting, the amount of rainfall is also decreasing. We have estimated that there is only 40% of rainfall as compared to 30 years ago. In the past, rain occurred for full of four months. -Mr Gunanidhi Bhattrai, Kopuwa

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b. Defunct farmer managed irrigation systems The farmers managed irrigation systems in the Siwalik and even in the Tarai area are effective means for irrigation. Due to low cost and based on the indigenous technology, people have been operating these systems since generation. But now, these systems are perceived to be at risks due to climate change. Now, these systems have been facing frequent floods and longer droughts. The big floods have destroyed the physical set-up whereas the longer droughts have reduced the water discharge in the rivers. As the frequency of droughts is also increasing, more likely threats in the coming days are expected. The upper watershed of each river is also depleted in the recent years hence continuously dried many water sources. The poor recharge is also the reason for dried up water sources. It is estimated that about 30% FMISs in study area are defunct and its rate is continuously increasing. Local people attribute to changing climate and associated causes. c. Threatening of the wetlands In the recent decades, due to climate change, river basins and wetlands are becoming damaged. As a result, they are not able to provide water supply of adequate quality and quantity to maintain vital ecosystems. As noted earlier, more discharge and poor recharge is one of the reasons for drying many wetlands. Its direct impact is in aquatic life including fisheries. The fishery is one of the vital sources of livelihood of many indigenous caste people and this is at risks. Many aquatic animals are now endangered affecting the balanced eco-system. With the depletion of wetland resources, the social attachments of people for recreation, religious activities, livelihood, etc. are at risks. 5.4.2 Adaptation strategies The following are some of the practices that are being adopted by people as part of adaptation strategies for water resources. a. Protection of watershed to retain the water resources Once the watershed resources are depleted by the human activities along with physical factors, regeneration practices are now being performed. This includes: control of open

Box 18: Efforts are initiated to protect water resources As the problems are growing up as a result of water source depletion, we are now involved in the protection of watershed to retain the water resources. The idea of community forest was very successful in this respect. Similarly, many traditional ponds/water bodies are now being rehabilitated to resume the monsoon water so that it could be used in the winter. New initiatives like sprinkle irrigation in the hills and drip irrigation in the Tarai are initiated to increase irrigation efficiency. We think these are the demands of time. -Mr Chhabilal Karki, Subarnakhal-1

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grazing, setting strict rules and regulation, social fencing, provision of kanji house, communityplantation of fast growing species, etc. Protection of water sources in many places is resumed in the recent years. b. Rehabilitation of traditional ponds/water bodies The traditional ponds are being abandoned in many places. Some ponds are filled by sitation, others are either encroached or have dried up. But now with the implication made by the absence of traditional ponds, people are building awareness on the importance of traditional ponds. Now people in many placed have started to harvest monsoon rain that later could be used in feeding and swimming for livestock. In some places of Tarai, pond water is being lifted by pump set for irrigation and used during out break of fire. The physical set up of ponds are upgraded by raising the bank of ponds and plantation along the river bank. c. Promote afforestation and conservation In Nepal, from 1979-1998, a study showed that the forested area decreased by one third. Its implication was also shared in the study area. When the Churia hills and the forest area near the village in Tarai become inhabitant by poor, people have started to protect them by their own initiatives. The protection of forests was supportive to increase water availability in dry season. The people of Kapilbastu shared that it has also reduced landslides and erosion, and enhanced the local biodiversity. d. Alternative measures to increase irrigation efficiency Based on the past experiences, people in the study area have started to initiate dip borings, artesian borings, sprinklers, etc to increase irrigation efficiency. It is said that sprinkle would increase the efficiency by 50% over surface irrigation, although it involves greater capital investments and is not suitable for paddy. Installing drip networks to supply water directly to roots is another measure, but is feasible only for extremely dry conditions due to the high costs. But the increased efficiency can help to expand the irrigated area. 5.5 Forest Resources Studies found that about 350 million of the world’s rural poor and forest-dwelling indigenous peoples depend on forests for their home, livelihoods, and energy supply. Forests contain literally millions of types of flora and fauna, as much as 90 per cent of the world’s land-based species. But industrial logging has resulted in the lands of indigenous peoples being overrun, forests being destroyed, and cultural traditions threatened in a continuous manner.

About 80 percent of the population of Nepal depends on the forests for daily fuel wood supply and 42 percent on the fodder for livestock as these are extracted from the forest (WECS, 1997). Therefore, forest stands as one of the most important natural resources to meet the basic needs of firewood, fodder and timber of the people. The land resource

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map of the country has revealed that cultivated land covers about 20 percent of the total land, forest 29 percent, grassland covers 12 percent, shrub lands 11 percent, and other categories like rocks, snow lands and settlements make up the rest. Of the total forestland, 35 percent is in the hills and one-third in the mountain region (UNEP, 2001). Global Warming may cause forest damage through migration towards the upper region, changes in their composition, extinction of species etc. Observations and experiments demonstrate that an increase of just 10o C in global average temperature would affect the composition and functioning of forests (Trobe, 2002). Forest constitutes Nepal's largest natural resource in terms of coverage. The annual deforestation rate on average is estimated to be 1.7 percent with 2.3 percent in the hills and 1.3 percent in the Tarai (FRIS, 1999). Similarly, the growing stocks of forest have declined from 522 million m3 in mid- 1980s to 387.5 million m3 in 1999. Article 2 of the Kyoto Protocol spelled out that industrialised countries shall “implement and/or further elaborate policies and measures… such as… promotion of sustainable forest management practices, afforestation and reforestation” in helping to limit and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Now, the degradation of the environment through poor land use and deforestation is a serious concern. People have clear ideas about implications of these activities through more floods and droughts but have failed to take more concrete initiatives as there are few alternatives. If there is thick forest, the first flood takes good soil with water which is considered very fertile and the rain is also on time, with reduced droughts. But due to continuous depletion of forest resources, people have to face more water induced disaster events in the recent years. Bhandari (2007) opines that over the past decades people have experienced summer hotter and winter less coldly as compared to previous decades. People perceive that these adversities have become worse due to deforestation around the area in the recent past. 5.5.1 Impact of climate change on Forest Resources Following section deals about the immediate impacts of climate change in forest resources.

a. Forest resources depletion from unidentified diseases The forest resources are continuously depleting. For this, both human and physical environment is responsible. Landless people in many places encroached the forest in one hand and in the absence of political bodies in the village; illegal timber extractors destroy the rich resources of forest. The forest during 2036-046BS (…AD) was heavily cleared.

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In the recent decades, the unidentified diseases and thick fog also hamper the growth of forest resources. For instance, Sisau, Imili, Epil-epil and Kimbu are badly affected by diseases. Many hectors of Sisau forest has now completely dried up. The growth rate of forest resources has declined. The growth rate of sapling is decreasing because of drought and cold. Due to less rains in the recent years, stem of sal trees is found hollow. People said that these are due to longer droughts and high temperatures. b. Depletion of forest resources The changes in vegetation in upper catchments have created the adverse effects in the downstream. Vegetation patterns would be altered by changes in temperature and precipitation, which in turn would affect biodiversity in forests. Due to more temperature and droughts, the cases of more forest fire are recorded. Fires destroy the young plants and dried old tress. The pattern of erratic rain in the recent years invites the water induced disasters like landslides and soil erosion in the hills and flooding, inundation, river bank erosion, river cutting, sedimentation, etc in the flat land Tarai. These different forms of disaster are responsible for the depletion of forest resources in many places. In the study areas, people reported that there are old trees which are ready to harvest but there are no young trees to supplement the forest resources. As a result, more problems will be visualized in the immediate future. c. More pressure on forest products as fuel energy Forests are the largest natural resources in terms of area coverage. A majority of the people in the study area use the products of forests for firewood, fodder, timber, and medicines though NTFPs. Over grazing practices add the pressure on forest resources. Due to water induced disasters, many people in the hills and people living along the river bank in Tarai have became landless. Poor and forest-dwelling indigenous peoples depend on forests for their home, livelihoods, and energy supply. Until recently, in Tarai, bullock cart was considered one of the indicators of well being. The collection of firewood, timber, fodder, etc using bullock cart is also the reason for more pressure on forest.

Box 19: Forest resource are becoming less for growing population In the past, there was plenty of Jymir in the forests but it is a kind of tale story for us. This may be the impact of poor rain and longer droughts. Before 20 years, we used to use NTFP when we were suffering from any diseases but now the effectiveness of NTFP is also decreasing. Now we are compelled to use English medicine when we become sick. Forest resources like Sisau are continuously depleting from unidentified diseases. With the increase in population, more pressure is on forest products as fuel energy. If such trends continue, we will not get any forest resource from the jungle (forest). -Ms Mathura Gautam, Motipur-8, Dhodekol

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d. Extinct of NTFPs In the past, forests were very rich along with varieties of NTFPs. Local treatment system, which was very effective, largely depends upon the NTFPs. Even the cancer diseases are treated through NTFPs. Now the availability of NTFP is decreasing continuously. People in the study area opined that many NTFPs cannot survive in the changing climatic condition. With the increase of temperature and droughts as well as thick fog in the winter, many NTFPs have become extinct. The NTFPs have declined with the depletion of forest resources. Illegal and poor harvesting is another factor for their extinct. 5.5.2 Adaptation strategies a. Alternative energy promotion With the depletion of forest resources in many places, now people have been using burning of cow dung especially in the Tarai. Alternative energy technologies like bio-gas, solar home system (SHS), improved cooking stove, micro-hydro, etc are in wide use. However, the majority of people are at risk as they are too poor to change to a cleaner fuel, or to have access to modern fuels. b. Plantation of fast growing trees including bamboo Promotion of agro-forestry activities in the private land is the recent practice. People have been selecting fast growing tress that are both feasible for fodder and fire wood. Epil-epil, kimbu, bamboo, etc are some of the most popular trees in these days. c. Practice of community forest Converting government owned forest along the village and forest interface is new practice through community managed forest concept. It was possible to conserve, manage and use the forest resource without hampering the natural forest set-up once the forest is under community ownership. The community forest users groups (CFUGs) are increasing. It was possible to promote greenery, increase ownership, construct fire line, build the capacity of CFUGs, control slash and burn practices/khoriya cultivation, etc after handover of the management of forest in the hand of community. Stall feeding, tree and grass fodder production, improvement in the

Box 20: The use of poison and changing climate threaten the biodiversity In the recent years, catch fish is done through poison. There is a rule to penalize the person who is involved in fishing by poison (Rs 2000) but the people from Kapilvastu used to come at night for fishing illegally. Despite of several efforts, we are unable to control illegal fishing by poisoning. Our livestock are compelled to drink poisonous water. So 40-50 goats and chickens die every year from poisonous water. It has impacted on aquatic animals. Due to changing climatic conditions, there is threat to bees and beekeeping business. There were many birds that are no more seen now. About 22-24 varieties of birds including Lalsor, Tikiya, Panihaash are in Jagadishpur wetland but 65% birds have disappeared. -Ms Basundhara Karki, Simalpani-5, Pawora

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livestock breeds and bio-engineering activities are other inputs to conserve the forest landscape. Gautam (2007a) has found that people in the eastern region of Nepal have adequate knowledge, skills and information about the bioengineering techniques like bamboo spur since generation. This is the reason that, for instance in Jhapa, people advocate to grow kass along the river bank and this initiative is very much successful to save the rive bank from erosion. In the study area also, community forest is becoming popular. 5.6 Biodiversity Rich biodiversity and natural beauty are some of the key factors that are helpful to attract tourists. In unprotected public areas, habitats have suffered great threat as a result of loss or alteration, over-extraction, illegal collection of species, poaching or hunting of wild animals, over-grazing, fire, and commercial trade. Nepal is also rich in fascinating biological diversity. Nepal occupies only 0.03 percent of the total surface of the earth (MoPE, 2001) and covers 0.1percent of the world's land area but has high representation of biotic diversity. It claims 9.3 percent of bird, 4.5 percent of mammal, 2 percent of reptiles, 6 percent of butterfly, 1.0 percent of fish and over 2.0 percent of the flowering plant species of the world. This richness of species can be attributed to the immense physical and climatic variation of the land. The immense bio-climatic diversity in Nepal supports more than 35 forest types (Stainton, 1972). They are home to 5833 species of flowering plants, including about 248 species of endemic plant and 700 species of medicinal plants. Nepal's landmass is also home to 185 species of mammals, 847 species of birds, 645 species of butterflies, 170 species of fish and other animals (MoPE, 2001). Forests contain millions of types of flora and fauna. With the depletion of forest resources, these flora and fauna are at risks. Nepal has a striking variety of species, including 60 that are currently endangered. One study has inferred that 2.4% of biodiversity may be lost with climate change (Regmi and Adhikari, 2007). Majorities of the people rely on forest products such as firewood, food, fodder, timber and medicines. Its extensive utilization and increasing demand has led to a decline both in area and quality. Global warming may cause forest damage through mitigation of forests towards the polar region, change in their composition and extinction of species. This could affect not only on Nepal’s biodiversity but the livelihoods of people. Tropical wet forests and warm temperate rain forests would disappear, and cool temperate vegetation would turn to warm temperate vegetation. Vegetation patterns would be different under the incremental scenario (at 2ºC rise of temperature and 20 percent rise of rainfall) than the existing types. Thus, climate change will have a direct impact on vegetation, biodiversity and even wildlife.

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5.6.1 Impact of Climate Change in Biodiversity a. Impact on aquatic animals The water induced disasters as a result of climate change have hampered the water eco-system in the river. Due to over sedimentation and siltation, many deep parts of the rivers in the study area have risen. Deep parts are considered the habitat of aquatic animals including fishes. The siltation also has hampered the natural food like fungi in the river. The shortage of food and reduction in water volume in the river in winter, has kept life of many aquatic animals at risks. According to the local people in Kapilbastu, the practice of killing fish with the application of pesticide/poison is another reason for deteriorating the river eco-system. Its impact is negative health hazards to livestock, birds and human beings. Now, fishes and other aquatic animals are decreasing. b. Threatening of bees The increasing temperature and global warming has posed farmers to use pesticides and chemical fertilizer in the crops to get more yield to compromise other climatic requirements. It is considered that the mortality rate of bees and other beneficial insects is increasing due to excess use of pesticide in mustard and other cereals, pulses and vegetables. A kind of grass which is grooming fast is responsible to reduce the production of mustard. From the study area, it is learnt that the production of honey has now drastically reduced once farmer have starting using pesticides in their crops. Hence, the reduction of bees and other beneficial insects have created negative impacts in the local biodiversity and surroundings. c. Extinct of birds People have clearly stated that the types and number of birds at the moment shall not remain the same if climate change continues. Talchara, birds which used to move in a group basis are no longer seen in the sky. Before 10 years, groups of these birds in several days used to migrate from hills to Tarai. The habitat of the birds is also encroached with the over population. Simal trees are considered very tall tress in Tarai and these trees were considered the habitat for many birds. These Simal trees were also in the farm land. Once they stayed in the Simal trees, many harmful insect and pests are eaten by birds. Hence there was no problem of diseases in the crops. But tall Simal tresses are no longer available in the Tarai. Tropical wet forests and warm temperate rain forests have drastically disappeared, and cool temperate vegetation has turned to warm temperate vegetation. Vegetation patterns would be different under the incremental scenario than the existing types. Thus climate change has created direct impact on birds.

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5.6.1 Adaptations strategies a. Ban to harvest Simal tree Seeing the importance of simal tree especially within the crop land, the GoN banned to cut and harvest it. In the past, the ply and brick factories procured all tall trees. b. Increase awareness on biodiversity and wetland conservation Compared to past, there is an increase awareness on the importance of compost manure and herbicides, bio-pesticides, etc to save beneficial insects like bees. The discussions were underway to increase the yields without fertilizers and pesticides. Similarly many NGOs in the recent years are engaged in increasing the awareness and taking some actions for biodiversity conservation and protection of the value of wetlands.

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Chapter 6 Conclusion and Recommendations

From the above discussions and reflections, different conclusions are made and some recommendations are listed on the changing weather pattern, climate change and their impacts on agriculture, animal husbandry, human health, forest and water resources as well as in biodiversity. 6.1 Conclusion In the recent years, the trends of crop production are in decreasing order except in maize and paddy. More flowering and poor fruiting in the fruits and vegetables is the common phenomenon. In order to promote the knowledge and methods which enhance the resilience of small-farmer agriculture and food production, there is a need of organizing demonstration, training, and extension services aimed at promoting new crops and techniques to farmers. Access to credit for tools, loan, seeds, and transport are equally important sectors to look into. Community based seed bank would be beneficial with the support from district agriculture development office to enable the farmers of quality and appropriate variety of seed. Introducing new flood and drought-resistant crops as an alternative would be important step. More research and innovation on crop diseases are needed to control the pest and insect in crops wisely without hampering the beneficial insects in the environment. Animal husbandry is the second largest means of livelihood of people after agriculture. This sector is suffering from reduction in grazing land, high mortality of livestock and poor technical know-how. There is a need of improving the technical knowledge of farmers on animal husbandry through training, exposure, innovation and development of the agro-vets at local level. Initiatives for improving agro-forestry in private land are required to supplement the fodder and grass. Over use of chemical fertilizer and pesticides in the crops make the grains, fruits and vegetables more contaminated. The use of these foods makes explosion of many diseases and their impacts can be felt in the longer term. Similarly, unavailability of nutritious food and proper sanitation make health situation further vulnerable. The changing climatic events make the explosion of vector and water borne diseases. Hence there is a need of both curative and preventive measures to reduce the effects of new diseases. The improvement in technology and dissemination may be other activities to intervene in. It is because the current pattern of primary healthcare for large portions of the population can not contribute to reduce their health vulnerability. The several evidences and the reflection of local people found that the level of ground water is deepening. Many farmer managed irrigation systems are continuously dysfunctional and wetlands are dried up. Due to this, there will be scarcity of drinking water and irrigation facilities in the future. Water ecosystem is at risk. Hence there is a

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need to conserve upper watershed to resume the water source and control erosion fertile top soil. In order to increase the irrigation efficiency, sprinklers and drip networks should be promoted. These initiatives can help to expand the total irrigated area. In the recent years, forest resources have depleted from unidentified diseases. Depletion of forest resources, flora and fauna and NTFPs are due to increasing pressure on forest resources. It is therefore required to promote afforestation and conservation. Planting protective forests can increase water availability in dry season, reduce landslides and erosion, and enhance biodiversity and finally sustain the natural resource base. Water induced disasters are the by-product of weather variation and changes in climate conditions. Floods, drought, and landslides can completely disrupt existing development efforts and further eroding the resilience of communities including the livelihoods. Heavy rains often trigger devastating landslides and result direct impacts on downstream communities. Hence, there is a need of comprehensive efforts like addressing climate-related hazards in all development endeavours, building the strong social tie-up among the people and orienting the people on community-based disaster management to reduce vulnerability.

Vulnerability to the hazards of climate change depends on technology, wealth, education, information, skills, infrastructure, and management capability, etc. Assessment of vulnerability and addressing of context specific problems is vital for prioritizing adaptation measures. Building capacity of local communities is a key approach to cope with unintended effects of climate change. Awareness and knowledge management is a prerequisite for any effective response aimed at reducing the vulnerability of climate change. Current trend of climate change and its impacts and future projections on the change and impacts should be shared with the school students, teachers, CBO members in wider scale. Nepal has experienced several barriers in implementing policies related to climate change. These include the lack of attention at the national policy level and low people's awareness. The role of District Natural Disaster Relief Committee (DNDRC) is yet to be fully understood. Policy to action needs participation of and cooperation from different stakeholders (government policy makers, implementing agencies, development partners, private sector, and the communities). The related specific recommendations are made in the succeeding paragraphs. 6.2 Recommendation Based on the overall context discussed above, the study recommended the following action that AAN and its PNGOs, NGOs and civil societies, community should carry out in order to reduce the impacts of climate change and promote the community based adaptation practices.

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6.2.1 Community Based on the overall study findings, the following activities should be carried out in upper catchments i.e. the study VDCs of Arghakhanchi

• The communities should be mobilized for the protection of watershed to protect the water resources. The rehabilitation of traditional ponds/water bodies is another steps to recharge the area.

• There is need to promote afforestation and conservation. Plantation of fast growing trees including bamboo and ajambari could be initial step through the promotion of community forestry initiatives. Grazing control is necessary to control soil erosion in the upper catchments.

• Adoption of renewable energy technologies like bio-gas, solar energy, etc is needed to reduce the pressure on forest resources. In the same time, improved cooking stove and bio-briquette should be promoted in large scale.

• The communities should be oriented to form community based disaster preparedness plans and their proper implementation to reduce the risks of disaster.

• There is a need to provide especial skills to divert people from subsistence farming practices to alternative income generation activities.

Similarly, in the downstream VDCs of Kapilvastu, following activities should be initiated to reduce the impact of climate change.

• In the downstream, communities should be encouraged to make safer homes and shelter, management of boats, raised roads and tube wells to reduce the impact of flood.

• The communities should be mobilized to seek alternative irrigation through treadle pumps and artisan boring. The PNGOs could link the farmers groups with relevant government agencies for financial and technical support in these regards.

• The communities should encourage to from self-help groups, initiate saving and credit and cooperative development for the alternative income generation. Skill development training on bicycle/motorbike repairing, rings casting for toilet and other relevant occupation could be other areas to improve their livelihood.

• Plantation of bamboo and other fast growing trees should be initiated on the river banks to reduce the river cutting.

• Group farming should be initiated in the river bank by reclaiming the degraded land along the river bank.

• It is also recommended to initiate off-seasonal and alternative crop varieties to grow more. In the same time, farmers should be encouraged to change the crops pattern from cereal to HYV like vegetables and other cash crops.

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• Seeing the negative impacts of chemical fertilizer and pesticides, farmers should encourage promoting green manure and bio-pesticides, etc through advocacy and campaigning.

• As there are ample opportunities for raising improved varieties of livestock, the promotion of dairy cooperative could be one of the income generation activities for the local people.

6.2.2 PNGOs The PNGOs of AAN including NDRC should carry out the following activities to reduce the impact of climate change.

• The PNGOs including NDRC should prepare suitable strategies and approach for community based adaptation practices to climate change in order build awareness of people in large scale.

• Farmers should be encouraged to adopt alternative varieties like drought and flood resistance crops to grow more and to secure food and livelihood in difficult time with insurance at the time of piloting these actions.

• There is a need to organize sensitization training to school teachers and students, CFUGs, WUAs, S/C groups, mother on climate change for the advocacy and campaigns as well as uniform understanding and rational planning.

• There is a need to initiate integrated watershed management programs in upper catchments.

• There is a need to establish community based early warning system as a part of preparedness through good communication and forecasting.

• A detail PVA exercise should be carried out to make hazards and vulnerability mappings so that these maps could be used for monitoring purpose and to assess the impacts of DRR.

• Knowledge documentation on the impact of climate change, community based adaptation practices are other areas to look on.

• Community's knowledge based and environmental friendly small scale mitigation activities could be other activities for DRR.

6.2.3 AAN The only community level efforts are not sufficient to reduce the impact of climate change. More policy level advocacy works are needed to strengthen the community level initiatives. In this regard, AAN should carry out following activities to sustain the community level initiatives.

• As the climate change adaptation is relatively new areas for PNGOs, there is a need of advance capacity building initiatives. These could be training, exposures and cross visits.

• So far, some organizations have just initiated the climate change activities at local level. There is need to build networks for knowledge sharing and knowledge management so that other can lean more from each others program.

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• Policy advocacy is most important aspect. Debates and discourses on existing policies related to land, water, forest, disaster, energy etc and their implication on climate change is necessary by organizing different meetings and forums.

• There is a need to lead the advocacy for the formulation of policy related to climate change adaptation. So far, Nepal does not have any specific policies on climate change. It is therefore, a need of comprehensive, multilateral response to climate change. The policy on climate change could fill this vacuum.

• AAN need to support in the national adaptation plan of action development.

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WECS. 1997. Water and energy Commission Secretariats, Singh Darbar, Kathmandu, Nepal. WECS. 2002. Water Resources Strategy Nepal, HMG, Water and Energy Commission Secretariat, Singh Darbar, Kathmandu, Nepal. Working with flood prone communities for Climate Change Impact adaptation in Nepal by Dinanath Bhandari. 2007 Working with the Winds of Change. Toward Strategies for Responding to the Risks Associated with Climate Change and other Hazards. Marcus Moench and Ajaya Dixit (Editors). IDRC, DCRI, NOAA and DFID. 2007 World Bank (ADB, AfDB, DFID, OECD and others), 2003: Poverty and Climate Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor Through Adaptation, 43pp. World Bank, 2003. World Development Report 2003: Sustainable Development in a Dynamic World. New York: Oxford University Press World Bank. 2002. World Development Indicators. On CD Rom. World Bank, Washington, DC. World Meteorological Organisation, Co-operative Programme on Water and Climate et al., 2006.

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Annex-1: Climatic Assessment of Study Area Climatic extreme events especially floods and droughts are the concerns of the study. These extreme events in any region are the results of extreme meteorological and hydrological conditions of the region. Changes in extreme weather events and on much other behaviour of living beings and physical environments are the concerns of understanding of climate change. For the study of climate change longer period data is required to obtain more confidence on the result. In Nepal, the services of Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), which is government authorized agency, started to provide information in a systematic manner only from 1966? A very less number of stations lie in the watershed of this study. Three stations were considered in the study to observe the trend pattern in rainfall and one station for temperature. These stations of indexes are 0715(Khanchikot Station of height 1760 m amsl) in Arghakhachi district, 0721 (Patharkot Station of height 200m amsl) and 0716 (Taulihawa Station of height 90m amsl) in Kapilbastu were chosen in the study. Here, the station of index 0716 is climatic station and the stations of indexes 0715 and 0721 are the rainfall stations. In order to make a climatic analysis, data from equal and more than 30 years is required. In this context, the length of records of rainfall data from all these stations is comparatively good than the temperature data of station 0716. It means length of record of temperature from this station is not significant for the analysis; it is only available for 20 years. However, the trend of temperature around the region of the basin was received from different literatures in order to look its variability and trend. The temporal variations of annual rainfall and seasonal rainfall at each selected stations are plotted and looked separately. The mean normal rainfall (monsoon rainfall) has been performed for all those selected stations using office excel . Summer Rainfall Patterns and its Impacts in the Study Area Monsoon rainfall from June to September plays significant role in agriculture and water resources perspectives. Total normal monsoon rainfall (average monsoon rainfall of about 30 years) in study area is about 1630mm per year. Monsoon rainfall trend for station 0721(Patharkot) has almost not changed but trend for station 0715(Khachikot) and for 0716 (Taulihawa) has been extremely decreasing (Figure 1). In the periods 70s and 80s, the rainfall pattern was almost above the normal in the study area. During the periods (1970-1990), however, community felt no scarcity of water for paddy cultivation as they have shared their experiences during the field visit.

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Monsoon Rainfall Pattern in Study Area

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0715 (Kachikot)0721(Patharkot) 0716(Taulihawa)Linear ( 0716(Taulihawa))Linear (0721(Patharkot) )Linear ( 0715 (Kachikot))

Figure 1: Monsoon Rainfall in the Selected Stations On the other hand, frequencies of normal below rainfall were observed more than normal above in upstream and extreme downstream of the watershed in the last 15 years( Figure 1). It clears that the lower region of the study area has been suffered from the adequate water availability. Figure 1 shows that in all three stations, the impacts of droughts varied in the recent years. The impacts are observed in groundwater levels, drinking and irrigation water supply. As a result, reduction of rice production, major crop of summer season, has been observed in the recent years in the watershed. The historical rainfall data supports the community experiences that they felt, the extreme 'flood' in alternate years in the recent decade. It causes loss of paddy production and has been inadequate for sufficient yield of rice. Regarding the monsoon rainfall trend nationwide, the monsoon rainfall trend seem to be increasing in the recent years (DHM, 2007). The reverse trend has been observed in monsoon rainfall at local level in study area. This phenomenon gives a clear picture that an influence of local climate is significant. Winter and Total Rainfall Patterns and its Impacts in the Study Area The winter monsoon, dominated by western disturbances in the country, from November to February, is the main source of winter crops production. The wheat is one of the major crops in the study area during this dry season. Farmers do not

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depend on the river runoff for the irrigation purpose in the dry season, but on rainwater. The winter-rain in the study area is shown in the figure (Figure…). The normal rainfall (average of about 30 years) are 108 mm, 63 mm and 58mm observed for the stations 0715( Kachikot), 0721(Patharkot), and 0716 (Taulihawa) respectively.

Winter Rainfall Pattern in the Study Area

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Rainfall of station 0715(Khanchikot) Rainfall of station 0716(Taulihawa)Rainfall of Station 0721(Patharkot)Linear ( Rainfall of station 0716(Taulihawa))Linear (Rainfall of station 0715(Khanchikot))Linear (Rainfall of Station 0721(Patharkot))

Figure 1: Winter Rainfall in the Selected Stations The winter rainfall is almost seen to decreasing trend. The frequency of below normal rainfall in upstream of the watershed is more in the period between 1990s and 2006 than in the period of 1980s. Similarly, below normal rainfall in downstream of the watershed has been noticed in the recent years. This assessment has clarified that the water resources like groundwater and river-water are becoming limited due to the continued drought in the study area. It is observed during the field visit that only the few farmers especially in the middle region of the study area have been able to supply limited water using surface irrigation in winter season. Due to rapid decline in water sources, drought impacts have been felt by the community especially in downstream of the watershed. The declination of winter season crops especially wheat and other cash crops are the result of the impacts in the study area. In addition, almost all the annual rainfall trend in the watershed seems to be nearly decreasing (Figure 3). The annual rainfall trend for the station Taulihawa and for the Kanchikot are significantly decreasing whereas for the station

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Patharkot it is mildly decreasing. It shows that the downstream of watershed is significantly driest and upstream of the watershed is also becoming dry.

Mean Annual Total Rainfall in Study Area

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Rainfall of station 0721( Patharkot)Rainfall of station 0715( Khanchikot)Rainfall of station 0716( Taulihawa)Linear (Rainfall of station 0716( Taulihawa))Linear (Rainfall of station 0715( Khanchikot))Linear ( Rainfall of station 0721( Patharkot))

Figure 3: Mean Annual Total Rainfall in the Selected Stations Temperature Pattern and its Impacts in the Study Area

The climatic station of 0716(Taulihawa) represents the temperature scenario in the downstream of the watershed. The temperature data for this station during 1989 -2006 was reviewed. As per the data records obtained from the DHM, the maximum temperature for this station has been reviewed. The annual maximum temperature seems to be significantly decreasing for this station (Figure 4). The down stream of the watershed has experienced a short term decreasing trend of temperature from the records of year 1987 to the end of 1990s and it has again been significantly decreasing after 2000.

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Figure 4: Annual Maximum Temperature for the Station Taulihawa

The average annual maximum temperature for Taulihawa station is 31 0C. It is observed that the mean annual temperature in the region is decreasing by 0.040C for the last 30 years (ICIMOD, 2001). It implies that days have been cooled. It supports on the experiences felt by community that the intensity of the coldness has increased in the plain region of the study area. People have now adopted their own practices in germination of the seed. For example, farmers are germinating seed in sac and maintaining its temperature and water manually. People are loosing the mustard production in the recent years and potato production has also been affected. People also have observed the diseases like Charchare Bhyaguto Rog affecting livestock in terai region of the study area. These changes in crop production and diseases may be the results of changes in climate. But, further detail study in analyzing the causes of these changes is required.

Annual Maximum Temperature at station Taulihawae

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