Agricultural Activities In “Climate Change Risk Management in Egypt“ project

Vulnerability and adaptation component: Agriculture

AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES IN

“CLIMATE CHANGE RISK MANAGEMENT IN EGYPT“ PROJECT

Inception workshop, May 5, 2009

Mahmoud MedanyThe Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate

The Agricultural Research CenterMALR

http://www.mahmoudmedany.com

http://www.unep.org/

http://www.unesco.org/en

http://www.ifad.org/

http://www.undp.org/


Presentation OutlineClimate change: projections and risks

Why climate change is such critical issue for agriculture?

Circumstances of the agricultural sector in Egypt.

Climate change impacts over agricultural sector in Egypt.

The vulnerability of the agricultural sector in Egypt to climate change.

Mitigation and adaptation: the critical challenge.

National priorities of agricultural sector adaptation plans.

Agricultural activities in “Climate Change Risk Management in

Egypt” Inception workshop, May 5, 2009http://www.mahmoudmedany.com






Climate Change:

Projections and Risks

Inception workshop, May 5, 2009http://www.mahmoudmedany.com






Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is

now evident from observations of increases in

global average air and ocean temperatures,

widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global

mean sea level.

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

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0.5

1.0

1.5

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The

chan

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Tem

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aveage Trend

Khalil et al, 2008Inception workshop, May 5, 2009







IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is

projected for a range of SRES emission scenarios.

Projected sea-level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with

large populations.

The frequency of heat waves is projected very likely to increases

over most land areas

Area affected by drought is projected likely to increases.

Likely increase of incidence of extreme events.







WRI. 2002. World Resources Institute. Drylands, People, and Ecosystem Goods and Services: A Web-based Geospatial Analysis. Available online at: http://www.wri.org.







Why Climate Change is such

Critical Issue for Agriculture?







Agriculture and Natural Systems

The risks associated with agriculture and climate

change is a result to the strong complicated relationships between agriculture and

climate system, plus the high reliance of agriculture system

on the natural resources.







GHGs Emissions from Agriculture in Egypt

(1990/1991)

% Total Emissions

% CH4 Emissions

% N2O Emissions

Enteric fermentation

Manure management

Agricultural soils

Rice cultivation

Field burning of agricultural residues







Climate Change

&

Agriculture:

I, V & A

Impacts:

• Crop production

• Water demands

• Extreme events.

Vulnerability:

• Agriculture system characteristics

• Water situation

• Socioeconomics

Adaptation







Impacts of climate change are

likely to be the greatest in the

developing world

Limited resources

Degradation of natural resources

Current vulnerability

Low income.

Food crises

Poor access to technologies

Low investments in production

Political conflicts







Circumstances of the

Agricultural Sector in Egypt







AGRICULTURE: NUMBERS & FACTS

17% of GDP.30% of labor force.

20% of the country's exports.

50% of the Egyptian population live in rural areas.

Helps in financing economic and social development.








Total cropped area: 8 million feddan (3.36 Million ha).

Nile river banks and in the Delta [Old Lands]: 80%.

Reclaimed land in desert areas [New Lands]: 20%.

Egypt grows a wide variety of field, vegetable and fruit crops.

Uses > 80% of the total annual water budget.

49

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Irri

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0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Cereals Roots and tubers Pulses

kg/

ha

Egypt World

Comparison between the productivity of major groups of field crops in Egypt and the world (source: FAO, 2007)








Climate Change Impacts over

Agricultural Sector in Egypt







Change in crop yield [%]

Reference Change % Crop

2100s 2050s

Eid and EL-Marsafawy, 2002 -11% Rice

Eid et al., 1997 -19% Maize

Hassanein and Medany, 2007 -20% -14%

Eid and EL-Marsafawy, 2002 -28% Soybeans

Eid et al., 1997 -20% Barley

Eid et al., 1997 +31%** +17%* Cotton

* Temperature increased by 2°C** Temperature increased by 4°C







Change in crop-water requirements [%]

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2025 2050 2100 2025 2050 2100

A1 B1

Cro

p-w

ater

req

uir

emen

ts c

han

ge

[%]

Wheat [W] Broad Bean [W]Maize [S] Maize [N]Tomato [W] Tomato [S]Tomato [N] Potato [W]Potato [S] Potato [N]

Source: Attaher and Medany (2008) Inception workshop, May 5, 2009http://www.mahmoudmedany.com






Source: Attaher and Medany (2008)

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

2025 2050 2100 2025 2050 2100

A1 B1

WU

E c

ha

ng

e [

%]

Wheat [W] Broad Bean [W]Maize [S] Maize [N]Tomato [W] Tomato [S]Tomato [N] Potato [W]Potato [S] Potato [N]

Change in WUE [%]







The Vulnerability of the

Agricultural Sector in Egypt to

Climate Change







Less sensitive to climate variability [irrigated agriculture system]

Sand storms, heat and cold waves.

SLR [12-15% of the existing agricultural land in the Delta could be

lost]







Water resources and water demands

Critical water resources situation vs. low efficiency

irrigation systems & poor irrigation management.

Soil and water resources degradation

Population increase

The size of agriculture-land ownership The role of agriculture in social structure of rural

regions in Egypt. The role of agriculture in Egyptian economy, Knowledge level and gaps.







Mitigation and Adaptation:

The Critical Challenge!







The need for Adaptation plans have a greater importance for agricultural sector than mitigation

Agriculture is Vulnerable to Climate Change







Adaptation plans to climate change become one of the top priorities of sustainable development of agricultural sector in Egypt.

Adaptation of agricultural sector should be integrated, sustainable, economic efficient, continues and long term plans.

The complicated relationships associated within the agriculture sector components, and between the agriculture sector and the other sectors, amplify the difficulties of adaptation planning.







Scientific gaps

Policy perceptions under current conditions and pressures.

Adaptive capacity

Financial support.

Institutional framework

International pressures

Traditional knowledge, local conditions, and imported solutions.

Sustainable development

Barriers and limitations of Adaptation







National Priorities of

Agricultural Sector Adaptation

Plans






Relationships between adaptation and mitigation:

Greenhouse gas emissions

Climate change risks

Human actions

Adaptation

Mitigation



Stress tolerant cultivars, crops and improved crop patternChanging sowing dates.Improved on-farm irrigation management.Improving drainage systems.Integrated and improved crop-management.Financial and insurance systems.Capacity building and public awareness.Institutional framework.New land.

Adaptation priorities







Agricultural Activities in

“Climate Change Risk

Management in Egypt” Project






Stresses tolerant varieties

knowledge dissemination

Crop pattern Scenarios under CC

Adaptation needs and gaps for agriculture

Adaptation of on -farm water management

Adaptation strategies

and practices integrated

into climate-sensitive

development policies, and

plans

Pilot measures implemented and

scaled up in support of adaptation

mainstreaming and policymaking

Climate Change Risk Management

in Egypt

Current pressures

Future risks, opportunities

& uncertainties

Development priorities, agenda & policies

AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES



Stresses tolerant varieties

1. Identifying the pilot locations of the study, representing different agriculture systems in Egypt.

2. Collecting historical data of weather conditions, soil and water resources of the locations of the study.

3. Tolerated varieties and crop selection , which differnt treatments of heat, water and salinity stresses.

4. Conducting two seasons' field studies to evaluate the selected varieties.

5. Analyzing the results of crops field-studies.

6. Field-studies by evaluation by DSSAT simulation. http://www.mahmoudmedany.com

Level of Sensitivity

• Parameters which are sensitive and very sensitive are (heat, water and salinity stresses).

– Soil: parameters which are related to soil water availability

– Crops: Phenology parameters, in particular for active vegetative phase, seed filling phase and leaves growth, size of leaves (LAI)


Crop pattern scenarios under climate change

1. Identifying the current major crop pattern from historical agricultural statistics.

2. Identify the key parameters and forces driving the annual changes in crop pattern.

3. Study the trend of change in cultivated area by using remote sensing techniques.

4. Prepare the data sets of future climate conditions by using GCM and/ or RCM future climate data sets.

5. Prepare the data sets required to crop simulation model.

6. Conduct simulation experiments.

7. Propose and evaluate a number of crop patterns by using numerical and analytical analysis methods. http://www.mahmoudmedany.com

knowledge dissemination to stakeholders regarding to stresses tolerant varieties

1. Identifying the stakeholders groups.

2. Establishment of indicated contacts to stakeholders groups.

3. Establish oriented information packages to different targeted stakeholders groups.

4. Identifying the suitable dissemination channels and means

5. Conducting workshops, training programs and field days.

6. Create a dialogue on what if/so what

Web Site: http://www.clac.edu.egWeather Data:

• Normal• Daily data

• Climate digital maps

• Water requirements

• AGR. Application:• Chilling requirements

• Heat Units• Math. Models

• Climate change


Plan of work - The programme will be executed in two seasons along three years.

- Two years for field testing starts from summer season 2009.

- Third year will be specified for analyzing the field experiments results and final report writing.


- Locations cover the three agro climatic zones of Egypt:

(Delta, Middle Egypt and Upper Egypt)

and two soil types: old and new land.

Three irrigation levels (2 DI = 60 & 80% of ET, and the control)

Winter season.: wheat, faba bean, berseem clover

Summer season: Corn, rice, sunflower, peanut.


Summer Season 2009

Corn:- Three Locations in old land only:

EL-Gemmeiza, Sids, Mallawy

Preliminary 9 entries +1 check = 10

Advanced 11entries + 1 check = 12

Total number of trials 6

+ DI treatments


Rice:

- Four location in old land only EL- Gemmeiza, Sakha, Zarzoura, EL-SerwPreliminary 19 entries + 7 check = 26Advanced 6 entries + 6 check = 12Total number of trials 8


Sunflower:

- Six locations in old and new land

EL-Nubaria, Mallawy, Assuit, Shandaweel, New-Valley

Preliminary 19 entries + 7 check = 26Advanced 6 entries + 6 check = 12Total number of trials 8

+ DI treatments


Peanut:

- Six locations in old and new land

Bahteem, EL-Esmailya, Mallawy, Assuit, Shandaweel, New valley

Preliminary 15 entries + 1 check = 26Advanced 5 entries + 1 check = 12Total number of trials 12

+ DI treatments



Inception workshop, 26th February 2009

Thank You!






Technology

Agricultural Activities In “Climate Change Risk Management in Egypt“ project