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This was presented at teh Basin Focal Project Review meeting in Cali, Colombia from 1-5 Feb, 2008
Citation preview
Basins water use accounting
Mac Kirby Judy Eastham MohammedMac Kirby, Judy Eastham, Mohammed Mainuddin, Mark Thomas, CSIRO
Cali workshop, September 2007
Hydrology modelsHydrology models
•• Water resources Water resources management, flood management, flood forecasting, reservoir forecasting, reservoir (size) design (specialist (size) design (specialist hydrology models)hydrology models) Floods etc
Karkhehy gy )y gy )
•• Integrated catchment Integrated catchment management (eq WEAP)management (eq WEAP)
•• PolicyPolicy -- integrated systemsintegrated systems
Floods, etc
Volta•• Policy Policy -- integrated systems integrated systems analysis (ie above plus analysis (ie above plus poverty, economics) poverty, economics) (water use accounts +(water use accounts +
Discharge
MekongVolta
(water use accounts + (water use accounts + economics)economics)
•• Teaching, understanding Teaching, understanding ( i l b tt )( i l b tt )
LimpopoMDB
(any, simpler better)(any, simpler better)
CAVEATCAVEAT
•• I don’t know much about many of theI don’t know much about many of theI don t know much about many of the I don t know much about many of the basins basins
•• I seek input and adviceI seek input and advice --I seek input and advice I seek input and advice –– Do the results make sense?Do the results make sense?–– How accurate is the land use classification How accurate is the land use classification
(have irrigation areas been correctly defined)?(have irrigation areas been correctly defined)?–– What type of crops / cropping systems?What type of crops / cropping systems?–– Groundwater?Groundwater?
Input dataInput data
•• Rain, Potential ETRain, Potential ET•• River flowsRiver flows•• Land useLand use•• Catchment boundariesCatchment boundaries
Ri t kRi t k•• River networkRiver network•• DEM sometimesDEM sometimes•• Remote sensed data sometimesRemote sensed data sometimesRemote sensed data sometimes Remote sensed data sometimes
(land use derived from)(land use derived from)•• Irrigation water use Irrigation water use -- crop crop
coefficients calendarcoefficients calendarcoefficients, calendar coefficients, calendar •• Rainfed water use, including Rainfed water use, including
natural / forests natural / forests -- crop crop ffi i t l dffi i t l dcoefficients, calendarcoefficients, calendar
Karkheh, western Karkheh, western IranIran -- FlowFlowIran Iran FlowFlow
•• Rainfall ~150 Rainfall ~150 -- 750 750 mm/yrmm/yr
•• Issues include:Issues include:–– Low yieldsLow yields–– Poor catchment Poor catchment
managementmanagement–– Downstream dam Downstream dam
development development –– Terminal marshesTerminal marshes–– Downstream salinityDownstream salinity
Karkheh, western Karkheh, western IranIran -- FlowFlow Observed and calculated flows
500Iran Iran FlowFlow
0
100
200
300
400
Flow
, mcm
Observed flowCalculated flow
Observed and calculated flows
200
300
400
Flow
, mcm
Observed flowCalculated flow
01 49 97 145
Months0
100
1 49 97 145Months
Observed and calculated flows
2000
Observed flow
0
500
1000
1500
Flow
, mcm
Calculated flow Observed and calculated flows
100015002000
25003000
35004000
Flow
, mc
Observed flowCalculated flow
1 49 97 145Months
0500
1000
1 49 97 145
Months
Observed and calculated flows
2000
2500
3000
mc
Observed flowCalculated flow
0
500
1000
1500
1 49 97 145
Months
Flow
, m
Karkheh, dam, Karkheh, dam, developmentdevelopmentdevelopmentdevelopment
•• Karkheh dam 2000Karkheh dam 2000•• Changes flow to and Changes flow to and
use in terminal marshesuse in terminal marshesuse in terminal marshesuse in terminal marshes•• Depends on allocated Depends on allocated
useuseuseuse
Dischargeg
1000
2000
3000
mcm
/mo
Discharge obsdischarge calc
00 50 100 150
Months
Limpopo Limpopo -- land and land and water usewater usewater usewater use
•• Rainfall ~250 Rainfall ~250 -- 1050 mm/yr1050 mm/yr•• Issues include:Issues include:
d f dd f d––Poverty and foodPoverty and food––Low productivity rainfed agricultureLow productivity rainfed agriculture––IrrigationIrrigationIrrigation Irrigation development development --ecosystem ecosystem d d id d idegradation, degradation, loss of loss of biodiversitybiodiversitybiodiversitybiodiversity
Internet data
Limpopo Limpopo -- FlowFlowDischarge
400
600
m/m
o
Discharge obsdischarge calc Discharge
2000
3000
o
Discharge obs
discharge calc
0
200
180 280 380Months
mcm
0
1000
150 250 350Months
mcm
/mo
Discharge1000
o
Discharge obsdischarge calc
Discharge
3000
4000
5000
6000
cm/m
o
Discharge obsdischarge calc
0
500
150 250 350Months
mcm
/mo
0
1000
2000
250 300 350 400Months
mc
Water use VoltaWater use Volta
0.25
Rainfall
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
Eva
pora
tion
or R
ainf
all (
m ETo
0.00Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Volta Volta -- FlowFlowObserved and calculated flows
6000
Observed and calculated flows
2000
2500
Observed flowCalculated flow
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Flow
, mcm
Observed flowCalculated flow
0
500
1000
1500
1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433
Flow
, mc
0
1000
1 49 97 145 193 241
Months
Observed and calculated flowsMonths
Observed and calculated flows
4000
5000
6000
7000
w, m
c
Observed flowCalculated flow
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Flow
, mc
Observed flowCalculated flow
0
1000
2000
3000
1 49 97 145 193 241
Months
Flow
0
1000
2000
1 49 97 145
Months
Observed and calculated flows
20000
25000
30000
35000
ow, m
c
Observed flowCalculated flow
Lake Volta storage volume
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
age,
mc
Lake storage
0
5000
10000
15000
1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529 577Months
Flo
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529 577
Months
Stor
a
Climate changeClimate change Observed and calculated flows
35000
20000
25000
30000
ow, m
c
Observed flowCalculated flow
0
5000
10000
15000Flow
Upper Upper -- historical climatehistorical climate0
1951
1955
1959
1963
1967
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
Months
Observed and calculated flows
Lower Lower -- 10 % reduction in 10 % reduction in rainfallrainfall
20000
25000
30000
35000
mc
Observed flowCalculated flow
Flow reduction is 30 % at Flow reduction is 30 % at outlet of damoutlet of dam
5000
10000
15000
20000Fl
ow, m
0
5000
1951
1955
1959
1963
1967
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
Months
Water use Sao Water use Sao FranciscoFranciscoFranciscoFrancisco
0.25
0.30
m
RainfallETo
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Eva
pora
tion
or R
ainf
all (
m ETo
0.00Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Sao Francisco Sao Francisco -- FlowFlowObserved and calculated flows
10000
12000
14000
Observed flowCalculated flow
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Flow
, mcObserved and calculated flows
800
1000
1200
1400
c
Observed flowCalculated flow
1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529 577
Months
0
200
400
600
800
Flow
, mc
Observed and calculated flows
10000
12000
Observed flowCalculated flow
1 49 97 145 193 241
Months
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Flow
, mc
Observed and calculated flows
14000
Observed and calculated flows
800
1000
1200
c
Observed flowCalculated flow
01 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529 577
Months
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Flow
, mc
Observed flowCalculated flow
0
200
400
600
1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385
Months
Flow
, mc
0
2000
4000
1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529
Months
Water use NigerWater use Niger0 4
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Eva
pora
tion
or R
ainf
all (
m)
RainfallETo
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Eva
pora
tion
or R
ainf
all (
m)
RainfallETo
0 4
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Eva
pora
tion
or R
ainf
all (
m)
RainfallETo
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Eva
pora
tion
or R
ainf
all (
m)
RainfallETo
Water use NileWater use Nile 0.35
Rainfall
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Evap
orat
ion
or R
ainf
al
ETo
30000
35000
40000
45000CalculatedObserved
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Flow
0.30
0.35
al
RainfallETo
01951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Evap
orat
ion
or R
ainf
a
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Evap
orat
ion
or R
ainf
al
RainfallETo
Water use Water use IndusIndusIndusIndus
Water use Water use GangesGangesGangesGanges
Water use Yellow Water use Yellow RiverRiverRiverRiver
Excel spreadsheetsExcel spreadsheets
•• Simple, easy to useSimple, easy to use•• Build on template, cut and paste new catchment dataBuild on template, cut and paste new catchment dataBuild on template, cut and paste new catchment dataBuild on template, cut and paste new catchment data•• Worksheet for each catchment Worksheet for each catchment -- linked for whole basinlinked for whole basin•• Balance checks and parameter optimisation (using Balance checks and parameter optimisation (using
Solver) built inSolver) built inSolver) built inSolver) built inCatchment Pole Dokhtar Balance check Water use Rain total 2827 Discharge 853 Note The gains and the losses do not Gauge point 21-183 inflows outflows dStore error = (I - O - dS) / I mcm Irrigation 461 necessarily equal each other because they Drainage area km^2 6762.41 1. rain - ET - runoff 31100 32724 -1624 0.000 Dryland 234 are calculated from averages, which areRain & ET stations 2. flow 22547 21997 550 2.97492E-16 Grazing 168 sometimes from different periods (due to
Forest etc 1459 gaps in the data). Also, doesn't accountThis worksheet is organised by coloured sections as shown here
totals and fitting calculations annual
averages
constants, totals and fitting
constants, totals and fitting
constants, totals and averages
constants, totals and averages
annual averages
losses (evaporation etc)
53 for storage changes
thl input
Discharge
Irrigation
Forest etc
losses (evaporation
etc)
monthly calculations
input data, mostly from raw data at right
rainfall - runoff model
river flow model
irrigation demand and supply
dryland ET
raw data used to make input data Comment: four columns
Parameters Totals Fitting: adjust the parameters so Parameters Totals Fitting: minimise Irrigation summerSmax 0.5 a3 0 sumobsdisch 19774 <------------ this cell equals c1 0 sum dev 1355702 <------------ this cell
a1 0.59 sumcalcRO 17776 <------------ this cell c2 0 sums (o-e)^2 subject to the parameters All crops 0.0650655a2 0.59 years 1995-2005, not 199 approximately is good enough c3 0.323941332 years 1995-2005, not 1994 max area 440 Max area km2
GW in -0.396 Smax 1395.232842 c5 0.67 Effective rainfall fraction 0.97GW out 0.396 c4 0.7 Closs 1.00 Irrigation efficiency 0.6
annual averages annual averages annual averages annual averages1798 763 1035 0.418 2 0.294 0.218 1472 2050 53 1616 2 331
Rain part 129
Input data - interpreted from raw data on right Rainfall-runoff model River flow model Irrigation demand and supplyinflow + catchment Total water Crop water
g
DrylandGrazing
number of years 11
Discharge obs
inflow from upstream
local inflows obs Rain ETo S Irrig dSmax Infilt ET ROdir dGW dS RObas ROtot ROtot
runoff - diversion Losses
dam evaporation
catchment storage
store net inflows
channel store
channel dStorage
local inflows calc
discharge calc
obs discharge
demand per area
Total water supply Crop factor
demand per area
mcm mcm mcm m m m m m m m m m m m m mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm obs (o-e)^2 m mcm myear month 0.300 0 0.003 0 0
1990 1 109 48 61 0.041 0.027 0.307 0.000 0.200 0.023 0.019 0.018 -0.003 0.007 0.003 0.021 139 173 0 0 173 173 0 0 139 0 109 11800 1.651 0 0 0.0001990 2 185 71 114 0.063 0.043 0.314 0.000 0.193 0.031 0.028 0.032 -0.003 0.006 0.003 0.035 236 301 0 1 417 245 0 0 236 56 185 16619 1.651 0 0 0.0001990 3 292 136 156 0.027 0.100 0.283 0.000 0.186 0.017 0.050 0.010 -0.003 -0.031 0.003 0.013 89 139 0 4 415 4 0 0 89 135 292 24608 1.654 3 0 0.0001990 4 397 167 230 0.069 0.113 0.266 0.000 0.217 0.034 0.054 0.035 -0.003 -0.017 0.003 0.038 254 308 0 4 566 173 0 0 254 134 397 69046 1.648 17 1 0.0761990 5 149 61 88 0.004 0.192 0.203 0.000 0.234 0.003 0.070 0.001 -0.003 -0.063 0.003 0.004 24 68 0 9 349 -115 0 0 24 183 149 1178 1.743 92 1 0.3131990 6 53 28 25 0.000 0.228 0.140 0.000 0.297 0.000 0.066 0.000 -0.003 -0.063 0.003 0.003 20 36 0 8 194 -77 0 0 20 113 53 3663 1.715 70 1 0.3791990 7 43 20 23 0.000 0.238 0.088 0.000 0.360 0.000 0.055 0.000 -0.003 -0.052 0.003 0.003 20 36 0 6 120 -27 0 0 20 63 43 393 1.696 41 1 0.3971990 8 37 14 23 0.000 0.214 0.051 0.000 0.412 0.000 0.040 0.000 -0.003 -0.037 0.003 0.003 20 35 0 4 89 -4 0 0 20 39 37 2 1.645 24 1 0.3571990 9 34 14 19 0.000 0.153 0.029 0.000 0.449 0.000 0.025 0.000 -0.003 -0.022 0.003 0.003 20 36 0 2 81 7 0 0 20 29 34 23 1.615 13 1 0.2561990 10 43 16 27 0.004 0.091 0.020 0.000 0.471 0.004 0.016 0.000 -0.003 -0.009 0.003 0.003 23 39 0 1 92 13 0 0 23 26 43 283 1.611 1 0 0.0001990 11 54 23 32 0.006 0.051 0.018 0.000 0.480 0.005 0.011 0.001 -0.003 -0.002 0.003 0.004 25 47 0 1 108 17 0 0 25 30 54 594 1.603 0 0 0.0001990 12 51 20 32 0.013 0.039 0.021 0.000 0.482 0.011 0.010 0.002 -0.003 0.004 0.003 0.005 35 59 0 1 131 24 0 0 35 35 51 265 1.602 0 0 0.0001991 1 71 29 42 0.114 0.029 0.072 0.000 0.479 0.062 0.014 0.052 -0.003 0.051 0.003 0.055 370 404 0 1 493 362 0 0 370 43 71 811 1.598 0 0 0.0001991 2 82 37 44 0.024 0.040 0.076 0.000 0.428 0.018 0.018 0.006 -0.003 0.003 0.003 0.009 60 114 0 2 445 -45 0 0 60 160 82 6037 1.598 1 0 0.000
Rainfall and runoff
0 05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
rain
, m/m
o
200
400
600
unof
f, flo
w, m
cm/m
o
RainROtotlocal inflows obs
Discharge1000
mo
Discharge obs
discharge calc
1991 3 239 114 125 0.035 0.069 0.078 0.000 0.424 0.025 0.026 0.010 -0.003 0.002 0.003 0.013 90 171 0 3 468 27 0 0 90 144 239 8980 1.596 1 0 0.0001991 4 169 84 85 0.016 0.124 0.061 0.000 0.422 0.013 0.032 0.003 -0.003 -0.017 0.003 0.006 42 95 0 5 358 -56 0 0 42 151 169 305 1.591 48 1 0.1811991 5 51 30 21 0.000 0.169 0.035 0.000 0.439 0.000 0.029 0.000 -0.003 -0.026 0.003 0.003 20 52 0 6 226 -64 0 0 20 116 51 4223 1.498 61 1 0.2821991 6 31 21 10 0.000 0.215 0.017 0.000 0.465 0.000 0.021 0.000 -0.003 -0.018 0.003 0.003 20 34 0 6 130 -40 0 0 20 73 31 1779 1.445 51 1 0.3591991 7 25 18 6 0.000 0.204 0.008 0.000 0.483 0.000 0.012 0.000 -0.003 -0.009 0.003 0.003 20 36 0 4 91 -6 0 0 20 42 25 301 1.367 29 1 0.3411991 8 20 9 11 0.000 0.195 0.005 0.000 0.492 0.000 0.006 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 0.003 0.003 20 35 0 3 73 5 0 0 20 29 20 86 1.360 20 1 0.3241991 9 18 12 6 0.000 0.151 0.004 0.000 0.495 0.000 0.004 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.003 0.003 20 36 0 2 71 12 0 0 20 24 18 35 1.351 12 1 0.2511991 10 29 17 13 0.047 0.077 0.023 0.000 0.496 0.032 0.016 0.015 -0.003 0.020 0.003 0.018 120 136 0 1 183 113 0 0 120 23 29 39 1.326 0 0 0.0001991 11 31 16 15 0.008 0.048 0.022 0.000 0.477 0.007 0.012 0.001 -0.003 -0.002 0.003 0.004 28 49 0 1 171 -10 0 0 28 59 31 812 1.335 1 0 0.000
0.00
0.05
0 50 100 150Months
0
ru
0
500
0 50 100 150Months
mcm
/m
Scenarios Scenarios
•• Climate changeClimate change•• Increasing irrigation efficiencyIncreasing irrigation efficiency•• InterInter--basin transfersbasin transfers•• DamsDams•• Agricultural development (increasing irrigation)Agricultural development (increasing irrigation)
Comparing Basins 2Comparing Basins 2Water useWater useWater useWater use
Floods etc
Karkheh
Floods, etc
M kVolta
Discharge
Mekong
g
MDB
rainfedagriculturegrassland
woodland+ other
Limpopo
woodland + other
irrigatedagriculturenet runoff
Comparing basins 1Comparing basins 1hydrologyhydrologyhydrologyhydrology
1.2supply limit
08
1
ppycapacity limit
Floods, etcKarkheh
0.6
0.8
ET/E
To
MekongGanges
IndusVolta
MekongVolta
Volta0.2
0.4Ganges
Sao FranciscoLimpopo Niger
Nile
Yellow
Discharge
g
MDB
Volta
00 0.5 1 1.5
Karkheh
LimpopoMDBP/ETo
Comparing Basins 2Comparing Basins 2Water useWater use
1
1.2supply limit
capacity limit
Water useWater use
Floods etc
Karkheh
04
0.6
0.8
ET/E
To
MekongGanges
SaoFrancisco
IndusVolta
Yellow Floods, etc
0
0.2
0.4 Sao FranciscoLimpopo Niger
Nile
Yellow
Karkheh
M kVolta
0 0.5 1 1.5P/ETo
Discharge
Mekong
g
MDB
rainfedagriculturegrassland
woodland+ other
Limpopo
woodland + other
irrigatedagriculturenet runoff
Annual Water Stress Annual Water Stress Index in the Indus Index in the Indus basin (Irrigation only)basin (Irrigation only)basin (Irrigation only)basin (Irrigation only)
Annual Water Stress Annual Water Stress Index in the Ganges Index in the Ganges basin (Irrigation only)basin (Irrigation only)basin (Irrigation only)basin (Irrigation only)
Water Stress Index distribution Water Stress Index distribution (Irrigation only) on the Indus & (Irrigation only) on the Indus & Ganges riversGanges riversGanges riversGanges rivers
Indus River
1.0Ganges River
Severe > 0 4
0.6
0.8
dex ΣA
/Q
Severe > 0.4Medium 0.2-0.4Low < 0.2
0.4
0.6
r Stre
ss In
0.2 Wat
er
0.00.00.20.40.60.81.0
Relative distance from estuarySource Estuary
Current Water Stress distribution Current Water Stress distribution on the Indus Riveron the Indus River
CURRENT1.0
r Severe > 0.4
0.6
0.8
e W
ate
ndex
Medium 0.2-0.4Low < 0.2
0.4
mul
ativ
Stre
ss I
IrrigationDomestic
0.0
0.2 Cum SIndustrial
0.00.00.20.40.60.81.0
Relative distance from oceanSource Estuary
Current & future water use Current & future water use trends in response to population trends in response to population growth in the Indus Basingrowth in the Indus Basing o t t e dus asg o t t e dus as
Current 2025
5%2% 4%
12%
93% 84%IrrigationDomesticIndustrialIndustrial
Projected Water Stress Projected Water Stress distribution on the Indus River distribution on the Indus River (2025 population)(2025 population)( 0 5 popu at o )( 0 5 popu at o )
20252025
1.2
1.4
r IrrigationD ti
Severe > 0.4Medium 0 2 0 4
0.8
1.0
ve W
ate
ndex
DomesticIndustrial
Medium 0.2-0.4Low < 0.2
0.4
0.6
0 8
mua
ltiv
Stre
ss I
0 0
0.2
0.4
Cum S
0.00.00.20.40.60.81.0
Relative distance from oceanSource Estuary
Comparing current and Comparing current and projected Water Stress projected Water Stress distribution on the Indus Riverdistribution on the Indus River
1 4
distribution on the Indus Riverdistribution on the Indus River
1 0
1.2
1.4
dex
s)Severe > 0.4
0 6
0.8
1.0
tress
Inte
r useMedium 0.2-0.4
Low < 0.2
0 2
0.4
0.6
Wat
er S
t(a
ll w
a
Current2025
0.0
0.2
0 00 20 40 60 81 0
W2025
0.00.20.40.60.81.0Relative distance from ocean
Source Estuary
Comparing water stress of current Comparing water stress of current and future population (2025) in the and future population (2025) in the Indus BasinIndus Basin
300
200
250
ple
Current2025
150
200
on p
eop
50
100
Milli
o
0Low Medium Severe
Degree of water stress
Water stress indices Water stress indices seasonal effectsseasonal effects Percentage of the population of the Indus Basin seasonal effectsseasonal effects
•• Whole IndusWhole Indus
living under varying degress of water stress: Current population and climate
70%
80%
MediumHighLow
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0%
10%
20%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecPercentage of the population of the Indus Basin living under varying degress of water stress: 2025
population and future climate
60%
70%
80%MediumHighLow
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0%
10%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Other stress indicesOther stress indices
•• Dams Dams -- storage volume as a fraction of annual flowstorage volume as a fraction of annual flow–– Lake Volta ~ 3 x annual flow Lake Volta ~ 3 x annual flow –– Karkheh ~ 1 x annual flowKarkheh ~ 1 x annual flow
Mekong 0 05 x annual flowMekong 0 05 x annual flow–– Mekong ~ 0.05 x annual flowMekong ~ 0.05 x annual flow
•• Drought indices Drought indices -- recurrence recurrence •• Linked to populationLinked to population•• Linked to populationLinked to population
I di t b d ithI di t b d ith th Mth M D liD li•• Indices to be used with care Indices to be used with care -- the Murraythe Murray--Darling Darling would show as very stressed on most indices, but would show as very stressed on most indices, but we don’t propose to send international aid towe don’t propose to send international aid towe don t propose to send international aid to we don t propose to send international aid to relieve povertyrelieve poverty
Conclusions Conclusions --tentative thoughtstentative thoughtstentative thoughtstentative thoughts
•• Want local input on data Want local input on data -- land use, etc.land use, etc.•• Can do water use accounts for many basins Can do water use accounts for many basins -- but but
data availability variesdata availability variesl l b l b ll l b l b l•• Basins vary greatly in water availability, variability, Basins vary greatly in water availability, variability,
managementmanagementB i lik l tl i l bilit t hB i lik l tl i l bilit t h•• Basins likely vary greatly in vulnerability to change Basins likely vary greatly in vulnerability to change
Conclusions 2 Conclusions 2 Basins comparedBasins comparedBasins comparedBasins compared
•• Water use accounts give a foundation for comparing Water use accounts give a foundation for comparing basinsbasinsbasinsbasins
•• CPWF basins show range from dry to wetCPWF basins show range from dry to wet•• R f t t iti d t i tR f t t iti d t i t•• Range of water opportunities and constraintsRange of water opportunities and constraints•• Implications for transportability of results across Implications for transportability of results across
basins of similar hydrology type?basins of similar hydrology type?basins of similar hydrology type? basins of similar hydrology type? •• Foundation for economic analyses, developing other Foundation for economic analyses, developing other
models eg WEAPmodels eg WEAPmodels eg WEAPmodels eg WEAP
•• Role for analogous studies on food and poverty?Role for analogous studies on food and poverty?•• Role for analogous studies on food and poverty?Role for analogous studies on food and poverty?