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Basins water use accounting Mac Kirby Judy Eastham Mohammed Mac Kirby , Judy Eastham, Mohammed Mainuddin, Mark Thomas, CSIRO Cali workshop, September 2007

Basin Water Use Accounts

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This was presented at teh Basin Focal Project Review meeting in Cali, Colombia from 1-5 Feb, 2008

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Page 1: Basin Water Use Accounts

Basins water use accounting

Mac Kirby Judy Eastham MohammedMac Kirby, Judy Eastham, Mohammed Mainuddin, Mark Thomas, CSIRO

Cali workshop, September 2007

Page 2: Basin Water Use Accounts

Hydrology modelsHydrology models

•• Water resources Water resources management, flood management, flood forecasting, reservoir forecasting, reservoir (size) design (specialist (size) design (specialist hydrology models)hydrology models) Floods etc

Karkhehy gy )y gy )

•• Integrated catchment Integrated catchment management (eq WEAP)management (eq WEAP)

•• PolicyPolicy -- integrated systemsintegrated systems

Floods, etc

Volta•• Policy Policy -- integrated systems integrated systems analysis (ie above plus analysis (ie above plus poverty, economics) poverty, economics) (water use accounts +(water use accounts +

Discharge

MekongVolta

(water use accounts + (water use accounts + economics)economics)

•• Teaching, understanding Teaching, understanding ( i l b tt )( i l b tt )

LimpopoMDB

(any, simpler better)(any, simpler better)

Page 3: Basin Water Use Accounts

CAVEATCAVEAT

•• I don’t know much about many of theI don’t know much about many of theI don t know much about many of the I don t know much about many of the basins basins

•• I seek input and adviceI seek input and advice --I seek input and advice I seek input and advice –– Do the results make sense?Do the results make sense?–– How accurate is the land use classification How accurate is the land use classification

(have irrigation areas been correctly defined)?(have irrigation areas been correctly defined)?–– What type of crops / cropping systems?What type of crops / cropping systems?–– Groundwater?Groundwater?

Page 4: Basin Water Use Accounts

Input dataInput data

•• Rain, Potential ETRain, Potential ET•• River flowsRiver flows•• Land useLand use•• Catchment boundariesCatchment boundaries

Ri t kRi t k•• River networkRiver network•• DEM sometimesDEM sometimes•• Remote sensed data sometimesRemote sensed data sometimesRemote sensed data sometimes Remote sensed data sometimes

(land use derived from)(land use derived from)•• Irrigation water use Irrigation water use -- crop crop

coefficients calendarcoefficients calendarcoefficients, calendar coefficients, calendar •• Rainfed water use, including Rainfed water use, including

natural / forests natural / forests -- crop crop ffi i t l dffi i t l dcoefficients, calendarcoefficients, calendar

Page 5: Basin Water Use Accounts

Karkheh, western Karkheh, western IranIran -- FlowFlowIran Iran FlowFlow

•• Rainfall ~150 Rainfall ~150 -- 750 750 mm/yrmm/yr

•• Issues include:Issues include:–– Low yieldsLow yields–– Poor catchment Poor catchment

managementmanagement–– Downstream dam Downstream dam

development development –– Terminal marshesTerminal marshes–– Downstream salinityDownstream salinity

Page 6: Basin Water Use Accounts

Karkheh, western Karkheh, western IranIran -- FlowFlow Observed and calculated flows

500Iran Iran FlowFlow

0

100

200

300

400

Flow

, mcm

Observed flowCalculated flow

Observed and calculated flows

200

300

400

Flow

, mcm

Observed flowCalculated flow

01 49 97 145

Months0

100

1 49 97 145Months

Observed and calculated flows

2000

Observed flow

0

500

1000

1500

Flow

, mcm

Calculated flow Observed and calculated flows

100015002000

25003000

35004000

Flow

, mc

Observed flowCalculated flow

1 49 97 145Months

0500

1000

1 49 97 145

Months

Observed and calculated flows

2000

2500

3000

mc

Observed flowCalculated flow

0

500

1000

1500

1 49 97 145

Months

Flow

, m

Page 7: Basin Water Use Accounts

Karkheh, dam, Karkheh, dam, developmentdevelopmentdevelopmentdevelopment

•• Karkheh dam 2000Karkheh dam 2000•• Changes flow to and Changes flow to and

use in terminal marshesuse in terminal marshesuse in terminal marshesuse in terminal marshes•• Depends on allocated Depends on allocated

useuseuseuse

Dischargeg

1000

2000

3000

mcm

/mo

Discharge obsdischarge calc

00 50 100 150

Months

Page 8: Basin Water Use Accounts

Limpopo Limpopo -- land and land and water usewater usewater usewater use

•• Rainfall ~250 Rainfall ~250 -- 1050 mm/yr1050 mm/yr•• Issues include:Issues include:

d f dd f d––Poverty and foodPoverty and food––Low productivity rainfed agricultureLow productivity rainfed agriculture––IrrigationIrrigationIrrigation Irrigation development development --ecosystem ecosystem d d id d idegradation, degradation, loss of loss of biodiversitybiodiversitybiodiversitybiodiversity

Internet data

Page 9: Basin Water Use Accounts

Limpopo Limpopo -- FlowFlowDischarge

400

600

m/m

o

Discharge obsdischarge calc Discharge

2000

3000

o

Discharge obs

discharge calc

0

200

180 280 380Months

mcm

0

1000

150 250 350Months

mcm

/mo

Discharge1000

o

Discharge obsdischarge calc

Discharge

3000

4000

5000

6000

cm/m

o

Discharge obsdischarge calc

0

500

150 250 350Months

mcm

/mo

0

1000

2000

250 300 350 400Months

mc

Page 10: Basin Water Use Accounts

Water use VoltaWater use Volta

0.25

Rainfall

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

Eva

pora

tion

or R

ainf

all (

m ETo

0.00Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Page 11: Basin Water Use Accounts

Volta Volta -- FlowFlowObserved and calculated flows

6000

Observed and calculated flows

2000

2500

Observed flowCalculated flow

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Flow

, mcm

Observed flowCalculated flow

0

500

1000

1500

1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433

Flow

, mc

0

1000

1 49 97 145 193 241

Months

Observed and calculated flowsMonths

Observed and calculated flows

4000

5000

6000

7000

w, m

c

Observed flowCalculated flow

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Flow

, mc

Observed flowCalculated flow

0

1000

2000

3000

1 49 97 145 193 241

Months

Flow

0

1000

2000

1 49 97 145

Months

Observed and calculated flows

20000

25000

30000

35000

ow, m

c

Observed flowCalculated flow

Lake Volta storage volume

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

age,

mc

Lake storage

0

5000

10000

15000

1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529 577Months

Flo

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529 577

Months

Stor

a

Page 12: Basin Water Use Accounts

Climate changeClimate change Observed and calculated flows

35000

20000

25000

30000

ow, m

c

Observed flowCalculated flow

0

5000

10000

15000Flow

Upper Upper -- historical climatehistorical climate0

1951

1955

1959

1963

1967

1971

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

Months

Observed and calculated flows

Lower Lower -- 10 % reduction in 10 % reduction in rainfallrainfall

20000

25000

30000

35000

mc

Observed flowCalculated flow

Flow reduction is 30 % at Flow reduction is 30 % at outlet of damoutlet of dam

5000

10000

15000

20000Fl

ow, m

0

5000

1951

1955

1959

1963

1967

1971

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

Months

Page 13: Basin Water Use Accounts

Water use Sao Water use Sao FranciscoFranciscoFranciscoFrancisco

0.25

0.30

m

RainfallETo

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

Eva

pora

tion

or R

ainf

all (

m ETo

0.00Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Page 14: Basin Water Use Accounts

Sao Francisco Sao Francisco -- FlowFlowObserved and calculated flows

10000

12000

14000

Observed flowCalculated flow

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

Flow

, mcObserved and calculated flows

800

1000

1200

1400

c

Observed flowCalculated flow

1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529 577

Months

0

200

400

600

800

Flow

, mc

Observed and calculated flows

10000

12000

Observed flowCalculated flow

1 49 97 145 193 241

Months

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

Flow

, mc

Observed and calculated flows

14000

Observed and calculated flows

800

1000

1200

c

Observed flowCalculated flow

01 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529 577

Months

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Flow

, mc

Observed flowCalculated flow

0

200

400

600

1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385

Months

Flow

, mc

0

2000

4000

1 49 97 145 193 241 289 337 385 433 481 529

Months

Page 15: Basin Water Use Accounts

Water use NigerWater use Niger0 4

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Eva

pora

tion

or R

ainf

all (

m)

RainfallETo

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Eva

pora

tion

or R

ainf

all (

m)

RainfallETo

0 4

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Eva

pora

tion

or R

ainf

all (

m)

RainfallETo

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Eva

pora

tion

or R

ainf

all (

m)

RainfallETo

Page 16: Basin Water Use Accounts

Water use NileWater use Nile 0.35

Rainfall

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Evap

orat

ion

or R

ainf

al

ETo

30000

35000

40000

45000CalculatedObserved

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Flow

0.30

0.35

al

RainfallETo

01951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Evap

orat

ion

or R

ainf

a

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Evap

orat

ion

or R

ainf

al

RainfallETo

Page 17: Basin Water Use Accounts

Water use Water use IndusIndusIndusIndus

Page 18: Basin Water Use Accounts

Water use Water use GangesGangesGangesGanges

Page 19: Basin Water Use Accounts

Water use Yellow Water use Yellow RiverRiverRiverRiver

Page 20: Basin Water Use Accounts

Excel spreadsheetsExcel spreadsheets

•• Simple, easy to useSimple, easy to use•• Build on template, cut and paste new catchment dataBuild on template, cut and paste new catchment dataBuild on template, cut and paste new catchment dataBuild on template, cut and paste new catchment data•• Worksheet for each catchment Worksheet for each catchment -- linked for whole basinlinked for whole basin•• Balance checks and parameter optimisation (using Balance checks and parameter optimisation (using

Solver) built inSolver) built inSolver) built inSolver) built inCatchment Pole Dokhtar Balance check Water use Rain total 2827 Discharge 853 Note The gains and the losses do not Gauge point 21-183 inflows outflows dStore error = (I - O - dS) / I mcm Irrigation 461 necessarily equal each other because they Drainage area km^2 6762.41 1. rain - ET - runoff 31100 32724 -1624 0.000 Dryland 234 are calculated from averages, which areRain & ET stations 2. flow 22547 21997 550 2.97492E-16 Grazing 168 sometimes from different periods (due to

Forest etc 1459 gaps in the data). Also, doesn't accountThis worksheet is organised by coloured sections as shown here

totals and fitting calculations annual

averages

constants, totals and fitting

constants, totals and fitting

constants, totals and averages

constants, totals and averages

annual averages

losses (evaporation etc)

53 for storage changes

thl input

Discharge

Irrigation

Forest etc

losses (evaporation

etc)

monthly calculations

input data, mostly from raw data at right

rainfall - runoff model

river flow model

irrigation demand and supply

dryland ET

raw data used to make input data Comment: four columns

Parameters Totals Fitting: adjust the parameters so Parameters Totals Fitting: minimise Irrigation summerSmax 0.5 a3 0 sumobsdisch 19774 <------------ this cell equals c1 0 sum dev 1355702 <------------ this cell

a1 0.59 sumcalcRO 17776 <------------ this cell c2 0 sums (o-e)^2 subject to the parameters All crops 0.0650655a2 0.59 years 1995-2005, not 199 approximately is good enough c3 0.323941332 years 1995-2005, not 1994 max area 440 Max area km2

GW in -0.396 Smax 1395.232842 c5 0.67 Effective rainfall fraction 0.97GW out 0.396 c4 0.7 Closs 1.00 Irrigation efficiency 0.6

annual averages annual averages annual averages annual averages1798 763 1035 0.418 2 0.294 0.218 1472 2050 53 1616 2 331

Rain part 129

Input data - interpreted from raw data on right Rainfall-runoff model River flow model Irrigation demand and supplyinflow + catchment Total water Crop water

g

DrylandGrazing

number of years 11

Discharge obs

inflow from upstream

local inflows obs Rain ETo S Irrig dSmax Infilt ET ROdir dGW dS RObas ROtot ROtot

runoff - diversion Losses

dam evaporation

catchment storage

store net inflows

channel store

channel dStorage

local inflows calc

discharge calc

obs discharge

demand per area

Total water supply Crop factor

demand per area

mcm mcm mcm m m m m m m m m m m m m mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm mcm obs (o-e)^2 m mcm myear month 0.300 0 0.003 0 0

1990 1 109 48 61 0.041 0.027 0.307 0.000 0.200 0.023 0.019 0.018 -0.003 0.007 0.003 0.021 139 173 0 0 173 173 0 0 139 0 109 11800 1.651 0 0 0.0001990 2 185 71 114 0.063 0.043 0.314 0.000 0.193 0.031 0.028 0.032 -0.003 0.006 0.003 0.035 236 301 0 1 417 245 0 0 236 56 185 16619 1.651 0 0 0.0001990 3 292 136 156 0.027 0.100 0.283 0.000 0.186 0.017 0.050 0.010 -0.003 -0.031 0.003 0.013 89 139 0 4 415 4 0 0 89 135 292 24608 1.654 3 0 0.0001990 4 397 167 230 0.069 0.113 0.266 0.000 0.217 0.034 0.054 0.035 -0.003 -0.017 0.003 0.038 254 308 0 4 566 173 0 0 254 134 397 69046 1.648 17 1 0.0761990 5 149 61 88 0.004 0.192 0.203 0.000 0.234 0.003 0.070 0.001 -0.003 -0.063 0.003 0.004 24 68 0 9 349 -115 0 0 24 183 149 1178 1.743 92 1 0.3131990 6 53 28 25 0.000 0.228 0.140 0.000 0.297 0.000 0.066 0.000 -0.003 -0.063 0.003 0.003 20 36 0 8 194 -77 0 0 20 113 53 3663 1.715 70 1 0.3791990 7 43 20 23 0.000 0.238 0.088 0.000 0.360 0.000 0.055 0.000 -0.003 -0.052 0.003 0.003 20 36 0 6 120 -27 0 0 20 63 43 393 1.696 41 1 0.3971990 8 37 14 23 0.000 0.214 0.051 0.000 0.412 0.000 0.040 0.000 -0.003 -0.037 0.003 0.003 20 35 0 4 89 -4 0 0 20 39 37 2 1.645 24 1 0.3571990 9 34 14 19 0.000 0.153 0.029 0.000 0.449 0.000 0.025 0.000 -0.003 -0.022 0.003 0.003 20 36 0 2 81 7 0 0 20 29 34 23 1.615 13 1 0.2561990 10 43 16 27 0.004 0.091 0.020 0.000 0.471 0.004 0.016 0.000 -0.003 -0.009 0.003 0.003 23 39 0 1 92 13 0 0 23 26 43 283 1.611 1 0 0.0001990 11 54 23 32 0.006 0.051 0.018 0.000 0.480 0.005 0.011 0.001 -0.003 -0.002 0.003 0.004 25 47 0 1 108 17 0 0 25 30 54 594 1.603 0 0 0.0001990 12 51 20 32 0.013 0.039 0.021 0.000 0.482 0.011 0.010 0.002 -0.003 0.004 0.003 0.005 35 59 0 1 131 24 0 0 35 35 51 265 1.602 0 0 0.0001991 1 71 29 42 0.114 0.029 0.072 0.000 0.479 0.062 0.014 0.052 -0.003 0.051 0.003 0.055 370 404 0 1 493 362 0 0 370 43 71 811 1.598 0 0 0.0001991 2 82 37 44 0.024 0.040 0.076 0.000 0.428 0.018 0.018 0.006 -0.003 0.003 0.003 0.009 60 114 0 2 445 -45 0 0 60 160 82 6037 1.598 1 0 0.000

Rainfall and runoff

0 05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

rain

, m/m

o

200

400

600

unof

f, flo

w, m

cm/m

o

RainROtotlocal inflows obs

Discharge1000

mo

Discharge obs

discharge calc

1991 3 239 114 125 0.035 0.069 0.078 0.000 0.424 0.025 0.026 0.010 -0.003 0.002 0.003 0.013 90 171 0 3 468 27 0 0 90 144 239 8980 1.596 1 0 0.0001991 4 169 84 85 0.016 0.124 0.061 0.000 0.422 0.013 0.032 0.003 -0.003 -0.017 0.003 0.006 42 95 0 5 358 -56 0 0 42 151 169 305 1.591 48 1 0.1811991 5 51 30 21 0.000 0.169 0.035 0.000 0.439 0.000 0.029 0.000 -0.003 -0.026 0.003 0.003 20 52 0 6 226 -64 0 0 20 116 51 4223 1.498 61 1 0.2821991 6 31 21 10 0.000 0.215 0.017 0.000 0.465 0.000 0.021 0.000 -0.003 -0.018 0.003 0.003 20 34 0 6 130 -40 0 0 20 73 31 1779 1.445 51 1 0.3591991 7 25 18 6 0.000 0.204 0.008 0.000 0.483 0.000 0.012 0.000 -0.003 -0.009 0.003 0.003 20 36 0 4 91 -6 0 0 20 42 25 301 1.367 29 1 0.3411991 8 20 9 11 0.000 0.195 0.005 0.000 0.492 0.000 0.006 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 0.003 0.003 20 35 0 3 73 5 0 0 20 29 20 86 1.360 20 1 0.3241991 9 18 12 6 0.000 0.151 0.004 0.000 0.495 0.000 0.004 0.000 -0.003 -0.001 0.003 0.003 20 36 0 2 71 12 0 0 20 24 18 35 1.351 12 1 0.2511991 10 29 17 13 0.047 0.077 0.023 0.000 0.496 0.032 0.016 0.015 -0.003 0.020 0.003 0.018 120 136 0 1 183 113 0 0 120 23 29 39 1.326 0 0 0.0001991 11 31 16 15 0.008 0.048 0.022 0.000 0.477 0.007 0.012 0.001 -0.003 -0.002 0.003 0.004 28 49 0 1 171 -10 0 0 28 59 31 812 1.335 1 0 0.000

0.00

0.05

0 50 100 150Months

0

ru

0

500

0 50 100 150Months

mcm

/m

Page 21: Basin Water Use Accounts

Scenarios Scenarios

•• Climate changeClimate change•• Increasing irrigation efficiencyIncreasing irrigation efficiency•• InterInter--basin transfersbasin transfers•• DamsDams•• Agricultural development (increasing irrigation)Agricultural development (increasing irrigation)

Page 22: Basin Water Use Accounts

Comparing Basins 2Comparing Basins 2Water useWater useWater useWater use

Floods etc

Karkheh

Floods, etc

M kVolta

Discharge

Mekong

g

MDB

rainfedagriculturegrassland

woodland+ other

Limpopo

woodland + other

irrigatedagriculturenet runoff

Page 23: Basin Water Use Accounts

Comparing basins 1Comparing basins 1hydrologyhydrologyhydrologyhydrology

1.2supply limit

08

1

ppycapacity limit

Floods, etcKarkheh

0.6

0.8

ET/E

To

MekongGanges

IndusVolta

MekongVolta

Volta0.2

0.4Ganges

Sao FranciscoLimpopo Niger

Nile

Yellow

Discharge

g

MDB

Volta

00 0.5 1 1.5

Karkheh

LimpopoMDBP/ETo

Page 24: Basin Water Use Accounts

Comparing Basins 2Comparing Basins 2Water useWater use

1

1.2supply limit

capacity limit

Water useWater use

Floods etc

Karkheh

04

0.6

0.8

ET/E

To

MekongGanges

SaoFrancisco

IndusVolta

Yellow Floods, etc

0

0.2

0.4 Sao FranciscoLimpopo Niger

Nile

Yellow

Karkheh

M kVolta

0 0.5 1 1.5P/ETo

Discharge

Mekong

g

MDB

rainfedagriculturegrassland

woodland+ other

Limpopo

woodland + other

irrigatedagriculturenet runoff

Page 25: Basin Water Use Accounts

Annual Water Stress Annual Water Stress Index in the Indus Index in the Indus basin (Irrigation only)basin (Irrigation only)basin (Irrigation only)basin (Irrigation only)

Page 26: Basin Water Use Accounts

Annual Water Stress Annual Water Stress Index in the Ganges Index in the Ganges basin (Irrigation only)basin (Irrigation only)basin (Irrigation only)basin (Irrigation only)

Page 27: Basin Water Use Accounts

Water Stress Index distribution Water Stress Index distribution (Irrigation only) on the Indus & (Irrigation only) on the Indus & Ganges riversGanges riversGanges riversGanges rivers

Indus River

1.0Ganges River

Severe > 0 4

0.6

0.8

dex ΣA

/Q

Severe > 0.4Medium 0.2-0.4Low < 0.2

0.4

0.6

r Stre

ss In

0.2 Wat

er

0.00.00.20.40.60.81.0

Relative distance from estuarySource Estuary

Page 28: Basin Water Use Accounts

Current Water Stress distribution Current Water Stress distribution on the Indus Riveron the Indus River

CURRENT1.0

r Severe > 0.4

0.6

0.8

e W

ate

ndex

Medium 0.2-0.4Low < 0.2

0.4

mul

ativ

Stre

ss I

IrrigationDomestic

0.0

0.2 Cum SIndustrial

0.00.00.20.40.60.81.0

Relative distance from oceanSource Estuary

Page 29: Basin Water Use Accounts

Current & future water use Current & future water use trends in response to population trends in response to population growth in the Indus Basingrowth in the Indus Basing o t t e dus asg o t t e dus as

Current 2025

5%2% 4%

12%

93% 84%IrrigationDomesticIndustrialIndustrial

Page 30: Basin Water Use Accounts

Projected Water Stress Projected Water Stress distribution on the Indus River distribution on the Indus River (2025 population)(2025 population)( 0 5 popu at o )( 0 5 popu at o )

20252025

1.2

1.4

r IrrigationD ti

Severe > 0.4Medium 0 2 0 4

0.8

1.0

ve W

ate

ndex

DomesticIndustrial

Medium 0.2-0.4Low < 0.2

0.4

0.6

0 8

mua

ltiv

Stre

ss I

0 0

0.2

0.4

Cum S

0.00.00.20.40.60.81.0

Relative distance from oceanSource Estuary

Page 31: Basin Water Use Accounts

Comparing current and Comparing current and projected Water Stress projected Water Stress distribution on the Indus Riverdistribution on the Indus River

1 4

distribution on the Indus Riverdistribution on the Indus River

1 0

1.2

1.4

dex

s)Severe > 0.4

0 6

0.8

1.0

tress

Inte

r useMedium 0.2-0.4

Low < 0.2

0 2

0.4

0.6

Wat

er S

t(a

ll w

a

Current2025

0.0

0.2

0 00 20 40 60 81 0

W2025

0.00.20.40.60.81.0Relative distance from ocean

Source Estuary

Page 32: Basin Water Use Accounts

Comparing water stress of current Comparing water stress of current and future population (2025) in the and future population (2025) in the Indus BasinIndus Basin

300

200

250

ple

Current2025

150

200

on p

eop

50

100

Milli

o

0Low Medium Severe

Degree of water stress

Page 33: Basin Water Use Accounts

Water stress indices Water stress indices seasonal effectsseasonal effects Percentage of the population of the Indus Basin seasonal effectsseasonal effects

•• Whole IndusWhole Indus

living under varying degress of water stress: Current population and climate

70%

80%

MediumHighLow

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0%

10%

20%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecPercentage of the population of the Indus Basin living under varying degress of water stress: 2025

population and future climate

60%

70%

80%MediumHighLow

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0%

10%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Page 34: Basin Water Use Accounts

Other stress indicesOther stress indices

•• Dams Dams -- storage volume as a fraction of annual flowstorage volume as a fraction of annual flow–– Lake Volta ~ 3 x annual flow Lake Volta ~ 3 x annual flow –– Karkheh ~ 1 x annual flowKarkheh ~ 1 x annual flow

Mekong 0 05 x annual flowMekong 0 05 x annual flow–– Mekong ~ 0.05 x annual flowMekong ~ 0.05 x annual flow

•• Drought indices Drought indices -- recurrence recurrence •• Linked to populationLinked to population•• Linked to populationLinked to population

I di t b d ithI di t b d ith th Mth M D liD li•• Indices to be used with care Indices to be used with care -- the Murraythe Murray--Darling Darling would show as very stressed on most indices, but would show as very stressed on most indices, but we don’t propose to send international aid towe don’t propose to send international aid towe don t propose to send international aid to we don t propose to send international aid to relieve povertyrelieve poverty

Page 35: Basin Water Use Accounts

Conclusions Conclusions --tentative thoughtstentative thoughtstentative thoughtstentative thoughts

•• Want local input on data Want local input on data -- land use, etc.land use, etc.•• Can do water use accounts for many basins Can do water use accounts for many basins -- but but

data availability variesdata availability variesl l b l b ll l b l b l•• Basins vary greatly in water availability, variability, Basins vary greatly in water availability, variability,

managementmanagementB i lik l tl i l bilit t hB i lik l tl i l bilit t h•• Basins likely vary greatly in vulnerability to change Basins likely vary greatly in vulnerability to change

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Conclusions 2 Conclusions 2 Basins comparedBasins comparedBasins comparedBasins compared

•• Water use accounts give a foundation for comparing Water use accounts give a foundation for comparing basinsbasinsbasinsbasins

•• CPWF basins show range from dry to wetCPWF basins show range from dry to wet•• R f t t iti d t i tR f t t iti d t i t•• Range of water opportunities and constraintsRange of water opportunities and constraints•• Implications for transportability of results across Implications for transportability of results across

basins of similar hydrology type?basins of similar hydrology type?basins of similar hydrology type? basins of similar hydrology type? •• Foundation for economic analyses, developing other Foundation for economic analyses, developing other

models eg WEAPmodels eg WEAPmodels eg WEAPmodels eg WEAP

•• Role for analogous studies on food and poverty?Role for analogous studies on food and poverty?•• Role for analogous studies on food and poverty?Role for analogous studies on food and poverty?