Dimitris Mavrakis - Informa - Mobile Backhaul and Implications of using FTTX

11/09/2009

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28/09/2011

Mobile Backhaul and Implications

of Using FTTx: The Cost Perspective

Dimitris Mavrakis – Senior Analyst

@dmavrakis

[email protected]

Informa’s Network Economics Tool

28/09/2011www.informatm.com

©Confidential

3

Presentation structure

Demand

Supply

Costs

Future work

Air interface speeds and evolution

• WCDMA standard: 3GPP Release 99 – Q1 2000

– First WCDMA network: Telenor Norway, December 2001

• HSDPA standard: 3GPP Release 5 – Q1 2002

– First HSDPA network: Elisa Finland, April 2006

• LTE standard: 3GPP Release 8 – Q4 2008

– First LTE network: TeliaSonera Norway/Sweden, December 2009


©Confidential

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WCDMA

• 384kbps

HSDPA

• 1.8Mbps

HSUPA

• 14.4Mbps

HSPA+

• 42Mbps

LTE

• 100Mbps+

Demand

Base station forecasts


©Confidential

5

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Basesta

onunitshipments(thousands)

GSM/GPRS WCDMA CDMA1xRTT TD-SCDMA LTE WiMAX

Demand

Subscriber adoption


©Confidential

6

Demand

Backhaul priorities

• Ownership

• High speed & lower latency

–Fibre, microwave

–LTE RAN latency ≈ 20-30ms

–Latency between RNC & nodeB < 5ms

• Scalability, flexibility

–Ethernet

• Cost

–Network costs increase exponentially if distributed


©Confidential

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Demand

Current backhaul interest

Hybrid backhaul

Legacy TDM Satellite

Fibre

• FTTx, dark fibre, GPON

Microwave


©Confidential

8

Supply

Common denominator = Ethernet

FTTx costs

• OSP is biggest driver of FTTx costs

– Standardization required

• Trenching

– Aerial

– Façade

– Micro

– Full

• ONT challenges

– Economies of scale not yet big enough - not nearly as big as DSL

– Interoperability between vendors

• Careful planning, execution and commitment required


©Confidential

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Supply

Two different FTTx approaches

Verizon FiOS

Up to 150Mbps

Aggressive buildout

+Prepared for future

- CAPEX heavy

Cost = $18 billion

AT&T Uverse

Up to 24Mbps

Conservative buildout

+CAPEX requirements

- Traffic demand

Cost = $6.5 billion


©Confidential

10

Supply

Future work

• Ethernet synchronization

• Cloud RAN or baseband pooling

• Other backhaul solutions where there’s no fibre


©Confidential

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Supply

11/09/2009

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28/09/2011

Thank you.

Dimitris Mavrakis

Senior Analyst| Informa Telecoms & Media

Email: [email protected]

www.informatm.com

Technology

Dimitris Mavrakis - Informa - Mobile Backhaul and Implications of using FTTX