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Economic Indicators and Monthly Overview December 2013
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| [Presentation title] | [Client Name] | [Date] 1
Economic Indicators
Last update 13.12.2013
| Economic Indicators | 2
Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – December 2013
Europe:
• Consensus December GDP forecast for WE again remained on 0,0% for 2013 and on 1,3% for
2014.
• The EU industrial confidence improved again compared to last month while the consumer
confidence indicator decreased slightly from its October level.
• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany rose significantly, both, the assessment of the
current business situation as well as the assessment of the expectations improved.
• After the ECB cut the target interest rate by 0,25%points on November 7 the concern of the
central bank remains on the output gap, excess liquidity and a weak recovery.
US:
• Consensus December GDP forecast for the US remained on 1,7% for 2013 and on 2,6% for
2014.
• Q3 GDP figures were considerably revised upwards from 2,8% q-o-q to now 3,6%. Main driver
were inventories, but they could translate into a drag on Q4 growth. Financial markets are trying
to come to terms with the fact that monetary tapering is now likely to come sooner rather than
later.
Japan:
• The December GDP growth forecast for Japan came down from 1,9% to 1,8% for 2013 and
remained on 1,6% for 2014.
• Muted wage growth remains a burden to the outlook while many other of the country’s
parameters have improved during the last months.
3 | Economic Indicators |
Eurostat Data
| Economic Indicators | 4
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28
Source: Eurostat Dec 13
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
'07
Q1
'08
Q1
'09
Q1
'10
Q1
'11
Q1
12
Q1
13
Q1
%
GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year
| Economic Indicators | 5
Economic Indicators – GDP EU 28
Source: Eurostat Dec 13
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
'07Q
1
'08 Q
1
'09 Q
1
'10 Q
1
'11 Q
1
12
Q1
13
Q1
%
GDP for the EU 28 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter
| Economic Indicators | 6
Economic Indicators –EU 28 Consumer Price Index
Source: Eurostat Nov 13
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
08
/1
09
/1
10
/1
11
/1
12
/1
13
/1
0,9
%
The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration
between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.
| Economic Indicators | 7
Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate
Source: ECB, FED Dec 13
Nov.13; 0,9
Dec 13; 0,25
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
Jan
08
Ju
ly 0
8
Jan
09
Ju
l.09
Jan
10
Ju
l.10
Jan
11
Ju
ly 1
1
Jan
12
Ju
l.12
Jan
13
Ju
l.13
Jan
14
Ju
l.14
Jan
15
%
ECB short-term rate
Eurozone inflation
FED rate
| Economic Indicators | 8
Economic Indicators –EU 28 Unemployment Rate
Source: Eurostat Dec 13
10,9
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
%
Unemployment rate for EU 28 countries
| Economic Indicators | 9
Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Dec 13
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10Jan
06
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved again in November.
The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the
questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.
| Economic Indicators | 10
Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU
Source: Eurostat Dec 13
Consumer Confidence within EU 27 in November decreased slightly from October.
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Ja
n 0
6
Jan
07
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions
on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)
together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.
| Economic Indicators | 11
Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization
in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27
Source: Eurostat Nov 13
60
65
70
75
80
85
04
Q1
05
Q1
06
Q1
07
Q1
08
Q1
09
Q1
10
Q1
11
Q1
12
Q1
13
Q1
79,5
%
The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization
in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.
| Economic Indicators | 12
Ifo Data
| Economic Indicators | 13
Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate
Source: IFO Nov 13
The Ifo World Economic climate brightens in Q4 2013
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
| Economic Indicators | 14
Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate
Source: IFO Nov 13
The economic climate for Europe brightens significantly in Q4 2013.
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
| Economic Indicators | 15
Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate
Source: IFO Nov 13
This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.
| Economic Indicators | 16
Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area
Source: IFO Oct 13
| Economic Indicators | 17
Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany
Source: IFO Oct 13
| Economic Indicators | 18
Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €
Source: IFO Dec 13
| Economic Indicators | 19
Economic Indicators –
Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations
Source: IFO Dec 13
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Business situation 6 months expectations
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the
economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next
6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose significantly. Assessments of the current
business situation improved. Firms’ expectations regarding business developments rose to
their highest level since spring 2011. The German economy looks ahead to the winter months
with confidence.
| Economic Indicators | 20
Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current
Business Situation
Source: IFO Dec 13
The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany rose significantly. Assessments of the current
business situation improved. Firms’ expectations regarding business developments rose to
their highest level since spring 2011. The German economy looks ahead to the winter months
with confidence.
| Economic Indicators | 21
Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
Source: IFO Nov 13, bundesverband druck und medien
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jan
08
Jan
09
Jan
10
Jan
11
Jan
12
Jan
13
Jan
14
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
The business climate within the printing industry remained on -3 in November.
| Economic Indicators | 22
Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index
printing industry
The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is
based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.
Business Development at German Printers – November 2013:
The assessment of the current business situation in the printing
industry improved considerably compared to the last month to now 24%,
the highest value since December 1991. Still it has to be taken into
account that November is one of the months with the highest turnover
during the year. Remains to be seen whether this positive tendency will
continue.
The business climate – an indicator for the development in
the next quarter – remained on -3%, the same value as in the previous
month.
The business expectations for the coming 6 months worsened to -27%.
Source: IFO Dec 13, bundesverband druck und medien
| Economic Indicators | 23
Zenith Data
| Economic Indicators | 24
Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13
| Economic Indicators | 25
Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13
| Economic Indicators | 26
Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13
| Economic Indicators | 27
Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release
Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13