EUR/USDMarket Analysis

06.07.2013Erhan EKER

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EUR/USDDaily Outlook

Technical OutlookA huge almost one year long head and shoulders patter is forming. After Friday NFP data we tested neckline. Reaction to this test remained some weak but we are still above neckline. CCI is in sell zone.

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Esoteric OutlookTo solve the longer term outlook I'd rather to look at Jupiter - Saturn Cycle. Of course the Heliocentric one. This great cycle shows lowering prices until the beginning of 2014. Another interesting cycle that works fins recently are Heliocentric Earth - Venus Cycle. This cycle worked well on recent several cycles, so it is worth to take into account this cycle. Yes, on early August this cycle foresee a fast drop and a reversal sharply to up on the first part of the August. But we must first to consider more near future. Second graph above illustrates current cycles are in action. Uranus - Pluto Square moved price down and Saturn - Neptune Trine moved it back up. Later Solaraspects with previous two aspects actors turned back the trend to bearish bias. Saturn - Neptune Trine once again turned into waxing phase and soon Jupiter will join them to form a Grand Trine. We must expect again a

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bullish bias along with this aspect? It is a question market. For sure it will bring an optimistic atmosphere. However it is not easy to predict the effects of physiology to the market. In my opinion this optimism recognized by public as the end of crisis environment and this can trigger to the removal of QE policies. But we will live and see. We have two more weeks ahead to culminate that aspect. On third chart above I showed price-time balanced points along with Moon cycle turning points. Next potential turning point looks in the same week with the Grand Trine I mentioned above.

Hourly Outlook

Technical OutlookAbove picture shows current development of the market. Elliott Wise look to market tells us that current development is tend to continue. Bearish movement after NFP announcement probably completed the Wave 3 of Wave C of big ABC correction triggered by Bernanke announcement on June 19. So we should expect one more down move which is like to encounter with a selling climax and trigger a correction around 1.3040 levels. After June 27, price development had two deep correction which means we can expect a shallow correction on Wave 4 of Wave C if alternation rule works. CCI Divergence came out so we can consider ourselves around the last part of the bearish movement before a correction up. On the news I started to hear that Dollar gained too much and there can be some measures against this gaining.

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Esoteric OutlookWhen we look time-price relationship, we see that price started to go faster than time after ECB and NFP news releases. So we should expect some slow down on the trend to find balance. (Second graph above) When we look at the Lunar Cycle (First graph) we saw that Moon was (even now) in an air sign (Gemini). It means trend should change (probably temporarily) until Moon visit a fire sign (this time Leo - July 11).

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5 Minute Outlook

Technical OutlookCurrent development is clearly corrective structure.

Esoteric OutlookAbove graph I showed possible times of intraday trend changes.

CONCLUSIONIt looks that Euro bearish environment will continue at least until July 21 and most probably until early August. For upcoming week we can see a reaction to last two days fast bearish movements until late hours of July 11. I expect that this reaction will be weak. I have doubts that we can move above 1.2900 resistance level.

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Erhan EKERJuly 06, 2013https://twitter.com/EEKER79

Ps: I did not have time to read and control what I wrote above.. Sorry for typos, bad grammar and bad English :)