Evolving Issues with Japan-U.S. Arms Exports and it s Implications to

Japan’s Future Defense Capabilities:

Towards Synergistic Defense Capabilities for the Al liance

Col. Koji Imaki

Visiting Fellow, Japan Air Self Defense Force

Survey of Japan’s Defense CapabilityCurrent System Inventory of Japan Self Defense ForceControversial Development of Key Defense Systems

Defense Capability of U.S. Allies and PartnersUnited KingdomTaiwanRepublic of Korea

External and Internal Environment of Japanese and U .S. Defense InitiativesAnti-Access/Area Denial EnvironmentJapan’s Decision on Relaxing Arms Export PrinciplesU.S. Defense Strategic Guidance and its implication

for the Defense Industrial Base

Japan’s Future Defense CapabilityStrategic Vision in Shaping Defense CapabilityStrategic Goals in Defense CapabilityGuideline for Shaping Defense Capability

Outline

Offshore Development Joint Development Indigenous Development

U.S. Others

F-15F-4

E-767KC-767

F-2 JADGE *C-1

Japan’s Defense Inventories

Offshore Development Joint Development Indigenous Development

U.S. Others

P-3Aegis System

MCH-101 SM-3* P-1 (ASW**)Soryu-class Submarine

Hatakaze-class DestroyerUS-2 (Amphibious

Aircraft)

Offshore Development Joint Development Indigenous Development

U.S. Others

AH-64 Helicopter

Type-10 & -90 TankOH-1 HelicopterType-03 SAM*

SSM-1*

Air Power

Maritime Power

Ground Power

<Source> IISS, The Military Balance, 2010, & Jane’s, All the World’s Aircraft, 2009-2010

Offshore Development Joint Development Indigenous Development

U.S. Others

Air Force

E-3 TyphoonTornado(F-35)

Harrier

Navy Trident SLBM Invincible-class CarrierSheffield-class Destroyer

Vanguard-class Submarine

Army WAH-64 Helicopter Challenger-2 Tank

Offshore Development Joint Development

Indigenous DevelopmentU.S. Others

Air Force

F-16A/BE-2

Mirage2000 IDF*

Navy Kidd-class Destroyer

La Fayette-class FrigateZwaardvis-class Submarine

Army M-60 TankPatriot SAM

Offshore Development Joint Developmen

Indigenous Development

U.S. Others

Air Force

F-15KF-16C/D

E-737

Missile System(Russia)

A/T-50

Navy Aegis DestroyerP-3

209-class Submarine213-class Submarine

Sejong the Great -class DestroyerYi Sun Shin-class Destroyer

Army AH-1 HelicopterPatriot SAM

T-80U (Russia) K-2 Tank

U.S. Allies’/Partner’s Defense Inventories (Summary )

UK

Taiwan

ROK

U.S. Developed Fighter Aircraft in Allies’ Inventor y

<Source> Defense of Japan White Paper, 1975-2011, Japan Ministry of Defense. Hura, et. al., 2000, Interoperability: A Continuing Challenge in Coalition Air Operations, RAND.

★★★★FS-X

Year

Per

cent

age

of U

.S. F

ight

er

Japan’s Defense-Related System Development Overview

<Source> IISS, The Military Balance, 2010, & Jane’s, All the World’s Aircraft, 2009-2010, The World Defence Almanac 2009.

Geopolitical Landscape of Anti-Access Environment in Asia

<Source> Department of Defense, Office of the Secretary of Defense, Annual Report to Congress on the Military Power of the People’s Republicof China, 2009, p. 18, accessed at http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/pdfs/China_Military_Power_Report_2009.pdf), on February 28, 2012.

South China Sea

GuamOkinawa

Geographical Environments in Southwestern Japan

1000km

350km

<Source> BBC News, Asia-Pacific. Retrieved on March 8, 2012 from http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11341139

Layered Capability in Defense System

Range Fire Power

Mobility Persistency Resilience

Connectivity

LO*Enhanced Sensor

Tier-3

Tier-2

Tier-1(Baseline)

*LO: Low Observatory

Supplemental Slides

Japan’s Future Arms Development

Tier-3

Tier-2

Tier-1

OffshoreDevelopment

JointDevelopment

IndigenousDevelopment

F-35

F-2

C-2

E-767

F-15 P-3

P-1

BMDSystem

10-Tank

SAM

Soryu-Submarine

Developing/Producing

Existing

AerialMaritimeGround