From Polysilicon to Power: The Solar Market in 2011 and Beyond

Greentech Media’s 2011 Solar Summit

COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!

From Polysilicon to Power: The Solar Market in 2011 and Beyond

Greentech Media Solar Summit

Shayle Kann, Managing Director, Solar Shyam Mehta, Senior Analyst, Solar Markets


Agenda   Global PV Demand

  2010 Recap   2011 Outlook   U.S. Market Focus

  Global PV Supply   The Industrial Age   Manufacturing Costs: Current Benchmarks, Evolution, Revolution   Supply-Demand Dynamics   Thin Film PV: Time to Taste the Pudding   Supplier Competitive Positioning   Where is U.S. PV Manufacturing Heading?

  Q&A

COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!4

Global PV Demand: A Series of Gold Rushes

Source: GTM Research


Germany in 2011? Look at 2010

Source: Bundesnetzagentur, GTM Research


Are Other Gold Rush Markets Brewing?


2011 and Beyond: Global Market Outlook

  Current 2011 estimate: 20.6 GW (17% growth), but significant uncertainty

  2012: flat given clamp-down of incentives in key FiT markets, followed by 12-20% growth in 2013-2015

  Key trend is demand diffusion

Source: GTM Research Source: GTM Research


U.S. Market Focus

Source: GTM Research/SEIA® U.S. Solar Market Insight TM: 2010 Year-in-Review

COPYRIGHT 2011 GTM RESEARCH ALL RIGHTS RESERVED!9

The Growing Importance of the U.S. Market



U.S. States With >10 MW of PV Installations, 2007

NV

NJ

CO CA



U.S. States With >10 MW of PV Installations, 2010

HI

NV CO

CA

FL

AZ NM

TX

IL OH

PA

MA NY

NC

NJ

OR



Pie Size Represents Total Capacity Installed (MWdc) 258.9

MWdc

Residential

Utility

Non-Residential 2.2 MWdc

U.S. Market in 2010 - by State & Segment


Will the Utility Market Take Over?

13



Foreign Entrants

European PV Developers

Pure Play U.S. PV Developers

Divisions of Other Corporate Parents

Joint Ventures

Verti

cally

Inte

grat

ed M

anuf

actu

rers

Util

ity A

ffilia

tes

Inde

pend

ent P

ower

Pro

duce

rs

Ups

tream

Ent

rant

s Traditional Entrants

Corporate Entrants JV Entrants

U.S. Utility PV Project Developer Taxonomy


Final Thoughts: We Have a Long Way to Go

15

Source: DOE, GTM Research


How a PV Module is Born

Polysilicon Wafer Cell Module


PV Enters the Industrial Age Factories w/capacity above 1 GW   2009: 1 wafer, 1 cell, 1 module   2013: 22 wafer, 15 cell, 11 module

  Vertically integrated wafer-cell-module facility is dominant model of the “gigawatt fab”

  Distributed module assembly model still favored by many

  Polysilicon: Absence of sustained bottleneck, capital risk, technical challenges limited instances of integration

  How important is downstream integration at this scale?


Manufacturing Costs: Current Benchmarks

$0.42/W $0.28/W $0.23/W $0.30/W $1.23/W

Polysilicon

$60/kg at 7g/Wp, low-cost location, 750 MW scale, full utilization, 14% efficiency

Wafer Cell Module

$0.47/W $0.11/W $0.06/W $0.11/W $0.75/W

Materials Depreciation Labor Utilities, Overhead

China Vertically Integrated (wafer-module) Crystalline Si

CdTe (First Solar)

Low-cost location, 1 GW scale, 90%+ yield, high throughput, full utilization, 11.5% efficiency


Manufacturing Costs: Evolution   Need to distinguish b/w

incremental improvements (current technology) vs. step-function reduction (innovation)

  Incremental drivers:   Cheaper poly (~$35/kg)   Thinner wafers (~145 ųm)   Efficiency up (~15%)   Vertical integration (wafer-module)   Scale-up (2 GW+)

  Threats to cost reductions:   Poly bottlenecks   Commodity prices (Al, Ag, glass)   Cost/efficiency trade-offs

  When does existing technology hit a plateau?


Manufacturing Costs: Revolution What technologies could drive step-

function cost reductions in $/kWh? Polysilicon

  FBR (MEMC, REC)   UMG (CaliSolar)

Wafer   Diamond saws   Ultra-thin wafers (< 100 ųm)   Kerfless wafering (SiGen, 1366)

Cell   N-type (Yingli, Suniva)   Ion implantation (Suniva)   Back-contact (Trina)   Selective emitter (Solarfun, Schott)   Other (PERL, EWT, MWT, Silicon ink)

Module   High-efficiency glass (Corning)   Ultra-thin/reflective encapsulant (DuPont)   Glass-free front sheet (Saint-Gobain)


Supply-Demand Dynamics   Wafer/cell – need to distinguish

between low-cost and high-cost supply; module – bankable supply vs. other

  Acute undersupply of low-cost cells, wafers, and bankable low-cost modules in 2010; likely to continue in H1 2011 and gate demand; pricing, availability will be tight

  H2 2011 more uncertain, but likely to see price drops, higher availability of modules

  2012: The return of oversupply? Price reductions required to trigger demand elasticity?


Thin Film PV: Time to Taste the Pudding   2010 TF production: 1,454 MW CdTe,

1,543 MW a-Si, 395 MW CIGS/CIS

  Stable c-Si pricing, strong demand drive high utilizations, cost reductions at 25-75 MW capacity

  Multiple hurdles to cross to scale successfully:   Process optimized for high yield/throughput   Capital for expansion   Downstream partners   Product reliability (product bankability)

  Financing partners (supplier bankability)

  Who will drive the market?   CdTe: First Solar, Abound, GE   CIGS: Solar Frontier, Solibro, ~7 U.S.

manufacturers   Amorphous Si: Sharp, ~20 Chinese producers


Supplier Competitive Positioning

23

Trina, Yingli

First Solar

Solar Frontier Sharp (tandem)

SunPower

Suntech

Canadian, Jinko, Hanwha

REC (Singapore)


Where is U.S. PV Manufacturing Headed? 2013

c -‐ Si Wafer W C c -‐ Si Cell c-‐Si Module CdTe CIGS Amorphous Si

P Polysilicon M

Inverter i


Thank You!   Email:

[email protected] [email protected]

  GTM Research: www.gtmresearch.com

  SEIA/GTM Research U.S. Solar Market Insight: www.gtmresearch.com/solarinsight

Technology

From Polysilicon to Power: The Solar Market in 2011 and Beyond