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Future Farm Industries Cooperative Research Centre: Profitable
Perennials
R R Farquharson, A Abadi, C Lewis, J McGrath, and K Goss
Objectives of this talk
1. Outline the FFI CRC objectives Headline farming systems Impacts of the CRC
An economic evaluation
2. Some issues in adoption of one technology New pastures in southern Australia Risks and returns in a variable climate
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1. FFI CRC objectivesDevelop ‘Profitable Perennials’ to ..
Change the nature of farming
Create new industries
Inform the management of catchments
.. in southern Australia
ContextTypical (historical) climate variability
Potential future climate change
ActivitiesR&D, Education and Training
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Headline farming systemsEverGraze – pasture & livestock systems for HRZ
Enrich – fodder shrubs in mixed farming systems
EverCrop – perennials in crop-dominated systems
New Woody Crop Industries – woody perennials integrated in mixed farms
Saltland Systems – production from saltland in mixed farming systems
Environment – perennials & their environmental footprint in dryland agricultural landscapes
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How?Conducts farming systems-based R&D
With numerous partners
Purpose - develop Profitable PerennialsTM Increase productivity of existing industries
Develop new regional industries through investment in woody crop production on farm
Reduce the risk of natural resource degradation, including dryland salinity
Improve conservation of biodiversity & water resources
Impacts expressed as changes in key headline farming systems
Direct monetary benefits & additional non-monetary benefits
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Types of benefitsMonetary benefits
Costs and impacts
Discounted cash flow (5%)
Adoption pattern
Environment
Adoption of INFFER
Improvement in NRM investment and policy
Non-monetary impacts
Water use, biodiversity, weed risks
Science capability & capacity building
Risk analysis
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Monetary impacts
Indicator Unit Analysis
Program impact life span Year 2007-21 2007-30
Land impacted Mha 2.07 5.90
Net benefits (Most likely scenario)
$M 808 2,510
Net benefits (Conservative scenario)
$M 513 1,460
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Adoption pattern
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2. Adoption of pasturesPerennial pastures Western Victoria HRZ
DCF analysis – time and risk dimensions
Representative whole-farm analysis• Including
Livestock carrying capacity, extra return on capital invested, finance implications, partial development budget approach, includes climatic risk
Generate information for farmers/extension re adoption
Climate variability & pasture investment
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Representative farm
Enterprise Lambing/calving Area (ha) ProductSheep 800
- SR Merino September 560 Wool
- Mer x White Suffolk
July 240 Prime lambs
Beef
- Angus April 200 Steers & cull heifers
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ComparisonsBase Case
Rye grass/sub clover with capeweed at Hamilton
EverGraze Triple
SARDI7 Lucerne, Avalon rye, Quantum Tall Fescue
EverGraze Ryegrass
Fitzroy rye, Avalon rye, Banquet rye
Pasture growth and quality included
Gross Margins, importance of supplementary feed costs
NPV & IRR
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Cumulative NCF
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Risk-return analysisMean-variance efficiency (Hardaker)
Importance of stocking rate
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ConclusionsPotential economic (& non-economic) impacts of FFI CRC activities are substantial for southern Australian dryland livestock-cropping systems
An ex ante analysis based on projected benefits
For one pasture technology, we investigated
Cash flow, investment & risk-return trade-offs for farm-level adoption
Links - climatic risk, profitability & adoption
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Acknowledgements