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Slides presentate in occasione del Seminario "The Energy transition in Europe: different pathways, same destination? organizzato da Edison in collaborazione con WEC Italia il 29 maggio 2013 a Roma - TWITTER #NRGstrategy
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1
Germanylsquos Energiewendey g
P f D G E dProf Dr Georg ErdmannTU Berlin Chair Energy Systems
Member of the Federal Commission Energie der ZukunftldquoMember of the Federal Commission bdquoEnergie der ZukunftPresident of the GEE eV
Edison-WEC Workshop bdquoThe Energy Transition in EuropeldquoRome 29 May 2013
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
2
REN Power Generation in Germany [Source AGEB]
120
Electricity from renewable sources [TWh]
80
100
60
20
40
01990 1995 2000 2005 2010
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Hydro Wind Biomass PV
3
Gross Power Generation in Germany [Source AGEB]
Gross electricity generation [TWh]
600
400
500
300
100
200
01990 1995 2000 2005 2010
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
REN Oil Hard coal Lignite Gas Nuclear Other
4
Agenda ldquoGerman Energy Policy 2013rdquo
bull Origin and issues of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Targets and conflicts of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Actual challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquondash Will there be enough grid investments until 2022Will there be enough grid investments until 2022ndash What role of lignite power plants (Vattenfall)ndash Is there a need for a capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
5
(Nuclear) Energy Policy in Germany
bull Autumn 2009 After a pro nuclear campaign Merkelbull Autumn 2009 After a pro-nuclear campaign Merkel became reelected and replaced Social-democrats by the Liberal party as junior partner
bull But the modification of the Nuclear Energy Act (AtG) was postponed until the state elections in North Rhine Westphalia (NRW)
bull May 2010 The ruling parties (Christian-democrats and Liberals) lost the NRW elections
bull In spite of the problems with the Euro the Federal Government asked energy researchers to develop green energy scenarios with
P t i l h t b 4 t 20ndash Postponing nuclear power phase-out by 4 to 20 yearsndash Strong CO2 reduction targetsndash Accelerated development of renewable energies
ldquoPricerdquo for more nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
ndash Ambitious energy efficiency improvementsmore nuclear
TPES in Green Scenarios6
TPES in Green Scenarios[Source BMU-Leitstudie DLR December 2010 p 38]
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
7
German Energy Concept 2050 [September 2010]
Political target Base year 2020 2030 2040 2050Political target Base year 2020 2030 2040 2050
Greenhouse gas emissions 1990 40 55 50 80‐95
Primary energy consumption 2008 20 50
Energy productivity 21 pa
Power consumption 2008 10 25
CHP electricity share 25 ldquoPricerdquo for CHP electricity share 25
Heat demand of building stock 2008 10
Primary energy in building stock 80
more nuclear
Modernization rate of buildings 2 pa
Final energy in transportation 2005 20 40
Number of electric vehicles 1 Mio 6 MioNumber of electric vehicles 1 Mio 6 Mio
REN share in energy consumption 18 30 45 60
REN electricity share 35 50 65 80
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
REN electricity share 35 50 65 80
8
Nuclear Phase-out after Fukushima (11 Mars 2011)
bull March 15 2011 Federal government decree toMarch 15 2011 Federal government decree to immediately shut-down 8rsquo800 MW nuclear power (7 NPP + Kruumlmmel) for tree months
April J ne 2011 ldquoEthic Commissionrdquo itho t energbull AprilndashJune 2011 ldquoEthic Commissionrdquo without energy experts under the presidency of Klaus Toumlpfer
bull Conclusion ldquoDer Ausstieg ist noumltig und wird empfohlenrdquog g p
bull July 2011 Parliamentary decision of a package of energy law amendmentsndash Definitive shut-down of the 7+1 NPPndash Remaining 9 NPP (12rsquo700 MW) shall be closed
until 2022ndash Accelerated transmission grid investmentsndash EEG amendment (direct sales of EEG electricity)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Energiewende = Energy Concept 2050 plus nuclear phase-out
9
Agenda ldquoGerman Energy Policy 2013rdquo
bull Origin and issues of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Targets and conflicts of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Actual challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquondash Will there be enough grid investments until 2022Will there be enough grid investments until 2022ndash What role of lignite power plants (Vattenfall)ndash Is there a need for a capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
10ldquoMagic Trianglerdquo of Energy Policy
pricewuumlrdigkeitCosts of energy servicespricewuumlrdigkeitCosts of energy services
Umweltvertr aumlglichkeitEnvironment (without GHG) Supply security
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
l d d G11
Energy related Land Use in Germany [Data source FNR 2012]
Energy crops (hectare) 2011 2012 2020
Land use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 MioLand use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 Mio
Thereof for bio fuels 115 Mio 116 Mio 23 Mio
Thereof for bio‐gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 MioThereof for bio gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 Mio
Share of arable land 17 21 36
F th l d i t fFurther land use requirements for bull Onshore‐wind and large PV installationsbull Power transmission linesbull Pumped water storage facilitiesbull Geothermal facilities bio‐methane facilities hellip
( )
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Lignite mines (open pits)
12
Power Generation Capacity [Source UumlNB 2012]
2011 2011Capacities in GW 2011(real)
2011(model) 2012 2013 2014 2015
Installed for generation 1533 1533 1683 1695 1832 1925
Non‐available load 444 603 739 747 836 934
Energencies 56 62 67 62 62 65
Revisios 21 21 20 20 20 20
Reserve for systemservices 46 46 47 48 49 50services
= Secured load 967 801 815 818 861 856
demand 812 812 817 817 817 817
Remaining load 155 ‐11 ‐01 01 44 39
Load incl capacities from 17 2 0 8 1 7 2 2 6 5 6 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
pneighboring countries 172 08 17 22 65 60
13
Ch i thChanges in the Power Plant
P tf li til 2022Portfolio until 2022
ZubauStill‐legung
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
14
Affordability of Electricity
Ability to payAbility‐to‐paybull Number of customers interrupted due to outstanding
electricity and gas paymentsbull Number of customer receiving Social support payments
for their energy purchasesbull Special benefits for energy intensive customersSpecial benefits for energy intensive customers
Willingness‐to‐paybull Special benefits for energy intensive customers (Lobbying)bull Energy efficiency improvementsbull Closures of energy intensive activitiesClosures of energy intensive activitiesbull Own generation (today option for avoiding grid fees REN
levy and electricity taxes)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
15
Revenues from Power Sales [Source Destatis 2012]
546589
61 3
633
60
Billion Euros
39 4 406 415 412 39 38 141
473505
585613
50
39440
408 415 41
39
36
381
37343
30
40
20
10
1991 99 2000 200 20 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010
16
Aggregated Electricity Expenditures 2011
Billion Euros Share Billion Euros Share Total electricity expenditures for final consumers 636 1000Government induced elements 220 345thereofthereof
Electricity tax 72 114Concession fees 22 34REN l 12 3 19 4REN levy 123 194CHP levy 02 03
Government regulated elements 176 277thereoff
Power transmission fees 22 35Power distribution fees 154 242
Market driven elements 240 378thereoff
Market value of REN electricity 44 69
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
y Generation and marketing 196 309
17Decomposition of the REN Levy 20123
6 tkWh527
079052
030 005 004 ‐054 ‐031
‐009 00 ‐002 048
031 012 0035
6 ctkWh
359
3
4
Other effectsVolume effect Price effect1
2
0
1
012
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
cast
erve
nces
ther
013
REN levy 20 So
Wind Onsh
Biom
Wind Offsh Ot So
Wind Onsh
Bio m
Wind Offsh Ot
price Forec
quidity
rese
N preferen Ot
REN levy 20
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
R W W W W
DA‐
Liq
RE
R
S l 202018
REN Levy Scenarios until 2020 [Source EWI 2012 BMU 2009-2011 IE Leipzig 2012 r2b 2012 Erdmann 2012]
80
90 ctkWh
60
70 BMU forecast May 2013
40
50
20
30
00
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
G C f f ll19
Generation Cost of PV Roof Installations [800-1000 kWhkWpa Interest rate =5-8]
Power price
100
120generation cost [ctkWh ]
60
80
40
60 PV generation cost
0
20
4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Household electricity price (incl VAT)
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Source Johannes Henkel and Lars Dittmar 2011
20
Selection of Inconsistencies
bull Immature technologies for mass market deploymentbull Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind batteries CAES power‐to‐gas hellip)
bull European national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020
bull Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings
bull Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings
bull Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumption
E l i i it i i d ffi ibull Energy only pricing capacity pricing and energy efficiency
bull Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission lines
Marginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
2
REN Power Generation in Germany [Source AGEB]
120
Electricity from renewable sources [TWh]
80
100
60
20
40
01990 1995 2000 2005 2010
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Hydro Wind Biomass PV
3
Gross Power Generation in Germany [Source AGEB]
Gross electricity generation [TWh]
600
400
500
300
100
200
01990 1995 2000 2005 2010
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
REN Oil Hard coal Lignite Gas Nuclear Other
4
Agenda ldquoGerman Energy Policy 2013rdquo
bull Origin and issues of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Targets and conflicts of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Actual challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquondash Will there be enough grid investments until 2022Will there be enough grid investments until 2022ndash What role of lignite power plants (Vattenfall)ndash Is there a need for a capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
5
(Nuclear) Energy Policy in Germany
bull Autumn 2009 After a pro nuclear campaign Merkelbull Autumn 2009 After a pro-nuclear campaign Merkel became reelected and replaced Social-democrats by the Liberal party as junior partner
bull But the modification of the Nuclear Energy Act (AtG) was postponed until the state elections in North Rhine Westphalia (NRW)
bull May 2010 The ruling parties (Christian-democrats and Liberals) lost the NRW elections
bull In spite of the problems with the Euro the Federal Government asked energy researchers to develop green energy scenarios with
P t i l h t b 4 t 20ndash Postponing nuclear power phase-out by 4 to 20 yearsndash Strong CO2 reduction targetsndash Accelerated development of renewable energies
ldquoPricerdquo for more nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
ndash Ambitious energy efficiency improvementsmore nuclear
TPES in Green Scenarios6
TPES in Green Scenarios[Source BMU-Leitstudie DLR December 2010 p 38]
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
7
German Energy Concept 2050 [September 2010]
Political target Base year 2020 2030 2040 2050Political target Base year 2020 2030 2040 2050
Greenhouse gas emissions 1990 40 55 50 80‐95
Primary energy consumption 2008 20 50
Energy productivity 21 pa
Power consumption 2008 10 25
CHP electricity share 25 ldquoPricerdquo for CHP electricity share 25
Heat demand of building stock 2008 10
Primary energy in building stock 80
more nuclear
Modernization rate of buildings 2 pa
Final energy in transportation 2005 20 40
Number of electric vehicles 1 Mio 6 MioNumber of electric vehicles 1 Mio 6 Mio
REN share in energy consumption 18 30 45 60
REN electricity share 35 50 65 80
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
REN electricity share 35 50 65 80
8
Nuclear Phase-out after Fukushima (11 Mars 2011)
bull March 15 2011 Federal government decree toMarch 15 2011 Federal government decree to immediately shut-down 8rsquo800 MW nuclear power (7 NPP + Kruumlmmel) for tree months
April J ne 2011 ldquoEthic Commissionrdquo itho t energbull AprilndashJune 2011 ldquoEthic Commissionrdquo without energy experts under the presidency of Klaus Toumlpfer
bull Conclusion ldquoDer Ausstieg ist noumltig und wird empfohlenrdquog g p
bull July 2011 Parliamentary decision of a package of energy law amendmentsndash Definitive shut-down of the 7+1 NPPndash Remaining 9 NPP (12rsquo700 MW) shall be closed
until 2022ndash Accelerated transmission grid investmentsndash EEG amendment (direct sales of EEG electricity)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Energiewende = Energy Concept 2050 plus nuclear phase-out
9
Agenda ldquoGerman Energy Policy 2013rdquo
bull Origin and issues of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Targets and conflicts of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Actual challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquondash Will there be enough grid investments until 2022Will there be enough grid investments until 2022ndash What role of lignite power plants (Vattenfall)ndash Is there a need for a capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
10ldquoMagic Trianglerdquo of Energy Policy
pricewuumlrdigkeitCosts of energy servicespricewuumlrdigkeitCosts of energy services
Umweltvertr aumlglichkeitEnvironment (without GHG) Supply security
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
l d d G11
Energy related Land Use in Germany [Data source FNR 2012]
Energy crops (hectare) 2011 2012 2020
Land use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 MioLand use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 Mio
Thereof for bio fuels 115 Mio 116 Mio 23 Mio
Thereof for bio‐gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 MioThereof for bio gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 Mio
Share of arable land 17 21 36
F th l d i t fFurther land use requirements for bull Onshore‐wind and large PV installationsbull Power transmission linesbull Pumped water storage facilitiesbull Geothermal facilities bio‐methane facilities hellip
( )
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Lignite mines (open pits)
12
Power Generation Capacity [Source UumlNB 2012]
2011 2011Capacities in GW 2011(real)
2011(model) 2012 2013 2014 2015
Installed for generation 1533 1533 1683 1695 1832 1925
Non‐available load 444 603 739 747 836 934
Energencies 56 62 67 62 62 65
Revisios 21 21 20 20 20 20
Reserve for systemservices 46 46 47 48 49 50services
= Secured load 967 801 815 818 861 856
demand 812 812 817 817 817 817
Remaining load 155 ‐11 ‐01 01 44 39
Load incl capacities from 17 2 0 8 1 7 2 2 6 5 6 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
pneighboring countries 172 08 17 22 65 60
13
Ch i thChanges in the Power Plant
P tf li til 2022Portfolio until 2022
ZubauStill‐legung
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
14
Affordability of Electricity
Ability to payAbility‐to‐paybull Number of customers interrupted due to outstanding
electricity and gas paymentsbull Number of customer receiving Social support payments
for their energy purchasesbull Special benefits for energy intensive customersSpecial benefits for energy intensive customers
Willingness‐to‐paybull Special benefits for energy intensive customers (Lobbying)bull Energy efficiency improvementsbull Closures of energy intensive activitiesClosures of energy intensive activitiesbull Own generation (today option for avoiding grid fees REN
levy and electricity taxes)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
15
Revenues from Power Sales [Source Destatis 2012]
546589
61 3
633
60
Billion Euros
39 4 406 415 412 39 38 141
473505
585613
50
39440
408 415 41
39
36
381
37343
30
40
20
10
1991 99 2000 200 20 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010
16
Aggregated Electricity Expenditures 2011
Billion Euros Share Billion Euros Share Total electricity expenditures for final consumers 636 1000Government induced elements 220 345thereofthereof
Electricity tax 72 114Concession fees 22 34REN l 12 3 19 4REN levy 123 194CHP levy 02 03
Government regulated elements 176 277thereoff
Power transmission fees 22 35Power distribution fees 154 242
Market driven elements 240 378thereoff
Market value of REN electricity 44 69
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
y Generation and marketing 196 309
17Decomposition of the REN Levy 20123
6 tkWh527
079052
030 005 004 ‐054 ‐031
‐009 00 ‐002 048
031 012 0035
6 ctkWh
359
3
4
Other effectsVolume effect Price effect1
2
0
1
012
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
cast
erve
nces
ther
013
REN levy 20 So
Wind Onsh
Biom
Wind Offsh Ot So
Wind Onsh
Bio m
Wind Offsh Ot
price Forec
quidity
rese
N preferen Ot
REN levy 20
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
R W W W W
DA‐
Liq
RE
R
S l 202018
REN Levy Scenarios until 2020 [Source EWI 2012 BMU 2009-2011 IE Leipzig 2012 r2b 2012 Erdmann 2012]
80
90 ctkWh
60
70 BMU forecast May 2013
40
50
20
30
00
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
G C f f ll19
Generation Cost of PV Roof Installations [800-1000 kWhkWpa Interest rate =5-8]
Power price
100
120generation cost [ctkWh ]
60
80
40
60 PV generation cost
0
20
4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Household electricity price (incl VAT)
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Source Johannes Henkel and Lars Dittmar 2011
20
Selection of Inconsistencies
bull Immature technologies for mass market deploymentbull Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind batteries CAES power‐to‐gas hellip)
bull European national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020
bull Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings
bull Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings
bull Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumption
E l i i it i i d ffi ibull Energy only pricing capacity pricing and energy efficiency
bull Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission lines
Marginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
3
Gross Power Generation in Germany [Source AGEB]
Gross electricity generation [TWh]
600
400
500
300
100
200
01990 1995 2000 2005 2010
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
REN Oil Hard coal Lignite Gas Nuclear Other
4
Agenda ldquoGerman Energy Policy 2013rdquo
bull Origin and issues of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Targets and conflicts of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Actual challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquondash Will there be enough grid investments until 2022Will there be enough grid investments until 2022ndash What role of lignite power plants (Vattenfall)ndash Is there a need for a capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
5
(Nuclear) Energy Policy in Germany
bull Autumn 2009 After a pro nuclear campaign Merkelbull Autumn 2009 After a pro-nuclear campaign Merkel became reelected and replaced Social-democrats by the Liberal party as junior partner
bull But the modification of the Nuclear Energy Act (AtG) was postponed until the state elections in North Rhine Westphalia (NRW)
bull May 2010 The ruling parties (Christian-democrats and Liberals) lost the NRW elections
bull In spite of the problems with the Euro the Federal Government asked energy researchers to develop green energy scenarios with
P t i l h t b 4 t 20ndash Postponing nuclear power phase-out by 4 to 20 yearsndash Strong CO2 reduction targetsndash Accelerated development of renewable energies
ldquoPricerdquo for more nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
ndash Ambitious energy efficiency improvementsmore nuclear
TPES in Green Scenarios6
TPES in Green Scenarios[Source BMU-Leitstudie DLR December 2010 p 38]
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
7
German Energy Concept 2050 [September 2010]
Political target Base year 2020 2030 2040 2050Political target Base year 2020 2030 2040 2050
Greenhouse gas emissions 1990 40 55 50 80‐95
Primary energy consumption 2008 20 50
Energy productivity 21 pa
Power consumption 2008 10 25
CHP electricity share 25 ldquoPricerdquo for CHP electricity share 25
Heat demand of building stock 2008 10
Primary energy in building stock 80
more nuclear
Modernization rate of buildings 2 pa
Final energy in transportation 2005 20 40
Number of electric vehicles 1 Mio 6 MioNumber of electric vehicles 1 Mio 6 Mio
REN share in energy consumption 18 30 45 60
REN electricity share 35 50 65 80
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
REN electricity share 35 50 65 80
8
Nuclear Phase-out after Fukushima (11 Mars 2011)
bull March 15 2011 Federal government decree toMarch 15 2011 Federal government decree to immediately shut-down 8rsquo800 MW nuclear power (7 NPP + Kruumlmmel) for tree months
April J ne 2011 ldquoEthic Commissionrdquo itho t energbull AprilndashJune 2011 ldquoEthic Commissionrdquo without energy experts under the presidency of Klaus Toumlpfer
bull Conclusion ldquoDer Ausstieg ist noumltig und wird empfohlenrdquog g p
bull July 2011 Parliamentary decision of a package of energy law amendmentsndash Definitive shut-down of the 7+1 NPPndash Remaining 9 NPP (12rsquo700 MW) shall be closed
until 2022ndash Accelerated transmission grid investmentsndash EEG amendment (direct sales of EEG electricity)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Energiewende = Energy Concept 2050 plus nuclear phase-out
9
Agenda ldquoGerman Energy Policy 2013rdquo
bull Origin and issues of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Targets and conflicts of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Actual challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquondash Will there be enough grid investments until 2022Will there be enough grid investments until 2022ndash What role of lignite power plants (Vattenfall)ndash Is there a need for a capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
10ldquoMagic Trianglerdquo of Energy Policy
pricewuumlrdigkeitCosts of energy servicespricewuumlrdigkeitCosts of energy services
Umweltvertr aumlglichkeitEnvironment (without GHG) Supply security
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
l d d G11
Energy related Land Use in Germany [Data source FNR 2012]
Energy crops (hectare) 2011 2012 2020
Land use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 MioLand use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 Mio
Thereof for bio fuels 115 Mio 116 Mio 23 Mio
Thereof for bio‐gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 MioThereof for bio gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 Mio
Share of arable land 17 21 36
F th l d i t fFurther land use requirements for bull Onshore‐wind and large PV installationsbull Power transmission linesbull Pumped water storage facilitiesbull Geothermal facilities bio‐methane facilities hellip
( )
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Lignite mines (open pits)
12
Power Generation Capacity [Source UumlNB 2012]
2011 2011Capacities in GW 2011(real)
2011(model) 2012 2013 2014 2015
Installed for generation 1533 1533 1683 1695 1832 1925
Non‐available load 444 603 739 747 836 934
Energencies 56 62 67 62 62 65
Revisios 21 21 20 20 20 20
Reserve for systemservices 46 46 47 48 49 50services
= Secured load 967 801 815 818 861 856
demand 812 812 817 817 817 817
Remaining load 155 ‐11 ‐01 01 44 39
Load incl capacities from 17 2 0 8 1 7 2 2 6 5 6 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
pneighboring countries 172 08 17 22 65 60
13
Ch i thChanges in the Power Plant
P tf li til 2022Portfolio until 2022
ZubauStill‐legung
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
14
Affordability of Electricity
Ability to payAbility‐to‐paybull Number of customers interrupted due to outstanding
electricity and gas paymentsbull Number of customer receiving Social support payments
for their energy purchasesbull Special benefits for energy intensive customersSpecial benefits for energy intensive customers
Willingness‐to‐paybull Special benefits for energy intensive customers (Lobbying)bull Energy efficiency improvementsbull Closures of energy intensive activitiesClosures of energy intensive activitiesbull Own generation (today option for avoiding grid fees REN
levy and electricity taxes)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
15
Revenues from Power Sales [Source Destatis 2012]
546589
61 3
633
60
Billion Euros
39 4 406 415 412 39 38 141
473505
585613
50
39440
408 415 41
39
36
381
37343
30
40
20
10
1991 99 2000 200 20 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010
16
Aggregated Electricity Expenditures 2011
Billion Euros Share Billion Euros Share Total electricity expenditures for final consumers 636 1000Government induced elements 220 345thereofthereof
Electricity tax 72 114Concession fees 22 34REN l 12 3 19 4REN levy 123 194CHP levy 02 03
Government regulated elements 176 277thereoff
Power transmission fees 22 35Power distribution fees 154 242
Market driven elements 240 378thereoff
Market value of REN electricity 44 69
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
y Generation and marketing 196 309
17Decomposition of the REN Levy 20123
6 tkWh527
079052
030 005 004 ‐054 ‐031
‐009 00 ‐002 048
031 012 0035
6 ctkWh
359
3
4
Other effectsVolume effect Price effect1
2
0
1
012
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
cast
erve
nces
ther
013
REN levy 20 So
Wind Onsh
Biom
Wind Offsh Ot So
Wind Onsh
Bio m
Wind Offsh Ot
price Forec
quidity
rese
N preferen Ot
REN levy 20
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
R W W W W
DA‐
Liq
RE
R
S l 202018
REN Levy Scenarios until 2020 [Source EWI 2012 BMU 2009-2011 IE Leipzig 2012 r2b 2012 Erdmann 2012]
80
90 ctkWh
60
70 BMU forecast May 2013
40
50
20
30
00
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
G C f f ll19
Generation Cost of PV Roof Installations [800-1000 kWhkWpa Interest rate =5-8]
Power price
100
120generation cost [ctkWh ]
60
80
40
60 PV generation cost
0
20
4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Household electricity price (incl VAT)
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Source Johannes Henkel and Lars Dittmar 2011
20
Selection of Inconsistencies
bull Immature technologies for mass market deploymentbull Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind batteries CAES power‐to‐gas hellip)
bull European national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020
bull Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings
bull Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings
bull Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumption
E l i i it i i d ffi ibull Energy only pricing capacity pricing and energy efficiency
bull Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission lines
Marginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
4
Agenda ldquoGerman Energy Policy 2013rdquo
bull Origin and issues of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Targets and conflicts of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Actual challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquondash Will there be enough grid investments until 2022Will there be enough grid investments until 2022ndash What role of lignite power plants (Vattenfall)ndash Is there a need for a capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
5
(Nuclear) Energy Policy in Germany
bull Autumn 2009 After a pro nuclear campaign Merkelbull Autumn 2009 After a pro-nuclear campaign Merkel became reelected and replaced Social-democrats by the Liberal party as junior partner
bull But the modification of the Nuclear Energy Act (AtG) was postponed until the state elections in North Rhine Westphalia (NRW)
bull May 2010 The ruling parties (Christian-democrats and Liberals) lost the NRW elections
bull In spite of the problems with the Euro the Federal Government asked energy researchers to develop green energy scenarios with
P t i l h t b 4 t 20ndash Postponing nuclear power phase-out by 4 to 20 yearsndash Strong CO2 reduction targetsndash Accelerated development of renewable energies
ldquoPricerdquo for more nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
ndash Ambitious energy efficiency improvementsmore nuclear
TPES in Green Scenarios6
TPES in Green Scenarios[Source BMU-Leitstudie DLR December 2010 p 38]
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
7
German Energy Concept 2050 [September 2010]
Political target Base year 2020 2030 2040 2050Political target Base year 2020 2030 2040 2050
Greenhouse gas emissions 1990 40 55 50 80‐95
Primary energy consumption 2008 20 50
Energy productivity 21 pa
Power consumption 2008 10 25
CHP electricity share 25 ldquoPricerdquo for CHP electricity share 25
Heat demand of building stock 2008 10
Primary energy in building stock 80
more nuclear
Modernization rate of buildings 2 pa
Final energy in transportation 2005 20 40
Number of electric vehicles 1 Mio 6 MioNumber of electric vehicles 1 Mio 6 Mio
REN share in energy consumption 18 30 45 60
REN electricity share 35 50 65 80
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
REN electricity share 35 50 65 80
8
Nuclear Phase-out after Fukushima (11 Mars 2011)
bull March 15 2011 Federal government decree toMarch 15 2011 Federal government decree to immediately shut-down 8rsquo800 MW nuclear power (7 NPP + Kruumlmmel) for tree months
April J ne 2011 ldquoEthic Commissionrdquo itho t energbull AprilndashJune 2011 ldquoEthic Commissionrdquo without energy experts under the presidency of Klaus Toumlpfer
bull Conclusion ldquoDer Ausstieg ist noumltig und wird empfohlenrdquog g p
bull July 2011 Parliamentary decision of a package of energy law amendmentsndash Definitive shut-down of the 7+1 NPPndash Remaining 9 NPP (12rsquo700 MW) shall be closed
until 2022ndash Accelerated transmission grid investmentsndash EEG amendment (direct sales of EEG electricity)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Energiewende = Energy Concept 2050 plus nuclear phase-out
9
Agenda ldquoGerman Energy Policy 2013rdquo
bull Origin and issues of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Targets and conflicts of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Actual challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquondash Will there be enough grid investments until 2022Will there be enough grid investments until 2022ndash What role of lignite power plants (Vattenfall)ndash Is there a need for a capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
10ldquoMagic Trianglerdquo of Energy Policy
pricewuumlrdigkeitCosts of energy servicespricewuumlrdigkeitCosts of energy services
Umweltvertr aumlglichkeitEnvironment (without GHG) Supply security
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
l d d G11
Energy related Land Use in Germany [Data source FNR 2012]
Energy crops (hectare) 2011 2012 2020
Land use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 MioLand use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 Mio
Thereof for bio fuels 115 Mio 116 Mio 23 Mio
Thereof for bio‐gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 MioThereof for bio gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 Mio
Share of arable land 17 21 36
F th l d i t fFurther land use requirements for bull Onshore‐wind and large PV installationsbull Power transmission linesbull Pumped water storage facilitiesbull Geothermal facilities bio‐methane facilities hellip
( )
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Lignite mines (open pits)
12
Power Generation Capacity [Source UumlNB 2012]
2011 2011Capacities in GW 2011(real)
2011(model) 2012 2013 2014 2015
Installed for generation 1533 1533 1683 1695 1832 1925
Non‐available load 444 603 739 747 836 934
Energencies 56 62 67 62 62 65
Revisios 21 21 20 20 20 20
Reserve for systemservices 46 46 47 48 49 50services
= Secured load 967 801 815 818 861 856
demand 812 812 817 817 817 817
Remaining load 155 ‐11 ‐01 01 44 39
Load incl capacities from 17 2 0 8 1 7 2 2 6 5 6 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
pneighboring countries 172 08 17 22 65 60
13
Ch i thChanges in the Power Plant
P tf li til 2022Portfolio until 2022
ZubauStill‐legung
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
14
Affordability of Electricity
Ability to payAbility‐to‐paybull Number of customers interrupted due to outstanding
electricity and gas paymentsbull Number of customer receiving Social support payments
for their energy purchasesbull Special benefits for energy intensive customersSpecial benefits for energy intensive customers
Willingness‐to‐paybull Special benefits for energy intensive customers (Lobbying)bull Energy efficiency improvementsbull Closures of energy intensive activitiesClosures of energy intensive activitiesbull Own generation (today option for avoiding grid fees REN
levy and electricity taxes)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
15
Revenues from Power Sales [Source Destatis 2012]
546589
61 3
633
60
Billion Euros
39 4 406 415 412 39 38 141
473505
585613
50
39440
408 415 41
39
36
381
37343
30
40
20
10
1991 99 2000 200 20 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010
16
Aggregated Electricity Expenditures 2011
Billion Euros Share Billion Euros Share Total electricity expenditures for final consumers 636 1000Government induced elements 220 345thereofthereof
Electricity tax 72 114Concession fees 22 34REN l 12 3 19 4REN levy 123 194CHP levy 02 03
Government regulated elements 176 277thereoff
Power transmission fees 22 35Power distribution fees 154 242
Market driven elements 240 378thereoff
Market value of REN electricity 44 69
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
y Generation and marketing 196 309
17Decomposition of the REN Levy 20123
6 tkWh527
079052
030 005 004 ‐054 ‐031
‐009 00 ‐002 048
031 012 0035
6 ctkWh
359
3
4
Other effectsVolume effect Price effect1
2
0
1
012
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
cast
erve
nces
ther
013
REN levy 20 So
Wind Onsh
Biom
Wind Offsh Ot So
Wind Onsh
Bio m
Wind Offsh Ot
price Forec
quidity
rese
N preferen Ot
REN levy 20
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
R W W W W
DA‐
Liq
RE
R
S l 202018
REN Levy Scenarios until 2020 [Source EWI 2012 BMU 2009-2011 IE Leipzig 2012 r2b 2012 Erdmann 2012]
80
90 ctkWh
60
70 BMU forecast May 2013
40
50
20
30
00
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
G C f f ll19
Generation Cost of PV Roof Installations [800-1000 kWhkWpa Interest rate =5-8]
Power price
100
120generation cost [ctkWh ]
60
80
40
60 PV generation cost
0
20
4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Household electricity price (incl VAT)
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Source Johannes Henkel and Lars Dittmar 2011
20
Selection of Inconsistencies
bull Immature technologies for mass market deploymentbull Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind batteries CAES power‐to‐gas hellip)
bull European national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020
bull Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings
bull Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings
bull Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumption
E l i i it i i d ffi ibull Energy only pricing capacity pricing and energy efficiency
bull Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission lines
Marginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
5
(Nuclear) Energy Policy in Germany
bull Autumn 2009 After a pro nuclear campaign Merkelbull Autumn 2009 After a pro-nuclear campaign Merkel became reelected and replaced Social-democrats by the Liberal party as junior partner
bull But the modification of the Nuclear Energy Act (AtG) was postponed until the state elections in North Rhine Westphalia (NRW)
bull May 2010 The ruling parties (Christian-democrats and Liberals) lost the NRW elections
bull In spite of the problems with the Euro the Federal Government asked energy researchers to develop green energy scenarios with
P t i l h t b 4 t 20ndash Postponing nuclear power phase-out by 4 to 20 yearsndash Strong CO2 reduction targetsndash Accelerated development of renewable energies
ldquoPricerdquo for more nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
ndash Ambitious energy efficiency improvementsmore nuclear
TPES in Green Scenarios6
TPES in Green Scenarios[Source BMU-Leitstudie DLR December 2010 p 38]
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
7
German Energy Concept 2050 [September 2010]
Political target Base year 2020 2030 2040 2050Political target Base year 2020 2030 2040 2050
Greenhouse gas emissions 1990 40 55 50 80‐95
Primary energy consumption 2008 20 50
Energy productivity 21 pa
Power consumption 2008 10 25
CHP electricity share 25 ldquoPricerdquo for CHP electricity share 25
Heat demand of building stock 2008 10
Primary energy in building stock 80
more nuclear
Modernization rate of buildings 2 pa
Final energy in transportation 2005 20 40
Number of electric vehicles 1 Mio 6 MioNumber of electric vehicles 1 Mio 6 Mio
REN share in energy consumption 18 30 45 60
REN electricity share 35 50 65 80
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
REN electricity share 35 50 65 80
8
Nuclear Phase-out after Fukushima (11 Mars 2011)
bull March 15 2011 Federal government decree toMarch 15 2011 Federal government decree to immediately shut-down 8rsquo800 MW nuclear power (7 NPP + Kruumlmmel) for tree months
April J ne 2011 ldquoEthic Commissionrdquo itho t energbull AprilndashJune 2011 ldquoEthic Commissionrdquo without energy experts under the presidency of Klaus Toumlpfer
bull Conclusion ldquoDer Ausstieg ist noumltig und wird empfohlenrdquog g p
bull July 2011 Parliamentary decision of a package of energy law amendmentsndash Definitive shut-down of the 7+1 NPPndash Remaining 9 NPP (12rsquo700 MW) shall be closed
until 2022ndash Accelerated transmission grid investmentsndash EEG amendment (direct sales of EEG electricity)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Energiewende = Energy Concept 2050 plus nuclear phase-out
9
Agenda ldquoGerman Energy Policy 2013rdquo
bull Origin and issues of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Targets and conflicts of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Actual challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquondash Will there be enough grid investments until 2022Will there be enough grid investments until 2022ndash What role of lignite power plants (Vattenfall)ndash Is there a need for a capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
10ldquoMagic Trianglerdquo of Energy Policy
pricewuumlrdigkeitCosts of energy servicespricewuumlrdigkeitCosts of energy services
Umweltvertr aumlglichkeitEnvironment (without GHG) Supply security
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
l d d G11
Energy related Land Use in Germany [Data source FNR 2012]
Energy crops (hectare) 2011 2012 2020
Land use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 MioLand use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 Mio
Thereof for bio fuels 115 Mio 116 Mio 23 Mio
Thereof for bio‐gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 MioThereof for bio gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 Mio
Share of arable land 17 21 36
F th l d i t fFurther land use requirements for bull Onshore‐wind and large PV installationsbull Power transmission linesbull Pumped water storage facilitiesbull Geothermal facilities bio‐methane facilities hellip
( )
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Lignite mines (open pits)
12
Power Generation Capacity [Source UumlNB 2012]
2011 2011Capacities in GW 2011(real)
2011(model) 2012 2013 2014 2015
Installed for generation 1533 1533 1683 1695 1832 1925
Non‐available load 444 603 739 747 836 934
Energencies 56 62 67 62 62 65
Revisios 21 21 20 20 20 20
Reserve for systemservices 46 46 47 48 49 50services
= Secured load 967 801 815 818 861 856
demand 812 812 817 817 817 817
Remaining load 155 ‐11 ‐01 01 44 39
Load incl capacities from 17 2 0 8 1 7 2 2 6 5 6 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
pneighboring countries 172 08 17 22 65 60
13
Ch i thChanges in the Power Plant
P tf li til 2022Portfolio until 2022
ZubauStill‐legung
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
14
Affordability of Electricity
Ability to payAbility‐to‐paybull Number of customers interrupted due to outstanding
electricity and gas paymentsbull Number of customer receiving Social support payments
for their energy purchasesbull Special benefits for energy intensive customersSpecial benefits for energy intensive customers
Willingness‐to‐paybull Special benefits for energy intensive customers (Lobbying)bull Energy efficiency improvementsbull Closures of energy intensive activitiesClosures of energy intensive activitiesbull Own generation (today option for avoiding grid fees REN
levy and electricity taxes)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
15
Revenues from Power Sales [Source Destatis 2012]
546589
61 3
633
60
Billion Euros
39 4 406 415 412 39 38 141
473505
585613
50
39440
408 415 41
39
36
381
37343
30
40
20
10
1991 99 2000 200 20 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010
16
Aggregated Electricity Expenditures 2011
Billion Euros Share Billion Euros Share Total electricity expenditures for final consumers 636 1000Government induced elements 220 345thereofthereof
Electricity tax 72 114Concession fees 22 34REN l 12 3 19 4REN levy 123 194CHP levy 02 03
Government regulated elements 176 277thereoff
Power transmission fees 22 35Power distribution fees 154 242
Market driven elements 240 378thereoff
Market value of REN electricity 44 69
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
y Generation and marketing 196 309
17Decomposition of the REN Levy 20123
6 tkWh527
079052
030 005 004 ‐054 ‐031
‐009 00 ‐002 048
031 012 0035
6 ctkWh
359
3
4
Other effectsVolume effect Price effect1
2
0
1
012
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
cast
erve
nces
ther
013
REN levy 20 So
Wind Onsh
Biom
Wind Offsh Ot So
Wind Onsh
Bio m
Wind Offsh Ot
price Forec
quidity
rese
N preferen Ot
REN levy 20
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
R W W W W
DA‐
Liq
RE
R
S l 202018
REN Levy Scenarios until 2020 [Source EWI 2012 BMU 2009-2011 IE Leipzig 2012 r2b 2012 Erdmann 2012]
80
90 ctkWh
60
70 BMU forecast May 2013
40
50
20
30
00
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
G C f f ll19
Generation Cost of PV Roof Installations [800-1000 kWhkWpa Interest rate =5-8]
Power price
100
120generation cost [ctkWh ]
60
80
40
60 PV generation cost
0
20
4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Household electricity price (incl VAT)
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Source Johannes Henkel and Lars Dittmar 2011
20
Selection of Inconsistencies
bull Immature technologies for mass market deploymentbull Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind batteries CAES power‐to‐gas hellip)
bull European national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020
bull Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings
bull Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings
bull Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumption
E l i i it i i d ffi ibull Energy only pricing capacity pricing and energy efficiency
bull Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission lines
Marginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
TPES in Green Scenarios6
TPES in Green Scenarios[Source BMU-Leitstudie DLR December 2010 p 38]
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
7
German Energy Concept 2050 [September 2010]
Political target Base year 2020 2030 2040 2050Political target Base year 2020 2030 2040 2050
Greenhouse gas emissions 1990 40 55 50 80‐95
Primary energy consumption 2008 20 50
Energy productivity 21 pa
Power consumption 2008 10 25
CHP electricity share 25 ldquoPricerdquo for CHP electricity share 25
Heat demand of building stock 2008 10
Primary energy in building stock 80
more nuclear
Modernization rate of buildings 2 pa
Final energy in transportation 2005 20 40
Number of electric vehicles 1 Mio 6 MioNumber of electric vehicles 1 Mio 6 Mio
REN share in energy consumption 18 30 45 60
REN electricity share 35 50 65 80
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
REN electricity share 35 50 65 80
8
Nuclear Phase-out after Fukushima (11 Mars 2011)
bull March 15 2011 Federal government decree toMarch 15 2011 Federal government decree to immediately shut-down 8rsquo800 MW nuclear power (7 NPP + Kruumlmmel) for tree months
April J ne 2011 ldquoEthic Commissionrdquo itho t energbull AprilndashJune 2011 ldquoEthic Commissionrdquo without energy experts under the presidency of Klaus Toumlpfer
bull Conclusion ldquoDer Ausstieg ist noumltig und wird empfohlenrdquog g p
bull July 2011 Parliamentary decision of a package of energy law amendmentsndash Definitive shut-down of the 7+1 NPPndash Remaining 9 NPP (12rsquo700 MW) shall be closed
until 2022ndash Accelerated transmission grid investmentsndash EEG amendment (direct sales of EEG electricity)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Energiewende = Energy Concept 2050 plus nuclear phase-out
9
Agenda ldquoGerman Energy Policy 2013rdquo
bull Origin and issues of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Targets and conflicts of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Actual challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquondash Will there be enough grid investments until 2022Will there be enough grid investments until 2022ndash What role of lignite power plants (Vattenfall)ndash Is there a need for a capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
10ldquoMagic Trianglerdquo of Energy Policy
pricewuumlrdigkeitCosts of energy servicespricewuumlrdigkeitCosts of energy services
Umweltvertr aumlglichkeitEnvironment (without GHG) Supply security
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
l d d G11
Energy related Land Use in Germany [Data source FNR 2012]
Energy crops (hectare) 2011 2012 2020
Land use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 MioLand use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 Mio
Thereof for bio fuels 115 Mio 116 Mio 23 Mio
Thereof for bio‐gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 MioThereof for bio gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 Mio
Share of arable land 17 21 36
F th l d i t fFurther land use requirements for bull Onshore‐wind and large PV installationsbull Power transmission linesbull Pumped water storage facilitiesbull Geothermal facilities bio‐methane facilities hellip
( )
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Lignite mines (open pits)
12
Power Generation Capacity [Source UumlNB 2012]
2011 2011Capacities in GW 2011(real)
2011(model) 2012 2013 2014 2015
Installed for generation 1533 1533 1683 1695 1832 1925
Non‐available load 444 603 739 747 836 934
Energencies 56 62 67 62 62 65
Revisios 21 21 20 20 20 20
Reserve for systemservices 46 46 47 48 49 50services
= Secured load 967 801 815 818 861 856
demand 812 812 817 817 817 817
Remaining load 155 ‐11 ‐01 01 44 39
Load incl capacities from 17 2 0 8 1 7 2 2 6 5 6 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
pneighboring countries 172 08 17 22 65 60
13
Ch i thChanges in the Power Plant
P tf li til 2022Portfolio until 2022
ZubauStill‐legung
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
14
Affordability of Electricity
Ability to payAbility‐to‐paybull Number of customers interrupted due to outstanding
electricity and gas paymentsbull Number of customer receiving Social support payments
for their energy purchasesbull Special benefits for energy intensive customersSpecial benefits for energy intensive customers
Willingness‐to‐paybull Special benefits for energy intensive customers (Lobbying)bull Energy efficiency improvementsbull Closures of energy intensive activitiesClosures of energy intensive activitiesbull Own generation (today option for avoiding grid fees REN
levy and electricity taxes)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
15
Revenues from Power Sales [Source Destatis 2012]
546589
61 3
633
60
Billion Euros
39 4 406 415 412 39 38 141
473505
585613
50
39440
408 415 41
39
36
381
37343
30
40
20
10
1991 99 2000 200 20 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010
16
Aggregated Electricity Expenditures 2011
Billion Euros Share Billion Euros Share Total electricity expenditures for final consumers 636 1000Government induced elements 220 345thereofthereof
Electricity tax 72 114Concession fees 22 34REN l 12 3 19 4REN levy 123 194CHP levy 02 03
Government regulated elements 176 277thereoff
Power transmission fees 22 35Power distribution fees 154 242
Market driven elements 240 378thereoff
Market value of REN electricity 44 69
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
y Generation and marketing 196 309
17Decomposition of the REN Levy 20123
6 tkWh527
079052
030 005 004 ‐054 ‐031
‐009 00 ‐002 048
031 012 0035
6 ctkWh
359
3
4
Other effectsVolume effect Price effect1
2
0
1
012
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
cast
erve
nces
ther
013
REN levy 20 So
Wind Onsh
Biom
Wind Offsh Ot So
Wind Onsh
Bio m
Wind Offsh Ot
price Forec
quidity
rese
N preferen Ot
REN levy 20
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
R W W W W
DA‐
Liq
RE
R
S l 202018
REN Levy Scenarios until 2020 [Source EWI 2012 BMU 2009-2011 IE Leipzig 2012 r2b 2012 Erdmann 2012]
80
90 ctkWh
60
70 BMU forecast May 2013
40
50
20
30
00
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
G C f f ll19
Generation Cost of PV Roof Installations [800-1000 kWhkWpa Interest rate =5-8]
Power price
100
120generation cost [ctkWh ]
60
80
40
60 PV generation cost
0
20
4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Household electricity price (incl VAT)
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Source Johannes Henkel and Lars Dittmar 2011
20
Selection of Inconsistencies
bull Immature technologies for mass market deploymentbull Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind batteries CAES power‐to‐gas hellip)
bull European national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020
bull Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings
bull Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings
bull Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumption
E l i i it i i d ffi ibull Energy only pricing capacity pricing and energy efficiency
bull Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission lines
Marginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
7
German Energy Concept 2050 [September 2010]
Political target Base year 2020 2030 2040 2050Political target Base year 2020 2030 2040 2050
Greenhouse gas emissions 1990 40 55 50 80‐95
Primary energy consumption 2008 20 50
Energy productivity 21 pa
Power consumption 2008 10 25
CHP electricity share 25 ldquoPricerdquo for CHP electricity share 25
Heat demand of building stock 2008 10
Primary energy in building stock 80
more nuclear
Modernization rate of buildings 2 pa
Final energy in transportation 2005 20 40
Number of electric vehicles 1 Mio 6 MioNumber of electric vehicles 1 Mio 6 Mio
REN share in energy consumption 18 30 45 60
REN electricity share 35 50 65 80
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
REN electricity share 35 50 65 80
8
Nuclear Phase-out after Fukushima (11 Mars 2011)
bull March 15 2011 Federal government decree toMarch 15 2011 Federal government decree to immediately shut-down 8rsquo800 MW nuclear power (7 NPP + Kruumlmmel) for tree months
April J ne 2011 ldquoEthic Commissionrdquo itho t energbull AprilndashJune 2011 ldquoEthic Commissionrdquo without energy experts under the presidency of Klaus Toumlpfer
bull Conclusion ldquoDer Ausstieg ist noumltig und wird empfohlenrdquog g p
bull July 2011 Parliamentary decision of a package of energy law amendmentsndash Definitive shut-down of the 7+1 NPPndash Remaining 9 NPP (12rsquo700 MW) shall be closed
until 2022ndash Accelerated transmission grid investmentsndash EEG amendment (direct sales of EEG electricity)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Energiewende = Energy Concept 2050 plus nuclear phase-out
9
Agenda ldquoGerman Energy Policy 2013rdquo
bull Origin and issues of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Targets and conflicts of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Actual challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquondash Will there be enough grid investments until 2022Will there be enough grid investments until 2022ndash What role of lignite power plants (Vattenfall)ndash Is there a need for a capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
10ldquoMagic Trianglerdquo of Energy Policy
pricewuumlrdigkeitCosts of energy servicespricewuumlrdigkeitCosts of energy services
Umweltvertr aumlglichkeitEnvironment (without GHG) Supply security
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
l d d G11
Energy related Land Use in Germany [Data source FNR 2012]
Energy crops (hectare) 2011 2012 2020
Land use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 MioLand use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 Mio
Thereof for bio fuels 115 Mio 116 Mio 23 Mio
Thereof for bio‐gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 MioThereof for bio gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 Mio
Share of arable land 17 21 36
F th l d i t fFurther land use requirements for bull Onshore‐wind and large PV installationsbull Power transmission linesbull Pumped water storage facilitiesbull Geothermal facilities bio‐methane facilities hellip
( )
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Lignite mines (open pits)
12
Power Generation Capacity [Source UumlNB 2012]
2011 2011Capacities in GW 2011(real)
2011(model) 2012 2013 2014 2015
Installed for generation 1533 1533 1683 1695 1832 1925
Non‐available load 444 603 739 747 836 934
Energencies 56 62 67 62 62 65
Revisios 21 21 20 20 20 20
Reserve for systemservices 46 46 47 48 49 50services
= Secured load 967 801 815 818 861 856
demand 812 812 817 817 817 817
Remaining load 155 ‐11 ‐01 01 44 39
Load incl capacities from 17 2 0 8 1 7 2 2 6 5 6 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
pneighboring countries 172 08 17 22 65 60
13
Ch i thChanges in the Power Plant
P tf li til 2022Portfolio until 2022
ZubauStill‐legung
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
14
Affordability of Electricity
Ability to payAbility‐to‐paybull Number of customers interrupted due to outstanding
electricity and gas paymentsbull Number of customer receiving Social support payments
for their energy purchasesbull Special benefits for energy intensive customersSpecial benefits for energy intensive customers
Willingness‐to‐paybull Special benefits for energy intensive customers (Lobbying)bull Energy efficiency improvementsbull Closures of energy intensive activitiesClosures of energy intensive activitiesbull Own generation (today option for avoiding grid fees REN
levy and electricity taxes)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
15
Revenues from Power Sales [Source Destatis 2012]
546589
61 3
633
60
Billion Euros
39 4 406 415 412 39 38 141
473505
585613
50
39440
408 415 41
39
36
381
37343
30
40
20
10
1991 99 2000 200 20 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010
16
Aggregated Electricity Expenditures 2011
Billion Euros Share Billion Euros Share Total electricity expenditures for final consumers 636 1000Government induced elements 220 345thereofthereof
Electricity tax 72 114Concession fees 22 34REN l 12 3 19 4REN levy 123 194CHP levy 02 03
Government regulated elements 176 277thereoff
Power transmission fees 22 35Power distribution fees 154 242
Market driven elements 240 378thereoff
Market value of REN electricity 44 69
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
y Generation and marketing 196 309
17Decomposition of the REN Levy 20123
6 tkWh527
079052
030 005 004 ‐054 ‐031
‐009 00 ‐002 048
031 012 0035
6 ctkWh
359
3
4
Other effectsVolume effect Price effect1
2
0
1
012
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
cast
erve
nces
ther
013
REN levy 20 So
Wind Onsh
Biom
Wind Offsh Ot So
Wind Onsh
Bio m
Wind Offsh Ot
price Forec
quidity
rese
N preferen Ot
REN levy 20
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
R W W W W
DA‐
Liq
RE
R
S l 202018
REN Levy Scenarios until 2020 [Source EWI 2012 BMU 2009-2011 IE Leipzig 2012 r2b 2012 Erdmann 2012]
80
90 ctkWh
60
70 BMU forecast May 2013
40
50
20
30
00
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
G C f f ll19
Generation Cost of PV Roof Installations [800-1000 kWhkWpa Interest rate =5-8]
Power price
100
120generation cost [ctkWh ]
60
80
40
60 PV generation cost
0
20
4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Household electricity price (incl VAT)
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Source Johannes Henkel and Lars Dittmar 2011
20
Selection of Inconsistencies
bull Immature technologies for mass market deploymentbull Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind batteries CAES power‐to‐gas hellip)
bull European national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020
bull Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings
bull Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings
bull Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumption
E l i i it i i d ffi ibull Energy only pricing capacity pricing and energy efficiency
bull Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission lines
Marginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
8
Nuclear Phase-out after Fukushima (11 Mars 2011)
bull March 15 2011 Federal government decree toMarch 15 2011 Federal government decree to immediately shut-down 8rsquo800 MW nuclear power (7 NPP + Kruumlmmel) for tree months
April J ne 2011 ldquoEthic Commissionrdquo itho t energbull AprilndashJune 2011 ldquoEthic Commissionrdquo without energy experts under the presidency of Klaus Toumlpfer
bull Conclusion ldquoDer Ausstieg ist noumltig und wird empfohlenrdquog g p
bull July 2011 Parliamentary decision of a package of energy law amendmentsndash Definitive shut-down of the 7+1 NPPndash Remaining 9 NPP (12rsquo700 MW) shall be closed
until 2022ndash Accelerated transmission grid investmentsndash EEG amendment (direct sales of EEG electricity)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Energiewende = Energy Concept 2050 plus nuclear phase-out
9
Agenda ldquoGerman Energy Policy 2013rdquo
bull Origin and issues of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Targets and conflicts of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Actual challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquondash Will there be enough grid investments until 2022Will there be enough grid investments until 2022ndash What role of lignite power plants (Vattenfall)ndash Is there a need for a capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
10ldquoMagic Trianglerdquo of Energy Policy
pricewuumlrdigkeitCosts of energy servicespricewuumlrdigkeitCosts of energy services
Umweltvertr aumlglichkeitEnvironment (without GHG) Supply security
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
l d d G11
Energy related Land Use in Germany [Data source FNR 2012]
Energy crops (hectare) 2011 2012 2020
Land use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 MioLand use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 Mio
Thereof for bio fuels 115 Mio 116 Mio 23 Mio
Thereof for bio‐gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 MioThereof for bio gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 Mio
Share of arable land 17 21 36
F th l d i t fFurther land use requirements for bull Onshore‐wind and large PV installationsbull Power transmission linesbull Pumped water storage facilitiesbull Geothermal facilities bio‐methane facilities hellip
( )
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Lignite mines (open pits)
12
Power Generation Capacity [Source UumlNB 2012]
2011 2011Capacities in GW 2011(real)
2011(model) 2012 2013 2014 2015
Installed for generation 1533 1533 1683 1695 1832 1925
Non‐available load 444 603 739 747 836 934
Energencies 56 62 67 62 62 65
Revisios 21 21 20 20 20 20
Reserve for systemservices 46 46 47 48 49 50services
= Secured load 967 801 815 818 861 856
demand 812 812 817 817 817 817
Remaining load 155 ‐11 ‐01 01 44 39
Load incl capacities from 17 2 0 8 1 7 2 2 6 5 6 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
pneighboring countries 172 08 17 22 65 60
13
Ch i thChanges in the Power Plant
P tf li til 2022Portfolio until 2022
ZubauStill‐legung
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
14
Affordability of Electricity
Ability to payAbility‐to‐paybull Number of customers interrupted due to outstanding
electricity and gas paymentsbull Number of customer receiving Social support payments
for their energy purchasesbull Special benefits for energy intensive customersSpecial benefits for energy intensive customers
Willingness‐to‐paybull Special benefits for energy intensive customers (Lobbying)bull Energy efficiency improvementsbull Closures of energy intensive activitiesClosures of energy intensive activitiesbull Own generation (today option for avoiding grid fees REN
levy and electricity taxes)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
15
Revenues from Power Sales [Source Destatis 2012]
546589
61 3
633
60
Billion Euros
39 4 406 415 412 39 38 141
473505
585613
50
39440
408 415 41
39
36
381
37343
30
40
20
10
1991 99 2000 200 20 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010
16
Aggregated Electricity Expenditures 2011
Billion Euros Share Billion Euros Share Total electricity expenditures for final consumers 636 1000Government induced elements 220 345thereofthereof
Electricity tax 72 114Concession fees 22 34REN l 12 3 19 4REN levy 123 194CHP levy 02 03
Government regulated elements 176 277thereoff
Power transmission fees 22 35Power distribution fees 154 242
Market driven elements 240 378thereoff
Market value of REN electricity 44 69
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
y Generation and marketing 196 309
17Decomposition of the REN Levy 20123
6 tkWh527
079052
030 005 004 ‐054 ‐031
‐009 00 ‐002 048
031 012 0035
6 ctkWh
359
3
4
Other effectsVolume effect Price effect1
2
0
1
012
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
cast
erve
nces
ther
013
REN levy 20 So
Wind Onsh
Biom
Wind Offsh Ot So
Wind Onsh
Bio m
Wind Offsh Ot
price Forec
quidity
rese
N preferen Ot
REN levy 20
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
R W W W W
DA‐
Liq
RE
R
S l 202018
REN Levy Scenarios until 2020 [Source EWI 2012 BMU 2009-2011 IE Leipzig 2012 r2b 2012 Erdmann 2012]
80
90 ctkWh
60
70 BMU forecast May 2013
40
50
20
30
00
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
G C f f ll19
Generation Cost of PV Roof Installations [800-1000 kWhkWpa Interest rate =5-8]
Power price
100
120generation cost [ctkWh ]
60
80
40
60 PV generation cost
0
20
4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Household electricity price (incl VAT)
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Source Johannes Henkel and Lars Dittmar 2011
20
Selection of Inconsistencies
bull Immature technologies for mass market deploymentbull Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind batteries CAES power‐to‐gas hellip)
bull European national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020
bull Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings
bull Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings
bull Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumption
E l i i it i i d ffi ibull Energy only pricing capacity pricing and energy efficiency
bull Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission lines
Marginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
9
Agenda ldquoGerman Energy Policy 2013rdquo
bull Origin and issues of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Targets and conflicts of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Actual challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquondash Will there be enough grid investments until 2022Will there be enough grid investments until 2022ndash What role of lignite power plants (Vattenfall)ndash Is there a need for a capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
10ldquoMagic Trianglerdquo of Energy Policy
pricewuumlrdigkeitCosts of energy servicespricewuumlrdigkeitCosts of energy services
Umweltvertr aumlglichkeitEnvironment (without GHG) Supply security
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
l d d G11
Energy related Land Use in Germany [Data source FNR 2012]
Energy crops (hectare) 2011 2012 2020
Land use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 MioLand use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 Mio
Thereof for bio fuels 115 Mio 116 Mio 23 Mio
Thereof for bio‐gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 MioThereof for bio gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 Mio
Share of arable land 17 21 36
F th l d i t fFurther land use requirements for bull Onshore‐wind and large PV installationsbull Power transmission linesbull Pumped water storage facilitiesbull Geothermal facilities bio‐methane facilities hellip
( )
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Lignite mines (open pits)
12
Power Generation Capacity [Source UumlNB 2012]
2011 2011Capacities in GW 2011(real)
2011(model) 2012 2013 2014 2015
Installed for generation 1533 1533 1683 1695 1832 1925
Non‐available load 444 603 739 747 836 934
Energencies 56 62 67 62 62 65
Revisios 21 21 20 20 20 20
Reserve for systemservices 46 46 47 48 49 50services
= Secured load 967 801 815 818 861 856
demand 812 812 817 817 817 817
Remaining load 155 ‐11 ‐01 01 44 39
Load incl capacities from 17 2 0 8 1 7 2 2 6 5 6 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
pneighboring countries 172 08 17 22 65 60
13
Ch i thChanges in the Power Plant
P tf li til 2022Portfolio until 2022
ZubauStill‐legung
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
14
Affordability of Electricity
Ability to payAbility‐to‐paybull Number of customers interrupted due to outstanding
electricity and gas paymentsbull Number of customer receiving Social support payments
for their energy purchasesbull Special benefits for energy intensive customersSpecial benefits for energy intensive customers
Willingness‐to‐paybull Special benefits for energy intensive customers (Lobbying)bull Energy efficiency improvementsbull Closures of energy intensive activitiesClosures of energy intensive activitiesbull Own generation (today option for avoiding grid fees REN
levy and electricity taxes)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
15
Revenues from Power Sales [Source Destatis 2012]
546589
61 3
633
60
Billion Euros
39 4 406 415 412 39 38 141
473505
585613
50
39440
408 415 41
39
36
381
37343
30
40
20
10
1991 99 2000 200 20 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010
16
Aggregated Electricity Expenditures 2011
Billion Euros Share Billion Euros Share Total electricity expenditures for final consumers 636 1000Government induced elements 220 345thereofthereof
Electricity tax 72 114Concession fees 22 34REN l 12 3 19 4REN levy 123 194CHP levy 02 03
Government regulated elements 176 277thereoff
Power transmission fees 22 35Power distribution fees 154 242
Market driven elements 240 378thereoff
Market value of REN electricity 44 69
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
y Generation and marketing 196 309
17Decomposition of the REN Levy 20123
6 tkWh527
079052
030 005 004 ‐054 ‐031
‐009 00 ‐002 048
031 012 0035
6 ctkWh
359
3
4
Other effectsVolume effect Price effect1
2
0
1
012
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
cast
erve
nces
ther
013
REN levy 20 So
Wind Onsh
Biom
Wind Offsh Ot So
Wind Onsh
Bio m
Wind Offsh Ot
price Forec
quidity
rese
N preferen Ot
REN levy 20
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
R W W W W
DA‐
Liq
RE
R
S l 202018
REN Levy Scenarios until 2020 [Source EWI 2012 BMU 2009-2011 IE Leipzig 2012 r2b 2012 Erdmann 2012]
80
90 ctkWh
60
70 BMU forecast May 2013
40
50
20
30
00
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
G C f f ll19
Generation Cost of PV Roof Installations [800-1000 kWhkWpa Interest rate =5-8]
Power price
100
120generation cost [ctkWh ]
60
80
40
60 PV generation cost
0
20
4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Household electricity price (incl VAT)
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Source Johannes Henkel and Lars Dittmar 2011
20
Selection of Inconsistencies
bull Immature technologies for mass market deploymentbull Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind batteries CAES power‐to‐gas hellip)
bull European national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020
bull Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings
bull Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings
bull Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumption
E l i i it i i d ffi ibull Energy only pricing capacity pricing and energy efficiency
bull Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission lines
Marginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
10ldquoMagic Trianglerdquo of Energy Policy
pricewuumlrdigkeitCosts of energy servicespricewuumlrdigkeitCosts of energy services
Umweltvertr aumlglichkeitEnvironment (without GHG) Supply security
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
l d d G11
Energy related Land Use in Germany [Data source FNR 2012]
Energy crops (hectare) 2011 2012 2020
Land use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 MioLand use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 Mio
Thereof for bio fuels 115 Mio 116 Mio 23 Mio
Thereof for bio‐gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 MioThereof for bio gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 Mio
Share of arable land 17 21 36
F th l d i t fFurther land use requirements for bull Onshore‐wind and large PV installationsbull Power transmission linesbull Pumped water storage facilitiesbull Geothermal facilities bio‐methane facilities hellip
( )
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Lignite mines (open pits)
12
Power Generation Capacity [Source UumlNB 2012]
2011 2011Capacities in GW 2011(real)
2011(model) 2012 2013 2014 2015
Installed for generation 1533 1533 1683 1695 1832 1925
Non‐available load 444 603 739 747 836 934
Energencies 56 62 67 62 62 65
Revisios 21 21 20 20 20 20
Reserve for systemservices 46 46 47 48 49 50services
= Secured load 967 801 815 818 861 856
demand 812 812 817 817 817 817
Remaining load 155 ‐11 ‐01 01 44 39
Load incl capacities from 17 2 0 8 1 7 2 2 6 5 6 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
pneighboring countries 172 08 17 22 65 60
13
Ch i thChanges in the Power Plant
P tf li til 2022Portfolio until 2022
ZubauStill‐legung
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
14
Affordability of Electricity
Ability to payAbility‐to‐paybull Number of customers interrupted due to outstanding
electricity and gas paymentsbull Number of customer receiving Social support payments
for their energy purchasesbull Special benefits for energy intensive customersSpecial benefits for energy intensive customers
Willingness‐to‐paybull Special benefits for energy intensive customers (Lobbying)bull Energy efficiency improvementsbull Closures of energy intensive activitiesClosures of energy intensive activitiesbull Own generation (today option for avoiding grid fees REN
levy and electricity taxes)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
15
Revenues from Power Sales [Source Destatis 2012]
546589
61 3
633
60
Billion Euros
39 4 406 415 412 39 38 141
473505
585613
50
39440
408 415 41
39
36
381
37343
30
40
20
10
1991 99 2000 200 20 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010
16
Aggregated Electricity Expenditures 2011
Billion Euros Share Billion Euros Share Total electricity expenditures for final consumers 636 1000Government induced elements 220 345thereofthereof
Electricity tax 72 114Concession fees 22 34REN l 12 3 19 4REN levy 123 194CHP levy 02 03
Government regulated elements 176 277thereoff
Power transmission fees 22 35Power distribution fees 154 242
Market driven elements 240 378thereoff
Market value of REN electricity 44 69
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
y Generation and marketing 196 309
17Decomposition of the REN Levy 20123
6 tkWh527
079052
030 005 004 ‐054 ‐031
‐009 00 ‐002 048
031 012 0035
6 ctkWh
359
3
4
Other effectsVolume effect Price effect1
2
0
1
012
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
cast
erve
nces
ther
013
REN levy 20 So
Wind Onsh
Biom
Wind Offsh Ot So
Wind Onsh
Bio m
Wind Offsh Ot
price Forec
quidity
rese
N preferen Ot
REN levy 20
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
R W W W W
DA‐
Liq
RE
R
S l 202018
REN Levy Scenarios until 2020 [Source EWI 2012 BMU 2009-2011 IE Leipzig 2012 r2b 2012 Erdmann 2012]
80
90 ctkWh
60
70 BMU forecast May 2013
40
50
20
30
00
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
G C f f ll19
Generation Cost of PV Roof Installations [800-1000 kWhkWpa Interest rate =5-8]
Power price
100
120generation cost [ctkWh ]
60
80
40
60 PV generation cost
0
20
4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Household electricity price (incl VAT)
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Source Johannes Henkel and Lars Dittmar 2011
20
Selection of Inconsistencies
bull Immature technologies for mass market deploymentbull Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind batteries CAES power‐to‐gas hellip)
bull European national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020
bull Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings
bull Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings
bull Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumption
E l i i it i i d ffi ibull Energy only pricing capacity pricing and energy efficiency
bull Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission lines
Marginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
l d d G11
Energy related Land Use in Germany [Data source FNR 2012]
Energy crops (hectare) 2011 2012 2020
Land use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 MioLand use for energy crops 206 Mio 253 Mio 44 Mio
Thereof for bio fuels 115 Mio 116 Mio 23 Mio
Thereof for bio‐gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 MioThereof for bio gas 090 Mio 096 Mio 21 Mio
Share of arable land 17 21 36
F th l d i t fFurther land use requirements for bull Onshore‐wind and large PV installationsbull Power transmission linesbull Pumped water storage facilitiesbull Geothermal facilities bio‐methane facilities hellip
( )
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Lignite mines (open pits)
12
Power Generation Capacity [Source UumlNB 2012]
2011 2011Capacities in GW 2011(real)
2011(model) 2012 2013 2014 2015
Installed for generation 1533 1533 1683 1695 1832 1925
Non‐available load 444 603 739 747 836 934
Energencies 56 62 67 62 62 65
Revisios 21 21 20 20 20 20
Reserve for systemservices 46 46 47 48 49 50services
= Secured load 967 801 815 818 861 856
demand 812 812 817 817 817 817
Remaining load 155 ‐11 ‐01 01 44 39
Load incl capacities from 17 2 0 8 1 7 2 2 6 5 6 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
pneighboring countries 172 08 17 22 65 60
13
Ch i thChanges in the Power Plant
P tf li til 2022Portfolio until 2022
ZubauStill‐legung
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
14
Affordability of Electricity
Ability to payAbility‐to‐paybull Number of customers interrupted due to outstanding
electricity and gas paymentsbull Number of customer receiving Social support payments
for their energy purchasesbull Special benefits for energy intensive customersSpecial benefits for energy intensive customers
Willingness‐to‐paybull Special benefits for energy intensive customers (Lobbying)bull Energy efficiency improvementsbull Closures of energy intensive activitiesClosures of energy intensive activitiesbull Own generation (today option for avoiding grid fees REN
levy and electricity taxes)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
15
Revenues from Power Sales [Source Destatis 2012]
546589
61 3
633
60
Billion Euros
39 4 406 415 412 39 38 141
473505
585613
50
39440
408 415 41
39
36
381
37343
30
40
20
10
1991 99 2000 200 20 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010
16
Aggregated Electricity Expenditures 2011
Billion Euros Share Billion Euros Share Total electricity expenditures for final consumers 636 1000Government induced elements 220 345thereofthereof
Electricity tax 72 114Concession fees 22 34REN l 12 3 19 4REN levy 123 194CHP levy 02 03
Government regulated elements 176 277thereoff
Power transmission fees 22 35Power distribution fees 154 242
Market driven elements 240 378thereoff
Market value of REN electricity 44 69
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
y Generation and marketing 196 309
17Decomposition of the REN Levy 20123
6 tkWh527
079052
030 005 004 ‐054 ‐031
‐009 00 ‐002 048
031 012 0035
6 ctkWh
359
3
4
Other effectsVolume effect Price effect1
2
0
1
012
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
cast
erve
nces
ther
013
REN levy 20 So
Wind Onsh
Biom
Wind Offsh Ot So
Wind Onsh
Bio m
Wind Offsh Ot
price Forec
quidity
rese
N preferen Ot
REN levy 20
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
R W W W W
DA‐
Liq
RE
R
S l 202018
REN Levy Scenarios until 2020 [Source EWI 2012 BMU 2009-2011 IE Leipzig 2012 r2b 2012 Erdmann 2012]
80
90 ctkWh
60
70 BMU forecast May 2013
40
50
20
30
00
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
G C f f ll19
Generation Cost of PV Roof Installations [800-1000 kWhkWpa Interest rate =5-8]
Power price
100
120generation cost [ctkWh ]
60
80
40
60 PV generation cost
0
20
4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Household electricity price (incl VAT)
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Source Johannes Henkel and Lars Dittmar 2011
20
Selection of Inconsistencies
bull Immature technologies for mass market deploymentbull Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind batteries CAES power‐to‐gas hellip)
bull European national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020
bull Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings
bull Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings
bull Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumption
E l i i it i i d ffi ibull Energy only pricing capacity pricing and energy efficiency
bull Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission lines
Marginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
12
Power Generation Capacity [Source UumlNB 2012]
2011 2011Capacities in GW 2011(real)
2011(model) 2012 2013 2014 2015
Installed for generation 1533 1533 1683 1695 1832 1925
Non‐available load 444 603 739 747 836 934
Energencies 56 62 67 62 62 65
Revisios 21 21 20 20 20 20
Reserve for systemservices 46 46 47 48 49 50services
= Secured load 967 801 815 818 861 856
demand 812 812 817 817 817 817
Remaining load 155 ‐11 ‐01 01 44 39
Load incl capacities from 17 2 0 8 1 7 2 2 6 5 6 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
pneighboring countries 172 08 17 22 65 60
13
Ch i thChanges in the Power Plant
P tf li til 2022Portfolio until 2022
ZubauStill‐legung
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
14
Affordability of Electricity
Ability to payAbility‐to‐paybull Number of customers interrupted due to outstanding
electricity and gas paymentsbull Number of customer receiving Social support payments
for their energy purchasesbull Special benefits for energy intensive customersSpecial benefits for energy intensive customers
Willingness‐to‐paybull Special benefits for energy intensive customers (Lobbying)bull Energy efficiency improvementsbull Closures of energy intensive activitiesClosures of energy intensive activitiesbull Own generation (today option for avoiding grid fees REN
levy and electricity taxes)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
15
Revenues from Power Sales [Source Destatis 2012]
546589
61 3
633
60
Billion Euros
39 4 406 415 412 39 38 141
473505
585613
50
39440
408 415 41
39
36
381
37343
30
40
20
10
1991 99 2000 200 20 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010
16
Aggregated Electricity Expenditures 2011
Billion Euros Share Billion Euros Share Total electricity expenditures for final consumers 636 1000Government induced elements 220 345thereofthereof
Electricity tax 72 114Concession fees 22 34REN l 12 3 19 4REN levy 123 194CHP levy 02 03
Government regulated elements 176 277thereoff
Power transmission fees 22 35Power distribution fees 154 242
Market driven elements 240 378thereoff
Market value of REN electricity 44 69
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
y Generation and marketing 196 309
17Decomposition of the REN Levy 20123
6 tkWh527
079052
030 005 004 ‐054 ‐031
‐009 00 ‐002 048
031 012 0035
6 ctkWh
359
3
4
Other effectsVolume effect Price effect1
2
0
1
012
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
cast
erve
nces
ther
013
REN levy 20 So
Wind Onsh
Biom
Wind Offsh Ot So
Wind Onsh
Bio m
Wind Offsh Ot
price Forec
quidity
rese
N preferen Ot
REN levy 20
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
R W W W W
DA‐
Liq
RE
R
S l 202018
REN Levy Scenarios until 2020 [Source EWI 2012 BMU 2009-2011 IE Leipzig 2012 r2b 2012 Erdmann 2012]
80
90 ctkWh
60
70 BMU forecast May 2013
40
50
20
30
00
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
G C f f ll19
Generation Cost of PV Roof Installations [800-1000 kWhkWpa Interest rate =5-8]
Power price
100
120generation cost [ctkWh ]
60
80
40
60 PV generation cost
0
20
4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Household electricity price (incl VAT)
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Source Johannes Henkel and Lars Dittmar 2011
20
Selection of Inconsistencies
bull Immature technologies for mass market deploymentbull Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind batteries CAES power‐to‐gas hellip)
bull European national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020
bull Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings
bull Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings
bull Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumption
E l i i it i i d ffi ibull Energy only pricing capacity pricing and energy efficiency
bull Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission lines
Marginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
13
Ch i thChanges in the Power Plant
P tf li til 2022Portfolio until 2022
ZubauStill‐legung
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
14
Affordability of Electricity
Ability to payAbility‐to‐paybull Number of customers interrupted due to outstanding
electricity and gas paymentsbull Number of customer receiving Social support payments
for their energy purchasesbull Special benefits for energy intensive customersSpecial benefits for energy intensive customers
Willingness‐to‐paybull Special benefits for energy intensive customers (Lobbying)bull Energy efficiency improvementsbull Closures of energy intensive activitiesClosures of energy intensive activitiesbull Own generation (today option for avoiding grid fees REN
levy and electricity taxes)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
15
Revenues from Power Sales [Source Destatis 2012]
546589
61 3
633
60
Billion Euros
39 4 406 415 412 39 38 141
473505
585613
50
39440
408 415 41
39
36
381
37343
30
40
20
10
1991 99 2000 200 20 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010
16
Aggregated Electricity Expenditures 2011
Billion Euros Share Billion Euros Share Total electricity expenditures for final consumers 636 1000Government induced elements 220 345thereofthereof
Electricity tax 72 114Concession fees 22 34REN l 12 3 19 4REN levy 123 194CHP levy 02 03
Government regulated elements 176 277thereoff
Power transmission fees 22 35Power distribution fees 154 242
Market driven elements 240 378thereoff
Market value of REN electricity 44 69
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
y Generation and marketing 196 309
17Decomposition of the REN Levy 20123
6 tkWh527
079052
030 005 004 ‐054 ‐031
‐009 00 ‐002 048
031 012 0035
6 ctkWh
359
3
4
Other effectsVolume effect Price effect1
2
0
1
012
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
cast
erve
nces
ther
013
REN levy 20 So
Wind Onsh
Biom
Wind Offsh Ot So
Wind Onsh
Bio m
Wind Offsh Ot
price Forec
quidity
rese
N preferen Ot
REN levy 20
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
R W W W W
DA‐
Liq
RE
R
S l 202018
REN Levy Scenarios until 2020 [Source EWI 2012 BMU 2009-2011 IE Leipzig 2012 r2b 2012 Erdmann 2012]
80
90 ctkWh
60
70 BMU forecast May 2013
40
50
20
30
00
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
G C f f ll19
Generation Cost of PV Roof Installations [800-1000 kWhkWpa Interest rate =5-8]
Power price
100
120generation cost [ctkWh ]
60
80
40
60 PV generation cost
0
20
4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Household electricity price (incl VAT)
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Source Johannes Henkel and Lars Dittmar 2011
20
Selection of Inconsistencies
bull Immature technologies for mass market deploymentbull Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind batteries CAES power‐to‐gas hellip)
bull European national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020
bull Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings
bull Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings
bull Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumption
E l i i it i i d ffi ibull Energy only pricing capacity pricing and energy efficiency
bull Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission lines
Marginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
14
Affordability of Electricity
Ability to payAbility‐to‐paybull Number of customers interrupted due to outstanding
electricity and gas paymentsbull Number of customer receiving Social support payments
for their energy purchasesbull Special benefits for energy intensive customersSpecial benefits for energy intensive customers
Willingness‐to‐paybull Special benefits for energy intensive customers (Lobbying)bull Energy efficiency improvementsbull Closures of energy intensive activitiesClosures of energy intensive activitiesbull Own generation (today option for avoiding grid fees REN
levy and electricity taxes)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
15
Revenues from Power Sales [Source Destatis 2012]
546589
61 3
633
60
Billion Euros
39 4 406 415 412 39 38 141
473505
585613
50
39440
408 415 41
39
36
381
37343
30
40
20
10
1991 99 2000 200 20 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010
16
Aggregated Electricity Expenditures 2011
Billion Euros Share Billion Euros Share Total electricity expenditures for final consumers 636 1000Government induced elements 220 345thereofthereof
Electricity tax 72 114Concession fees 22 34REN l 12 3 19 4REN levy 123 194CHP levy 02 03
Government regulated elements 176 277thereoff
Power transmission fees 22 35Power distribution fees 154 242
Market driven elements 240 378thereoff
Market value of REN electricity 44 69
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
y Generation and marketing 196 309
17Decomposition of the REN Levy 20123
6 tkWh527
079052
030 005 004 ‐054 ‐031
‐009 00 ‐002 048
031 012 0035
6 ctkWh
359
3
4
Other effectsVolume effect Price effect1
2
0
1
012
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
cast
erve
nces
ther
013
REN levy 20 So
Wind Onsh
Biom
Wind Offsh Ot So
Wind Onsh
Bio m
Wind Offsh Ot
price Forec
quidity
rese
N preferen Ot
REN levy 20
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
R W W W W
DA‐
Liq
RE
R
S l 202018
REN Levy Scenarios until 2020 [Source EWI 2012 BMU 2009-2011 IE Leipzig 2012 r2b 2012 Erdmann 2012]
80
90 ctkWh
60
70 BMU forecast May 2013
40
50
20
30
00
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
G C f f ll19
Generation Cost of PV Roof Installations [800-1000 kWhkWpa Interest rate =5-8]
Power price
100
120generation cost [ctkWh ]
60
80
40
60 PV generation cost
0
20
4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Household electricity price (incl VAT)
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Source Johannes Henkel and Lars Dittmar 2011
20
Selection of Inconsistencies
bull Immature technologies for mass market deploymentbull Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind batteries CAES power‐to‐gas hellip)
bull European national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020
bull Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings
bull Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings
bull Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumption
E l i i it i i d ffi ibull Energy only pricing capacity pricing and energy efficiency
bull Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission lines
Marginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
15
Revenues from Power Sales [Source Destatis 2012]
546589
61 3
633
60
Billion Euros
39 4 406 415 412 39 38 141
473505
585613
50
39440
408 415 41
39
36
381
37343
30
40
20
10
1991 99 2000 200 20 0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
1991 1995 2000 2005 2010
16
Aggregated Electricity Expenditures 2011
Billion Euros Share Billion Euros Share Total electricity expenditures for final consumers 636 1000Government induced elements 220 345thereofthereof
Electricity tax 72 114Concession fees 22 34REN l 12 3 19 4REN levy 123 194CHP levy 02 03
Government regulated elements 176 277thereoff
Power transmission fees 22 35Power distribution fees 154 242
Market driven elements 240 378thereoff
Market value of REN electricity 44 69
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
y Generation and marketing 196 309
17Decomposition of the REN Levy 20123
6 tkWh527
079052
030 005 004 ‐054 ‐031
‐009 00 ‐002 048
031 012 0035
6 ctkWh
359
3
4
Other effectsVolume effect Price effect1
2
0
1
012
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
cast
erve
nces
ther
013
REN levy 20 So
Wind Onsh
Biom
Wind Offsh Ot So
Wind Onsh
Bio m
Wind Offsh Ot
price Forec
quidity
rese
N preferen Ot
REN levy 20
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
R W W W W
DA‐
Liq
RE
R
S l 202018
REN Levy Scenarios until 2020 [Source EWI 2012 BMU 2009-2011 IE Leipzig 2012 r2b 2012 Erdmann 2012]
80
90 ctkWh
60
70 BMU forecast May 2013
40
50
20
30
00
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
G C f f ll19
Generation Cost of PV Roof Installations [800-1000 kWhkWpa Interest rate =5-8]
Power price
100
120generation cost [ctkWh ]
60
80
40
60 PV generation cost
0
20
4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Household electricity price (incl VAT)
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Source Johannes Henkel and Lars Dittmar 2011
20
Selection of Inconsistencies
bull Immature technologies for mass market deploymentbull Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind batteries CAES power‐to‐gas hellip)
bull European national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020
bull Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings
bull Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings
bull Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumption
E l i i it i i d ffi ibull Energy only pricing capacity pricing and energy efficiency
bull Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission lines
Marginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
16
Aggregated Electricity Expenditures 2011
Billion Euros Share Billion Euros Share Total electricity expenditures for final consumers 636 1000Government induced elements 220 345thereofthereof
Electricity tax 72 114Concession fees 22 34REN l 12 3 19 4REN levy 123 194CHP levy 02 03
Government regulated elements 176 277thereoff
Power transmission fees 22 35Power distribution fees 154 242
Market driven elements 240 378thereoff
Market value of REN electricity 44 69
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
y Generation and marketing 196 309
17Decomposition of the REN Levy 20123
6 tkWh527
079052
030 005 004 ‐054 ‐031
‐009 00 ‐002 048
031 012 0035
6 ctkWh
359
3
4
Other effectsVolume effect Price effect1
2
0
1
012
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
cast
erve
nces
ther
013
REN levy 20 So
Wind Onsh
Biom
Wind Offsh Ot So
Wind Onsh
Bio m
Wind Offsh Ot
price Forec
quidity
rese
N preferen Ot
REN levy 20
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
R W W W W
DA‐
Liq
RE
R
S l 202018
REN Levy Scenarios until 2020 [Source EWI 2012 BMU 2009-2011 IE Leipzig 2012 r2b 2012 Erdmann 2012]
80
90 ctkWh
60
70 BMU forecast May 2013
40
50
20
30
00
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
G C f f ll19
Generation Cost of PV Roof Installations [800-1000 kWhkWpa Interest rate =5-8]
Power price
100
120generation cost [ctkWh ]
60
80
40
60 PV generation cost
0
20
4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Household electricity price (incl VAT)
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Source Johannes Henkel and Lars Dittmar 2011
20
Selection of Inconsistencies
bull Immature technologies for mass market deploymentbull Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind batteries CAES power‐to‐gas hellip)
bull European national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020
bull Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings
bull Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings
bull Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumption
E l i i it i i d ffi ibull Energy only pricing capacity pricing and energy efficiency
bull Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission lines
Marginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
17Decomposition of the REN Levy 20123
6 tkWh527
079052
030 005 004 ‐054 ‐031
‐009 00 ‐002 048
031 012 0035
6 ctkWh
359
3
4
Other effectsVolume effect Price effect1
2
0
1
012
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
olar ore
mass
ore
ther
cast
erve
nces
ther
013
REN levy 20 So
Wind Onsh
Biom
Wind Offsh Ot So
Wind Onsh
Bio m
Wind Offsh Ot
price Forec
quidity
rese
N preferen Ot
REN levy 20
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
R W W W W
DA‐
Liq
RE
R
S l 202018
REN Levy Scenarios until 2020 [Source EWI 2012 BMU 2009-2011 IE Leipzig 2012 r2b 2012 Erdmann 2012]
80
90 ctkWh
60
70 BMU forecast May 2013
40
50
20
30
00
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
G C f f ll19
Generation Cost of PV Roof Installations [800-1000 kWhkWpa Interest rate =5-8]
Power price
100
120generation cost [ctkWh ]
60
80
40
60 PV generation cost
0
20
4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Household electricity price (incl VAT)
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Source Johannes Henkel and Lars Dittmar 2011
20
Selection of Inconsistencies
bull Immature technologies for mass market deploymentbull Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind batteries CAES power‐to‐gas hellip)
bull European national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020
bull Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings
bull Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings
bull Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumption
E l i i it i i d ffi ibull Energy only pricing capacity pricing and energy efficiency
bull Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission lines
Marginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
S l 202018
REN Levy Scenarios until 2020 [Source EWI 2012 BMU 2009-2011 IE Leipzig 2012 r2b 2012 Erdmann 2012]
80
90 ctkWh
60
70 BMU forecast May 2013
40
50
20
30
00
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
G C f f ll19
Generation Cost of PV Roof Installations [800-1000 kWhkWpa Interest rate =5-8]
Power price
100
120generation cost [ctkWh ]
60
80
40
60 PV generation cost
0
20
4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Household electricity price (incl VAT)
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Source Johannes Henkel and Lars Dittmar 2011
20
Selection of Inconsistencies
bull Immature technologies for mass market deploymentbull Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind batteries CAES power‐to‐gas hellip)
bull European national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020
bull Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings
bull Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings
bull Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumption
E l i i it i i d ffi ibull Energy only pricing capacity pricing and energy efficiency
bull Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission lines
Marginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
G C f f ll19
Generation Cost of PV Roof Installations [800-1000 kWhkWpa Interest rate =5-8]
Power price
100
120generation cost [ctkWh ]
60
80
40
60 PV generation cost
0
20
4 4 4 4 4 4 2 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
Household electricity price (incl VAT)
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q1-
Q4
Q2
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Source Johannes Henkel and Lars Dittmar 2011
20
Selection of Inconsistencies
bull Immature technologies for mass market deploymentbull Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind batteries CAES power‐to‐gas hellip)
bull European national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020
bull Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings
bull Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings
bull Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumption
E l i i it i i d ffi ibull Energy only pricing capacity pricing and energy efficiency
bull Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission lines
Marginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
20
Selection of Inconsistencies
bull Immature technologies for mass market deploymentbull Immature technologies for mass market deployment (offshore‐wind batteries CAES power‐to‐gas hellip)
bull European national and regional greenhouse gas d freduction targets for 2020
bull Financial support of CHP versus increased energy efficiency of (old and new) buildingsefficiency of (old and new) buildings
bull Ambitious energy efficiency requirements for new versus weak efficiency incentives for old buildings
bull Expansion of renewable electricity versus reduction targets for electricity consumption
E l i i it i i d ffi ibull Energy only pricing capacity pricing and energy efficiency
bull Land use conflicts with biomass and transmission lines
Marginali ation of nat ral gas (bio methane)
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
bull Marginalization of natural gas (bio‐methane)
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
21
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
G G 201022
Gross Power Generation in Bavaria 2010
49
Nuclear
Coal
103 39 Gas
Other
133
233
Hydro
PV
5762806
66
Wind
Ohter REN
Nuclear
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
Gross Power Generation in23
Gross Power Generation in Baden-Wuumlrttemberg 2010
NuclearNuclear
Coal
28
39
0 3
Gas
Other03
104133
Hydro
PV
550611 3
Wind
Other RENNuclear55 13 Other REN
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
closed
24
N l
opetrating
NuclearPower plants
dand Transmission
G id E t iGrid Extensions
EnLAG 2009
NABEG 20112015
2017
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
25
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
Merit Order of the26
Merit Order of the German Power Plant Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Nuclear LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coal
Hard coa
Hydro Biomass CHP
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
Merit Order of the German Power Plants27
Merit Order of the German Power Plants with Wind and PV Portfolio 2010
Marginal cost [EURMWh]
150
100
Load (wo wind and PV)
50
l al
Hydro Biomass CHP LigniteCCGT Gas
Hard coa
Hard coa
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0Electric load 93 GW
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with28
Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity
100 L d [GW] After nuclear phase‐out phase‐out of coal
80
100 Load [GW] After nuclear phase out phase out of coal
60 Ordered load curve
20
40Ordered residual load curve(without biogas bio‐methane)
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Lignite ge 6000 ha
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
29
Actual Challenges of the ldquoEnergiewenderdquo
bull Will there be enough grid investments until 2022 forndash Shutdown of the remaining nuclear plants ndash Transport of (offshore) wind power to from north to southp ( ) p
bull New role of lignite power plantsndash Merit-Order effectndash GHG emissions
bull Is there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanismIs there a need for a (nation wide or local) capacity mechanism
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
Contribution of Remaining Power Plants30
Contribution of Remaining Power Plantsin the Electricity Supply Scenario for 2030
100 L d [GW]
80
100 Load [GW]
60 Ordered load duration
20
40Ordered residual load withoutbiogas bio‐methane
0
20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
Contribution of conventional power plants
‐20
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
‐40
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
31
Volatility of Wind Power [Source Ehlers 2011 S 100]
Amprion
20000Wind power generation [MW]
AmprionEnBW50Hertz TransmissionTranspower
16000
8 000
12000
Gradient8000 MWh
No capacity contribution
4 000
80008000 co t but o
0
4000
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
112010 3112010
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
Prices and Generation Costs32
Prices and Generation Costs[Prices and Costs of 2012]
120 PV
BiogasAverage prices costs [EuroMWh]
100Wind
80
60Day ahead
New GT
40
Day‐aheadPrice
20
0
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
0
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
33
Tack saring mycket
Tel +49 (030) 314 246 56Fax +49 (030) 314 269 08georgerdmanntu‐berlinde
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
georgerdmannprognoseforumde
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
34
Research Profile of bdquoEnergy Systemsldquo
(Stochastic)
InvestmentsWind and PV
(Stochastic)Systems AnalysisEconometrics hellip
Businessstrategies
Prices
Investments
CCS Regulation power
Markets
g
Energy
InnovationsHydrogen and fuel cells
Socialwelfare
Energy security
Power-to-gas
Energy lawsBio fuels
Competition
Power to gasCO2 allowances
Industrial EconomicsEvolutionary Economics
copy Prof Dr Georg Erdmann
Public Choice hellip
