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© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
Technology Trends To Watch In 2017A new cloud-based cognitive platform emerges Cognitive Systems Institute Presentation Deck
Bill Chamberlin, Distinguished MI Professional / HorizonWatch Community LeaderJanuary 26, 2017
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
Today’s Speakers
2 24Jan2017 MD&I HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2017 (IBM Internal Version)
Bill Chamberlin
Bill Chamberlin is an IBM Distinguished Market Intelligence Professional. Bill works on IBM Corporate Market Development and Insights team where IBM’s internal HorizonWatch trends research program. Bill also serves on the IBM Academy of Technology Leadership Team.
Twitter à @HorizonWatchingLinkedIn à http://www.linkedin.com/in/whchamb
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
About IBM’s HorizonWatch Trends Research Program
§ Active since January 2001
§ Our focus is on learning about and sharing our knowledge on emerging trends, business issues, and technologies so we can:
– Develop better IBM strategies for the future
– Help our clients develop better strategies for the future
3 24Jan2017 MD&I HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2017 (IBM Internal Version)
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
“Segment” Description
2017 Tech Platform Trends These topics are the current core technology growth categories. These are the topics that make up the '3rd IT Platform' and are all topics that our clients are all focused on.
Emerging Tech TrendsThese emerging (typically 2017-2025) tech trend topics are growing in importance. These trends have the potential to be disruptive to current business processes, business models and entire industries.
Longer Range Tech Trends
These trends are longer-range (2025- 2050). They are all interesting and have the potential to disrupt our industry and our client’s businesses. Have ideas on those types of trends?
Vertical Industry Topics As the 'Third Platform' matures, vertical solutions are becoming much more important. Let us know if you see a significant emerging vertical industry solution area trend.
Business Trends Business trends are important to watch as they can enable and accelerate the adoption of technology trends. Let us know if you see a significant emerging trend in business.
Consumer Trends Consumer trends can also enable and accelerate the adoption of technology trends within the enterprise. . Let us know if you see a significant emerging consumer trend.
There are over 120 topics on the current IBM HorizonWatch Trends Radar List
4 24Jan2017 MD&I HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2017 (IBM Internal Version)
"We combine crowdsourcing and secondary research scanning and analysis to identify what is trending"
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
1. Provide context on what we see trending/what trends to be aware of
2. Share our research agenda and focus for 2017– Current Platform - Trends to watch– Emerging Trends - 23 to watch
Objectives of Today’s Call / Agenda
5 24Jan2017 MD&I HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2017 (IBM Internal Version)
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
The current IT Platform (2017) is comprised of the following enabling technologies and capabilities
6 24Jan2017 MD&I HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2017 (IBM Internal Version)
1. Cloud Computing2. AI/Cognitive Computing3. (Modern) System Infrastructure4. Mobile Devices5. Internet of Things6. Security7. Big Data Platforms & Tools 8. Analytic Solutions9. Collaboration Platforms & Tools
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
Like a tree grows from it’s roots, a whole new set of trends will branch out from the cloud-based cognitive platform
7 24Jan2017 MD&I HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2017 (IBM Internal Version)
Examples….1. Conversational Services & Chatbots2. Blockchain3. Robotic Process Automation (RPA)4. Service Robots5. Industrial Robotics6. Robotic Logistics7. Drones8. Driverless Vehicles9. Enterprise Wearables10. Augmented Reality11. Virtual Reality12. Fog (Edge) Computing13. Quantum Computing14. Affective Computing15. Swarm Computing
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
The new IT platform will enable the 4th wave of economic revolution
8 24Jan2017 MD&I HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2017 (IBM Internal Version)
1st 2nd 3rd 4thKey Technologies
Steam Engine Combustion Engine, Electricity
Computers, Internet Cloud, AI, Quantum Computing, Nanotechnology, Blockchain
Key Resource Coal / Iron Steel / Oil Silicon / Nuclear Energy Data, Renewables, Next-Gen Nuclear
Food Crops, Ranches Machinery, Fertilizers, Irrigation
Science, Chemistry, Corporations
3D Printed, Plant based
Clothing Cotton, Power Loom Synthetics Large Retailers Custom, 3D Printed
Transportation Trains, Canals, Ships Bikes, Cars, Buses, Planes
Commercial, Infrastructure, Electrification
On demand, Swarming
Manufacturing Machinery, Tooling, Interchangeable parts
Assembly Line Just in Time, Programmable machines
Intelligent Automation, Robots/Robotics
Healthcare Traditional / Medical Classification
Organic Chemistry, Microbiology
Drug Development, Molecular, DNA
Life enhancement & extension, Bio-Printing
Energy Coal Oil Nuclear Next-Gen Nuclear, Storage
Communication Telegraph / Newspapers
Phone, Radio, Printed Ads
TV, Screens, Internet, SmartPhone, Wireless, Social
Cryptography, AR/VR, Holographic, Photonics
Financial Services
Paper Money, Stock Exchanges
Checks Credit, Funds, Credit Cards, online payments
Blockchain, Digital Currency
Companies / Sectors
Banks, Railways Ford, GM, US Steel, GE, Chrysler, Standard Oil, Amoco, CBS, AT&T
Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Comcast, Cisco, Facebook, IBM, Intel, Microsoft, Samsung
?? ?? ??
Source: Morgan Stanley: Technology: Disruptions and productivity growth in the next decade of the digital revolution, MD&I HorizonWatch
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
9 24Jan2017 MD&I HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2017 (IBM Internal Version)
Industrial Intelligent Automation will be enabled by IoT, Cognitive/AI, Analytics, Intelligent Machines and Assembly Lines, Robots and Robotics, Edge (Fog) Computing and Swarming Technology
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
We are seeing an increased number of robots designed for industry specific applications
24Jan2017 MD&I HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2017 (IBM Internal Version)
Connie (Concierge)
Tug (Hospitals)Fetch (warehouse)Botlr (Hotel supplies)
Robonaut (NASA)
Kompaï (elder care)
10
Tally (Retail) LoweBot (Retail)
Molly (Kitchen)
Pepper (emotion detection / advisor) Baxter (repetitive tasks)
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
The future of farming involves robots and drones
HorizonWatch: Internet of Things and the Future of Work (External Version)April 22, 2016
Hortibot (weeding)
Bonirob (weeding & fertilizing)
LettuceBot (thinning)
Precision Farming
Yamaha RMAX (Fertilizing)
Image sources: see speaker notes
11
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
12 24Jan2017 MD&I HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2017 (IBM Internal Version)
Technologies such as IoT, Cognitive/AI, analytics, advanced vehicle communications, edge (fog) computing and swarming technology, will enable driverless on-demand vehicles… virtually eliminating accidents, reducing congestion and pollution, while increasing productivity.
Source: US Department of Transportation
Intelligent Automated Transportation Systems
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
Driverless cars get all the press but think about all the other autonomous transportation vehicles that are coming…
24Jan2017 MD&I HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2017 (IBM Internal Version)
Semi’s Construction Equipment
Cargo Ships
Cargo Planes
TrainsDelivery vehicles
13
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
14 24Jan2017 MD&I HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2017 (IBM Internal Version)
The future of air transportation will be autonomous and on demand. Enabling technologies will include IoT, AI, Cloud, Fog Computing, Swarming Technology, Quantum Computing technology.
Companies to watch: • Uber• Airbus• Kitty Hawk / Zee.Aero• Joby Aviation• Urban Aeronautics• Lilium Aviation• AeroMobile• Volocopter
Image by: Chris J Magdalenski
Autonomous On Demand Aviation:
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
The Future of Work: The organizational structure will look something like this….
24Jan2017 MD&I HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2017 (IBM Internal Version)
Management
Smart Robots, Vehicles & Things Employees
Smart Robots & Things
Cognitive Coach
Customers
Smart Robots & Things
Cognitive Coach
Other Stakeholders and their “Coaches”
Cognitive Coach
15
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
The Future of Work will involve a partnership between humans and cognitive systems technology
Cognitive Systems will excel at§ Locating Knowledge§ Pattern Identification§ Natural Language§ Machine Learning§ Eliminating Bias / Emotion§ Endless Capacity
Humans will excel at§ Common Sense§ Morals§ Imagination§ Compassion§ Abstraction§ Dilemmas§ Dreaming§ Creativity§ Generalization§ Judgement
24Jan2017 MD&I HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2017 (IBM Internal Version)16
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
Where are we headed? The future (2040-50) IT platform will be very fast and optimized for distributed cloud-based cognitive applications
17 24Jan2017 MD&I HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2017 (IBM Internal Version)
Characteristics:• Distributed / Edge Computing• Secure• Data as an Asset• Blockchain• Analytics• Cognitive• UX by Design• Very Fast à Zettascale computing (1021)?
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
Information Technology Trends to Watch in 2017
18 24Jan2017 MD&I HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2017 (IBM Internal Version)
1. Conversational Services & Chatbots2. Blockchain3. Robotic Process Automation (RPA)4. Robots5. Drones6. Driverless Vehicles7. Enterprise Wearables8. Augmented Reality9. Virtual Reality10. Fog (Edge) Computing11. Quantum Computing12. Affective Computing13. Swarm Computing
1. Security2. System Infrastructure3. Cloud Computing4. AI/Cognitive Computing5. Mobile Devices6. Internet of Things7. Analytics
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
AI/Cognitive Computing: Trends to watch in 2017 … and beyond
19
§ VCs and startups
§ Patents
§ Acquisitions continue to accelerate
§ Vendors court developers to their platforms
§ Consumer AI tech drives market
§ Conversational services explode
24Jan2017 MD&I HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2017 (IBM Internal Version)
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
Conversational Services and Chatbots: Trends to watch in 2017 … and beyond
20
§ Experimentation accelerates
§ Potential benefits attract adopters
§ Awareness grows of top industries & use cases
§ Characteristics of best services
§ Vendors court developers
24Jan2017 MD&I HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2017 (IBM Internal Version)
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
Swarm Computing: Trends to watch 2017 - 2030
1. A goal is to mimic the behavior of nature
2. Enabled by AI, analytics, cloud, IoT edge computing
3. Future of ground transportation
4. Future of air transportation
5. Use case: search and rescue
6. Military testing
21
“Inspired by nature, Honda developed the Safe Swarm concept, enabling vehicles to wirelessly communicate with one another, sharing critical information in order to reduce traffic congestion, mitigate potential collisions and provide a more comfortable driving experience.” Honda: Safe Swarm INTRO
IEEE: A Swarm of One Thousand Robots
24Jan2017 MD&I HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2017 (IBM Internal Version)
“Swarm of drones will help farmers map weeds in their fields and improve crop yields.” Robohub: Swarms of precision agriculture robots could help put food on the table
© 2017 IBM Corporation
IBM Market Development & Insights
Affective Computing – 5 trends to watch in 2017
§ Detecting emotions from videos, audio, text, facial expressions and gestures is a growth market.
§ Use cases include market research, advertising, education, collaboration apps, and mental health research.
§ More research is needed§ Companies to Watch: Affectiva, Beyond Verbal,
CrowdEmotion, Emoshape, Feel Wristband (SentioSolutions) Gestigon , Humanyze, Kairos, Nuralogix, nVisio, Realeyes, Sension
§ AI vendors are becoming more active
22
“Machines, like humans, need emotional intelligence to be most effective. This is especially true today in a world where technology is becoming more and more conversational, perceptual and relational.” Affectiva: Emotion Technology Year in Review: Affectiva in 2016
24Jan2017 MD&I HorizonWatch: Technology Trends To Watch In 2017 (IBM Internal Version)