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Climate change and bean productionJulian Ramirez / Andy Jarvis
(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
• What climate change?• Sensitivity of beans?• Modelling crop suitability impacts• Breeding priorities• Way forward: modelling crop processes• Where are the traits?
Outline
What climate change?
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Emissions from agricultureExcluding land-use [Mt CO2-eq]
Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008
Impacts on agriculture• By 2100, novel climates could happen in 10-48% of the earth
(Williams et al. 2007)• Climate change is predicted to decrease agricultural yields (many
authors), with major impacts in the DW (many authors)
Source: Lobell et al., 2008
Climate Predictions
• Global Circulation Models
… to produce future predictions based upon historical observations…
Climate Predictions
• Climate is very hard to model
Climate model skill
• Climate model skill (CMIP3)1961-1990 Rainfall 1961-1990 Temperature
Source: Ramirez and Challinor, in prep.
Climate model skill
Sensitivity of beans
Courtesy: S. Beebe
Sensitivities
• Drought: less biomass (optimal 300-500 mm)• Waterlogging: Root rotting• High temperatures
Konsens et al. 1991
Sensitivities
• CO2 response
340 ppm
3,000 ppm
500 ppm
Jolliffe & Ehret (1985)
Sensitivities
• CO2 and HTS– CO2: increases biomass– HTS (temperature)– HTS (timing)– HTS (duration)
• Pests and diseases– In dry areas– In humid areas
Vara-Prasad et al. 2002
Common Bean
VulnerabilityA n a l y s e s
Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
Modelling changes in crop suitability
It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation…
…and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…
• EcoCrop: how does it work?
Common Bean Current Suitability
Kiling temperature (°C) 0
Minimum absolute temperature (°C) 13.55
Minimum optimum temperature (°C) 17.45
Maximum optimum temperature (°C) 23.05
Maximum absolute temperature (°C) 25.63
Growing season (days) 90
Minimum absolute rainfall (mm) 200.0
Minimum optimum rainfall (mm) 362.5
Maximum optimum rainfall (mm) 449.5
Maximum absoluterainfall (mm) 710.0
Common Bean Future Suitability and Change
2030s SRES-A1B
2030s SRES-A1B
Lima Bean
VulnerabilityA n a l y s e s
Flora Mer, Patricia Moreno, Carlos Navarro, Julián Ramírez
Lima Bean Current Suitability and Presence
Lima Bean Future Suitability and Change
2030s SRES-A1B
2030s SRES-A1B
Impacts
Lima bean Common bean
Breeding priorities (water)
Common beanLima bean
Breeding priorities (temperature)
Common beanLima bean
Way forward: modelling crop processes
• Phenology• Water balance• TDS + DS + HTS• CO2 fertilisation
• Nutrient balance?• Pests and diseases?
Designing ideotypes
• Evaluate the effects of these traits using crop models– A faster and efficient rooting system– Higher transpiration efficiency– Higher harvest index– Tolerance to water/temperature stresses
Where to look for those (abiotic) traits?
vulgaris
dumosus
vulgaris
lunatus
Where to look for those traits?
CONSERVEDEX-SITU
POTENTIAL
From ~260,000 accessions, only 4,453 are wild
From 85 taxa, 35 are not in any genebank, and 26 have <10 accessions...
Source: Ramirez-Villegas et al. (2010)
But as we know, they’re not well conserved
Summary
• More conservation? Not a surprise• Heat and drought tolerance for both crops,
but heat more intensely for Lima beans, whereas drought more intensely for dry beans
• Mechanistic modelling needed• Perhaps some further experimentation to
characterise HTS?