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Presentation given at the St Johns River Summit. Lessons learned about sea level rise from the Everglades restoration experience.
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US Army Corps of Engineers
BUILDING STRONG®
Everglades Restoration Climate Change Concerns and Draft Sea Level Rise Planning Guidance
Everglades Restoration Climate Change Concerns and Draft Sea Level Rise Planning GuidanceSea Level Rise WorkshopFlorida Atlantic UniversityBoca Raton, FLFebruary 16, 2010
Presented by: Stu AppelbaumChief, Everglades DivisionU.S. Army Corps of Engineers Jacksonville District
Florida Bay
BiscayneBay
MIAMI
EVERGLADESNATIONAL
PARK
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Presented by: Kris Esterson (Everglades Partners Joint Venture) &
Glenn LandersSenior Project ManagerClimate Change StudiesEverglades DivisionUSACE, Jacksonville District
St. Johns River Summit Challenges: Sea Level RiseSeptember 15, 2010Jacksonville, Florida
Lessons Learned from the Everglades Sea Level Rise Assessments and Methods
Lessons Learned from the Everglades Sea Level Rise Assessments and Methods
BUILDING STRONG® US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS | Jacksonville District
SLR and Climate Change in CERP
Where is the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Program (CERP) in the process of assessing SLR impacts on the program?
• Guidance on sea level change was issued by USACE in July, 2009.
• The new guidance required increased analysis of SLR effects on CERP projects and program.
• USACE, and CERP partner agencies, are currently developing several documents on climate change impacts to CERP.
• Future investigations will focus on tool development and development of adaptation strategies.
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Scenarios of Sea Level Rise for Mayport, FL
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Map of Compliant Stations
9 Tide Stations in Florida comply with the EC’s requirements.
= Stations referenced in CERP planning
= Stations relevant for St Johns River (Mayport and Fernandina Beach)
BUILDING STRONG® US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS | Jacksonville District
SLR Measured at Mayport
2.40 mm/yrTide Station
BUILDING STRONG® US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS | Jacksonville District
Scenarios of Sea Level Rise for Mayport, FL
BUILDING STRONG® US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS | Jacksonville District
Scenarios of Sea Level Rise for Fernandina Beach, FL
BUILDING STRONG® US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS | Jacksonville District
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
Year
Rela
tive R
ise (
feet)
Rela
tive R
ise (
me-
ters
)
Intermediate
Historic
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers EC 1165-2-211 Relative Sea Level Rise Projections
Key West, Vaca Key, Mayport,St. Petersburg
20 year
100 year
50 year
Apalachicola
United Nations Climate Change Science Compendium, 20090.8m to 2.0 meters (2.62 to 6.56 feet) by 2100
SLR Scenarios for Selected Sites in Florida
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2050 2100
0 ft
6 ft
3 ft
1.7’ by 2100 (CGM 16, 2004)
2030
?
?
2 ft
1 ft
4 ft
5 ft
2000
SFRPC 10% Worst Case
SFRPC 50% Moderate Case
SFRPC 90% Least Case
SLR Projections & Planning Standards for South Florida
>1.5’ for ~2059 (Miami-Dade., 2009)
0.5’ SFWMD Sensitivity Test (Trimble, 1998)
0.48’ (15cm) for 2050 (Yellow Book, 1999)
EC 1
165-
2-21
1
Hig
h
EC 1165-2-211 Interm
ediate
>3-5’ for ~2100 (Miami-Dade., 2009)
0.8’ by 2050 (CGM 16, 2004)2.1” to 1’ for 2030 (Broward Co.,
2009)
EC 1165-2-211 Historic
NRC 2nd Biennial Review (2008) “not much more than 3 feet”
?
1.09’ (34cm) for 2100 (Yellow Book, 1999)
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New Corps Guidance on Incorporating Sea-Level Change Considerations
EC 1165-2-211 became effective July 1, 2009
Applies to every Corps coastal activity as far inland as extent of tidal influence
Does not apply to regulatory activities
EC can be accessed at: http://140.194.76.129/publications/eng-circulars/ec1165-2-211/
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Evolution of USACE/CERP Guidance on SLR
Year Published Report Title Method and References Max SLR
Considered
1999Yellow Book
(C&SF Restudy)
Recognition of EPA (Titus and Narayanan,1995) projections of nearly 1m for south Florida, but used only 15cm rise in sensitivity testing
15cm
2000USACE Planning and Guidance Notebook
ER 1105-2-100
References NRC (1987) sea level scenarios. Establishes use of a multiple scenario approach.
1.5 m
2004CERP Guidance Memorandum
EPA (Titus and Narayanan,1995) projections for local gages“a value of 0.8 ft should be used when considering the most-probable sea level rise for system-wide analyses”
0.8ft
2009 EC 1165-2-211 Update to NRC (1987) sea level scenarios >1.5 m
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Florida Through Time – Climate Change Happens!
120,000 years ago 18,000 years ago Today + 6 meters (20’)* - 120 meters (420’)
*~ ½ from Greenland*~ ½ from Antarctica
100 miles
Credit: Dr. Harold R. Wanless; University of Miami, Department of Geological Sciences; co-chair of Miami-Dade Climate Change Task Force
Credit: Dr. Harold R. Wanless; University of Miami, Department of Geological Sciences; co-chair of Miami-Dade Climate Change Task Force
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Climate Change Concerns for South Florida Ecosystem Restoration
Sea Level Rise• Salinity changes in coastal bays• Shoreline retreat with natural habitat changes/losses• Increasing flooding in coastal areas• Saltwater intrusion in water supply wells• Uncertainties and risks in rate and depth of sea level rise
Warmer Temperatures• Evaporation losses up; water supply down• Stresses on plant, animal, and marine ecosystems• Changes in growing season and migratory patterns• Changes in water quality
Hydrologic Pattern Changes• Potential for less frequent and more intense rain events• Potential increased tropical storm intensity or frequency
BUILDING STRONG® US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS | Jacksonville District
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
Year
Rela
tive R
ise (
feet)
Rela
tive R
ise (
me-
ters
)
Intermediate
Historic
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers EC 1165-2-211 Relative Sea Level Rise Pro-jections
Key West, Vaca Key, Mayport,St. Petersburg
20 year
100 year
50 year
Apalachicola
United Nations Climate Change Science Compendium, 20090.8m to 2.0 meters (2.62 to 6.56 feet) by 2100
Planning Scenarios for Sea Level Change Impacts Assessment and Adaptation Studies in Florida
2.0
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Credit: Peter W. Harlem, Florida International University, Southeast Environmental Research Center
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Sea Level Rise in South Florida A little less than 1 foot during the past century
measured at Key West A 2 foot rise would have significant effects
BUILDING STRONG® US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS | Jacksonville District
Sea Level Rise in South Florida A little less than 1 foot during the past century
measured at Key West A 4-5 foot rise would have dramatic impacts
MHHW +120 cm (4 ft) rise MHHW +150 cm (5 ft) rise
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Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact
2009 Agreement between Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, and Monroe counties
• Federal, state, and local stakeholders were present
• Will coordinate mitigation and adaptation activities
• Establishes a framework in which the four counties can share resources and collaborate on climate change adaptation strategies
• Second annual meeting planned on October 29, 2010
BUILDING STRONG® US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS | Jacksonville District
Flood Damage Concerns
Sea level rise will reduce effectiveness of gravity drainage
canals
The population of South Florida is 6.5 million and growing
BUILDING STRONG® US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS | Jacksonville District
Flood Damage Concerns
Sea level rise will reduce effectiveness of gravity
drainage canals
The population of South Florida is 6.5 million and growing
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Shallow wells are the primary source of drinking water for
south Florida communities
Will local canal stages be allowed to rise in step with sea
level rise? Continued sea level
rise w/o rising canal stages will allow
saltwater intrusion into water wells and
create a need for alternative
freshwater sources
Conceptual diagram of hydrologic systemof south Florida (Langevin, USGS, 2000)
Water Supply Concerns
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Water Supply ConcernsKissimmee River Basin and Lake Okeechobee Lake Okeechobee Drought
Sea level rise may increase demand for water to maintain higher canal stages
near the coast Saltwater intrusion into water supply
wells or climate change impacts on rainfall patterns and evaporation will
increase water storage needs
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Everglades National Park
Sixty percent of Everglades National Park is less than 3
feet above MSL
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Effects on Natural Areas
Photo Credit: Dr. Harold R. Wanless;
University of Miami, Department of Geological Sciences; co-chair of
Miami-Dade Climate Change Task Force
Peat CollapsePeat Collapse
Dead sawgrass, substrate decay
Everglades restoration will increase freshwater flows to natural areas and may delay some future
habitat changes
Remnant living
sawgrass
Remnant living
sawgrass
Saltwater inundation leads to
peat collapse and decline of
freshwater wetlands habitat
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shoreline.noaa.gov/apps/bounddeterm.html
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MHHWMHW
MSL
MLWMLLW
Tidal Datums for Key WestElevations in NAVD 88 Relative to NTDE 1983-2001
MHHW= MSL + 0.92 ftMHW= MSL + 0.63 ft
Great Diurnal Range (GT)- The difference in height between mean high high water and mean lower low water.
Mean Range of Tide (MN)- The difference in height between mean high water and mean low water.
Great D
iurnal Range (GT)
Mean Range of Tide (M
N)
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U.N. Climate Change Science Compendium 2009
0.8 to 2.0 meters (2.62 to 6.56 feet) by 2100
2.00
2060
2110
2010
Scenarios for Sea-Level Rise
High – Modifie
d NRC - I
II
Intermediate – Modified NRC - I
Low – Historic
Use GIS to develop flooded
area maps in +1ft increments to +6ft of SLC.
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Biscayne Bay Coastal Wetlands
Northern Portion
Mean High High Water
BUILDING STRONG® US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS | Jacksonville District
Mean High High Water
Biscayne Bay Coastal Wetlands
Southern Portion
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Mean High High Water Plus 0.5 ft
BUILDING STRONG® US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS | Jacksonville District
Mean High High Water Plus 1.0 ft
BUILDING STRONG® US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS | Jacksonville District
Mean High High Water Plus 1.5 ft
BUILDING STRONG® US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS | Jacksonville District
Mean High High Water Plus 2.0 ft
BUILDING STRONG® US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS | Jacksonville District
Model Development
For South Florida Climate Change Adaptation Studies
Regional models must be modified or developed to evaluate potential climate
change related variations in rainfall, evapotranspiration and
tropical storms.
Local models with one foot topographic contours must be
developed or enhanced to evaluate potential sea level rise
and salt water intrusion impacts in natural and
developed coastal areas.
Conversion to NAVD88 is needed.
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Coordinate Draft CGM16 with CERP Partners and COE national team preparing SLC ETL
Continue Initial SLR Impacts Assessments for CERP coastal projects
Summarize Initial SLR Impacts Assessments in CERP Tech Rpt 1
Continue Model Development for More Detailed Future Studies
Next Steps - CERP
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Per WRDA 2007, update USACE Principles and Guidelines for Water Resources Projects. National Research Council (NRC) review due Nov 2010.
A national interagency team is preparing a new Engineering Technical Letter (ETL) on Sea Level Change due in 2011.
NRC to review and possibly update their 1987 SLR guidance by Dec 2011.
CEQ Climate Adaption Task Force
Next Steps - USACE
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Procedures to Evaluate Sea Level Change Impacts, Responses, and Adaptation
Engineering Technical Letter Team
MmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmMmmmMmmmmmmm
Mmmmmmmmmmmm
MmmJohn Winkelman, NAE
Jeff Gebert, NAPLarry Cocchieri, NAD
and PCX
Mike Wutkowski, SAW
Matt Schrader, SAJGlenn Landers, SAJ
Julie Rosati, ERDCAndy Garcia, ERDC
Susan Rees, SAMDennis Mekkers, SAM
Mike Mohr, LRB
Tom Smith, POHCrane Johnson, POA
Stu Townsley, SPD
Heidi Moritz, NWPTeam Lead forEngineering
Lauren DeFrank, IWR
Justo Pena, SWG
External ExpertsUSGSNOAANavyFHWA
HR Wallingford, UKUniversity of Southampton, UK
John Furry, HQ
Henri Langlois, IWRTeam Lead for
Planning
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Everglades Restoration Climate Change Concerns
Key Take Away Points Uncertainties and RISKS exist regarding climate change,
particularly future rate and depth of sea level rise National Academy of Sciences 2008 report on
restoration progress stated that climate change should be a reason to accelerate Everglades restoration, not a reason for delays
Everglades Restoration will help delay climate change impacts in natural and developed areas
More work needed to assess impact of sea level rise and climate change on the restoration effort
CERP Project Implementation Reports to address Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for enhanced long term sustainability
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After
Kissimmee River Restoration Kissimmee River Restoration
Before
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For additional information, contact:
Glenn Landers Or Kris Esterson
U.S. Army Corps of EngineersJacksonville District
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C-111 Spreader
Canal Project
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MSL = Mean Sea Level
C-111 Spreader
Canal Project
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MSL + 1 ft SLR
C-111 Spreader
Canal Project
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MSL + 2 ft SLR
C-111 Spreader
Canal Project
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MSL + 3 ft SLR
C-111 Spreader
Canal Project
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C-111 Spreader Canal ProjectSLR Effects on Restoration Benefits
After 20 Years After 50 Years After 100 Years
Low
Freshwater Wetlands
No effect Not significant Minor (10% reduction)
Nearshore Salinity No effect Not significant Location shift
Intermediate
Freshwater Wetlands
No effect Minor (10% reduction)
Significant (33% reduction)
Nearshore Salinity Minimal location shift
Location shift Location shift
High
Freshwater Wetlands
Minor (<10%) Significant (33% reduction)
All lost
Nearshore Salinity Location shift Location shift Location shift & losses