Arega Alene (IITA-Malawi); Yigezu Yigezu (ICARDA); Jupiter Ndjeunga (ICRISAT-Niger); Ricardo Labarta (CIP-Nairobi);

Robert Andrade (CIAT); Aliou Diagne (AfricaRice); Rachel Muthoni (CIAT-PABRA); Franklin Simtowe (ICRISAT-Nairobi);

Tom Walker (DIVA project coordinator)

◆Antecedent: The 1998 Initiative that resulted in Evenson & Gollin (2003) 20-25%◆

Describing the Bill & Melinda Gates’ DIVA Project and this paper by the

number 3 3 Years (2010-2012)

3 Broad institutional actors

• 7 CG Commodity Centers and Their Partners (IRRI & TRIVSA)• SPIA• Bioversity International

3 Objectives• 1. Performance criteria in NARS crop improvement programs for priority commodity by country combinations (104)• 2. Nationally representative surveys of diffusion of modern varieties (6 countries)• 3. Impact assessment (3 grants)

3 Databases in Objective 1 on performance indicators• Strength of human resources in NARS• Varietal output (release) • Varietal adoption (cultivar-specific for improved varieties)

3 Types of commodity coverage

• Continuing from 1998: Maize, cassava, groundnuts, sorghum, pearl millet, rice, beans, potato, wheat, barley, and lentil

• New: cowpea, sweetpotato, soybean, chickpea, and pigeonpea

• Bonus coverage: Yams (IITA), faba bean & field pea (ICARDA), and expanded coverage in cassava (IITA), rice (AfricaRice), and sorghum (INSTORMIL)

3 Levels of data availability & reliability by September 2011 for the continuing commodities for this paper

• Partially available but not reliable: Maize & wheat in East and Southern Africa

• Available & mostly reliable: Groundnuts, sorghum, and pearl millet in West Africa, rice, and beans

• Available & reliable: Cassava, maize in West & Central Africa, potato, barley, and lentil

Findings on Varietal Output from the 1998 data

Positive trend in the rate of release over time but release incidence peaked earlier for cassava, maize in West & Central Africa, and rice in the 1980s

Political instability in the 1990s adversely affected varietal output

Performance in the 1960s had a carry-over effect on releases in the 1970s but not later

Findings on Varietal Output from the 1998 data (cont.)

Release rate significantly higher in wheat & lower in cassava

Release profiles punctuated by bursts of

activity sandwiched between long periods of inactivity; Nigeria the main country exception

Emerging findings on varietal output in 2009/10

Rate of release increased for most crops from 1999 to 2009/10

Rate of release significantly lower in sorghum, groundnut, pearl millet, and lentils and higher in barley, cassava, and maize in WCA

Muted release estimate for rice unexpected

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Annual release rate from 1974 to 1998

Rice Cote d’Ivoire

Rice Sierra Leone

Maize Nigeria

Potato Ethiopia

Cassava Kenya

Beans RwandaCassava Nigeria

Findings on Varietal Adoption from the 1998 Data

CommodityImproved

Cultivars (%)Coverage (%)

Improved cultivars: lower bound

assumption (%)

Wheat 66 85 56

Potato 56 68 44

Rice 45 57 25

Maize WCA 37 94 35

Maize ESA 36 90 34

Cassava 22 83 18

Sorghum 23 54 13

Beansa 15 67 10

Barley 11 90 10

Groundnut 30 6 2

Pearl Millet 19 10 2

Lentils 0 80 0 a IARC only

Steady gains in most crops exceeding 1% per annum in penetration of Modern Varieties Cassava and the TMS cultivars e.g. 30572 Substantial gains by several countries in maize in West Africa Incremental, cumulative gains especially of varieties released in the 1990s

Emerging Findings on Varietal Adoption in 2009/10

Few cases of disadoption for MVS as a whole

Relatively low adoption of MVS in Ethiopia although recent gains are encouraging

Levels of MV adoption in coarse cereals & groundnuts in West Africa were lower than expected given low but stable levels of breeding investments over time

Emerging Findings on Varietal Adoption in 2009/10 (cont.)

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Adoption levels (%) in 1998

MaizeNigeria

CassavaNigeria

MaizeCameroon

MaizeSenegal

Potato Rwanda

Potato Uganda

MaizeGhana

Cassava Benin

Cassava MalawiBeans Malawi

Categorizing Levels of Modern Variety Adoption by Crop

High approaching full adoption in most countries of heavy production

• Spring bread wheat

• Potatoes

• Soybeans

• Emphasis on varietal turnover (mean weighted varietal age 10-20 years; no perceived change since the late 1990s)

Categorizing Levels of Modern Variety Adoption by Crop (cont.)

Maize

• High levels of variation in adoption levels across countries• Emphasis on varietal turnover in hybrids

Moderate; weighted average between 25-55%

• Rice, cassava, cowpea, pigeonpea, beans,andduram wheat

Low; weighted average less than 25%

• Groundnut, sorghum, pearl millet, lentils, faba bean, chickpea, and sweetpotato

Going from Monitoring of Varietal Output, Adoption, and Turnover to Improving

Crop Improvement

Center crop and synthesis reports early next year

Emphasis on cultivar-specific adoption and the reliability of estimates from expert panels

Challenge: Identification and consistent treatment of old ‘improved’ land race materials that were released in the country of origin

Going from Monitoring of Varietal Output, Adoption, and Turnover to Improving

Crop Improvement (cont.)

Identification of specific, relevant problems and questions

Public release of the Objective 1 datasets is scheduled for August, 2012

Investing in an aggregate rate of return study with an emphasis on productivity effects