Mixed crop-livestock systems: Indispensable means to achieving global food and nutritional security

Jimmy Smith Director General ILRI

Linking animal science and animal agriculture: Meeti ng the global demands of 2050

ADSA-ASAS-CSAS Joint Annual Meeti ngKansas City, Missouri, 20–24 July 2014

Key messages

1 Unprecedented demand for food, esp. animal-source food, will continue to soar in developing countries

2 The ubiquitous mixed crop-and-livestock production systems of developing countries play huge (often unnoticed) roles in global food supplies

3 On-going transformations of the world’s ‘mixed’crop-livestock farming systems present enormous (largely untapped) opportunities to increase global food security, to promote equitable economic growth and to protect our environment and human health

Unprecedented demand for food,especially animal-source food,

will continue to soar in developing countries

Key message 1

Unprecedented demand for food,especially animal-source food,

will continue to soar in developing countries

Gains in meat consumption in developingcountries are outpacing those of developed

1980 1990 2002 2015 20300

50

100

150

200

250

300

developingdeveloped

Mill

ion

met

ric t

onne

s

FAO 2006

Huge increases over 2005/7 amountsof cereals, dairy and meat will be needed by 2050

From 2bn−3bntonnes cereals each year

From 664m−1bntonnes dairy each year

From 258m−460m tonnes meat each year

4 of 5 highest value global commodities are livestock

FAOSTAT 2014(values for 2012)

Cow milk

Rice, paddy

Indig. Cattle

meat

Indig. Pig meat

Indig. Chicken meat

wheat

soybeans

tomatoes

sugar caneeggs

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

net production value (Int $) billion production (MT)

Net

pro

ducti

on v

alue

(Int

$) b

illio

n

Pro

du

ctio

n (

MT

) m

illio

ns

Cow milk has overtaken rice

Eggs havedisplacedmaize

FAO 2012Based on anticipated changes in absolute tonnes of product from 2000 to 2030

Percentage growth in demandfor livestock products: 2000−2030

Change in global and regional demand for food: Livestock and other commodities

developed developing SSA SA

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

cerealsroot/tubermeatdairy

% c

hang

e 20

05/0

7 to

205

0

309%

Modified from Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012

Note that in South Asia, demand for meat is predicted to rise by 309%.

The ubiquitous mixed crop-and-livestockproduction systems of developing countries

play huge (often unnoticed)roles in global food supplies

Key message 2

Most food of the world is producedon small mixed crop-and-livestock farms

Developing-country mixed crop-livestock systems, most of them smallholders, supplya large proportionof cereal and livestock products

Herrero et al. 2009

Various sources:BMGF, FAO and ILRI

Smallholders still dominate production in many countries

Region (definition of ‘smallholder’)

% production by smallholder livestock farms

Beef Chicken (meat)

Small ruminant

(meat)

Milk Pork Eggs

East Africa (≤ 6 milking animals)

60-90

Bangladesh (< 3ha land)

65 77 78 65 77

India (< 2ha land)

75 92 92 69 71

Vietnam (small scale)

80

Philippines (backyard)

50 35

Small-scale mixed crop-livestockfarmers are (surprisingly) competitive

East African dairy• 1 million Kenyan smallholders keep Africa’s largest dairy herd• Ugandans are the world’s lowest-cost milk producers• Small- and large-scale Kenyan dairy producers have same

levels of efficiency and profits

Vietnam pig industry• 95% of production is by producers with less than 100 animals • Pig producers with 1−2 sows have lower unit costs

than those with more than 4 sows• Industrial pig production could grow to meet

no more than 12% of national supply in the next 10 years • Smallholders will continue to provide most of the pork

IFCN, Omiti et al. 2004, ILRI 2012

These mixed farming systemsproduce much of our meat and milk

• Mixed systems are an important sourceof ruminant meat in 2000 and 2050– Europe: 42% mixed temperate– Latin America: 48% mixed humid– Africa/Middle East: 38% mixed arid

• Mixed systems are an equally important source of milk– Over 50% of milk comes from crop-

livestock farms, regardless of region– The big increases in milk production

to 2050 will continue to be in mixed systems, esp. in Africa/Middle East

Sources and sales of animal products

• 90% of animal products are produced and consumedin the same country or region

• Most are produced by smallholders

• Over 70% of livestock productsare sold ‘informally’

• 500 million smallholders produce 80% of the developing World’s food. 43% of the workforce are women

Soil fertility: 23% of nitrogen for crop productionin crop-livestock systems comes from manure

Animal traction remains essential forcrop production, especially in sub-Saharan Africa

7 million oxen are the main source of powerfor tilling soil in the Ethiopian highlands

Key message 3

On-going transformations of the world’s ‘mixed’crop-livestockfarming systemspresent enormous(largely untapped)opportunities to:

• increase food security• promote equitable

economic growth and• protect our environment

and human health

Criteria for a transformed livestock sector

• The environment– Increased production through productivity

gains– Production is more efficient

• The climate– Adverse impacts on climate are mitigated– Production adapts to changing climates

• Public health– Consumption patterns are balanced– Milk, meat, eggs are safe to consume– Zoonotic diseases are controlled

• Equitable, inclusive growth– Women benefit– Smallholders benefit

Strong growth in developing-countrycrop-livestock systems presents opportunities

• Of the world’s almost 1 billion smallholder livestock producers, it’s expected that:﹣One-third will find alternate livelihoods﹣One-third may or may not remain part of

the transformation of the livestock sector﹣One-third will succeed at market-oriented

livestock livelihoods

• The transitions, including consolidation, in smallholder crop-livestock systems that will take place in coming decades present opportunities to increase food production and simultaneously promote positive environment, equity and health benefits

Equitable, inclusive growth: opportunities for women

Targeting opportunities for women means taking account of:• Male-headed households have

larger livestock holdings than women-headed households

• Women are more likely to own small stock (poultry, sheep, goats)

• Women use livestock differently – more likely than men to use livestock assets to respond to crises

• Important role for women in milking and milk processing

Trajectories of growth for the livestock sectorStrong growthIntensifying, increasingly market oriented, often transformational

Fragile growthRemoteness, marginal lands, harsh climates restrict intensification

High growthwith externalitiesIntensified livestock systems with challenges

Trajectory

‘Strong growth’

Sector

Ruminant meat and milk, esp. in SSA, India− Pork in some regions

Issues

− Sustainable productivity - Market access and food safety− Zoonotic outbreaks

Opportunities

Novel approaches spanning sustainable productivity, markets, institutional and policy issues, risk analyses

‘Fragile growth’ Some smallholder and pastoral systems; little part in the production response

− Multiple endemic diseases− Zoonoses− Adaptive capacity− Movement controls

Mostly public sector interventions, mitigating vulnerability, improving resilience

‘High growth with externalities’

Mostly monogastric− China for all commodities

− Environmental - Drug resistance− Climate impacts on new vector and pathogen dynamics− Disease scares

Modalities of operation with private sector largely established.Managing environment and health risks and consumer demand

Distinguishing opportunities

Food, equity,environment, health

MarketsInstitutions

Policies

Animal health★Vaccines★Diagnostics

★Delivery systems

Markets & institutions★New business arrangements

★Good access to markets

Health & nutrition★Risk- not rule-based regulations

★Controlled zoonoses★Balanced diets

Environment★High feed efficiency★Wide use of crop

residues

Feed★Viable feed markets

★Improved feeds/feed strategies★Judicious biomass use

Genetics★Improved local

breeds★Breeds well-matched

to environments

Key messages

1 Unprecedented demand for food, esp. animal-source food, will continue to soar in developing countries

2 The ubiquitous mixed crop-and-livestock production systems of developing countries play huge (often unnoticed) roles in global food supplies

3 On-going transformations of the world’s ‘mixed’crop-livestock farming systems present enormous (largely untapped) opportunities to increase global food security, to promote equitable economic growth and to protect our environment and human health

Thank youThank youThank you

The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit is given to ILRI.

better lives through livestock

ilri.org