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Mobile Market : Past Present Now and Then

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Slide about mobile market I use to had a session for Computer Science CU on Aug 15, 2013

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Page 1: Mobile Market : Past Present Now and Then

Mobile Mobile Mobile

Page 2: Mobile Market : Past Present Now and Then

Who am I• Sittiphol Phanvilai

(nuuneoi)• 11 years in mobile

application development• Expertise on Smartphone

application development and UI/UX

• Experience 2 global apps with more than 1,000,000 downloads

Page 3: Mobile Market : Past Present Now and Then

Agenda

• Mobile Market• What’s now in Thailand• Get started on mobile app

development• To be mobile application developer• Want to have your own product?

Page 4: Mobile Market : Past Present Now and Then

Why Everyone goes for Mobile?

Page 5: Mobile Market : Past Present Now and Then
Page 6: Mobile Market : Past Present Now and Then

Why Mobile?

• I believe that everyone know the answer

• Everyone has mobile !• Mobile phone is not just a phone

anymore, they are now computer that could make a call

• Mobile phone is now treated as “Anytime Accessible Online Channel”

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And somebody has already been rich

from mobile app

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Apportunity

• App brings a lot of great opportunities to creator

Page 9: Mobile Market : Past Present Now and Then

To be rich

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To be known (and may be rich)

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To be hired

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To expand the business

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How does these Apportunities happen?

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Ecosystem

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App Store makes the world smaller

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Journey of the app: Past

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Key difficulty

• Hard to distribute the application• Hard to collect money from customer• Piracy always win (especially in

Thailand)

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Journey of the app: Present

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Key Advantage

• App distribution is not big deal anymore

• App Store collect the money for developer

• Piracy is also not big deal

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Thanks to

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Internet connect people together

Internet

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Ecosystem is ready

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Smartphone becomes the most effective connecting people

device

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Definition of Mobile Applicationis changed

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Mobile Application: Past

• The software on mobile

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Mobile Application: Present

• The media that help user and brand connected via mobile

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UnderstandMobile Market

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Global Mobile Subscription

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Penetration Percentage

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Mobile Phone Markets

• There are two types of mobile phones:

Smartphone Feature phone

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Smartphone is eating Feature Phone’s cake

• Q1’2013: Smartphone out-shipped Feature Phone

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U.S. Smartphone Penetration

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U.K. Smartphone Penetration

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It is still world of feature phone but …

• There are two words you need to know:

• What is difference?

Potential User Non-potential user

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Potential User

• User with potential to spend money on mobile app

• Use app frequently• Smartphone user is

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Non-Potential User

• Opposite to Potential User• What is app?• Feature phone user is

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Potential users are keep increasing

That’s mean cash flow in mobile app industry is keep increasing as well

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Page 39: Mobile Market : Past Present Now and Then

What’s now in Thailand

Page 40: Mobile Market : Past Present Now and Then

Now in Thailand

• Very high demand on mobile app– But 95% of demand are “Gimmick”

• Very high supply on programmer– But low quality

• Quality developer goes abroad for big company

• Funny: Startup causes developer shortage• AEC will cause quality developer leaking

out more

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Wanna be mobile application developer?

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What to focus?

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Good News: War End

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Good News: War end

• Android is leader, iOS is latter– Cover more than 90% and will be like

this for at least 2 years

• Windows Phone is now No.3 but still has no potential (and keep going down)

• As well as BB10 and the rest

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Bad News

Red Ocean

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Red Ocean

• There are already winner in almost every single type of application

• It doesn’t mean there is no room for new app, there is but not so many

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Bad News

• The winner is Android

Fragmentation

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Fragmentation

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Fragmentation

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Fragmentation

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Fragmentation

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iOS vs Android

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iOS vs Android

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Go for Android and iOS(if you want to go mass)

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So Android or iOS first?

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iOS vs Android: Shipment

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iOS vs Android

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Anyway go for iOS first not Android

• Although Android market share is larger than iOS but …– Potential user is still less than iOS– Fragmentation is highhigh high high highhhhh

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You need to go for them BOTH

• At the final stage, application is needed to be supported on both platform

• You also could do for them both at the same time– How? (TBD)

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Bad News: Late game

• We are now in period of “Late game”• There is already a winner in every

single way– Hardware– Software

• You would never be the first one• Don’t try to fight with the winner

(unless you are so confident)

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Late game

• No room for “just another application”

• Success rate is lower than previous• To survive:– Build the service or platform targeted

the specific target– Build on top the successful application– Build Enterprise application

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MOLOME

• Had ever been intended to compete with Instagram

• Until Instagram was acquired by Facebook

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MOLOME

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Turn crisis into opportunity(Pivot)

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Desktop vs Mobile

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Desktop vs Mobile

• Desktop: Run on power supply

• Mobile: Run on Battery

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Desktop vs Mobile

• Desktop: 2GB-32GB of RAM• Mobile: 256MB - 2GB

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Desktop vs Mobile

• Desktop: Stable network

• Mobile: WiFi, 3G, 2G, No signal

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Desktop vs Mobile

• Desktop: Large screen• Mobile: Small screen

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Desktop vs Mobile

• Desktop: Very fast processor• Mobile: Far slower processor

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Quality Mobile App Developer

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Quality Mobile App Developer

• Know how to optimize code• Know how to deal with fragmentation• Can develop both iOS and Android• Know direction of technology and follow• Don’t stick with just one OS• Know the UI/UX guideline• Know how to share code with another• Crash

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Get started on mobile application

development

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Native

• Android: Java• iOS: Objective-C• Windows Phone: C# (Silverlight/WPF)• BB10: Qt (QML + C++)• Firefox OS: HTML + CSS

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Cross Platform

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Wanna own your product?

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Startup 101

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Startup 101

One thing you should know

Startup is simple thing thatvery very very hard

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Basis• Good Team

– Founder– Developer– Business Development– PR & Marketing– Sale

• Great Idea• Vision• Monetization• Connection• Luck

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Step

MarketingPRImpleme

ntDesignThink

40% 20% 20% 20%

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Startup Ecosystem

Investor+

Startupwith

Scalable business

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Startup Ecosystem in Thailand

• Almost ready• But the biggest problem is just about

1% reach investor’s need• Now fund is moving out from

Thailand to another country: Vietnam, Myanmar

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Suggestion

• Think Local then Regional then Global

• What does it mean?

Scalable

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Suggestion

• Don’t open company in Thailand• Go for Singapore

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Secret behind mobile

application’s success

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Success rate of mobile application

5%and keep lower by time

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Key Success

• Cross Platform• Solve the problem• Snatch the “time in daily life”• Repeated user is more important

than new user (Gain & Keep)• Use Gimmick to gain user, use

feature to keep user• Has business model

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Key Success (Cont.)

• Always deliver new things• Perfect time to market• Well-designed• Quality• PR and Marketing• Connection

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Gimmick vs Feature

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Gimmick vs Feature

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Gimmick

• Wow !• Huuuu• Haaaaa• But boring• Short-life• Use it just

once or twice• Like ‘Magic’

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Feature

• Wow !• Huuuu• Haaaaa• But boring• Short-life• Use it just

once or twice• Like ‘Magic’

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Gimmick + Feature

• PR + Marketing + Real Feature

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Gain & Keep

• Gain : To gain user to the system• Keep : To keep user using the

service

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Gimmick

• Don’t measure succeed from Gimmick

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Gimmick & Feature

• So how do you know which one is Gimmick, which one is feature?

“Sense”

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Attack on‘Daily Life’

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Attack on Daily Life

• As long as people still eat, dining application will still alive

• As long as people still talk, chatting application will still alive

• As long as people still take a photo, photo sharing application will still alive

• As long as people still have lust, sex, dating service and adult content will still last long

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Dining

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Chatting

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Chatting

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Photo Sharing

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Adult

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Business Model ofMobile Application

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Business Model

• Free• Free with Ads• Sell the application/game• Free with In-App Purchase• Subscription• Expand the business to mobile• Sell your personal data

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Free

• For fun• For portfolio

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Free with Ads

• To collect some amount of money– 1-5 cents per user per day

• Need very high return rate• Annoying

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Sell the application/game

• Just sell it• Work with just specific OS in specific

case• In general case, not work anymore

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Free with In-App Purchase

• Distribute it for free and collect money from virtual item selling

Page 110: Mobile Market : Past Present Now and Then

Subscription

• Subscription base service. Collect money every week/month to extend the membership– Book–Movie– Etc.

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To expand the business

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Sell your personal data !

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Success Case Study

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Top 10 Revenue

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LINE

• Chat platform is the new way of social networking

• At first, success with new method of chatting (Sticker)

• Now more successful with gaming service

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Instagram

• Give the new way to communicate with people

• Solve the “too hard to decorate photo on mobile“ problem

• Creator has very good connection

• Change the concept in time

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Pulse News

• Present new way to read the news• Solve the problem “Hard to read

news on mobile phone”

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LINE & Instagram & Pulse

• They are “Platform”• They are “Well-Designed”• Driven with “User generated

content”• In “Daily-Life”

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Trends

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World is rotate faster in mobile world

• Everything changes in “year”–Motorola has ever been No.1– Nokia has ever been No.1– BlackBerry has ever been No.1– Apple has ever been No.1– Samsung has ever been No.2

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You need to know the trend and know what is going to

happen

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Global Trends• Android will be No.1 for at least 5 years

from now on or might be forever• iOS will be No.2 for a big while as well• Cross Platform is a must• Potential user will (or already does) use

more than one smartphone with different OS

• Store everything on Cloud• Just software might not be enough

anymore

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Thai Market

• 3G is (finally) available– Time to think about content to feed to

user

• Thai people basically doesn’t spend money on mobile app but dramatically love to spend money for showing off purpose

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It is too late to be just aMobile Application

Developer

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New way to develop app

• In future, app will be done by template– Shoppening– iBuildApp

• Demand for mobile app developer will be lower

• But there is still demand for skilled one

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VC said: “Mobile App again?”

• Mobile app is the way too … many• Consumer app is in Red Ocean

situation• There is very big room to play in

Enterprise application

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Next era is for

• Big Screen Hardware• Wearable Device• Robot

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Application forbusiness owner

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Enterprise Application

• Big room and great opportunity for developer and business owner

• Application to use internally for organization

• Last year is year of consumer application, this year is year of enterprise application

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Case Study: Condomenium

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Case Study: Insurance

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Consumer Application to expand business

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Augmented Realityon Mobile

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Feature or Gimmick?

• 90% Gimmick• 10% Feature

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Augmented Reality

• It is just a technique

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It is all about content

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Good Question

• AR was implemented for many years ago

• Why there is no success case that last long?

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Cloud Computing

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Cloud

• Why does Cloud matter?– People has many devices on hand– User need to sync data on every single

device

• How could we do?– via Server

• Server needs to be scalable for variant number of users– Scalable server = Cloud

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Cloud

• Public Cloud• Private Cloud

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Popular Public Cloud

• Amazon Web Service• Microsoft Azure• Advantage– Pay per use– Zero initial cost– Scalable

• Disadvantage– No privacy– Uncontrollable

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The End