@cyetain

http://xkcd.com/

@cyetain

@cyetain

Abductionnot just for

Aliens

@cyetain

@cyetain

ABDUCE

DEDUCE

INDUCE

Predictive

Probable

Plausible

The Way

Computers "Think"

The Way

Humans Think

Binary

Probability

Analogue

Justifiable

@cyetain

ABDUCE

DEDUCE

INDUCE

Experiences Hypothesises

ExpectedOutcomes

If Coherent

If Expected Outcomes Match Reality

EffectiveMatch

@cyetain

ABDUCE

DEDUCEINDUCE

@cyetain

ABDUCE

DEDUCEINDUCE

SURPRISE!!!

@cyetain

The Principle of Optimum Failure Rate

0% 100%

Probability of Failure

50%

Pote

ntia

l Inf

orm

atio

n

@cyetain

0% 100%

Probability of Failure

50%

Pote

ntia

l Inf

orm

atio

n

Greater Asserted Information

Greater Asserted Information

@cyetain

0% 100%

Probability of Failure

50%

Pote

ntia

l Inf

orm

atio

n

Greater Asserted Information

Greater Asserted Information

Pretty Sure

theory is wrong

Pretty Sure

theory is right

Interesting Ideas

@cyetain

0% 100%

Probability of Failure

50%

Pote

ntia

l Inf

orm

atio

n

Greater Asserted Information

Greater Asserted Information

Pretty Sure

theory is wrong

Pretty Sure

theory is right

Interesting Ideas

Uncomfortable

Confident

@cyetain

Experience of Failure

Num

ber

of S

ampl

esThe Competency Trap

@cyetain

0% 100%

Probability of Failure

50%

Pote

ntia

l Inf

orm

atio

n

@cyetain

0% 100%

Probability of Failure

50%

Pote

ntia

l Inf

orm

atio

n

Pretty Sure

theory is wrong

Pretty Sure

theory is right

Interesting IdeasHidden

RiskHidden Value

The Line of SURPRISE!

@cyetain

0% 100%

Probability of Failure

50%

Pote

ntia

l Inf

orm

atio

n

Pretty Sure

theory is wrong

Pretty Sure

theory is right

Interesting IdeasHidden

RiskHidden Value

1

2

3

During Customer Development Focus on Interesting Ideas

Before Scaling Validate Your "We Know This Assumptions" to reduce risk of Failure Demand

After Customer Validation Run experiments to Validate Assumptions of Failure

2 3

1

@cyetain

Just Say No to Xenophobia

Utilize Abduction&

Scientific Method

@cyetain

Multi-Hypothesis Research

!=

@cyetain

BRAINSTORM

@cyetain

TheoriesOpinions

Hypothesizes

The Facts and Just the Facts

@cyetain

TheoriesOpinions

Hypothesizes

ConstraintsCriteria

@cyetain

TheoriesOpinions

Hypothesizes

QuestionFacts

@cyetain

TheoriesOpinions

Hypothesizes Request More Information

@cyetain

How Would I Validate my

understanding of this

problem?How Would I

solve this

Problem?

•Based on your experiences, what would you do to solve this problem? This is your Hypothesis.•Identify What Needs to Be True if your Hypothesis is true.•Assert, Presume, Assume Truth•Imagine Experiments that would justify the Assumptions

@cyetain

I Assert that this I know this

0% 100%

Probability of Failure

50%

Pote

ntia

l Inf

orm

atio

n

Pretty Sure

theory is wrong

Pretty Sure

theory is right

Interesting Ideas

I Presume Somebody knows this

I am going to Assume

this is true for my

Hypothesis to be true

0% 100%

Probability of Failure

50%

Pote

ntia

l Inf

orm

atio

nPretty Sure

theory is wrong

Pretty Sure

theory is right

Interesting Ideas

0% 100%

Probability of Failure

50%

Pote

ntia

l Inf

orm

atio

n

Pretty Sure

theory is wrong

Pretty Sure

theory is right

Interesting Ideas

@cyetain

This is my Hypothesis,

Assumptions and

Experiments

ChallengeAssumptions & Experiments

Rotate Pairs 2-3 TimesAllow Time for Revision Between Rounds

@cyetain

This is my Hypothesis,

Assumptions and

Experiments

@cyetain

Multiple Smaller Experimentsagainst

Multiple Abductive Hypotheses

instead of

Single Large Experimentagainst

Single Hypotheses