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slides from the keynote by Wayne Hodgins to the Computer Education Managers Association CEdMA Fall conference in Boston, MA on Oct. 25, 2007
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New Perspectives New Perspectives on the Future of on the Future of
LearningLearningOh Wow! Oh No!Oh Wow! Oh No!
CEdMA Fall CEdMA Fall ConferenceConference
Boston, MA USABoston, MA USA
October 25, 2007October 25, 2007
Wayne Wayne HodginsHodgins
Strategic Strategic FuturistFuturist
Autodesk Inc.Autodesk Inc.
2Oct. 25, 2007
www.autodesk.com/waynehodgins
Strategic Futurist
President & Co-FounderLearnativity.org
Chair,IEEE Learning Technology Standards CommitteeLearning Object Metadata
Strategic Advisor
Strategic Advisor
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Oct. 25, 2007
Seeing Patterns & Trends:
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Oct. 25, 2007
WARNING: Time Warp Ahead!!
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It’s ALL Yours!It’s ALL Yours!For Questions & Comments please contact:For Questions & Comments please contact:
For slides, blogs, podcasts and more:For slides, blogs, podcasts and more:www.autodesk.com/waynehodgins
Slides available @ Slides available @ http://www.slideshare.net/WayneH/http://www.slideshare.net/WayneH/
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www.CreativeCommons.owww.CreativeCommons.orgrg
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Wayne’s Game ShowWayne’s Game Show
Oh WOW!Oh WOW!
Oh NO!Oh NO!
OK; what NOW?OK; what NOW?
Oh WOW!!Oh WOW!!
Future Trends, Patterns, Future Trends, Patterns, Directions & Disruptions Directions & Disruptions
headed your way….headed your way….
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A new perspective A new perspective is worth 80 IQ is worth 80 IQ
pointspoints- Alan Kay- Alan Kay
Prepare to get much smarter!
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New Perspectives:New Perspectives:How many IQ points would How many IQ points would
you like?you like? Value Propositions vs ActivitiesValue Propositions vs Activities Snowflake EffectSnowflake Effect 3C3C22 = C-ing the Future = C-ing the Future Look to the RightLook to the Right The Future is a Monstrous MashupThe Future is a Monstrous Mashup The power of UnThe power of Un The Long Tail of LET The Long Tail of LET (Learning Education & (Learning Education &
Training)Training) The NewOld workforceThe NewOld workforce Flapping vs FlyingFlapping vs Flying
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Disruptive Innovation!Disruptive Innovation!
There’s one in There’s one in YOUR future!!YOUR future!!
And another And another one right one right behind it!behind it!
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Perfecting the Perfecting the Irrelevant?!!Irrelevant?!!
Are we all Are we all very very very very veryvery
busy doing this???busy doing this???
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How to Avoid Perfecting the How to Avoid Perfecting the Irrelevant:Irrelevant:
Don’t confuse ACTIVITIES with VALUE Don’t confuse ACTIVITIES with VALUE PROPOSITION!PROPOSITION!
Ask WHAT are the true threats to your VP? (not Ask WHAT are the true threats to your VP? (not activity)activity)
Spend time discovering YOUR Value Proposition:Spend time discovering YOUR Value Proposition: You personallyYou personally Your teamYour team Your departmentYour department Your entire organizationYour entire organization Your market/industryYour market/industry
Look for your Value Proposition in the discard Look for your Value Proposition in the discard pilepile
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A new perspective A new perspective is worth 80 IQ is worth 80 IQ
pointspoints- Alan Kay- Alan Kay
Prepare to get much smarter!
TheTheSnowflakSnowflak
e e EffectEffectUnique is What We Seek!Unique is What We Seek!
The Snowflake Effect: The Snowflake Effect: UNIQUE is what we seek!UNIQUE is what we seek!You’re a SnowflakeYou’re a Snowflake
More so, every situation and More so, every situation and every project is uniqueevery project is unique
Always has been, always will Always has been, always will bebe
The Snowflake Effect: The Snowflake Effect:
If this is SO obviousIf this is SO obviousIf this has always beenIf this has always beenAnd always will beAnd always will be
Then why do we live in a Then why do we live in a world designed for the world designed for the
opposite?opposite?
The Snowflake Effect:The Snowflake Effect:The ideal is getting to The ideal is getting to “just “just
right *”…right *”… Just the right Just the right CONTENTCONTENT, to, to Just the right Just the right PERSONPERSON, with, with Just the right Just the right PARTNERSPARTNERS, at, at Just the right Just the right TIMETIME, on, on Just the right Just the right DEVICEDEVICE, in, in Just the right Just the right CONTEXTCONTEXT, and, and Just the right Just the right WAYWAY ……… ………* not to be confused with perfection!!* not to be confused with perfection!!
The Snowflake EffectThe Snowflake Effect
MMaaSSSS PPeeRRSSOONNAALLiiZZAATTiiOONNIt’s not about “e” it’s about me!!It’s not about “e” it’s about me!! Personalized Learning Experiences for Personalized Learning Experiences for
every person every dayevery person every day all 6.6 billion of us!! all 6.6 billion of us!! (and counting)(and counting)
Just for me and just right:Just for me and just right: On demand, adaptiveOn demand, adaptive
Markets of one: Billions of MarketsMarkets of one: Billions of Markets
““Capitalizing on EVERY Teachable Moment”Capitalizing on EVERY Teachable Moment”
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Premature Arrival of the Premature Arrival of the FutureFuture
The future is The future is already here. already here.
It is just not evenly It is just not evenly distributed!distributed!
- William Gibson- William GibsonThe art of the possible in practice today!
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Pandora and the Music Genome Pandora and the Music Genome ProjectProject
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last.fmlast.fm
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Mass personalization: What’s Mass personalization: What’s New?New?
Unique means unique!Unique means unique! Uniqueness for the rest of us.Uniqueness for the rest of us. The genie is out of the bottle, there The genie is out of the bottle, there
is no turning back.is no turning back. It’s now possibleIt’s now possible
And more and more know it and are And more and more know it and are demanding itdemanding it
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Applying the Snowflake Applying the Snowflake EffectEffect
UniquenessUniqueness Not only are YOU a snowflake but so too is every Not only are YOU a snowflake but so too is every
moment and situation a unique snowflakemoment and situation a unique snowflake The ultimate competitive advantage?The ultimate competitive advantage?
Mass PersonalizationMass Personalization Just the right, the new definition of perfectionJust the right, the new definition of perfection Pluralization of Personalization; applies to teams, Pluralization of Personalization; applies to teams,
groups, orgsgroups, orgs Feedback loopsFeedback loops
ExplicitExplicit ImplicitImplicit inferredinferred
MCMC33 : : Mass ContributionMass Contribution Mass CustomizationMass Customization Mass CollaborationMass Collaboration
DIY/BYO AssembliesDIY/BYO Assemblies Mashups and Legos are the modelsMashups and Legos are the models
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New Perspectives:New Perspectives:How many IQ points would How many IQ points would
you like?you like?3mC3mC22 = C-ing the Future = C-ing the Future
Look to the RightLook to the RightThe Long Tail of LET The Long Tail of LET (Learning Education (Learning Education
& Training)& Training)
The NewOld workforceThe NewOld workforce
3mC3mC22 = C-ing the = C-ing the FutureFuture
Content x Competencies x ContextContent x Competencies x Context
XX
Mass (Collaboration x Contribution x Mass (Collaboration x Contribution x Customization)Customization)
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CC-ing the Future: -ing the Future: C3C3
CContent, ontent,
CCompetenciesompetencies
CContextontext
CONTENTCONTENT
CO
NTEXT
CO
NTEXT
CO
MPETEN
CE
CO
MPETEN
CE
LEARNING &PERFORMANC
E
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CC-ing the Future: -ing the Future: MC3MC3
MASHUPS
CONTRIBTIONCONTRIBTION
COLLAB
ORATIO
N
COLLAB
ORATIO
N
CUST
OM
IZATI
ON
CUST
OM
IZATI
ON
MMassassCContributiontribution on
MMassassCCustomizustomizationation
MMassassCCollaboraollaborationtion
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Principle
Fact
Process
Overview
ProcedureText
Audio
Summary
Concept ENABLINGENABLINGObjectiveObjective
Enabling
Learning
Object
Terminal
Learning
Object
Animation
Simulation
illustrationTERMINALObjective
Common Content Application Specific Profiles
Repurposed with Permission: W.Hodgins ©1992 Learnativity
“Raw” Data & Media
Elements
Information
Blocks
CONTENT ASSETS
SkillObject
Universal Object Model?Universal Object Model?
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Principle
Fact
Process
Overview
ProcedureText
Audio
Summary
ConceptPrinciple
Process
Concept
Procedure
FactOverview
Summary
Objective
Enabling
Learning
Object
Terminal
Learning
Object
Collections(Courses, Stories,)
Animation
Simulation
illustration Objective Theme
EnablingObjective
TerminalObjective
Common Content Application Specific Profiles
Repurposed with Permission: W.Hodgins ©1992 Learnativity
“Raw” Data & Media
Elements
Information
Blocks
CONTENT ASSETS
CONTEXT
CONTEXT
ReUSABILITYReUSABILITY
Universal Object Universal Object Model?Model?
SkillObject
Universal Quals
Apprentice Journeyman MasterRecruit
“Individualized” Career DevelopmentThe Navy “5 Vector Model”
EM Quals
First line Leader
Foundational Leader
Primary Leader
Advanced Leader
Command Leader
Executive Leader
Platform Career OptionsEM Gas Turbine 5VM (DDG-51)
Engineering Quals
PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT
PERSONAL DEVELOPMENT
LEADERSHIP
CERTS | QUALS
PERFORMANCE
Industry Certs
Personal Dev SO
Personal Dev SO
Personal Dev SO
Lifelong Learning
Lifelong Learning
Lifelong Learning
Master S/O
Journeyman S/O
Apprentice S/O
E-1 E-2 E-3 E-4 E-5 E-6 E-7 E-8 E-9
Recruit S/O
EM2 Sciulli
Universal Quals
Engineering Quals
EM Quals
Universal Quals
Engineering Quals
EM QualsIndustry Certs
Industry Certs
Industry Certs
Apprentice Positions
Journeyman Positions
Master Positions
Selected Electricians
All Electricians
Where to Look Where to Look Next?Next?
To the RIGHT! To the RIGHT!
TheTheRIGHT BRAIN RIGHT BRAIN
EconomyEconomy
““The Right BrainThe Right Brain
will rule the future”will rule the future”
- Daniel Pink, A Whole New Mind- Daniel Pink, A Whole New Mind
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The RIGHT BRAINED ECONOMYThe RIGHT BRAINED ECONOMYDesigning from the Right Side of Designing from the Right Side of
the Brain:the Brain: The left brain is necessary but NOT The left brain is necessary but NOT
sufficientsufficient
AutomationAutomation taking over most of the taking over most of the left side roles and jobsleft side roles and jobs
The rising “The rising “Economy of Economy of AbundanceAbundance”” putting a whole new emphasis on putting a whole new emphasis on design and in particular on the appeal design and in particular on the appeal to the senses such as with “emotional to the senses such as with “emotional design”design”
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The Ambidextrous MindThe Ambidextrous Mind LEFT BrainLEFT Brain Sequential Sequential
reasoningreasoning AnalysisAnalysis TextText Numbers Numbers
RIGHT BrainRIGHT Brain Holistic reasoningHolistic reasoning SynthesisSynthesis Pattern Pattern
recognitionrecognition Context Context Images Images Interpret Interpret
emotions and non emotions and non verbalverbal
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Whole New Mind: Right Whole New Mind: Right brain economybrain economy
For more info see:For more info see: http://www.danpink.com/aboutwnm.php
Interview of Daniel Pink by Elliott Masie Interview of Daniel Pink by Elliott Masie http://www.learning2007.com/university/2005/8/10/dan-pink-interview-a-whole-mind-audio-podcast-text-transcript-new.html
““A Whole New Mind for a Flat World”, article by A Whole New Mind for a Flat World”, article by Richard M. Felder, North Carolina State Richard M. Felder, North Carolina State University University http://www.ncsu.edu/felder-public/Columns/Flatmind.pdf
See also from Don Norman:See also from Don Norman: The Design of Everyday ThingsThe Design of Everyday Things Emotional DesignEmotional Design
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Blog: Blog: thelongtail.cothelongtail.co
mm
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Long TailLong Tail““The future of business is selling less of more”The future of business is selling less of more”The economics of abundanceThe economics of abundance
§Creative squanderingCreative squandering§Don’t do one thing; do it all, Don’t store some; store Don’t do one thing; do it all, Don’t store some; store it all; don’t sell one piece of content, sell it allit all; don’t sell one piece of content, sell it all
Market of one is the biggest of all?Market of one is the biggest of all?The “getting small” of business:The “getting small” of business:
Combine enough non hits on the Long Tail and Combine enough non hits on the Long Tail and you've got a market bigger than the hits!you've got a market bigger than the hits!
"The biggest money is in the smallest sales.“"The biggest money is in the smallest sales.“ Barnes & Noble carries 130,000 booksBarnes & Noble carries 130,000 books More than half Amazon sales from OUTSIDE top 130,000More than half Amazon sales from OUTSIDE top 130,000
The market for books not sold in the bookstore is larger The market for books not sold in the bookstore is larger than those that are!than those that are!
Google makes most of its money from small advertisersGoogle makes most of its money from small advertisers eBay the sameeBay the same Children today will grow up never knowing the meaning of “out of Children today will grow up never knowing the meaning of “out of
print”print”
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Scarcity
Abundance
With thanks to Chris Anderson see his blog www.longtail.com
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Anatomy of the Long TailAnatomy of the Long Tail
Courtesy Wired magazine
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Courtesy Wired magazine
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Long Tail Learning:Long Tail Learning:
Extending the spectrum of Extending the spectrum of information students discoverinformation students discover
Finding (rather than searching for) Finding (rather than searching for) “just the right” content at just the “just the right” content at just the right time and in just the right right time and in just the right contextcontext
Deeply contextualDeeply contextual Imagine having a “Pandora” for all Imagine having a “Pandora” for all
forms of contentforms of content
Living in a World Living in a World of Exponential of Exponential
ChangeChangePrepare to be humbled!Prepare to be humbled!
See this podcast and posting on Off Course – On Target for more details, examples, exercises and explanation
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source: www.kurzweilai.net
Exponential GrowthExponential Growth
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Exponential Growth of Human Exponential Growth of Human Lifespan:Lifespan:
* Centenarians = people over 100 years old
*
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The NewOld WorkforceThe NewOld Workforce
What if they don’t retire? What if they don’t retire? Retirement redefinedRetirement redefined Recruitment & retentionRecruitment & retention
of ALL agesof ALL ages Experience capture, share & reuseExperience capture, share & reuse
Oh No!!Oh No!!
Suggestions on Some Suggestions on Some
Strategies for Strategies for SuccessSuccess
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So what? Why should So what? Why should YOU care?YOU care?
What is the effect on you as the following What is the effect on you as the following (as we know them) become irrelevant: become irrelevant: Software applications Software applications (watch widgets)
Hardware and most hard goods Hardware and most hard goods Org chartsOrg charts
What do the following look like as this What do the following look like as this happens:happens: Structured training; courses, lessons, etc.Structured training; courses, lessons, etc. CoursewareCourseware Manuals and docsManuals and docs Hiring & onboardingHiring & onboarding
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Strategic Suggestions: Strategic Suggestions: your choiceyour choice
The Future is a Monstrous MashupThe Future is a Monstrous Mashup
Embrace the power of UNEmbrace the power of UN
Metadata mattersMetadata matters
The Future is a The Future is a Monstrous & Monstrous &
Marvelous Marvelous
MMAASSHHuuP P !!
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Mashups: Current “techie” Mashups: Current “techie” definitionsdefinitions
A mash up is a website or web application that A mash up is a website or web application that seamlessly combines content from more than one seamlessly combines content from more than one source into an integrated experience.source into an integrated experience.
Content used in mashups is typically sourced from a Content used in mashups is typically sourced from a third party via a public interface or API. Other third party via a public interface or API. Other methods of sourcing content for mashups include Web methods of sourcing content for mashups include Web feeds (e.g. RSS or Atom) and JavaScript.feeds (e.g. RSS or Atom) and JavaScript.
Many people are experimenting with mashups using Many people are experimenting with mashups using eBay, Amazon, Google, Windows Live, and Yahoos eBay, Amazon, Google, Windows Live, and Yahoos APIs.APIs.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MashupSource: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mashup
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That’s SOOOooooo That’s SOOOooooo yesterday Dad!yesterday Dad!
Wayne’s new definition for Mashups:Wayne’s new definition for Mashups:
A mash up is a unique new assembly of pre-A mash up is a unique new assembly of pre-existing “objects”. existing “objects”. (usually from more than one source)(usually from more than one source)
Mashups Mashups simplified:simplified:
You already know You already know the modelthe model
Think Lego blocks!Think Lego blocks!
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EVERYTHING becomes a EVERYTHING becomes a Mashup!Mashup!
Music, TV, videoMusic, TV, video Infinite channelsInfinite channels
ContentContent Wiki, blogs, aggregators, readers, CMSWiki, blogs, aggregators, readers, CMS
Searching/findingSearching/finding Tag CloudsTag Clouds
MapsMaps EventsEvents
UNconferencesUNconferences Competencies, peopleCompetencies, people
Project based crowdsourcingProject based crowdsourcing Games & SimulationsGames & Simulations
Alternate realityAlternate reality**NOT alternative or virtual realities**NOT alternative or virtual realities
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Mashups Mashups
Some assembly requiredSome assembly required
Design for DIY/BYODesign for DIY/BYO
Applies to people too!Applies to people too!
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The Power of “Un”The Power of “Un”
As in UNstructured, UNorganized, As in UNstructured, UNorganized, UnmanagedUnmanaged
The formalization of informal learning?The formalization of informal learning? UN conferenceUN conference UN presentationUN presentation
Pecha KuchaPecha Kucha UN learningUN learning UN gamesUN games
World Without OilWorld Without Oil
They lead to infinite and unique They lead to infinite and unique solutions!!!!solutions!!!!
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Metadata MattersMetadata Matters
Metadata based matrices vs fixed Metadata based matrices vs fixed categoriescategories
Automated Metadata GenerationAutomated Metadata Generation Attention metadataAttention metadata
Attention.xmlAttention.xml Metadata SchemasMetadata Schemas
MedbiquitousMedbiquitous Music Genome Project Music Genome Project (Pandora.com)
Contextual metadataContextual metadata
OKOK
What do we do What do we do
NOW???NOW???
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Shift Your ThinkingShift Your Thinking
Smaller Smaller Micro Micro TimeTime SizeSize Modular Modular (LEGO)
Demographics groups Demographics groups Unique Unique individualsindividuals
ProSumers ProSumers Tearners? Tearners? Left Left RIGHT (side of the brain) RIGHT (side of the brain) Managed, controlled Managed, controlled UN, emergent UN, emergent
Plant grass first; pave laterPlant grass first; pave later
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Design for:Design for: Mass personalization vs Mass ProductionMass personalization vs Mass Production DIY/BYO assembliesDIY/BYO assemblies UniquenessUniqueness
Categories Categories metadata metadata STOP stuffing everything and everyone into a STOP stuffing everything and everyone into a
box!box! Think rePURPOSE vs reUSEThink rePURPOSE vs reUSE
Infinite scalabilityInfinite scalability Capture, tag and publish:Capture, tag and publish:
Knowledge, experience, skillsKnowledge, experience, skills ContextContext Failures, discardsFailures, discards
FUN: it’s a feature not a bugFUN: it’s a feature not a bug
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Fun is a feature not a Fun is a feature not a bug!bug!
The opposite of work The opposite of work isn’t play,isn’t play,
it’s depression!it’s depression!- Brian Sutton-Smith, University of PennsylvaniaBrian Sutton-Smith, University of Pennsylvania
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Flapping vs FlyingFlapping vs FlyingInnovation not replication!Innovation not replication!
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Innovation not replication!Innovation not replication!
Let’s stop “flapping” Let’s stop “flapping” and replicating past artifactsand replicating past artifacts
It is NOT about flapping faster!!It is NOT about flapping faster!!
Let’s start thinking Let’s start thinking
DIFFERENTLYDIFFERENTLY!!!!
How does this apply to YOU?!
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For Questions & Comments please contact:
See “Off Course – On Target” for slides, podcasts, blogs and much
more:www.autodesk.com/waynehodgins
Thank Thank You!You!
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