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TheBusinessCasefor2GinRuralAfrica
SimPenetration
EricssonInterimMobilityReport2016
Highlights:• Africa– 965millionSubscribers
• Equatingtoover80%Penetration
UniqueSubscriberPenetration
GSMA– MobileEconomyAfrica2016
RuralPopulation(Geohive.com)
Region
Urbanpopulation2015
Ruralpopulation2015
%Urban2015
Urbanpopulation2025
Ruralpopulation2025
%Urban2025
World 3,957,285,013 3,367,497,212 54.0% 4,705,773,576 3,377,639,183 58.2%
Africa 471,602,315 694,636,991 40.4% 658,813,697 809,158,830 44.9%
EastAfrica 101,034,466 293,719,352 25.6% 154,745,070 356,483,116 30.3%
MiddleAfrica 63,060,945 80,231,666 44.0% 90,975,784 94,605,223 49.0%
NorthAfrica 112,068,513 104,995,632 51.6% 136,283,788 114,697,334 54.3%
SouthernAfrica
37,813,255 23,532,453 61.6% 43,318,068 22,191,215 66.1%
WestAfrica 157,625,136 192,157,888 45.1% 233,490,987 221,181,942 51.4%
TheGap
Breakdownofmobileinternet,voiceandtext,andnonmobilesubscribersattheendof2015(Somehighlights)• Kenya– 48%ofSubscribersusedata– 8%Voiceand
Textonlyand44%non-mobile• Ethiopia– 15%ofSubscribersusedata– 16%Voiceand
Textonlyand69%non-mobile
Devices
Ifby2020only57%ofAfricanswillhavesmartphones,wherewillthatbe?
UrbanAfricaorRuralAfrica
Socialbenefitsandeconomy
• RuralconnectivityisanopportunityforMNO’s,Governmentsandtheruralpopulation.• Ruralconnectivityenablesbasicdaytodayrequirements:
• Bridge/closureofdigitaldivide• Easier/fasterCommunicationandtrade• Mobilemoneyandmeansofelectronicpayments
• Ruralconnectivityinamorestructuredanddevelopedformalsobring:• Health,educationandprevention– E-Health• School,Knowledgeandeducation– E-School• Governmentservices,PostServices,…• EntertainmentwithKiosksandcontentdistribution
• Ruralconnectivityisanopportunitytodeveloprevenuesandservices,structuresocietyanddevelopmicroservices
GrowthOpportunity
• RuralconnectivityoffersMNO’sandinvestorsnewpocketsofgrowth,• Firstmoverswilltakeaconsiderableadvantage(incl.governmentcontracts&services)• Ruralconnectivityrollourcanbecosteffective:
• Usesatelliteservicestointerconnectthelastmileremotes• UseNuBSC foroptimizedbandwidthuseandefficiency• PotentiallysharetheinfrastructuresbetweenmultipleMNO’s
• Whoeverownthelastmileinfrastructureownsauniqueandvaluablepieceofnetwork.• LastmileremotesdependonSolarenergy(environmentfriendly+lowmaintenance)• Ruralconnectivitywillenhancetradeandcommunication- generateGDPgrowth
Whatdoesthisallmean?
2015 2025
TotalAfrican Population(Geohive.com) 1 166 239 306 1 467 972 527
UniqueSubscriber Penetration(AssumptionofGrowthfromGSMANumbersto2025)
46% 60%
CurrentSubscribers(Based onAbovePenetration)
536 470 081 880 783 516
We allagreethesepenetrationratesarenotrealisticforRuralAfricabutstillshowsmassivescopeforgrowth
RuralPopulation 694,636,991 809,158,830
Stretch TargetforRuralPenetrationwithassistancefromUniversalServiceFunds=50%
RuralSubscriber Target 347 318 496 404 579 415
PotentialRuralAnnual Revenue $8 335 643 892 $9 709 905 960Thisat$2inARPUweexpect$3-4inmostareas
LowCostSiteEconomics
CurrencyUSD Medium sizevillageAveragepopulation 5000Anticipated penetrationrate 50%Nb ofsubscribers 2500ARPULevel $3Revenue/site/year $90,000OPEX($360 Maintenance+$300VSAT) $660(Annual $7,920)SiteoverallCAPEX(Including:RAN,tower,power, civilwork,commissioning,Satellitemodemanddish,etc..)
$50,000
ROI 8months
Projectedannualrevenue(50sites):$4,500,000
BusinessModelInnovation
• MNO’sarechangingthemodelbytransferringallCapexintoOpex.• InotherwordsMNO’swanttotransferthecostofacquisitionofthelastmileremotesintoamonthlyoperationalcost.
• MNOareseparatingthetrafficmanagementfromthenetwork• MNO’sarespecializing&focusingonthecorebusiness
• Owning&RollingoutlastmileremoteinfrastructuresisCapexhungrybutcreatesawonderfulbusinessopportunityfor:• TowerOperators• Equipmentvendors(Nuran Wireless)• SiteBuilders• NewOperators• MVNOs• WISPproviders• Financialinvestorsorinstitutions.
LiteRAN Rural2GSolution
LiteRAN 2GisacompleteGSMbasestationsubsystem(BSS),developedspecificallyfordeploymentinremoteareaswherethereislimitedtonotelecommunications.
NuRAN 2GGlobalSolution
•CarrierGrade•BSC/BSS•NexusMSC• IOTwithmajorOEMs
•LowPower•LowCost•2x10WTRXs•Upto20Km•S2toS222mode
•Aslowas3kbpspercallwithalloptimizationfeaturesenabled
Let’sConnectRuralAfrica
• Asisnotedinthispresentationthereisahugeuntappedopportunity
• TherearemultiplebusinessmodelsthatcanworktoconnectlowARPUareas
• NuRAN isreadytotakethenextstepstohelpunlockthesepotentialrevenuesources
THANKYOU
BradleyShaw,RegionalManager- [email protected]