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Marcus Alexander, EPRIManager, Vehicle Systems Analysis

Net Zero Cities

October 23, 2013

Current and near-term emissions impacts of plug-in electric vehicles

2© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

• Background• Recent emission trends• Future potential• Wrap-up




How do electric vehicles fit into Net Zero Cities?

• From a transportation standpoint, electrification can reinforce other transportation initiatives:– Vehicle downscaling– Car sharing / bike sharing / anything sharing– Mass transit– Freight delivery efficiency


How do electric vehicles fit into Net Zero Cities?

• From a transportation standpoint, electrification can reinforce other transportation initiatives:– Vehicle downscaling– Car sharing / bike sharing / anything sharing– Mass transit– Freight delivery efficiency

• From an energy standpoint, electrification decouples energy generation from energy use, allowing:– Diversification– Fleet emissions reductions


How do electric vehicles fit into Net Zero Cities

• This discussion will focus on personal cars

• It’s important to remember that for these, the primary competition is between electricity and gasoline

• The analysis looks at ‘conventional’ electricity as a starting point




Recent emissions trends

• Grid emissions of criteria pollutants like NOx and SO2 have decreased rapidly as regulations have tightened.

• Grid emissions of CO2 have decreased, but not as rapidly.

• It is unclear what will happen as explicit CO2 regulations are implemented, but there is significant potential for reductions.


Generation sources (National)


SO2 emissions reductions


NOx emissions reductions


CO2 emissions reductions


CO2 emissions reductions

50 mpg


Generation sources (NW-Central)




Future potential

• Current policy will significantly decrease NOx emissions, SO2 emissions, and other emissions not described above.

• CO2 emissions are expected to decrease under current policy.

• There is the potential for significant CO2 reductions under different policy scenarios.


Projected SO2 emissions (preliminary)


Projected NOx emissions (preliminary)


Projected CO2 emissions (preliminary)


Projected CO2 emissions (preliminary)

50 mpg


• Background• Aggregation levels• Recent emission trends• Future potential• Wrap-up


Wrap-up

Marcus Alexander

[email protected]


Backup: Non-road applications


EPRI Non-road Electric Transportation Program

Airports– Ground support

equipment– Ground power

Mining– EV’s and Conveyers

Rail– Locomotives, cranes

Agriculture– All terrain vehicles– Tractors

Warehouses– Forklifts– Truck

refrigeration unitsTruck Stops

– Shore Power– On-board power

Seaports– Cranes– Cargo handling– Ships/Dredges

Construction


Backup: Aggregation levels


Aggregation levels

• Looking at statewide emissions doesn’t work well; there is too much sharing of electricity between states.

• National emissions are generally the best way to look at trends, but doesn’t provide regional detail, which can be quite interesting.

• For its REGEN model, EPRI created a set of region definitions that group states into blocks that represent electricity flows


State emissions intensity


State electricity trade


REGEN regions


REGEN regions


Backup: 2 decades of emissions


SOx


NOx


CO2


Backup: Net emissions and air quality changes (from 2007

study)


Net Changes in Criteria Emissions Due to PHEVs (2030 modeling)

Power Plant Emissions

• Emissions under caps (SO2, NOx, Hg) are essentially unchanged

• Primary PM emissions increase (defined by a performance standard)

Vehicle Emissions

• NOx, VOC, SO2, PM all decrease

• Significant NOx, VOC reductions at vehicle

tailpipe

• Reduction in refinery and related emissions

SOx NOx VOC PM

Power Plant -16284 58916 0 49434

Distributed Upstream 0 -1293 -103323 -101

Refinery and Other Station-ary

-23549 -20076 -17804 -3282

On-Road Vehicle -7716 -236292 -234342 -9255

-375,000

-325,000

-275,000

-225,000

-175,000

-125,000

-75,000

-25,000

25,000

75,000

Em

issi

ons

(tons)

-47,549 -198,745 -355,469 36,796


Air quality impacts of PEVs

Change in 8-Hour Ozone Design Value (ppb)PHEV Case – Base Case


-26,114 -61,508 -54,963 -188,166

PHEVs Improve Overall Air & Water Quality

Reduced Deposition of Sulfates, Nitrates, Nitrogen, Mercury

Sulfate (ton) Nitrate (ton) Nitrogen (ton N) Mercury (g)

Disbenefit below Thresh-old

4561.92 3395.52 233.28 28693.4399999999

Disbenefit above Thresh-old

23211.36 1581.12 0 19712.16

Benefit below Threshold -12415.68 -20995.2 -22783.68 -90201.6

Benefit above Threshold -41472 -45489.6 -32412.96 -146370.24

-225,000

-175,000

-125,000

-75,000

-25,000

25,000

Change in U

.S.

Deposit

ion F

lux (

Unit

s S

pecifi

ed B

elo

w)

Technology

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