Restoration Potential Restoration Potential Model Model

Chris LeuchtenburgChris Leuchtenburg

Massachusetts Riverways ProgramMassachusetts Riverways Program

A statewide GIS Model to assess potential A statewide GIS Model to assess potential stream restoration projects at dam sites.stream restoration projects at dam sites.

AgendaAgenda

ObjectivesObjectives Two ApproachesTwo Approaches

Watershed AnalystWatershed Analyst ArcHydroArcHydro

Quality Issues and Quality Issues and ControlControl

Use of the ModelUse of the Model

““There’s not one thing any of us in resource There’s not one thing any of us in resource management can do management can do that will restore fish and aquatic habitat faster that will restore fish and aquatic habitat faster than than removing a dam.” removing a dam.” John Nelson, Fisheries John Nelson, Fisheries BiologistBiologist

Dam Impoundments are not Dam Impoundments are not LakesLakes

Dam Failure Risk To HabitatDam Failure Risk To HabitatDam Failure Risk To HabitatDam Failure Risk To Habitat

More than 3,000 DamsMore than 3,000 Dams

Where to start?Which dams to visit first?How to communicate about stream

restoration?How to motivate advocates?How to evaluate restoration projects?What data will support funding

proposals?How to measure results?

Environmental Impacts Environmental Impacts ModelModel

Fragmentation – upstream river length that Fragmentation – upstream river length that would be opened if dam removedwould be opened if dam removed

Inundation – length of former river habitat Inundation – length of former river habitat currently in impoundmentcurrently in impoundment

Degradation – hydrologic residence timeDegradation – hydrologic residence time

Limited ResultsLimited Results Incomplete and inaccurate dams dataIncomplete and inaccurate dams data Data extent limited to Massachusetts Data extent limited to Massachusetts Routed Stream Centerline data Routed Stream Centerline data unavailable for 5 Major Watershedsunavailable for 5 Major Watersheds Unsupported, old software tools Unsupported, old software tools (Watershed Analyst, ArcView 3.x)(Watershed Analyst, ArcView 3.x) Able to fully model 53% of 3,008 dams Able to fully model 53% of 3,008 dams with this approachwith this approach Cumbersome, mistake prone processCumbersome, mistake prone process

New ApproachNew Approach Extended beyond state boundariesExtended beyond state boundaries

Replaced Watershed Analyst with ArcHydroReplaced Watershed Analyst with ArcHydro Replaced incomplete Routed Centerlines data with MA and Replaced incomplete Routed Centerlines data with MA and

USGS (NHD) stream centerlinesUSGS (NHD) stream centerlines Supplemented MassGIS elevation data with USGS data.Supplemented MassGIS elevation data with USGS data. Obtained data from neighboring statesObtained data from neighboring states

ArcHydro software reduced watershed ArcHydro software reduced watershed delineation mistakes.delineation mistakes.

Automated procedure with ArcGIS Automated procedure with ArcGIS ModelbuilderModelbuilder Reduced errorsReduced errors Ensure consistencyEnsure consistency Accurate documentationAccurate documentation Enable ‘what if’ changes in scoringEnable ‘what if’ changes in scoring Enable rerun as data improvesEnable rerun as data improves

Expanded MetricsExpanded Metrics Incorporated additional data Incorporated additional data More focus on aquatic habitats More focus on aquatic habitats

ProcedureProcedure Obtain and process input dataObtain and process input data Delineate watersheds and Delineate watersheds and subwatersheds for damssubwatersheds for dams

By Major WatershedBy Major Watershed ArcHydro extension to ArcGISArcHydro extension to ArcGIS

Three sets of statewide Three sets of statewide ModelBuilder modelsModelBuilder models

Data ManagementData Management GeoprocessingGeoprocessing ScoringScoring

Quality AssessmentQuality Assessment

Data SourcesData Sources DamsDams: : ODS and four ODS and four neighboring statesneighboring states ElevationElevation: : MassGIS MassGIS and USGS (NED)and USGS (NED) CenterlinesCenterlines: : DFG DFG and USGS (NHD)and USGS (NHD) RoadsRoads: : EOT and four EOT and four neighboring statesneighboring states Living WatersLiving Waters: : NHESPNHESP Coldwater Coldwater StreamsStreams: : DFGDFG

Restoration Benefit FactorsRestoration Benefit Factors

Connectivity Improvement Extent Connectivity Improvement Extent Length of stream centerline in dam subwatershed Length of stream centerline in dam subwatershed

(10)(10) Fisheries HabitatFisheries Habitat

Presence of coldwater stream in dam subwatershed Presence of coldwater stream in dam subwatershed (5)(5)

Number of dams downstream to the ocean (5)Number of dams downstream to the ocean (5) Head of tide (5)Head of tide (5)

Water QualityWater Quality Living Waters in dam subwatershed (5)Living Waters in dam subwatershed (5) Road Density (10)Road Density (10)

Success!Success! Statewide Restoration Statewide Restoration

Benefit score for 2600 dam Benefit score for 2600 dam sites.sites. All Major Watersheds except All Major Watersheds except

Cape and IslandsCape and Islands New DataNew Data

Dam WatershedsDam Watersheds Dam SubwatershedsDam Subwatersheds

Attributes of DamsAttributes of Dams Coldwater stream in Coldwater stream in

subwatershedsubwatershed Road density in watershedRoad density in watershed Number of dams downstream to Number of dams downstream to

oceanocean Head of tideHead of tide

Flexible scoring toolsFlexible scoring tools

Wisconsin MetricsWisconsin Metrics

Dam on headwatersDam on headwaters Dam in highest quartile of dams per Dam in highest quartile of dams per

mile in watershedmile in watershed Endangered speciesEndangered species Four levels of sport fishFour levels of sport fish 303d impairment caused by dam303d impairment caused by dam Outstanding/Exceptional resource Outstanding/Exceptional resource

streamsstreams Connect score (upstream and Connect score (upstream and

downstream)downstream)

Model LimitationsModel Limitations

Abstraction DistortionAbstraction Distortion This pertains to all computer models of the environment. In order to model an aspect This pertains to all computer models of the environment. In order to model an aspect

of the environment, it has to first be abstracted into values and shapes that cannot of the environment, it has to first be abstracted into values and shapes that cannot reflect the true diversity of the natural world.reflect the true diversity of the natural world.

Data LimitationsData Limitations The location of dams, missing or inaccurate centerlines and incorrect attributes in the The location of dams, missing or inaccurate centerlines and incorrect attributes in the

dams data produce errors.dams data produce errors. Software LimitationsSoftware Limitations

A.K.A. bugs and requirements. A.K.A. bugs and requirements. Metric SelectionMetric Selection

The results would be altered by the inclusion of different metrics (excluding Living The results would be altered by the inclusion of different metrics (excluding Living Waters, replacing road density with impervious surfaces or adding 303d) Waters, replacing road density with impervious surfaces or adding 303d)

Metrics are limited to the data available.Metrics are limited to the data available. Metric WeightingMetric Weighting

The results would also be changed by shifted the weighting of the metrics. The results would also be changed by shifted the weighting of the metrics. Procedural ErrorsProcedural Errors

The modeler may make mistakes in the use of the software or in the development of The modeler may make mistakes in the use of the software or in the development of the model scripts.the model scripts.

InterpretationInterpretation A model created to identify opportunities may be mistaken for a proposed list of A model created to identify opportunities may be mistaken for a proposed list of

projects. A dam with a high Restoration Potential score is a good candidate for projects. A dam with a high Restoration Potential score is a good candidate for assessment, but even a cursory assessment may deem it to be a poor candidate for a assessment, but even a cursory assessment may deem it to be a poor candidate for a project. This is the most difficult source of error to control.project. This is the most difficult source of error to control.

Quality Issues and Quality Issues and ProcessesProcesses

Check all watersheds less than Check all watersheds less than 20,000 square meters20,000 square meters

Tag secondary structures Tag secondary structures (dikes)(dikes)

Move misplaced dams Move misplaced dams Tag errors Tag errors ‘‘Nudge’ unresponsive damsNudge’ unresponsive dams Rerun watershed delineationRerun watershed delineation

Stream surveys add small dams Stream surveys add small dams and verify dams and verify dams Missing or incorrect attributesMissing or incorrect attributes

Watershed Delineation Variation

Sample TestingSample Testing Strong statistical Strong statistical

Pearson correlation to Pearson correlation to ranking of 35 dams by ranking of 35 dams by Riverways staff (Tim Riverways staff (Tim and Brian.)and Brian.)

Review of highest Review of highest scoring dams with scoring dams with alternative metrics alternative metrics

Stimulated interest in Stimulated interest in new locations.new locations.

Maps are effective Maps are effective communication tools.communication tools.

Using the Restoration Using the Restoration Potential ModelPotential Model

Input to prioritizationInput to prioritization Site visitsSite visits Project proposalsProject proposals

Communications toolCommunications tool Full presentation for Full presentation for

restoration plannersrestoration planners Background or input to Background or input to

restoration discussion restoration discussion with broader audiencewith broader audience

Dams in River ContextDams in River Context Source of informationSource of information

Data for grant proposalsData for grant proposals Measure and track Measure and track

progressprogress

Dam SubwatershedsDam Subwatershedswith Coldwater Streamswith Coldwater Streams

Subwatershed Areas

Next Steps:Next Steps:Model ImprovementModel Improvement

Continually improve dam data: Continually improve dam data: periodically rerun model.periodically rerun model.

Improve accuracy of ‘dams downstream’Improve accuracy of ‘dams downstream’ ModelBuilder structure enables rapid ModelBuilder structure enables rapid change and multiple variationschange and multiple variations

Identify headwaters streamsIdentify headwaters streams Fish passage: ladders, lifts, trucks, etc.Fish passage: ladders, lifts, trucks, etc.

Reconsider Community ValueReconsider Community Value Identify flood control damsIdentify flood control dams Check hydroelectric and water supply damsCheck hydroelectric and water supply dams Impoundments feature class editingImpoundments feature class editing