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What is coming next afterLTE and IMT-Advanced– An Industry Perspective –
Werner MohrHead of Research Alliances
1 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
Werner MohrHead of Research Alliances
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Outline
• Trends in mobile and wireless communications− Traffic growth and economic impact− Technology
• Requirements on future radio systems• Approach for future radio systems
− Main concepts− Base stations− Ubiquitous connectivity
2 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
− Ubiquitous connectivity• Machine-to-Machine / Internet of Things / Sensor-based systems• Energy efficiency• Future directions• Conclusions
The pace of change in the ICT industry
WWW
1st UMTS
IPV6
3 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
Prediction is very difficult, especially if it‘s about the future
Network
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
Bandwidth hunger is ever increasingVideo & TV drive needs
50100 50 100Application bandwidth demands
Multiview 3D SDTV
Multiview 3D HDTV150 200 250 300
Mbps
Ultra HDTV
Super HDTV
Stereo 3D HDTVSharing/conferencing/collaboration
4 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
upstreamdownstream
Stereo 3D SDTVHD Video calling
Stereo 3D HDTV
7680 x 43204096 x 2160
1920x 10801920x 1080
HDTVStereo 3D
HDTVSuper HDTV
1920x 1080
Multiview 3D HDTV
Ultra HDTV
HDTV
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
Worldwide Internet audienceStatus: March 2011
North America:272.1 million (13.0 %)
Europe:476.2 million (22.7 %)
5 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
Latin America:215.0 million (10.3 %)
Middle East & Africa:187.2 million (9.0 %)
Asia Pacific:944.3 million (45.0 %)
Source: Internet statistics: http://www.internetworldstats.com/ .
More than 2 billion Internet users world
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Internet traffic growth is huge
40
60
80
100
Global FIXED traffic (ExaByte/month)
ResidentialUnicast TV
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Global MOBILE traffic (ExaByte/month)
ResidentialInternet
BusinessInternet
Voice
Handhelddata traffic
LaptopData Traffic
Voice
6 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
Source: Analyst reports and Nokia Siemens Networks
0
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150.0
0.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
InternetVoiceTraffic
VoiceTraffic
Fixed broadband trafficis 40x mobile in 2015
Mobile data trafficgrows 300 fold
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Drivers of the Future Internet
Applications and Content changed
Personal TV
Community Social WebVoIPNavigationGamingIPTV
Future Internet WLANWiMAXHSPA/LTE
7 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
Future Internet faces challenges beyond the original design
Mobile and multi-access Devices
WLANWiMAXHSPA/LTE
Mobile broadband driving need for better network quality & efficiency
8 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
Source: Analyst reports and Nokia Siemens Networks
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Identified frequency spectrum
9 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
Potentially, additional allocation in CEPT countries under discussion
Potentially, additional allocation in CEPT countries under discussion
• WRC 2007 identified additional frequency bands for mobile and wireless communications
• Preparation for WRC 2012 ongoing to get agenda item for WRC 2016• WRC 2016 may discuss and identify additional frequency spectrum
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: ITU-R
Performance evolution by ‘simply’ shrinkingtransistor size becomes more difficult
1µm
10µm
100µmTechnology evolution (half-pitch)
0.7x 100 Mill.
1 Bill.
10 Bill.
100 Bill.
Transistors per chip (Moore‘s law)
2.0x every 2 years
10 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
1nm
10nm
100nm
1980 1990 2000 2010 20201970
0.7x every 2 years
10 000
100 000
1 Mill.
10 Mill.
1980 1990 2000 2010 20201970
2 years
Physical limits of atomic structure for scaling transistors while still managing power and thermals drive new approaches
Source: AMD, IBM, Intel processor roadmaps and datasheets
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Strong limitations in clock speed & powerImproving performance trough parallelism
Transistors [000]
µP evolution from single-core to multi-core
100000
1000000
10000000
100000000
11 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
Cores are the new transistors
Number of cores per chip doubles every two years ““# Cores
Power[W]
Clock[MHz]Transistors [000]
1
10
100
1000
10000
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Source: AMD, IBM, Intel processor roadmaps and datasheets
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Basic technology evolution - the foundation
Do thelaws hold?
AdvancedIO technologies
UnlimitedProcessing
IT everywhereUnlimitedStorage
12 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
SecureNetworks & services
AdvancedIO technologies
Privacyby design
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
Unlimited processing
Paradigm shift from sequential to parallel processing will enable unlimited processing capacities
Parallelism will have changed SW design principles and application environments
Processing resources get centralized in the cloud –with geographic redundancy
13 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
CPU Server Cluster Grid
Virtualization
Core
App App …
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
Radio networks will be pushed to Gigabits on the move
Spectral Efficiency byextreme beam formingand coordinated transmission
Heterogeneous networksSmart integration of local area technologies for traffic growth and high data rates will provide ubiquitous access
14 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
All access standards with programmability. Very compact and widebandfuture radios
Three times licensed bandwidth for mobile communications by 2020
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
Miniaturization continues and enables abundant computing & storage capacities
32 nm half-pitch 7 nm half-pitch
• 256 cores / CPU
2010 2020Moore’s law
Processing • 8 cores / CPU
15 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
Source: IDC digital universe study
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
• 256 cores / CPU• Human brain
• 100 $ / TB• Located in
clients
• 1$ / TB• 30 % in the
cloud*
Processing
Storage
• 8 cores / CPU• 1000$ PC
computeequivalent: Spider
Innovations ahead in photonics and IOSustainability remains a challenge
• Optics into line cards
• 10 Tbps / fiber
• Optics into CPUs• 60 Tbps / fiber
• HD planar 3D • UHD volumetric
2010 2020Photonics
Advanced IO
16 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
• HD planar 3D• 2k pixel/$• Touch input
• UHD volumetric 3D
• 64k pixel/$• Natural language
• 0,8 Gt CO2*• 100 Gbps/kW
• 1.5 Gt CO2*• 600 Gbps/kW
Advanced IO
Sustainability
Source: Global ICT footprint, Smart 2020 report
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Traffic growth and changing usage define requirementsDiversity of applications demands flexibility
Majority of all traffic will be streaming of media
Real-time cloud services requirelow latency
Communication technologies
are absorbed in all areas of our lives
17 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
Sharing drives upstream requirements
Explosion of communication endpointswith billions of connected objects
But we have to expect the unexpected…
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
What will the world want from wireless beyond 2020?
Support up to 1000 times more traffic
Rock solid, ubiquitous connectivity
Mobile data traffic forecast
2010 20151 EB
1000x1000 EB
2020
©2011 Intuitive Surgical, Inc.
18 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
Gbps peak speeds
Millisecond latency for true “local feel”
Super HDHD
Ultra HD3D HD
3D SDTV
100Mbps 200Mbps 3000Mbps
Apps bandwidth demand
©2011 Intuitive Surgical, Inc.
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
By 2020 – radio can reduce latency 10x
The main benefit is realized when
Radio latency can be pushed to 1 ms in 2020 by using a shorter frame length
15 ms
20 ms
Latency in radio networks
19 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
realized when content is close. 1 ms limits fiber length to 100 km.
Enable low-latency M2M solutions0 ms
5 ms
10 ms
HSPA LTE “B4G“
Air interfaceBase station UE
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
By 2020 - radio can improve in spectral efficiency 10x
Efficiency is not limited by
Spectral efficiency can be improved by managing inter-cell interference.
6
8
Spectral efficiency [bps/Hz/cell]
20 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
limited by Shannon but by inter-cell interference.
Cell edge data rates improve twice as much
0
2
4
LTE2x2
LTEAdvanced
4x4
+ CoMP + UEinterferencecancelation
+ furtherinnovations
HSPA today
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
By 2020 - there can be 10x more spectrum available
10 times more spectrum can be
Evolution of available radio spectrumUnlic 5GHzUnlic 2.4GHz3700 MHz3400 MHz2600 MHz
1500MHz
21 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
spectrum can be made available if we drive for it.
Cognitive radio enables optimized spectrum usage over multiple operators
2600 MHz2300 MHz
2100 MHz1800 MHz900 MHz800 MHz700 MHz450 MHz
2010 2012 2015 2020
500MHz
1000MHz
2100 MHz TDD
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
By 2020 - there will be 10x more base stations
80 % will be microcell or
Number of cellular base stations grows to over 50 Million
Global base station forecast
30 Mn
40 Mn
50 Mn
22 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
microcell or smaller
Additionally more than 500 Million WiFi APs2010 2020
0 Mn
10 Mn
20 Mn
30 Mn
2015 Micro, Pico, Femto BTS Macro BTS
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
Bringing all together allows up to 1000 times more capacity
10 xPerformance
10 x Spectrum
10 x Base stations
1000xcapacity
23 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
capacity
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
How can we build this?
Radio frequencyBandwidth capability of base stations
2MHz
200MHz
60MHz
20MHzContinuous growth of
System on Chip enables small radios, low power consumption & integration of intelligent functions. SDR is no problem for digital processing!
Laws of physics determine antenna size
24 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
Switched mode power amplifier, high-voltage GaAs HBT and GaN technologies for wideband radios with multicarrier capabilities
2MHz
1990 2000 2010 2020
Continuous growth of computing power with Moore‘s law
2Mn
60Bn
60Mn
1990 2000 2010 2020
2Bn
For same performance, antenna size does not get smaller. Size even increases if beamforming is required
1990 2000 2010 2020
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
How can we deploy, commission and maintain all the radios, frequency bands and layers?
All cells and frequency layers automatically managed by advanced SON
All spectrum underunified RRM for instant
Virtually one ubiquitous connectivity
25 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
All spectrum underunified RRM for instant capacity and coverage optimization
Cognitive networks will reduce errors, improve quality and lower operation and energy costs
Heterogeneous access networks will enableubiquitous broadband coverage
Gigabits on the move with “beyond 4G”
Licensed & unlicensed spectrum
26 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
FTTx for homes, enterprises & backhaul
Large & small cells
FTTx DSL
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
Gigabit ExperienceReliable, Efficient and Personal
Unified RadioResourceManagement
CognitiveNetworks
UbiquitousConnectivity
27 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
Liquid RadioWidebandMultiradio
Multi-Standard
HeterogenousNetworks
Self Organized Networks
Multi-Carrier
Active Antennas
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
M2M / Internet of Things / Sensor based systems
Billionsof devices Evolution of Internet
2010 …..
Everythingconnected
• Mobility, pervasiveness, scalability• Data deluge (Web 2.0, P2P, M2M, 3D, …)• Heterogeneity of devices (e.g. RFIDs, sensors)
Reports
Example:Fleet Monitoring – Functional Architecture
28 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: EU Commission / Nokia Siemens Networks
2010 2014 …..EU Commission Send notification in response
to pre-defined triggers
Control Room Operator
GPS location
Transport Units
Containers with RFID
LocationNotification
Container Sensors
Vehicle Sensors
GIS Spatial Database
Data Centre
Location Map
Console Unit
Nokia Siemens Networks
• Such systems essential for Future Internet applications and solutions for societal challenges such as− Smart energy− Smart traffic− eHealth− etc.
Estimate for global annual CO2 emissions of mobile network elements
Secondary energy
Mobile CS Core
Mobile PS Core
Transport
IP Core
10 kW1 kW0.1 W
29 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
Secondary energyusage of deliveryand supply chainUsers
5 billion0.33 GW
3.5 million x 1.5 kW5.25 GW
12000 x 10 kW0.12 GW
1.7 MtCO2/year
23.3 MtCO2/year
Secondary energyusage for construction
0.6 MtCO2/year
Mobile PS Core IP Core
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
Physical layer – Shannon law• Associated with traffic growth energy consumption in communication networks is
expected to increase• Energy consumption results in significant economic cost factor for network operation• Today’s mobile communication systems designed under paradigm
− of high spectral efficiency and peak throughput− with respect to the limited available frequency spectrum
• Physical layer is approaching the Shannon limit• Future ICT networks and systems to be designed
− to be more energy efficient and−
30 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
− to be more energy efficient and− with reduced operational cost
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
T/B
S/(N ΔCIR) [dB]
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
T/B
S/(N ΔCIR) [dB]
Operating rangeof today‘s systems with adaptive modulation
S/(BN0F) [dB]
Physical layer – Shannon lawS2/S1 [dB]
-15,0
-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
5 10 15 20 25 3530 40 45 50-20 dB-10 dB0 dB10 dB
FNBS
⋅⋅ 01
1 [dB]Parameter
31 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
−
⋅⋅
+⋅⋅⋅
⋅= 112
1
01
1
1
01
1
2
1
2B
B
FNBS
SFNB
BB
SS
B2/B1
-25,0
-20,0 20 dB30 dB
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
• Conflicting requirements between− high spectral efficiency and− low energy consumption
Overall primary power of network• Signal processing and
transport taken into account in addition to RF power amplifier
Entire signalProcessing
exceptRF amplifier
RF amplifierPt
Pprim, RFPprim, ex RF
Pprim
η
η⋅= RFprimt PP ,
ηt
exRFprimRFprimexRFprimprimPPPPP +=+= ,,,
ηα t
exRFprimPP ⋅=,
32 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
Same peak throughput, cellular system
-8,00-6,00-4,00-2,000,002,004,00
n = 2n = 2.5n = 3n = 3.5n = 4
α = 0.01
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Δ [dB]Σprim, total [dB]
Propagationcoefficient
Same area capacity, cellular system
-20,0000
-15,0000
-10,0000
-5,0000
0,00001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 Serie
s1Series2Series3Series4Series5
Δ [dB]5 10 15 3020 250Σprim, total [dB]
-4.50
-9.00
-13.50
-18.00
0.00
α = 0.01
n = 2n = 2.5n = 3n = 3.5n = 4
Multi-hop systems
• Single-hop system (LOS)
• Multi-hop system (LOS)
• Total transmit power savings for same antenna gains and different path loss exponents
[ ]dB =Σ
[dB]
33 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
[ ]
[ ]dBNN
dB
n
hopmultitotalprim
+
+⋅
⋅=
=Σ −
1
1
log10
,,
α
α
-14-12-10
-8-6-4-20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
N – Number of hops
Propagationcoefficient
n = 2n = 2.5n = 3n = 3.5n = 4
α = 0.01
Σpr
im, t
otal
mul
ti-ho
p[d
B]
• New challenging requirements for improved user experience− to increase cell edge throughput and− average cell capacity
New directions I
Interference avoidance through high reuse factors
Interference shaping and exploitation through distributed
MIMO and relaying
Interference suppression through classical MIMO
34 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
BMBF EASY-C project
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks / BMBF EASY-C project
• More balanced throughput across deployment area requires− interference mitigation techniques and− new deployment concepts combined with complex signal processing (CoMP –
Cooperative Multipoint)
• New concepts like cognitive radio getting more attention due to− limited available identified frequency spectrum and− a more flexible regulatory approach for the allocation of frequency bands
• SON – Self-Organising Networks to manage complexity• Future Internet applications increasingly require
− short-range communication systems− M2M / Internet of Things / Sensor based systems
• Increasing data traffic as well as concerns on climate change and CO2
New directions II
35 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
• Increasing data traffic as well as concerns on climate change and CO2emissions result in requirements to improve energy-efficiency of ICT systems
• Societal challenges on the agenda to investigate, how ICT systems can support• more efficient use of energy and resources• in other sectors of the economy and society
• ICT research subjects will address more interdisciplinary topics
IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
Conclusions
• Traffic in mobile and wireless communication systems is significantly increasing• Traffic growth in relation to flat rate billing models result in economic challenges• Technology developments in chip technology and architectures supporting
increased system complexity• Future systems for ubiquitous connectivity will provide
− increased throughput,− short-range communications,− M2M / Internet of Things / Sensor based systems and
36 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
− M2M / Internet of Things / Sensor based systems and− heterogeneous networks
for the Future Internet• Future systems based on optimized integration of major building blocks
− multicarrier radio systems, multi-standard networks, heterogeneous and self-organized networks
− active antennas, wideband radio systems and liquid radio− unified radio resource management and cognitive networks
• Energy efficiency is a new major concern in research and development
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
37 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011
Acknowledgement
The presenter would like to acknowledge the contributions from his colleagues at Nokia Siemens Networks to this presentation.
38 © Nokia Siemens Networks 2011 IEEE Communication Theory Workshop 2011, Sitges, Spain, June 20 to 22, 2011
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks