Where are we Pinoy’s on long-term thinking? An Exploration of Alternative Futures

Prof. Shermon Cruz University Center for Research and Development

Northwestern University;Director, Center for Engaged Foresight

“I do not write for this generation. I am writing for other ages. If this could read me, they would burn my books, the work of my whole life. On the other hand, the generation which interprets these writings will be an educated generation; they will understand me and say: ‘Not all were asleep in the night-time of our grandparents’.”

The Philosopher Tasio, in Noli Me Tangere.

“Will the Philippine Islands continue to be a Spanish colony, and if so, what kind of colony? Will they

become a province of Spain, with or without autonomy? And to reach this stage, what kind of

sacrifices will have to be made? Will they be separated from the mother country to live independently, to fall into the hands of other nations, or to ally themselves

with neighboring powers?”

“It is impossible to reply to these questions, for to all of them both yes and no may be

answered, according to the time desired to be covered. When there is in nature no fixed

condition, how much less must there be in the life of a people, beings endowed with mobility

and movement! So it is that in order to deal with these questions, it is necessary to presume an unlimited period of time, and in accordance

therewith try to forecast future events.”

“Nevertheless, it is not well to trust to accident, for there is sometimes an imperceptible and

incomprehensible logic in the workings of history. Fortunately, peoples as well as

governments are subject to it. Therefore, we repeat, and we will ever repeat, while there is

time, that it is better to keep pace with the desires of a people than to give way before

them: the former begets sympathy and love, the latter contempt and anger. “ (Rizal, 1912,

Escolta)

“Perhaps the country will revive the maritime and mercantile life for which the islanders are fitted by their nature, ability and instincts, and

once more free, like the bird that leaves its cage, like the flower that unfolds to the air, will recover the pristine virtues that are gradually dying out

and will again become addicted to peace—cheerful, happy, joyous, hospitable and daring.”

Jose Rizal, 1898

1978

Alternative futures for the PhilippinesSohail InayatullahFuturesVolume 20, Issue 4 August 1988, Pages 434–442

“It is concluded, however, that an authoritarian and élitist future for the Philippines is becoming increasingly likely.”

Inayatullah, 1988

1999 Bacolod City

Grounded, Indigenous, Contextual, Applied, Governance, Cultural, Community,

Pluralistic, Global

Engaged Foresight’s Futures Thinking Practice

Small things are indeed beautiful!

High Long Term Short Term

emphasis on persistence emphasis on quick results

relationships ordered by status status not a major issue in relationships

personal adaptability important personal steadfastness and stability important

face considerations common but seen as a weakness protection of one’s face is important

leisure time not too important leisure time important

save, be thrifty spend

invest in real estate invest in mutual funds

relationships and market position important bottom line important

good or evil depnds on circumstances belief in absolutes about good and evil

Traits of Long Term / Short Term

China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Brazil, India, Thailand, Singapore are long-term oriented (strong tendency to value persistence, perseverance, saving and being able to adapt)

While the Philippines and the United States are considered short-term oriented societies (strong tendency to value tradition, the current social hierarchy, and fulfilling social obligations. Tendency to care more about immediate gratification than long-term fulfillment)

Source: Marcus Bussey, 2013

Source: Marcus Bussey, 2013

Does the language you speak really affect the way you see the future?

Or does it make you feel that tomorrow is far away?

Apparently, YES!

The way we discuss and understand the future varies from language to language.

Bad at planning for the future? You might be able to blame your language.

Languages that grammatically associate the future and the present, foster future-oriented behavior

(Chen, 2013)

That those languages that foster future oriented behaviors save more, retire with more wealth, smoke less, practice safer sex, and are less obese (Chen, 2013)

Surprising as it sounds, Chen’s findings fit nicely with a linguistics theory called Whorfianism, which argues that words don’t just describe our thoughts; they also shape them.

circumfix = ma + an = indicates the act that the referred must undergo or if it

were an actor, that the actor(s) will have to undergo to achieve an imagined alternative or preferred future

A Call to Action! Creating the Future Together!

• Explore the conditions for the acquisition of futures literacy and organize the Philippines Futures Literacy Project to improve our narrative capacity, our capacity to reframe and use collective intelligence (learners experience should be at the center of this project) in using the future differently (Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2011)

• Organize, host or attend a local, regional or global strategic foresight courses for organizations and decision-makers (public and private);

• Integrate anticipatory thinking and strategic foresight in decision-making, strategic planning, innovation and design to create alternatives and transform the future of….

Recommendations

• Study Jose Rizal’s writings and ideas in a futures context or perhaps publish a book with the same title– The Philippines A Century Hence 2.0? that explores the future of the Philippines in the next 100 (deep futures)

• Create an ordinance or resolution that celebrates and sponsor local World Futures Day event to advance dialog about the future in your area (March 1st)

Recommendations

• Organize some Youth Futures Exchange Programs (future generation thinking!)

• Use Futures Research Tools and Methods (action research) to unpack, analyze and improvise solutions and design new city governance approaches, etc.

• Become an ‘early adopter’ and set the standard or model for futures-oriented governance or futures learning in the country, in the Asia-Pacific and the world

Recommendations

• Enrich the understanding on how we Pinoy’s envision the future through multiple perspectives and analysis – a morphological analysis of your local word for the future could really help us understand and imagine new ways of using the future differently

• Futures studies and futures must be localized “in the language of participants, in their ways of knowing and experiences” (Inayatullah, 2002) and “local versions of futures studies” too is possible (Kou Hua Chen, 2002)

City Futures

What are our hopes? What our fears?

How will the future impact our cities? How will the future impact the way we live?

A city is not gauged by its length and width, but by the broadness of its vision and the height of its dreams.

Herb Caen

Dios unay ti Agngina!

engagedforesight@gmail.comengagedforesight.com