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WiFi: the Real 4G! Brough Turner netBlazr [email protected]

Wi-Fi is the new 4G

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Brough’s keynote address at the October 2010 4G Wireless Evolution Conference. In it, he argues:1. All key 4G technologies are pioneered by Wi-Fi (3-5 year lead!).2. Wi-Fi will be the dominant solution for mobile data offload.3. 4G technologies represent a wireless tipping point with the result they will revolutionize backhaul and eventually the first mile (via wireless ISPs).He closes with two slides on his new wireless ISP, netBlazr.

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Page 1: Wi-Fi is the new 4G

Wi-­‐Fi:  the  Real  4G!  

Brough  Turner  netBlazr  

[email protected]  

Page 2: Wi-Fi is the new 4G

Wi-­‐Fi                                            Mobile  •  Local,  products  •  Data  centric  •  Sta@onary  or  pedestrian  speeds  

•  Ubiquitous  service  •  Voice  centric  •  Mobile  at  auto  speeds  

2  

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Wi-­‐Fi                                            Mobile  •  Local,  products  •  Data  centric  •  Sta@onary  or  pedestrian  speeds  

•  Many  vendors,  many  market  segments,  billions  of  customers  

•  Ubiquitous  service  •  Voice  centric  •  Mobile  at  auto  speeds  

•  4-­‐6  vendors,    ~300  customers,  1  applica@on  

3  

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Wi-­‐Fi  

• Technology  leadership  • Off-­‐load  solu@on  • Backhaul  &  fixed  wireless  

4  October  2010   4  

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Spectrum  history  •  1920s:    Primi@ve  radio  receivers  –  Needed  to  restrict  who  transmits  

5  

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Spectrum  history  •  1920s:    Primi@ve  radio  receivers  –  Needed  to  restrict  who  transmits  

•  1927-­‐  1934:    Origin  of  FCC,  spectrum  licensing  –  Ensuing  decades  -­‐  almost  all  spectrum  assigned  

–  Three  bands  reserved  for  “junk”  uses  

6  

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Spectrum  history  •  1920s:    Primi@ve  radio  receivers  –  Needed  to  restrict  who  transmits  

•  1927-­‐  1934:    Origin  of  FCC,  spectrum  licensing  –  Ensuing  decades  -­‐  almost  all  spectrum  assigned  

–  Three  bands  reserved  for  “junk”  uses  •  1985:    FCC  authorizes  spread  spectrum  communica@ons  in    the  ISM,  or  “junk”  bands,  i.e.    –  900  MHz,  2.4  GHz,  5.8  GHz  

7  

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Spectrum  history  •  1920s:    Primi@ve  radio  receivers  –  Needed  to  restrict  who  transmits  

•  1927-­‐  1934:    Origin  of  FCC,  spectrum  licensing  –  Ensuing  decades  -­‐  almost  all  spectrum  assigned  

–  Three  bands  reserved  for  “junk”  uses  •  1985:    FCC  authorizes  spread  spectrum  communica@ons  in    the  ISM,  or  “junk”  bands,  i.e.    –  900  MHz,  2.4  GHz,  5.8  GHz  

8  

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Wi-­‐Fi  History  1985   FCC  permits  communica@ons  in  “junk  bands”  at  900  MHz,  2.4  GHz  &  5.8  GHz  

1988  -­‐  1997  IEEE  bodies  iterate;    eventually  publish  first  802.11  spec  Three  alternate  solu@ons  for  1  Mbps  opera@on  with  a  2  Mbps  op@on  

1999   802.11a  –  54  Mbps  at  5.8  GHz  using  OFDM  modula@on  

1999   802.11b  –  11  Mbps  at  2.4  GHz  using  DSSS  modula@on  

1999  Wireless  Ethernet  Compa@bility  Alliance  (WECA)  formed  –  Focuses  on  interoperability  and  a  cer@fica@on  program  

2001   802.11d  –  extends  the  spec  for  other  regulatory  domains  (EU,  Japan,  etc.)  

2003   802.11g  –  54  Mbps  at  2.4  GHz  using  OFDM  modula@on  

2003   WECA    adopts  new  name:    Wi-­‐Fi  Alliance  

9  

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Wi-­‐Fi  History  1985   FCC  permits  communica@ons  in  “junk  bands”  at  900  MHz,  2.4  GHz  &  5.8  GHz  

1988  -­‐  1997  IEEE  bodies  iterate;    eventually  publish  first  802.11  spec  Three  alternate  solu@ons  for  1  Mbps  opera@on  with  a  2  Mbps  op@on  

1999   802.11a  –  54  Mbps  at  5.8  GHz  using  OFDM  modula@on  

1999   802.11b  –  11  Mbps  at  2.4  GHz  using  DSSS  modula@on  

1999  Wireless  Ethernet  Compa@bility  Alliance  (WECA)  formed  –  Focuses  on  interoperability  and  a  cer@fica@on  program  

2001   802.11d  –  extends  the  spec  for  other  regulatory  domains  (EU,  Japan,  etc.)  

2003   802.11g  –  54  Mbps  at  2.4  GHz  using  OFDM  modula@on  

2003   WECA    adopts  new  name:    Wi-­‐Fi  Alliance  

10  

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Addi@onal  highlights  •  1997:    FCC  authorizes  Unlicensed  Na@onal  Informa@on  

Infrastructure  (U-­‐NII)  adding  200  MHz  in  5  GHz  band  

•  2003:    FCC  adds  255  MHz  more  @  5  GHZ;  total  now  555  MHz  

•  2003-­‐2009:    Task  Group  n  works  to  drama@cally  improve  Wi-­‐Fi    performance,  in  part  via  MIMO  and  Beam  forming  

11  

•   2007:    802.11n  drak  2  products        cer@fied  by  the  Wi-­‐Fi  Alliance;    Products  shipping!  

•   2009:    802.11n  spec  approved  

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Addi@onal  highlights  •  1997:    FCC  authorizes  Unlicensed  Na@onal  Informa@on  

Infrastructure  (U-­‐NII)  adding  200  MHz  in  5  GHz  band  

•  2003:    FCC  adds  255  MHz  more  @  5  GHZ;  total  now  555  MHz  

•  2003-­‐2009:    Task  Group  n  works  to  drama@cally  improve  Wi-­‐Fi    performance,  in  part  via  MIMO  and  Beam  forming  

12  

•   2007:    802.11n  drak  2  products        cer@fied  by  the  Wi-­‐Fi  Alliance;    Products  shipping!  

•   2009:    802.11n  spec  approved  

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Addi@onal  highlights  •  1997:    FCC  authorizes  Unlicensed  Na@onal  Informa@on  

Infrastructure  (U-­‐NII)  adding  200  MHz  in  5  GHz  band  

•  2003:    FCC  adds  255  MHz  more  @  5  GHZ;  total  now  555  MHz  

•  2003-­‐2009:    Task  Group  n  works  to  drama@cally  improve  Wi-­‐Fi    performance,  in  part  via  MIMO  and  Beam  forming  

13  

•   2007:    802.11n  drak  2  products        cer@fied  by  the  Wi-­‐Fi  Alliance;    Products  shipping!  

•   2009:    802.11n  spec  approved  

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4  October  2010   14  

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Wi-­‐Fi                                            Mobile  •  Local,  products  •  Data  centric  •  Sta@onary  or  pedestrian  speeds  

•  Many  vendors,  many  market  segments,  billions  of  customers  

•  Ubiquitous  service  •  Voice  centric  •  Mobile  at  auto  speeds  

•  4-­‐6  vendors,    ~300  customers,  1  applica@on  

15  

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ITU’s  Vision  for  3G    (late  90s)  

Satellite  

Macrocell  Microcell  

Urban  In-­‐Building  

Picocell  

Global  

Suburban  

Basic  Terminal  PDA  Terminal  

Audio/Visual  Terminal  

16  

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17  

“3G”  Services  •  Video  telephony  •  Loca@on-­‐based  services  •  Push-­‐to-­‐Talk    (VoIP  w/o  QoS)  •  Rich  presence  (instant  messaging)  •  Fixed-­‐mobile  convergence  (FMC)  

•  IP  Mul@media  Services  (w/  QoS)  –  Video  sharing  (conversa@onal  video  on  IP)  

•  Converged  “All  IP”  networks  –  the  Vision  

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18  

“3G”  Services  •  Video  telephony  •  Loca@on-­‐based  services  •  Push-­‐to-­‐Talk    (VoIP  w/o  QoS)  •  Rich  presence  (instant  messaging)  •  Fixed-­‐mobile  convergence  (FMC)  

•  IP  Mul@media  Services  (w/  QoS)  –  Video  sharing  (conversa@onal  video  on  IP)  

•  Converged  “All  IP”  networks  –  the  Vision  

Limited  adop+on  

Limited  adop+on  

Limited  adop+on  

Limited  adop+on  

Bypassed  !  

No  trac+on  

Too  late  …  

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The  Internet  is  the  killer  plaqorm    

•  Mobile  Internet  access  drives  3G  data  usage  

•  Walled  garden  –  too  late  !  

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20  

iPhone  traffic  

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US  data  traffic  

21  

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US  data  traffic  

22  

=  3.3x  per  year…  

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Global  mobile  data  traffic  

•  Nearly  tripled  between  2Q2009  and  2Q2010    

4  October  2010   23  

Source:    Ericsson,  Aug  2010  

0  

50000  

100000  

150000  

200000  

250000  

2Q2009   2Q2010  

TB/month  

TB/month  

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US  3G  performance  

•  Novarum  Inc.  (1/2010)  – Measurements  in      36  ci@es  (Anaheim,  …,  Boston,  …,  Philly,  …,  Raleigh,  …,  Tempe)  

–  12-­‐2009:    1.5  Mbps  down  

•  Doubles:  ~24  months  

24  

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Increasing  capacity  

25  

Operator  Services  

Femtocell  

Wi-­‐Fi  

1

2

3

4

Internet  

5

1.  Add  Cellsites  ($$$$)  2.  Newer  radios  ($$$)  3.  More  backhaul  ($$$$)  

4.  Femtocells  ($$)  5.    Wi-­‐Fi    ($)  

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Femtocells:    too  livle,  too  late  

•  Primary  users  of  3G/4G  data  also  have  Wi-­‐Fi  – Laptops,  smart  phones  

•  Corporate  IT  prefers  Wi-­‐Fi  they  control  

•  Consumers  deploying  Wi-­‐Fi  anyway  – For  PCs,  for  gaming,  for  home  media  – Pay  extra  to  help  carrier  improve  their  network?  

•  Femtocell’s  do  have  value  for  voice  coverage!  

26  

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Public  Wi-­‐Fi  •  Retail  business  giveaway  – Coffee  shops,  restaurants,  hotels,  retail  – Harvard  Sq.  Business  Associa@on  

27  

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Public  Wi-­‐Fi  •  Retail  business  giveaway  – Coffee  shops,  restaurants,  hotels,  retail  – Harvard  Sq.  Business  Associa@on  

•  Sponsorship  –  loca@ons,  events   By  kumasawa  

28  

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Public  Wi-­‐Fi  •  Retail  business  giveaway  – Coffee  shops,  restaurants,  hotels,  retail  – Harvard  Sq.  Business  Associa@on  

•  Sponsorship  –  loca@ons,  events  •  Carrier  supported  – e.g.  Cablevision’s    Op@mum  Wi-­‐Fi    

By  kumasawa  

29  

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Ad  supported  Wi-­‐Fi    •  Didn’t  work  in  2005;  working  now…    – Costs  way  down;    usage  and  interest  up  

•  Freerunr  in  UK      (&  NL,  RS,  ZA)  – Splash  screens,  limited  free  periods,  …  

•  JiWire  in  US  –  Ad  plaqorm  for  free  Wi-­‐Fi  – Used  by  MS  Bing  na@onwide  Wi-­‐Fi  offer  

•  Sputnik  in  US  –  Ad  supported  model  growing  

30  

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Muni  Wi-­‐Fi,  take  2  

•  Wireless  broadband  access  networks  – Dozens  of  US  ci@es  now  succeeding  

•  Ci@es  bring  real  estate,  look  to  save  current  $  – Communica@ons  for  police  &  other  city  services  

•  Strong  pressure  for  “free”  in  some  form  

31  

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Wi-­‐Fi  will  dominate  off  load  

•  LTE  network  for  coverage,  but  most  data  bytes  via  Wi-­‐Fi  

•  Operator  take  away:                  Sell  ubiquitous  service                  any  place,  any  +me  

       while  integra@ng  seamless  Wi-­‐Fi  data  offload  

4  October  2010   32  

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Backhaul  /  Fixed  wireless  

•  Middle  mile  – Cell  sites  – Fixed  wireless  hubs  

4  October  2010   33  

•   First  mile  −  Homes  and  businesses  

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$220  per  Mbps   $7  per  Mbps  US  Today  

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How  could  wireless  possibly  help?  

•  Limited  capacity  –  .  

•  Licensed  spectrum  expensive  – Only  par@ally  true  

•  Unlicensed  unreliable…  – Not  any  more!  

•  Wi-­‐Fi  doesn’t  go  far  – 20-­‐50  km!    for  <  $500!  

4  October  2010   35  

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How  could  wireless  possibly  help?  

•  Limited  capacity  – 100  Mbps,  300  Mbps,  1  Gbps,  …  

•  Licensed  spectrum  expensive  – Only  par@ally  true  

•  Unlicensed  unreliable…  – Not  any  more!  

•  Wi-­‐Fi  doesn’t  go  far  – 20-­‐50  km!    for  <  $500!  

4  October  2010   36  

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How  could  wireless  possibly  help?  

•  Limited  capacity  – 100  Mbps,  300  Mbps,  1  Gbps,  …  

•  Licensed  spectrum  expensive  – Only  par@ally  true  

•  Unlicensed  unreliable…  – Not  any  more!  

•  Wi-­‐Fi  doesn’t  go  far  – 20-­‐50  km!    for  <  $500!  

4  October  2010   37  

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How  could  wireless  possibly  help?  

•  Limited  capacity  – 100  Mbps,  300  Mbps,  1  Gbps,  …  

•  Licensed  spectrum  expensive  – Only  par@ally  true  

•  Unlicensed  unreliable…  – Not  any  more!  

•  Wi-­‐Fi  doesn’t  go  far  – 20-­‐50  km!    for  <  $500!  

4  October  2010   38  

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How  could  wireless  possibly  help?  

•  Limited  capacity  – 100  Mbps,  300  Mbps,  1  Gbps,  …  

•  Licensed  spectrum  expensive  – Only  par@ally  true  

•  Unlicensed  unreliable…  – Not  any  more!  

•  Wi-­‐Fi  doesn’t  go  far  – 20-­‐50  km!    for  <  $500!  

4  October  2010   39  

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Wireless  @pping  point  •  MIMO  makes  5  GHz  more  useful  than    cellular  or  TV  spectrum  

•  Direc@onal  antennas  or  beam  forming  →  Spa@al  reuse  →  incredible  density  increments  

40  

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Wireless  @pping  point  •  MIMO  makes  5  GHz  more  useful  than    cellular  or  TV  spectrum  

•  Direc@onal  antennas  or  beam  forming  →  Spa@al  reuse  →  incredible  density  increments  

• Wi-­‐Fi  leads  the  way  – Moore’s  law  with  exis@ng  802.11n  spec.  

– New  specs,  e.g.  802.11ac,    ~  Dec  2012  

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42  

Beamforming  •  Select  among  mul@ple  predefined  antenna  elements  – Widely  used    (2G,  3G,  Wi-­‐Fi  –  Vivato,  Ruckus  Wireless)  

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43  

Beamforming  •  Select  among  mul@ple  predefined  antenna  elements  – Widely  used    (2G,  3G,  Wi-­‐Fi  –  Vivato,  Ruckus  Wireless)  

•  Adap@ve  antenna  arrays  –  Compute  phase/amplitude  for  each  antenna  element  

–  Adapts  for  desired  signal  while  also  reducing  interference  

8  antenna  elements  spread  over  3.5  λs,      i.e.  ~18  cm,  or        <  7.5”  at  5.8  GHz  

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44  

Beamforming  •  Select  among  mul@ple  predefined  antenna  elements  – Widely  used    (2G,  3G,  Wi-­‐Fi  –  Vivato,  Ruckus  Wireless)  

•  Adap@ve  antenna  arrays  –  Compute  phase/amplitude  for  each  antenna  element  

–  Adapts  for  desired  signal  while  also  reducing  interference  

8  antenna  elements  spread  over  3.5  λs,      i.e.  ~18  cm,  or        <  7.5”  at  5.8  GHz  

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Beamforming  •  Select  among  mul@ple  predefined  antenna  elements  – Widely  used    (2G,  3G,  Wi-­‐Fi  –  Vivato,  Ruckus  Wireless)  

•  Adap@ve  antenna  arrays  –  Compute  phase/amplitude  for  each  antenna  element  

–  Adapts  for  desired  signal  while  also  reducing  interference  

8  antenna  elements  spread  over  3.5  λs,      i.e.  ~18  cm,  or        <  7.5”  at  5.8  GHz  

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46  

Beamforming  •  Select  among  mul@ple  predefined  antenna  elements  – Widely  used    (2G,  3G,  Wi-­‐Fi  –  Vivato,  Ruckus  Wireless)  

•  Adap@ve  antenna  arrays  –  Compute  phase/amplitude  for  each  antenna  element  

–  Adapts  for  desired  signal  while  also  reducing  interference  

8  antenna  elements  spread  over  3.5  λs,      i.e.  ~18  cm,  or        <  7.5”  at  5.8  GHz  

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Commercial  beamforming    Wi-­‐Fi  beams,  before  silicon  support  …  •  Vivato  (’02-­‐’06)    

–  Technical  success,  but  expensive    –  Connect  with  11g  clients  up  to  2  km  

–  Vivato-­‐to-­‐Vivato  up  to  18  km  

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Commercial  beamforming    Wi-­‐Fi  beams,  before  silicon  support  …  •  Vivato  (’02-­‐’06)    

–  Technical  success,  but  expensive    –  Connect  with  11g  clients  up  to  2  km  

–  Vivato-­‐to-­‐Vivato  up  to  18  km  

•  Ruckus  Wireless  (today)    –  12  elements  –  selec@vely  switched  to    

two  channels  on  2x2  silicon  

–  Drama@cally  outperforms  conven@onal  2x2  systems  

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•  11n  wireless  networking  solu@ons  in  silicon  •  Founded  2006;    customers  include  Netgear  

•  4x4  MIMO  with  beamforming  

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Beamforming  ~2014:    >300  Mbps  Wi-­‐Fi  to  ~1  Km        at  mass  market  prices  …  

4x4  MIMO  with  8    antenna    elements  

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Beamforming  ~2014:    >300  Mbps  Wi-­‐Fi  to  ~1  Km        at  mass  market  prices  …  

4x4  MIMO  with  8    antenna    elements  

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Beamforming  ~2014:    >300  Mbps  Wi-­‐Fi  to  ~1  Km        at  mass  market  prices  …  

4x4  MIMO  with  8    antenna    elements  

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TVWS  –  Beach-­‐front  spectrum?  

•  Ideal  antenna  element    separa@on  >=  ½  wavelength  – 2.1  meters  at  70  MHz  – 21  cm  at  700  MHz  

•  But  only  – 2.5  cm  for  5.8  GHz  Wi-­‐Fi  

Wavion  Networks  

D-­‐Link  DAP-­‐2553  

Ruckus  Wireless  

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ILEC  price  umbrella  

•  >20x  markup  fosters  wireless  bypass  – Typical  WISPs  opera@ng  20%-­‐50%  under    monopolist’s  price  umbrella  

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Wireless  ISPs  

•  >  2000  WISPs,  in  fast  growing  segment  – Most  use  license-­‐  exempt  spectrum  

– Mix  of    pre-­‐WiMAX,    WiMAX    and,  increasingly,    Wi-­‐Fi  gear  

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Wi-­‐Fi  for  wireless  broadband  

•  WISPs  already  use  license-­‐exempt  spectrum  

•  Rapidly  migra@ng  to  11n  technology  – Performance  advantage  is  significant  

•  Drama@cally  lower  cost  –   5x  or  more  vs  WiMAX  or  LTE  systems  

–  Increasing  reliability,  similar  performance  

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Ubiqui@  targets  Wireless  ISPs  

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Ubiqui@  targets  Wireless  ISPs  

Point-­‐to-­‐point  $130-­‐$600  

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Ubiqui@  targets  Wireless  ISPs  

Point-­‐to-­‐point  $130-­‐$600  

Point-­‐to-­‐mul@point  ~$240  &  $68  

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Example  Wi-­‐Fi  Pt-­‐2-­‐Pt  Link  UbiquiR  BULLET-­‐M5-­‐HP  With  28dbi  Grid  Antenna  802.11n  

Purchased  through  distribu@on:  

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Community  WISP,  Inc.  

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•   Wireless  broadband  Internet    access  for  Brevard  County  FL  

•   Served  from  4  loca@ons  

•   900  MHz,  2.4  GHz  &  5  GHz,    i.e.  all  license-­‐exempt  spectrum  

•   30/10  Mbps  in  many  areas  

•   Expanding  into  Volusia  and    Seminole  coun@es  

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•  Focused  radio  links  – 100  Mbps;    50-­‐200  meters  per  hop  

•  Freemium  Model  – Customers  build  our  network  – Premium  services  drive  revenue  

Radically  different  ISP  

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Summary  

•  4G    Wireless  @pping  point  •  Wi-­‐Fi  deploying  key  “4G”  technologies,  first  !  

•  Wi-­‐Fi  will  dominate  3G/4G  data  offload  

•  Wi-­‐Fi  fostering  resurgence  in  independent  ISPs  

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Summary  

•  4G    Wireless  @pping  point  •  Wi-­‐Fi  deploying  key  “4G”  technologies,  first  !  

•  Wi-­‐Fi  will  dominate  3G/4G  data  offload  

•  Wi-­‐Fi  fostering  resurgence  in  independent  ISPs  

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An  end  run  around  the  duopoly,    the  FCC  and  Congress  

opportunity:  

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Thank  You  Brough  Turner  

[email protected]  

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Credits,  References  •  Image  credits,  beyond  those  noted  in-­‐line…  

–  Office  building  facade:      hvp://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Beek100  –  Laptop  icon:    hvp://www.flickr.com/photos/ichibod/  –  Microwave  oven:    hvp://www.flickr.com/photos/code_mar@al/  

•  Other  useful  references  –  Novarum  Inc.  measurements:    hvp://www.novarum.com/[email protected]  

–  NIST  Electromagne@c  Signal  Avenua@on  in  Construc@on  Materials      hvp://fire.nist.gov/bfrlpubs/build97/PDF/b97123.pdf  

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802.11n  in-­‐the-­‐field  •  Ken  Biba:  

–  The  King  is  Dead,  Long  Live  the  King:  802.11n  drama@cally  improves  Wi-­‐Fi  outdoors    

–  Real  world  measurements  show  muni  Wi-­‐Fi  networks  outperform  WiMAX  and  cellular    

•  Tom’s  Hardware  –  Reviews  Ruckus  Wireless  11n  access  point  with  beamforming,  

hvp://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/beamforming-­‐wifi-­‐ruckus,2390.html    

•  Net,  net  –  it  really  works!