Public Attitudes Towards Scotland's Constitutional Future

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The Times Conference

Scotland and the Union: what future?

March 2nd 2012 Public Attitudes Towards Scotland’s

Constitutional Future

2 2 2 2 2 2

Support for

independence…

3

Version 1 | Public (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) Version 1 | Internal Use Only Version 1 | Confidential Version 1 | Strictly Confidential © Ipsos MORI

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Q: Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?

Four in ten Scots voters support independence, but

half oppose it

37%

50%

13% Yes

No

Undecided

39%

50%

11% Yes

No

Undecided

All All who are certain to vote

Base: All (1,005); All certain to vote (780). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012

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Support for independence is higher among men, younger

people and those living in most deprived areas

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ Most deprived

areas

Least deprived

areas

Born in Scotland

Born elsewhere

%

Yes No

Base: All certain to vote (780). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012

5


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Those who oppose independence are more likely to

have made their mind up

74%

26%

Definitely

decided

May change

mind

85%

15%

Definitely

decided

May change

mind

Support independence Oppose independence

Base: All who would vote Yes (292); All who would vote No (418). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012

6


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here Support for independence – 35 year trend

Data collected by Ipsos MORI (previously MORI). Fieldwork conducted face-to-face or by telephone amongc1,000 Scottish adults per wave. Please note, data from 1999-2008 comes from the Scottish Social

Attitudes Survey, conducted face-to-face among c1200-1500 Scottish adults.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

19

78

19

79

19

80

19

81

19

82

19

83

19

84

19

85

19

86

19

87

19

88

19

89

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Su

pp

ort

fo

r in

de

pe

nd

en

ce

(%

)

Introduction of the poll tax

in Scotland Devolution referendum

Scottish Parliament opens

Devolution referendum

SNP form minority

government

SNP form majority

government

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When do you think the referendum should be held?

Almost half of Scots would like the referendum to

be held within the next 18 months

Base: All (1,005); All who would vote Yes (374); All who would vote No (499). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29

January 2012

47%

15%

22%

9%

2% 5%

All

Within next the 18 months

After summer 2013 but before Autumn 2014

Autumn 2014

After Autumn 2014

Never/shouldn't be held

Don't know

4%

4%

10%

9%

11%

63%

5%

*%

8%

39%

16%

31%

0% 25% 50% 75%

Don't know

Never/shouldn't be held

After Autumn 2014

Autumn 2014

After Summer 2013 but before Autumn

2014

Within the next 18 months

Support independence

Oppose independence

8 8 8 8 8 8

Attitudes toward

‘devolution max’…

9 9 9 9 9 9

Of Scots have heard of

„devolution max‟.

65%

10 10 10 10 10 10

Of Scots think that a separate

„devolution max‟ question

should be on the ballot paper.

Of Scots think that the

referendum should only

include a question on

independence.

59%

37%

X X

X

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Q: Do you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to include more

laws and duties and control most of taxation, while Scotland remains part of the UK?

Majority of Scots support devolution max proposal

71%

24%

5% Agree Disagree

Undecided

71%

25%

5% Agree Disagree Undecided

All All who are certain to vote

Base: All (1,005); All certain to vote (780). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012

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The vast majority of those who support

independence also support devolution max

88%

9%


53%

41%

Oppose independence

Undecided

Oppose devolution max

Support devolution max

Base: All who would vote Yes (292); All who would vote No (418). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012

Q: Do you agree or disagree with a proposal to extend the powers of the Scottish Parliament to include more laws

and duties and control most of taxation, while Scotland remains part of the UK?

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here Party support for independence and devolution max

Base: All (1,005). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012

76%

10%

2%

11%

89%

59%

38%

62%

Party support


Support devolution max

14 14 14 14 14 14

Scots’ perceptions

of the impact of

independence on

their personal

circumstances and

the prospects for

the country as a

whole…

15


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Q: Do you think your personal finances will improve, stay the same or get worse…

Personal finances


34%

33%

30%

In the next five years

Improve

Stay the same

Get worse

Don‟t know – 2%

Net optimism = +4%

22%

35%

36%

7%

If Scotland were to become an independent country

Improve

Get worse Stay the same

Don‟t know

Net optimism = -14%

16


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Q: Do you think your job security will improve, stay the same or get worse…

Job security

Base: All those currently working (581). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+, 27-29 January 2012

18%

60%

19%


Improve

Stay the same

Get worse

Don‟t know – 3%

Net optimism = -1%

19%

50%

26%

5%


Improve

Get worse

Stay the same

Don‟t know

Net optimism = -7%

17


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Q: Do you think economic conditions in Scotland will improve, stay the same or get worse…

Economic conditions in Scotland


34%

23%

39%


Improve

Stay the same

Get worse

Don‟t know – 4%

Net optimism = -5%

34%

13%

45%

8%


Improve

Get worse Stay the same

Don‟t know

Net optimism = -11%

18


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Q: Do you think Scotland’s standing in the world will improve, stay the same or get worse…

Scotland’s standing in the world


39%

38%

17%

6%


Improve

Stay the same

Get worse

Don‟t know

Net optimism = +22%

42%

21%

33%

4%


Improve

Get worse

Stay the same

Don‟t know – 4%

Net optimism = +9%

19 19 19 19 19 19

Alex Salmond Vs.…

Who should lead the ‘No’

campaign?

55% of Scots could not name someone

?

7%

9%

25%

0% 10% 20% 30%

Alistair Darling

Johann Lamont

David Cameron

Of those who could…

Base: All (1,005), all naming someone (450). Data collected among 1,005 Scottish adults 18+,

27-29 January 2012

21 21 21 21 21 21

National identity…

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Q: Which of the following best describes your national identity?

All Born in

Scotland

Support

independence

Oppose

independence

Scottish not

British 24% 28% 46% 8%

More Scottish

then British 30% 34% 31% 26%

Equally Scottish

and British 31% 32% 15% 44%

More British

than Scottish 4% 2% 3% 6%

British not

Scottish 7% 3% 3% 12%


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• This presents the topline results from Scotland

• Results are based on a survey of 1,005 respondents

conducted by telephone

• Fieldwork dates: 27th January – 29th January 2012

• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using

census data; tenure using SHS 2007-2008 data; and

public-private sector employment using Scottish

Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series

data

• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to

computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of

“don‟t know” categories

• Results are based on all respondents (1,005) unless

otherwise stated

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Thank you

This work was carried out in accordance with the requirements of the international quality standard for market research, ISO 20252:2006. © Ipsos MORI

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Public Attitudes Towards Scotland's Constitutional Future