Which Future for Urban Mobility? - PTA and PTO must disrupt themselves or will be disrupted by others

François-Joseph Van Audenhove

Partner, Arthur D. Little

Conférence scientifique internationale 40 ans du métro de Bruxelles

Axes de vie – Nœuds d’échanges

Internationale wetenschappelijke conferentie 40 jaar metro in Brussel

Levensaders – Knooppunten

International Scientific Conference 40 years of Brussels metro

Lines of Life – Nodes of Exchanges

Brussels - 24 and 25 November 2016

Which future for Urban Mobility?

2

The world is becoming

increasingly urban

Urban passenger mobility

demand explodes

Urban goods mobility

demand explodes

9.306

CAGR 2010-50-0,2% p.a.

CAGR 2010-50+1,4% p. a.

2050

33%

67%

2030

8.321

40%

60%

2010

6.896

48%

52%

RuralUrban

Urban and rural population,

2010-2050 [m people %]Urban passenger mobility demand,

2010-2050 [trillions person-km p.a. %]

20502030

43,2

2010

25,8

67,1

2,6x

+55%

+68%

Urban goods mobility demand,

2010-2050 [trillions of ton-km p.a. %]

3,0x

+64%

+83%

205020302010

9,5

17,4

28,5

Source: UN Population Division, Schäfer/Victor 2000, Cosgrove/Cargett 2007, Arthur D. Little

The future of earth will be urban…

… demand for passengers AND goods mobility expected to triple by 2050

Which future for Urban Mobility? – Setting the scene

… Paradigm shift required to satisfy urban mobility demand!

3

Future of Mobility? – Which impact from car sharing solutions?

An average car today

drives 5% of time and

stays 95% of time - Car

sharing will increase

driving time considerably,

thereby removing cars

from the streets

In 2020, the European

car sharing market is

expected to reach 4.5

Bn EUR in revenues

(vs. 1.6 bn in 2016)

1200 shared cars available

in Brussels shortly

(x3 vs. 2015)


Source: Arthur D. Little, Car Sharing market in Europe, 2010-2020

4

Audi Futures (2014):

“Self driving cars

will be present

everywhere in cities

around 2030

They will require 30%

less roads for cars, 30%

less space for parking

and reduce commute

time by 30%”

Future of Mobility? – Which impact from autonomous driving?

Source: Audi Urban Future 2014 – Boston Somerville project. Done by Prof. Parsons (Dean Harvard University for City Planning)


5

Future of Mobility? – Which impact from autonomous driving?

Source: Arthur D. Little analysis, multiples studies


6

Future of Mobility? – Autonomous driving could be one of the most dangerous

disruptor for PT: 30% of SDV users would switch from public transport

Source: Arthur D. Little Autonomous Vehicles Global study, 2016


6,500 respondents in 10 countries (China, France, Italy, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, UK, USA)

Question: For long distance travel, if you would

use an autonomous vehicle mobility system, which

mode of transport would it replace?

Question: For short distance travel, if you would

use an autonomous vehicle mobility system, which

mode of transport would it replace?

Train

Own car

Rental car

Plain

52%

30%

21%

3%Others

13%

Public transport

Own car

Taxi

Bicycle

50%

31%

22%

2%Others

10%

Arthur D. Little study on Autonomous vehicles [August 2016]

If PT incumbents don’t disrupt themselves they will be disrupted by others

7

Future of Mobility? – Which evolution of public transport share in modal split?

Source: McKinsey Resarch institute, “An integrated perspective on the future of mobility”, October 2016

McKinsey & Company

(2016):

“By 2030, 31% (40/130)

of total traffic volume

will be carried out by

modes that do not

exist today”

The share of public

transit is expected to

decrease by 20% vs.

today, meaning limited

growth in coming

years…


8

Arthur D. Little’s Urban Mobility Index, assessing 84 mobility systems worldwide

indicates cities are badly equipped to cope with mobility challenges

Source: Arthur D. Little Urban Mobility Index 2.0, 2014


9Source: Arthur D. Little, Future of Urban Mobility 2.0, 2014

Mobility

visions and

policies do

not cover

requirements

Lack of

system- level

collaboration

and innovation

A lot of mature cities do not have a clear vision and strategy

on how their mobility systems should look like in the future

Lack of integration between transport modes, across different urban

policies (environment, land planning, energy, social policy) and across regions…

leading to sub-optimal outcome in terms of performance

Current mobility systems do not sufficiently respond to evolving customer

needs, combining single steps of the mobility value chain into an

integrated system

Current mobility systems do sufficiently bring together key players to work

jointly to foster lateral learning and develop innovative mobility solutions

What is holding back changes? – Mobility vision and policies not fulfilling

requirements AND lack of system-level collaboration


10

Three strategic directions were identified to shape future urban

mobility systems towards sustainable mobility

Source: Arthur D. Little & UITP, Future of Urban Mobility 2.0, 2014

Baghdad

Hong Kong

SeoulAddis

Ababa

Johannes-burg

Wuhan

Munich

Zurich

Stockholm

Time

Mat

uri

ty

Features:

Innovative thinking

Seamless integration

with “one key” for

citizens

High convenience

Sharing concepts

Emerging

Emerging cities with partly

underdeveloped mobility

systems

Individual

Mature cities with high share

of individual transport in

modals split

Public

Mature cities with high share

of public transport/

walking & cycling

Networked mobility

Integration of all modes

to reduce share of

individual motorized

transport

Establish

Sustainable Core:Invest in sustainable urban

mobility infrastructure

Rethink the System:Shape political agenda

towards shift to public &

sustainability

Network the System:Integration of different

market players and

networking of citizens

Prerequisite Way forwardEstablish your own way

(do not replicate)


Brussels

11

“Rethink the system” – Four dimensions to be considered public

transport authorities to shape mobility ecosystems of tomorrow

Rethink the system – Shape political agenda towards shift to public and sustainability

System-level framework for sustainable mobility

Policy imperatives for

cities of different maturity

stages can be clustered

around 4 dimensions

System-level approach

required: Sustainable

improvement of mobility

performance requires

simultaneous improvement

on each dimensions

… the weakest link will

influence overall mobility

performance

25 strategic imperatives

defined for PTA

Mobility

Supply

(solutions & lifestyles)

Mobility Demand

Management

Public Transport Funding

Visionary Strategy

& Eco-system

1

2 3

4

System-level approach

Source: Arthur D. Little & UITP, Future of Urban Mobility 2.0, 2014

12

Multi-stakeholders

engagement

Long term political

vision

Integrated urban

management approach

Mobility strategy of the city of London

Nantes Metropolis Urban Mobility Plan

City of Vancouver Transportation Plan

Stockholm Urban Mobility Strategy and Roadmap 2050

Metropolitan Transport Plan for North Central Texas 2035

Singapore Transport Master plan 2013 (horizon 2030)

Transport master plan of Vienna

City of Columbus integrated urban management approach

Berlin Integrated Urban Governance Strategy

Intermodal integration

Intermodal mobility stratrgy of the city of Melbourne

The Mobility Strategy of The City of Zurich

Greater Manchester Integrated Transport Strategy

Technology and

Innovation

Mobility vision and strategy of Dubai

City of Lisbon Electric Mobility Strategy

City of Amsterdam Clean Transport Strategy

Characteristics of best practices PTA’s urban mobility visions and

strategies – Illustrations

Rethink the system – Shape political agenda towards shift to public and sustainability

Source: Arthur D. Little

13

PTO also need to adapt their offering to account for evolving customer

needs and increase PT offering attractiveness while keeping costs under control

Rethink the system – Adaptation of PTO commercial offering to increase PT attractiveness


Revision of customer

segmentation

towards behavioral

and attitude based

Review of

customer value

propositions

(product &

services) to

increase

attractiveness

and readability

Develop loyalty & relationship programs to contribute

to mode attractiveness and client stickiness

Introduction of dynamic pricing policy to

influence mobility behavior (MDM)

Redesign of

transport plan

(planning

principles, modal

feeding logic) and

PT solutions

(on demand

transport,

door2door)

Digitalization

of transport

tickets and

sales channel

14

Network the system – Integration towards seamless multimodal networked mobility

“Network the system” – Collaboration between public and private

stakeholders is required to deliver innovative mobility systems

Car OEMs &

other personal

mobility

providers

Logistics and

infrastructure

providers

Telecom and

payment

providers

Energy providers

NGO and think

tanks and

academia

Internet

businesses

Value-added

services

providers

Public Transport

Authorities and

Operators

ICT IntegratorsIndustry

associations

Door-To-Door mobility

solutions: integrated

mobility platform and

application

Innovative schemes for

last mile delivery of

freight

Advanced Driving

Assistance schemes for

self driving vehicles

Clean mobility and

mobility environmental

footprint reduction

…


15

Integrated Mobility Platforms are being established across the world, most

of them with public transit as a backbone. What about Belgium?

Information & Planning

Payment

Booking & Reservation

Functio

-

nalit

ies

Non-motorized TransportStationary Traffic

Motorized Individual TransportPublic Transport

Public Individual TransportModes o

f

transport

Func.

Covered Area

Germany

Modes

Func.

Covered Area

Stuttgart

Modes

Func.

Covered Area

Vienna

Modes

Func.

Covered Area

Germany

Modes

Func.

Covered Area

North America

Modes

1) 69 cities in the US and Canada

2) Stuttgart, Munich, Berlin-Brandenburg,

Rhine-Ruhr, Greater Nuremberg

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Network the system – Integration towards seamless multimodal networked mobility


Wien

Mobil

Lab

Covered Area

Sweden

Func. Modes

16

Future of Urban Mobility? – Key take aways

Urban mobility is a key challenge for cities, the majority of which

are still badly equipped to cope with the mobility challenge

Technical solutions are available to develop superior mobility systems; main

root causes of poor performance are suboptimal mobility policy and

lack of system-level innovation and collaboration

The future of mobility is about disruption – If public transits

incumbents don’t disrupt themselves they will be disrupted by others

There is still a window of opportunity for PTA and PTO to shape

tomorrow’s urban mobility systems with PT as a backbone by working

with each other’s and with new market players… but there is urgency

What does it take to make it happen? It needs vision, creativity,

courage, and entrepreneurship to turn the mobility paradigm towards

full integration

17

Appendix: Introduction to Arthur D. Little

Agenda

18

Arthur D. Little is recognized for its ability to help clients linking strategy and innovation

to achieve successful business transformation

What clients achieve...What we bring....

Deep industry,

technology and functional

expertise

1

Innovation in our DNA –

in our working style,

approaches and results

2

Managing networks of

expertise – funders,

scientists, entrepreneurs

4

3 Side-by-side with our clients

– at all levels

5 Expertise in

transformational change

and strategy

Introduction to Arthur D. Little’s Travel & Transportation practice

UNDERSTAND

Future trends

and

changes in

ecosystems

BUILD

Innovation

capabilities,

creative solutions

& business

models

SHAPE

Ecosystems

and your

company

continuously

Anticipate! Innovate! Transform!

19

We help our clients to understand and act on key strategic and operational challenges

facing the industry to deliver impactful transformation

Strategy

Operations &

Systems

Organization

& Resources

Future of

Mobility

1

Customer

Experience

2

Commercial

offering

redesign

3

Ancillary

commercial

revenues

4

Tendering

strategy and

support

5

Future of

Operations

6

Value based

risk

management

7

Asset

Management

8

Safety

Management

& Safety

Culture

9

Punctuality/

regularity

management

10

Governance

& Financing

11

Strategic

competence

management

12

Organization

effectiveness

& efficiency

13

Value IT

14

Procurement

Excellence

15

Arthur D. Little Service Offering – non exhaustive


20

Source: Arthur D. Little, available at www.adl.com. * in collaboration with the UITP ** in collaboration with Michelin Challenge Bibendum Open Lab

2014* 2014 2015** 2015 2015

2015* 2015 2016 2016 2016

Leading edge sectorial insights: Arthur D. Little continuously monitor sectorial trends to

envision the future of the mobility industry

Recent publications NON EXHAUSTIVE


21

In 2010, Arthur D. Little launched in its Urban Mobility Lab to support cities and

companies in understanding and shaping urban mobility ecosystems

“The Future of Urban Mobility Lab is Arthur D. Little’s

contribution to tackle the urban mobility challenge.

Arthur D. Little aims to use its Future Lab to support cities

and nations in shaping the extended mobility ecosystems of

tomorrow and as a catalyzer to enable and facilitate an

open dialogue between urban mobility stakeholders. ”

– Ignacio Garcia Alves, Arthur D. Little Global CEO

Assessment of mobility performance 1

Definition of nation/regional urban mobility

strategies and roadmaps2

Definition of urban logistics strategies4

Opportunity assessment and development of

innovative mobility ecosystems 3

Business cases for innovative business models and technologies5

Arthur D. Little Future Mobility Lab Future of Mobility Lab Offering


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Contacts:

François-Joseph Van AudenhovePartnerRail & Mobility Competence [email protected]: +32-473-99 83 58