Company of Thought - Debut "Sample Report"

The e-learning think tank with an international perspective.

The Company of Thought (TCoT) Report, June 2015

This Report looks at what’s interesting, new and/or significant in the corporate online

learning technologies industry. The topics covered in this report are:

Innovation/ leading edge e-learning - notably, MOOCs

Developments in learning management systems (LMS)

Augmented reality, virtual reality and other potentially immersive learning tools

Gamification

Personalized e-learning and big data analytics

UK and Continental European e-learning trends

1. Leading edge e-learning

Market news and issues

While demand for information and communication technology (ICT) practitioners

is growing by some three per cent a year, the supply of ICT graduates and skilled

ICT workers is not keeping pace with this level of demand. By 2020, Europe

could face a shortage of almost 900,000 ICT professionals. Education through

massive open online courses (MOOCs) could be a solution for this problem.

Connecting MOOCs with cloud solutions. Here, software-as-a-service (SaaS) is

playing a major role. According to Gartner, SaaS will continue to experience

healthy growth through 2014 and 2015, when worldwide revenues are projected to

reach some $22bn.

Entities such as the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Michael & Susan

Dell Foundation are investing unprecedented amounts in education technology.

Interestingly – and contrary to marketing hype about MOOCs - MOOC students

tend to be drawn from the already privileged in society. Those signing up for

MOOCs tend to be confident, top achievers; not the poor, and certainly not those

who’re unable, for whatever reason, to access the internet. For example, surveys

have found that 79 per cent to 86 per cent of MOOC students already have a

college degree.

Applications Udemy, a company based in California, USA, now has some 6m students and 20m

course enrolments on some 25,000 courses, containing over 5m minutes of video

content. It’s running MOOC initiatives via its website, enabling anyone to teach

and learn online.

TCoT’s view

MOOCs continue to generate huge interest and some controversy - particularly in

the higher education sector but increasingly, too, in the corporate world. There are

now for-profit and not-for-profit MOOCs. Examples include Udacity or Coursera

(for-profits) and university MOOCs such as edX (non-profits).

Key issues for MOOC providers are:

o Do you try to make money – or at least not lose money – from a MOOC?

o If so, how can this be done?

o Do you use the MOOC as part of your marketing activities – to raise

awareness of your products/ services and/or brand?

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And, for those in the higher education sector, if MOOC students tend to be drawn

from the already privileged in society, why do universities invest so much in

MOOC-based free courses for well qualified professionals when undergraduates

pay such high fees?

MOOCs can be useful for providing high quality online continuing professional

development (CPD) for fee-paying professionals, using collaborative learning,

user-created content, and peer evaluation but with minimal accreditation.

Universities could then use the income, resources and experience from the

MOOCs to invest in online teaching and assessment for higher quality and lower

cost undergraduate courses – as well as for free, open courses for schools and the

wider public.

From a corporate perspective, MOOC providers need to link their software with

learning management systems (LMSs) if they’re to penetrate the business-to-

business (B2B) market. Some LMS vendors, for example, Docebo, already have

capacity for administrators to use their LMS to build MOOCs.

You can discover more views about MOOCs from, among others, articles written

by a TCoT member, Bob Little, at:

http://www.mindtools.com/blog/corporate/2014/11/21/moocs-money-marketing-

and-mystery/ and http://www.mindtools.com/blog/corporate/2015/03/20/moocs-

update/

TCoT’s predictions for the future

2015: MOOCs gain greater footfall in the B2B market – notably with an

‘Extended Enterprise’ model as more companies start to offer MOOCs to provide

training for their current or potential customers

2016: MOOCs will be focused on storytelling learning (analyze, understand,

contextualize, create)

2017: Employers will equate MOOC completion certificates with a university

degree

And finally…

A tribute to entrepreneurialism, start-ups and persistence: Udemy’s chairman and co-

founder, Eren Bali, has been quoted as saying, “We created a product with Udemy’s

vision six years ago in Turkey. We failed. So we packed our bags and moved to

Silicon Valley to give it another shot. We were rejected by more than 50 investors

before we launched the company in the Valley. But through it all, we didn’t give up

because we believed in the power of the internet to change how people learn. We

learned from the challenges we faced and eventually our hard work paid off.”

2. Learning Management Systems

Technology issues

Security is tied to cloud-based platforms, even though most vendors use Amazon

or Rackspace.

Mobile bandwidth, data plans, connectivity whether WiFi or 3G/4G

Internet infrastructure - it’s not just specific continents (for example, Australia has

big issues in some areas)

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Adopting future technology such as virtual reality (VR) - and will it truly take off

for e-learning consumers?

Video streaming for content into platforms – bandwidth impact

Legacy (on premise) being pushed towards SaaS

Market news and issues

Adobe Captivate Prime LMS is scheduled for release in August. Expect buyers to

buy it, especially 10,000+ users LMS targeting business. At a later date, Adobe

plans to release a system targeting Education - most likely the main focus will be

on Higher Education (HE).

Legacy to SaaS is being pushed throughout the LMS space – especially by Saba

and SumTotal to their customers. Additionally, more vendors are going SaaS only

– including Adobe, Cornerstone OnDemand Learning Cloud, Growth Engineering

and Docebo. Saba wants it to be the same way. Cloud-only vendors in the US

who’re seeking growth outside of the US are eyeing the UK first, then Western

Europe.

Vendors in the UK who’re seeking growth outside of the UK are eyeing the

United States (first), then Asia-Pacific and, third, Western Europe.

Many LMS vendors shy away from Australia due to the employee size of many

companies. That’s a big mistake.

Instructure launches Bridge, its corporate targeted LMS.

Cornerstone OnDemand numbers are shrinking, compared year-to-year (Y2Y) for

this quarter.

A limited number of authoring tools are cloud based.

Blackboard dominates the Middle East HE market. Moodle is second.

TCoT’s view

SaaS rules, although many of the systems are actually PaaS, but consumers can’t

figure that out - so SaaS it is.

Multi-tenant growing (vendors still like to use the word “enterprise”).

There’s huge growth in the LMS market. We’re seeing more vendors entering the

market than leaving. How many of them are truly generating real revenue is open

for interpretation.

Social learning and gamification are growing - especially gamification.

More consumers (buyers) are entering the market. However, they have limited

knowledge.

In the authoring tool industry, the gap continues, with most vendors still staying

desktop.

M-learning content only – that is, it’s best seen on a mobile device and not

laptop/desktop (where m-learning is non-existent).

Social learning platforms (marketing spin) are growing.

The LMS market is splitting into LMS and learning platforms. The difference is in

the reports/analytics.

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TCoT’s predictions for the future (six months)

Adobe Captivate Prime could create a ripple effect, causing some vendors to

change design. The biggest impact hit will be Docebo, since Prime seems similar

in many ways and its target market is similar.

Predictive analysis will increase among LMS vendors.

On/Off synch with mobile in learning platforms.

Growth Engineering’s Genie authoring tool takes off as standalone. It comes with

the LMS too, but standalone will be strong.

Continuation of modern UI across the e-learning industry on various offerings.

Moodle continues its domination of the HE/Edu market.

More vendors entering e-learning – but their focus is LMS/learning platforms, not

any other sector.

Ecosystems continue growth. Some vendors to add performance management

feature sets.

Increase in venture capitalist funding/Angel investors in the market, especially for

LMSs.

3. Augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR) and other potentially

immersive learning tools

Technology issues

For AR, the key technological question will be security and ease of roll-out with

multiple devices. Technology is still being improved, so the final product offering

isn’t yet at the point where solid solutions are on the market. Here and there,

companies are testing out elements as part of e-learning, but full integrations are

rare.

AR platforms include HP’s Aurasma, Layar, Daqri’s 4D Studio and Zappar. They

allow you to create an object (image, text, video, game), which can be shared in

other media, such as e-learning or print. It requires the user to download an AR

reader app before experiencing what’s been created. Zooburst allows you to create

3D interactive pop-up books - a fun addition to more traditional e-learning.

Avaya Live Engage provides an option, intended for the corporate sector, where

an office environment can be modeled and course participants attend with their

avatar. Learners can have side conversations and ask questions, as if they were

live at an event.

Market news and issues

AR entered the market around the same time as smart phones but is yet to find a

stronghold in mainstream e-learning. Uncertainty about how and where to apply

AR is stopping decision makers from investing in AR-based solutions.

Many companies worried about security aren’t keen on using smart phones,

tablets and bring your own device (BYOD). Until this changes, AR will be

hampered as an enabler of learning.

AR platform providers are focusing on the marketing field. Only a few have

identified e-learning as an opportunity.

Solution pricing is a major issue. Prices for customized developments start at five

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figure sums and usually end up in six figures to tailor the solution.

Google Glass came and went. Facebook put up $2bn to buy Oculus. Google has

invested $542m into Magic Leap and Microsoft won’t be left behind with its

development of HoloLens.

Global market research firm Markets and Markets’ March 2014 report

‘Augmented Reality & Virtual Reality Market’ predicts the compound annual

growth rate of AR to be some 15 per cent – making AR a $1bn market by 2018.

AR gives the option to blend holographic reality and sensor devices to reality to

intensify the experience of reality. Aurasma, the AR development arm of Hewlett

Packard, identifies 20 per cent of its users as educators or students. This suggests

we can expect to see more AR applications enriching students’ education in the

years to come.

Digital Capital predicts the market for AR and VR globally could reach $150bn

by 2020.

Research firm Kzero has looked at VR market penetration. It has found:

Innovators / Hardcore Gamers: 2.5 per cent of the general population. It’s

the youngest age group of all adopters and the highest social class. Innovators

are the gatekeepers of promoting new ideas.

Early Adopters / Light Gamers: 13.5 per cent of the general population.

They have a closer social structure than Innovators - so they’re ‘locals’ – with

the ability to act as opinion formers across all other adoption types.

Early Majority / Kids, Teens & Tweens: 34 per cent of the general

population. They interact frequently with their peers (locally and globally), so

they’re an important link in the diffusion process.

In VR, game design engines such as Unity and Unreel are offering free-to-use

options, thus allowing designers to learn the craft.

Authoring software Ity Studio now allows you to create a 3D setting, with

characters based on pre-defined templates, and structured to design role-playing

scenario-based training. Its pricing model has been improved and the product now

integrates with Captivate, Articulate and Lectora.

Major software houses, including Microsoft, HP and Google, along with social

media giants LinkedIn and Facebook seem to want a piece of the AR/ VR/

immersive experience pie. What exactly they want to do with it isn’t yet clear.

Applications

Healthcare: Every month there are new start-ups looking at integrating sensor-

based smart wearables with elements of AR and, in some cases, VR. Samsung

Gear has entered the market. Oculus VR is still being improved, but more

applications are being created to use on these immersive devices. Their

application is seen as useful in healthcare, where benefits of first-hand experience

are being found to calm patients with autism and dementia by revisiting known

environments. In learning, some companies are exploring how abstract concepts

can be experienced through first-hand experience, such as the effect of a particular

cream or lotion in beautician and dermatological training. Medical training is also

looking at the potential to use these technologies to teach surgery skills.

Healthcare: VR solutions for onboarding are under development in some of the

UK’s NHS hospitals to help speed up locum staff’s familiarity with hospital wards

and their procedures. Through a virtual replica of the hospital, staff can complete

the necessary compliance training while discovering essential services’ locations.

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Business Recruitment: PWC in Hungary took their recruitment online through a

VR experience which tested candidates’ competency and taught them about

regular working life in various teams in the company.

Retail: Norwegian virtual world designers Attensi Simulations said that the

improvement in behavior in real life from a number of their clients is ‘becoming

too embarrassing to quote’ – showing that compliance and customer focused

behavior has improved by over 300 per cent. They designed solutions for retail

stores to train staff on issues including customer engagement and store

cleanliness.

Hotel and Leisure: The American Hotel and Lodging Education Institute created

a 3D hotel environment for staff to learn essential hospitality skills. Players move

around to find keys lying around, broken or hazardous items, wet floors, blocked

fire exits, non-compliance with ADA regulations, suspicious activity, or signs of

child trafficking. A guest experience score shows how well the players are

improving guest satisfaction and safety. The game also uses a timer to raise the

stress level and motivate action. Social media (including Facebook and Trip

Advisor comments) is integrated into the game experience, providing clues to

solve the guest experience challenges.

Insurance: Zurich Insurance has invested in an initial pilot with mobile AR

application provider, Aurasma. It’s now rolling out leadership training to 10,000

managers in 170 countries through AR where their project management, people

skills and coaching are the core topics of training challenges.

Manufacturing: IBM has been a long-time adopter of VR technology, using a

number of combinations of platforms: Active Worlds, Forterra Olive, Second

Life, OpenSims, Unity 3D and Torque. It has also used AR for an internal

communications event and has employees across the world engage in a challenge

of uncovering code through collaboration.

TCoT’s view

Both VR and AR technologies were developed for the gaming and movies

industries, where they work well. They’re being adapted for other uses in daily

life and work. There are amazing early-stage platforms and apps – as well as

lots of start-ups but, at present, VR/AR still feels a bit premature. Corporate

applications of this technology globally are only starting out.

The AR world expo is in its sixth edition in the US and, this year, has teamed

up with VR providers and smart wearable technology companies. It’s the

success and potential of smart devices - whether wearable or handheld – that’s

driving the development of both AR and VR for learning purposes.

From an e-learning perspective, virtual worlds aren’t new. Typically, the

design and application of these tools requires significant investment, which

makes multiple applications less attractive to corporate buyers. VR’s

popularity waned with the demise of the hyped Second Life from Linden

Labs. The emergence of gamification and the potential of immersive

technologies such as Oculus RV, Sony and Samsung devices is driving this

trend back towards virtual experiences.

AR should be bigger than VR but both will have a place in e-learning. Watch

out for the development of a holographic screen and keyboard, sensory and

neurological trackers to follow what our responses are, along with other

gadgets to measure performance. This is what established software houses and

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new start-ups around the world are testing.

VR is currently more popular because it facilitates the creation of a safe

environment for learning. Over the past two years, creating virtual worlds and

replicas of a customer’s building are back in vogue, with more 2D and 3D

learning experiences being developed - mainly with game design companies.

Recent VR applications include on-boarding, recruitment and simulations,

with future growth for role-playing-based training.

Expect to see more examples of VR applications in corporate e-learning, such

as virtual worlds, especially those focusing on office-based and customer-

facing related soft skills. Industries using this form of learning will also

expand - and newer generations of workers will drive this evolution towards

trying it out in a game-like virtual world with instant feedback on

performance.

Implementing holographics is coming – and offers exciting opportunities.

4. Gamification

A definition of gamification: The application of game mechanics, game dynamics and

game theory to non-game situations, such as e-learning.

Technology issues

E-learning organizations are adding game designers to their teams to offer more

game-like solutions but in-house development teams often don’t have the

headcount to bring these resources into the team and therefore continue with

traditional methods of e-learning - with mixed results and outcomes.

LMSs and authoring tools are still linear and template-driven in their approach,

which isn’t always suitable for impactful gamification. However, most

gamification platform providers will integrate seamlessly, or with some

modification, to Moodle and other LMSs.

The only open source technology on the market to date is Mambo.io, which only

entered the market this year and requires some technical ability to make it work on

internal systems. BadgeOS has been around for longer, but only provides a

badging-related reward system. This can be useful for short-term reward but not

necessarily for long-term engagement.

Instructional designers and e-learning companies don’t always support content

gamification because it delays the speed to create solutions.

Many e-learning developers are unfamiliar with the authoring tools for

gamification. So, they’re reluctant to move to Unity, Unreal and other similar

tools. Growth Engineering, the gamified LMS platform provider, has published a

gamified authoring tool. It’s available as a standalone tool and within the LMS.

Security and linking to external sources is often seen as an objection to rolling out

gamification platforms - but most platform providers will work within the

constraints of the IT requirements.

Compliance with the SCORM standards isn’t always achievable in gamification

due to the nature of the files - but they’d fit well in an xAPI or Tin Can approach.

Gamification to drive behavior change and collecting big data/ analytics on

workforce behavior is raising some questions from workers’ councils in some

European countries. To date, no organizations have stopped an initiative for this,

but some projects and agreements about data have been adapted in some cases.

The e-learning think tank with an international perspective.

Market news and issues

Many large organizations in the post-recession era are still operating with a small

set of resources - and the impression is that gamification will require a big budget.

The first open source platform was launched this year (Mambo.io). Enterprise

application giant, SAP, is also entering the industry with its platform. This will

give corporate decision makers choices and, for those already using the SAP

system, an easy entry into the market.

The challenge will be that the roll-out of a gamification platform is strongly based

on user-centric design and, hence, many software providers will need to link with

gamification designers to make the solution deliver on its ROI.

The market for gamification is still young and in different stages across the world.

The more mature markets can be found in North America. Early adopters are

starting to engage in projects in EMEA - and APAC is considered a major

opportunity for growth by most providers. The understanding of what

gamification is varies, especially in the mind of the organizational buyer. For

some it includes serious games, simulations and game elements applied to

business processes and applications. For others it’s strictly the latter. Providers

tend only to be able to serve one of these options and are relied on by clients to be

the educator in the process also. This approach entails an element of risk when the

business objectives for the initiative may be force-fitted into the solution

providers’ platform or service limitations. Equally, not every platform provider is

a great educator.

The key driver for gamification in L&D has been the bad press e-learning has had

in terms of effectiveness and engagement, combined with the hiring of a

generation of people who’ve grown up with games as part of their daily life. It’s

said that the average 18 year old has played over 10,000 hours of computer, tablet

and smartphone games. This is longer - in time - than they’ve spent studying in

traditional education. The gaming population is also increasing in average age to

the over 35s and even starting to slant to being female-dominated, according to the

latest statistics of UKIE in the UK. So while the demand for gamification may be

on the increase and the reasoning behind it largely driven by the end-user, the

actual implementation is in its early days.

H2T has a gamified e-learning platform, called Curatr. This seems to have found a

stronghold in the MOOC sphere with education providers of various sizes. The

model links closely with social learning and integrates well with forums and social

media.

Applications

Airline industry: KLM Royal Dutch Airlines has launched a gamified online

onboarding application for its new recruits in KLM IT and people transferring in

from other regions. The objective is that you fill your suitcase with important, as

well as basic, knowledge about how the organization works and so on. As a

learner you’re given missions to complete, such as getting your ID card – which

involves interacting with different teams to make it happen. Progress is measured

in the on-boarding app.

IT sector: SAP had similar thoughts for teams of people looking to learn iOS app

development, so it developed the G learning challenge. This challenge had

components taking place both online and offline in collaboration with colleagues

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over eight weeks. Employees were given the choice to learn by reading or to take

part in the challenge. The average age of the participant was 37. Between 100 and

300 people signed up for it; 95 per cent completed and 50 per cent had a working

app at the end.

Financial services: Rabobank invented iQuest to support financial advisors

through changes in regulations, processes, products, channels and customers.

They decided to make participation voluntary and played heavily on the curiosity

motivation of learners. Currently 50 per cent of the target audience has used the

gamified learning app and, of those starting, 66 per cent complete all challenges -

and rated the app at 8.5 out of 10.

Financial services: Unicredit Bank gamified its leadership program for high

potentials in CEE with a banking challenge. Multinational teams were formed and

took on running a bank in a virtual environment. The decisions and practices of

other teams affected their outcome. The aim was to stimulate collaboration across

cultures and also to learn about aspects of risk and compliance.

Food and drink: Heineken gamified its Capability Academy and, to reinforce

some of the lessons, also created a board game.

TCoT’s view

The appetite for gamification solutions in the corporate and educational L&D

sector is on the increase. Increasingly, examples are delivering above and beyond

their expectations when well designed. Equally, some of the projects launched are

also being revised or cut short due to bad management, wrong objectives or non-

existing objectives and not taking the target audience into account.

Since gamification is largely user-centric in design, it will be the users demanding

more of this style of learning that will make this approach more mainstream.

Some organizations in the USA see gamification as something they now consider

the norm, having started with it in the early 2000s. However, in EMEA, the early

adopters only have their first or second implementations behind them - so a lot of

growth is still expected here. APAC is following in EMEA’s footsteps.

Development among social media platforms, such as Facebook buying Oculus

Rift and LinkedIn recently acquiring Lynda.com, indicate that there’s a lot more

growth and consolidation to come in this young industry. The link between social

connections and learning has been reinforced through gamification, which actively

encourages collaboration and sharing - and often acts as the catalyst for social

learning.

Although many companies use their millennials as the driver for choosing

gamification as part of their learning strategies, there’s growing evidence that

gamification equally appeals to generation X and baby boomers.

With gamification education now existing on a number of MOOC platforms

(Coursera and iVersity), many learning design professionals will learn or take on

board the principles and encourage further spreading of gamified learning

solutions.

The advent of gamified or gamification-enabled authoring tools will be the tipping

point for mass acceptance. Game designers will become more important members

of an L&D team but few will be willing to work within the constraints of existing

e-learning. Learning and instructional designers will need to continue to adapt and

create more engagement.

With concepts such as the quantified self and the Internet of Everything coming to

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the fore, learning will become increasingly personalized. The introduction of

devices such as smart watches and neuro-tracking will be key in making

gamification ‘mainstream’ - not necessarily as tools which deliver learning but as

tools which track learners’ adoption of the learning at multiple levels, from simple

data entry to neurological changes.

The prediction by Gartner that 80 per cent of gamification interventions would fail

has been over-estimated. The complete reporting of all projects doesn’t exist but,

from speaking to clients and at conferences, it’s clear that many corporates are

still only starting to think about buying solutions.

5. Personalized e-learning and big data analytics

Technology issues

The amount of enterprise data, and the rate at which it’s being accumulated, is

rising exponentially. The proliferation of mobile devices, artificial intelligence,

web analytics, social media and other types of emerging technologies is creating

new data streams that only add to traditional data stores, such as transaction

records and financial data.

LMSs need to be able to provide statistical data related to learners’ learning

habits, because this opens the door to developing true personal learning

environments (PLE).

PLEs impact all levels of e-learning. We’re able to track the learner’s journey

throughout the entire learning experience, so it’s now possible to focus on her/his

requirements. There are the challenges of storing and accessing large data sets, but

the bigger challenge lies in bringing together and interpreting disparate types of

data. The value of big data is in extracting actionable insights through the deep

analysis of that data.

Market news and issues

In July 2014, the European Commission outlined a new strategy on big data,

supporting and accelerating the transition towards a data-driven economy in

Europe. The data-driven economy will stimulate research and innovation on data

while leading to more business opportunities and an increased availability of

knowledge and capital, in particular for SMEs, across Europe.

According to the study ‘Worldwide Big Data Technology and Services, 2012–

2015 Forecast’ conducted by IDC, big data technology and services are expected

to grow worldwide at a compound annual growth rate of 40 per cent – about seven

times that of the ICT market overall.

TCoT’s view

Stakeholders are realizing that market success is connected to having a personal

approach to the customer. People are sharing information. Data analytics in e-learning

is a circular process. Based on data that we get from learners, we can forecast their

future activities. There are a number of benefits that big data offers to e-learning, all

of which have the power to impact the future of e-learning and revolutionize the way

we analyze and assess the e-learning experience.

Getting learners to use their own experiences to fuel their learning increases their

enjoyment of the learning. They feel more connected to, and engaged with, the subject

matter and, so, are more likely to retain it.

The e-learning think tank with an international perspective.

Personalized e-learning and data analytics play major roles in tracking the learning

results and ROI.

As wearable technology gains more traction in our everyday lives, from fitness bands

and smart watches to Google Glass, it’s starting to take hold in the education market.

For example, users can wear sensors to collect heartbeat. Through that, we can

monitor each learner’s level of stress. All this information can be displayed on

wearable devices and can be fed to the LMS, so that questions can be automatically

personalized for each user.

While wearable technology is in its infancy, analysts at Morgan Stanley believe it will

become a $1.6tr business in the near-future. Most of these gadgets are believed to be

related to health and fitness. Countries investing the most in this form of mobile

learning include the USA, Japan, South Korea, China and India. However, it’s likely

that the major players in this field in 2017 will be China, USA, Indonesia, India and

Brazil.

6. UK and European e-learning trends

Market news and issues

Corporate e-learning is a function of learning and development (L&D)

expenditure and, while it’s bucked the overall downward trend in corporate L&D

expenditure, that pattern is still mixed across the EU with a number of almost

contradictory trends at work.

Europe is growing in its uptake of e-learning, but its growth is patchy. Training

levies - as in France - can stimulate demand; confidentiality issues in Germany

can dampen demand, EU structural funds in many states have laid some

foundations but, overall, the fragility of economic performance in many states

contributes to the mixed picture.

TCoT’s view

Investment in acquisitions of e-learning and edtech companies will accelerate as

publishers from Europe and large (principally US) technology vendors and telcos

(especially in the emerging markets of Africa and Asia Pacific) get more

interested in the global learning market. This is driven significantly, but not

exclusively, by the growth in demand for Higher Education (as ‘The Economist’

magazine put it recently, ‘the whole world wishes to go to university’).

MOOCs are a glacier, not a tsunami or avalanche. The spill-over into corporate

learning has not been huge to date but, with new iterations such as VOOCs (from

Virtual College) addressing vocational skills, other models will emerge leveraging

the desire for low cost online learning, as already proven by Udemy and a B2B re-

focused Lynda.com.

Compliance will not go away. It will remain as a driver for e-learning adoption in

the SME market but the learner experience will change with compliance-led

games (using simulation and one day virtual reality) along with adaptive learning

and engaging video, which will mitigate and alleviate the repetitive sheep-dip

compliance experience so detested by many learners.

Extended enterprise learning solutions integrating supply chains, customers and

eco-systems will stimulate market growth for learning technologies.

The lessons from marketing automation will be increasingly applied to learning

platforms and environments.

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The UK along with an increasing part of the European training industry will close

the e-learning adoption gap on North America, as the real threat of Lynda.com

(and others) becomes apparent to an industry that hasn’t embraced e-learning

wholeheartedly.

Certification (and regular re-certification) will grow as quickly as the demand for

qualifications. Badges and micro-credentialing evidence of competencies will be

hugely important, while merely recording hours of CPD will ossify as an

approach. Platforms such as Accredible, and MyShowcase from My Knowledge

Map are well placed in this market - along with a newly re-configured LinkedIn,

which will also be used for evidencing learning and competences.

CPD as we now know it will fade. Already the Solicitors’ Regulation Authority

(SRA) is moving from a CPD-led to a competency-led approach. The leading

standards body, IMS, is moving in the direction of competence-based education

and training (CBE) with its Digital Credentialing initiative.

A new generation of assessment technologies, including effective remote

proctoring (‘invidulation’) from companies such as ProctorU and Comprobo will

lead to a change in how exams and tests are taken, allowing for location-

independent online exams and tests.

Big data and analytics are coming, with Skillsoft, IBM and others now paying

significant attention to the market potential.

New starts and new entrants are proliferating in edtech and e-learning - and

London is growing in dominance as this edtech innovation hub across Europe in

an increasingly internationalizing market. London is increasingly the go-to

destination for ambitious European edtech companies seeking funding and an

incubation eco-system. This is further supported by London hosting the Learning

Technologies events (in summer and winter), an ever-internationalizing BETT and

the fast growing and influential edtech Europe event.

There’s a great deal of potential investor activity with many new start- ups

targeting Higher Education in particular. In contrast, there’s uncertainty in Further

Education among investors and a schools market that’s not seeing investor

attention.

The corporate e-learning market is receiving considerable investor attention and is

now well placed for a growth spurt in the UK and a robust internationalization by

the UK’s national e-learning champions.

Compelling propositions are still needed in the workplace skills and

apprenticeship space, as the FELTAG fallout continues to impact Further

Education.

Europe is becoming more attractive to US companies and London is the location

for them to set up.

The US still leading the way in innovation and start-ups in edtech and e-learning

but an increasingly crowded market is causing more US vendors to consider

internationalizing their offer.

Next generation US vendors, such as Instructure and ProctorU, are targeting the

HE market, along with a newly invigorated Blackboard.

Many US vendors, such as Xyleme, have been paying attention to the UK and

Europe for some years and are making steady gains in the market with their

LCMS.

A new wave of US LRS vendors will soon be arriving and forming partnerships in

the UK.

The e-learning think tank with an international perspective.

UK companies are looking beyond Europe to the Middle East and Asia Pacific

markets.

UK companies are really internationalizing at last. This is, in part, due to

consolidation of the UK’s industry and some real (and long overdue) national

champions emerging, led by the Learning Technologies Group with its LEO

brand, Kallidus and the Virtual College.

Several UK and EU companies are performing well in the US market. Stand-out

performers are Dublin-based LearnUpon, whose LMS has achieved considerable

market penetration; the US/ Italian LMS vendor Docebo, CG Kineo and

Webanywhere with its Moodle/Totara offer. Other UK vendors will take US

investment and establish a US presence so, while the US remains in the lead in its

adoption of technology in corporate learning, the traffic is not all one way.

From Europe, CrossKnowledge (now part of a much larger group) and the French

national champion, Cegos, have been actively internationalizing their businesses

for some years. Recently, some Irish, Spanish and Italian e-learning vendors have

been successful in internationalizing their businesses. Docebo is a shining

example of this, as is eXact learning solutions. Others, such as the Dutch LMS

vendor aNewSpring, will soon be emerging from their domestic market.

Learning is globalizing and EDTRIN is an interesting Australian /Singapore / UK

venture that’s seeking to bridge the market opportunity for European companies in

the Asia Pacific market. This may be of significant interest to a number of

aspiring ambitious e-learning and learning technologies organizations.

About The Company of Thought (TCoT) and this report

Welcome to the inaugural report from The Company of Thought (TCoT).

TCoT is an international Think Tank which aims to help identify, analyze and generally shed

light on developments in the corporate online learning industry worldwide – and discuss their

implications for business. Its Mission is ‘to report and comment on trends within the

corporate online learning technologies industry worldwide, independent of any vested

interests’. As such, this report contains the informed thoughts, views and opinions of TCoT’s

members. While, hopefully, authoritative, its contents should not be the sole determinant of

any business decision.

TCoT’s global headquarters is in the ancient city of St Albans in the UK. It has outposts

around the world, notably in California, USA. Its founding principals are Craig Weiss

(California, USA), David Patterson (Sheffield, UK) and Bob Little (St Albans, UK).

Contributors to this report include: Iva Matasic (Zagreb, Croatia), An Coppens (UK/ Sweden/

Belgium), Craig Weiss (California, USA), David Patterson (Sheffield, UK), Graeme

Coomber (Darlington, UK) and Bob Little (St Albans, UK).

You can find out more about TCoT, its services and its members from: Bob Little, 23

Sherwood Avenue, St Albans, Herts, AL4 9QJ, UK (tel +44(0)1727 860405; email

bob.little@dial.pipex.com)