Diffusion, Adopters and Innovation

DIFFUSION

Diffusion

Process by which A new idea is communicated Or spread in a social group And becomes an innovation

Diffusion is a type of social change Diffusion is behind “implementation”

Diffusion

M-payment is not yet diffused in Mexico, so it's still a good idea, not an innovation!

Diffusion

Herorat.org: training and using rats to sniff landmines in Africa is an innovation! (training process, adoption scheme)

Innovation idea #21

All innovation requires a diffusion process.

Social change is the result of this process.

Otherwise, it's just a good idea.

Social change

Social change

Social change

Videos

SUV / mobile phone videos

Innovation idea #22

The designed environment has an important role in social change: it creates

opportunities and incentivates certain

behaviours over others

Change: co-causality

From social to individual: Generation of new ideas

From individual to social: Evaluation of new ideas

Diffusion

“The process by which new ideas become real solutions”

Solutions available to social groups Adopters' evaluation Adoption or rejection decisions

Diffusion

Diffusion is uncertain: Lack of predictability, structure, and information

Diffusion

Most new ideas/products are not diffused and adopted rapidly: Even when they have obvious, proven advantages

Innovation idea #23

The diffusion rate of a new idea is only marginally related

to how good or bad it is. Many other issues can

become crucial: politics, culture, “timing”, etc

Diffusion

“Perceived newness” It matters little whether or not an idea is objectively new

$500 dollars

Diffusion curves

Sigmoid function S-shape curves

time: cumulative adoption

number of adopters

Diffusion curves

‘Tipping point’ At about 10 to 25% adoption*

‘Inflection point’ At about 75 to 90% adoption*

Technology clusters Hard to distinguish start/end of diffusion

time: cumulative adoption

types of adopters

The S-shape curve

Once a few adopt, they tell others about the innovation and the number of adopters per unit of time takes off

Until the market potential decreases, influence becomes redundant and adoption slows down again

Critical mass

Point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation’s further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining

That means: “Diffusion continues no matter what”

the foundation sold 55 million bracelets in 2005, says www.livestrong.org

“Rubber bracelets are today's version of bumper stickers, buttons, ribbons or flags”http://www.sunjournal.com/story/271282-3/bsection/Livestrong_bracelets_began_healthy_trend/

Adopter categories

‘Innovators’Early adoptersMass adoptersLate adoptersLaggards

Innovation idea #24

People fall into different adopter categories for

different types of products.

Clichés are not useful: aim to understand and design for your target adopters

Enabling strategies

Target opinion leaders Shape individual’s perceptions of the

innovation Target early adopters first, but do not

focus only on them Provide incentives for adoption Promote negotiation and interpretations Any design strategies?

Different external influences

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91time

adop

ters

Different aggregate influence

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91time

adop

tersVarying critical mass,

same end result

Constant critical mass,different end result

Critical Mass of Head-Up Displays?

Characteristics of innovations

Relative advantage Perceived as a better solution

Compatibility Perceived as consistent with values, experience, needs

Complexity Perceived as difficult to understand and use

Trialability Experimented with on a limited basis

Observability Results are visible to others

Innovation idea #25

Evidence shows that innovations that diffuse rapidly have:

- greater perceived advantages- greater compatibility

- greater trialability- greater observability

- less complexity

Perceived advantages

Trialability

Observability

Compatibility

Compatibility

Complexity

Uncertainty

Adopters’ experience Influence perception of next

innovation Competitors Non-intended uses Social and cultural events Reinterpretations or re-

inventions

Re-invention

Degree to which an innovation Is changed or modified By third-party (users, mkt, competition) During diffusion And implementation

At least some degree of re-invention occurs at the implementation stage For many innovations And by many adopters

Reinvention