Rob Symes; Predict or Die Presentation

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From the UK Recruiter Technology Showcase Event June 2014. Rob Symes of Outside View

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SCIENCE + BUSINESS

WHAT IS OUR STORY

5 YEARS AGO

5 YEARS AGO

2008

5 YEARS AGO

2008

Within 12 months I becameManpower’s top biller

5 YEARS AGO

2008

Within 12 months I becameManpower’s top biller

2010Within a year I co-founded

WINS BLUE CHIP CLIENTS LIKE BSKYB, UK BROADBAND, PCCW, TEAM TELECOM,

THE CLOUD

FRUSTRATION

FRUSTRATIONBUSINESS WAS FOCUSSING ON THE

WRONG THINGS

SO I GOT ON A PLANE AND WENT LOOKING FOR ANSWERS

SO I GOT ON A PLANE AND WENT LOOKING FOR ANSWERS

NEW YORK

PARIS

SAN

FRANCISCO

WHEN I GOT BACK TO LONDON I MADE A DOCUMENTARY ABOUT

WHAT I’D LEARED

DATA IS THE NEW OIL

IF WE ARE WHAT WE MEASURE,WHY NOT MEASURE WHAT WE

WANT TO BECOME

IF WE ARE WHAT WE MEASURE,WHY NOT MEASURE WHAT WE

WANT TO BECOME

COLLECT

UNDERSTAND

PREDICT

IF WE ARE WHAT WE MEASURE,WHY NOT MEASURE WHAT WE

WANT TO BECOME

COLLECT

UNDERSTAND

PREDICT

DATA MINING,MACHINE LEARNING

STATISTICS, DASHBOARDS,VISUALISATION

IF WE ARE WHAT WE MEASURE,WHY NOT MEASURE WHAT WE

WANT TO BECOME

COLLECT

UNDERSTAND

PREDICT

DATA MINING,MACHINE LEARNING

STATISTICS, DASHBOARDS,VISUALISATION

MOST BUSINESSGET TO HERE

IF WE ARE WHAT WE MEASURE,WHY NOT MEASURE WHAT WE

WANT TO BECOME

COLLECT

UNDERSTAND

PREDICT

DATA MINING,MACHINE LEARNING

STATISTICS, DASHBOARDS,VISUALISATION

MOST BUSINESSESGET TO HERE

THIS IS WHEREELITE PERFORMANCEHAPPENS

STRUCTURED DATA OTHER

UNSTRUCTURED DATA

DECISIONENGINE

INSIGHTS VISUALS

CRMLinkedinFacebook

twitter

EMAILPHONEONLINE

PIPELINE PREDICTIONELITE PERFORMANCE

PREDICTIVE LEAD SCORING

DASHBOARDS

MACHINE LEARNING

WHICH IS THE WOMAN?

GROUND TRUTH

LEARNING PREDICTION

HISTORICAL EXAMPLES

FEATUREEXTRACTION

TRAINED ALGORITHM

SOME NEW DATA

Girl Boy

PREDICT OR DIE

FIVE TIMES BETTERTHAN AVERAGE

5X

WHAT IS SUCCESS?

BIAS

BIASOVERCONFIDENCE

BIASOVERCONFIDENCE

FALSE CONSENSUS

BIASOVERCONFIDENCE

FALSE CONSENSUS

CONFIRMATION BIAS

BIASOVERCONFIDENCE

FALSE CONSENSUS

CONFIRMATION BIAS

LOSS AVERSION

WHAT CAN YOU CONTROL?

PROBABILITIESNOT OPPORTUNITIES

25 WEEKS TO SELL A HOUSE

20 WEEKS NOT TOSELL A HOUSE

SAME EFFORT

DIFFERENT RESULT

PROPERTY COMPANIESRARELY SELL OVER 50%OF THEIR INSTRUCTED

PROPERTIES

PREDICTION

AFTER ONE WEEK, THE OUTSIDE VIEW

CAN PREDICT WHICHHOUSES WILL SELL

AND WHICH WILL NOT

THAT SAVES

19 WEEKSWORTH OF EFFORT

ELITE RECRUITER?

QUALITY NOT

QUANTITY

LET MACHINES WORK

THANK YOU

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